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Social Security Trust Fund Insolvent By 2033, Really?
Each year, the Social Security Board of Trustees releases a report which analyzes the current and projected financial health of Social Security and Medicare. We should all care about what the annual reports say because these programs provide essential benefits for seniors. The latest and previous reports have issued dire warnings of coming benefit shortfalls.
On The Economy, Wages, Interest Rates & The Yield Curve
1. GDP Growth Slowed in 1Q, But Beat Expectations 2. US Businesses Raise Pay at Fastest Pace in 11 Years 3. Fed Meeting Today, Tomorrow – No Rate Hike Expected 4. What You Should Know About the Flattening Yield Curve 5. The Most Interesting Political Article I Read Recently
Debt Ceiling Deadline Moved Up to August From November
Given all the unusual factors attached to the current need to increase the debt ceiling, and the very unhealthy political climate, I could see a lot of turbulence in the markets just ahead. In a worst-case scenario, a debt ceiling crisis could even result in a new recession.
Surprise: Fed Calls On Government To Spend More Money
1. 3Q Gross Domestic Product Rises More Than Expected 2. Fed Seems to Admit That ZIRP Didn’t Work as Expected 3. President Trump Willing to Increase Domestic Spending 4. Time for the Fed to “Normalize” Monetary Policy 5. “Handing Down Your Legacy” Still Available For Free
Another Strong Jobs Report, But Economy Remains Weak
1. July Jobs Report Stronger Than Expected, 2nd Month in a Row
2. The Real Unemployment Rate Went Up To 9.7% in July
3. The Worst Economic Expansion in 30 Years Continues
4. Maybe It’s Time to Dump the U-3 Unemployment Rate
5. Special Report: How to Maximize Your 401(k) - Advanced
Pew Study: American Middle Class is Steadily Shrinking
1. Pew Research: American Middle Class is Steadily Shrinking 2. Pew’s 5 Takeaways About the American Middle Class 3. American Middle Class Also Losing Ground Financially 4. Wealth Gap Between Upper, Middle & Lower Incomes 5. Political Implications of the Shrinking Middle Class
Problems The Media Ignored In The April Jobs Report
Today we’ll start with a look at last Friday’s unemployment report for April. If you read the mainstream media accounts, it was fantastic – the official unemployment rate fell to 5.4%, the lowest level since 2007. But as usual, if we dig into the internals of the report, we find that the results were much less than desired.
Why Food Prices Are Soaring, Likely To Continue
IN THIS ISSUE: 1. Consumer Food Prices Are Skyrocketing 2. 10 Fastest-Rising Food Prices at the Supermarket 3. California is in Big Trouble! So Are We All 4. Drought Monitor Chart For Continental US 5. Incurable Disease Threatens Florida Citrus Crop 6. Latin America Coffee Blight Sends Prices Skyward 7. The Solution to High Prices is High Prices
Why Quantitative Easing Didn?t Work
IN THIS ISSUE: 1. Why Fed?s Quantitative Easing (QE) Didn?t Work 2. Velocity of Money Plunged During Financial Crisis 3. Should Bernanke & Company Have Done More? 4. QE Was a Huge, Dangerous Experiment That Failed 5. Fed Begins to ?Taper? QE Purchases in January 6. Conclusions ? What Happens Next?
Bond Investing - Its the Short Side, Stupid
As you are probably aware, I am an avowed political junkie but this article isnt about politics. Instead, I want to borrow a phrase from the 1992 presidential election as an analogy to highlight what I believe bond investors should be concentrating on right now - the short side.
Shocking Fed Survey on Consumer Finances
Today we focus on a new Fed study which found that Americans net worth plunged almost 39% in the period from 2007 to 2010. That period included the so-called Great Recession, a financial crisis and a severe bear market in stocks. There are lots of interesting statistics to look at in this new Fed study.
The
Today we revisit the subject of the so-called fiscal cliff that our country faces at the end of this year if a Lame Duck Congress fails to pass a number of new laws by December 31. (I last wrote about this subject on March 27.) Some analysts are arguing that nothing really bad will happen if the Lame Duck Congress fails to get the job done. I disagree and I will tell you why below.
Spain & Weak US Economy Dominate Markets
Stock markets around the world have been pummeled in recent weeks amidst the growing reality that were in a global recession, especially in Europe. Fears that the US will also fall into recession have intensified, particularly in light of last weeks very disappointing economic reports. At the same time, the European debt crisis has once again raised its ugly head, this time with the spotlight on Spain. Spains own Prime Minister has admitted that the country is in a state of emergency, and money is gushing out of Spanish banks.
CBO Warns of Recession in 2013
The non-partisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has calculated the expected negative effects on the US economy if the Bush tax cuts expire at the end of this year. Their numbers just released last week are eye-opening! To give us some perspective, US Gross Domestic Product rose by 2.2% (annual rate) in the 1Q of this year.
Greece Poised to Default & Exit the Euro
Weve all heard horror stories about the global financial crisis that could unfold if tiny Greece defaults on its debts later this year. There are genuine fears that if Greece defaults, that leaves the door open to similar defaults by Portugal, Ireland and possibly even Spain. Some fear, in this nightmare scenario, that even Italy could default (although I doubt it). Will the ECB pony up even more taxpayer money for Greece this time around? Most agree that this will be decided largely by Germany.
Will The Bond Mania End Ugly?
Mass migrations of the investment public from one asset class to another have often ended very badly. We can all remember the late 2000-2002 bear market in stocks when the S&P 500 plunged almost 50% and the Nasdaq over 70%. Investors had been in a mania for stocks during the late 1990s. I believe what were seeing today qualifies as a mania for Treasury bonds. Im not predicting that the current bond bubble will end the way the dot.com mania ended, but it wont take a huge increase in interest rates to put a lot of bond fund investors who came late to the party underwater.
Is The Economic Recovery Stalling?
The US economic recovery is facing some stiff headwinds. Those include high gasoline prices, the recession and higher interest rates in Europe and the recent disappointing unemployment numbers in the US, just to name a few. The apparent slowdown in the recovery recently is in part due to the unusually warm winter, which served to pull economic activity forward in January and February, thus making March and April so far look softer. Some in the mainstream media concluded that we dont have a problem with the economy. Maybe so, but the recovery has had an uneasy feeling about it recently.
European Debt Crisis Never Went Away
US stocks are having a big day today, with the Dow up just over 200 points. But there are problems lurking in Europe that could be quite negative for global equities over the next several weeks. There are fears that Spain and perhaps Italy will need more bailout loans in the weeks just ahead. Thats our topic for today. In December and January the ECB took the unprecedented step of loaning apprx. 1 trillion euros to European money center banks in an effort to buy some time for the banks to recapitalize. The loans had three year maturities, and the interest rate was an incredibly low 1%.
Will Baby Boomers Wreck the Market? (The Sequel)
The basic premise behind the idea that Baby Boomers might lay waste to the stock market makes sense intuitively. The idea is that as Boomers retire, they will shift assets away from stocks to less risky alternatives such as bonds, annuities, CDs, etc. and begin living on the interest. All of this selling activity, the story goes, will put downward pressure on stock prices and lead to a major selloff.
Our National Debt Is Scarier Than You Think
The US national debt stands at just over $15.6 trillion as compared to the $15.1 trillion gross domestic product in 2011. This means that our national debt is now 103.3% of GDP, a feat which has not happened in the Post-WWII era. To put $15.6 trillion into perspective, this means that every man, woman and child in America owes just over $50,000 toward the national debt. If we use an estimated budget deficit of $1.1 trillion for 2012, the national debt will have grown by just over $5 trillion in the last four years.
Why Convertible Bonds Should Be Part of Your Asset Allocation
Im going to let you hear from Greg Miller about convertible bonds. Not only will Greg tell you how they work, but also why they can be an important diversification technique in your portfolio even now when other types of bonds are falling out of favor. I believe that many of you will want to have convertible bonds in your portfolio before long. The interest rate increases weve seen over the last couple of weeks may be a sign that the long bull market in traditional bonds is rolling over to the downside. Convertible bonds offer opportunity even during periods of rising interest rates!
The Truth Behind High Gasoline Prices
While the latest report on 4Q GDP came in a bit better than expected, most economists agree that growth in 2012 will not be as good as the 4Q of last year. Following that, we look at some remarks from Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke in his recent Senate testimony. While he defended quantitative easing, it doesnt sound like the Fed is going to do QE3 anytime soon.
Will the Bond Bubble Burst This Year?
I dont know who first uttered this classic line The trend is your friend (until its not) but it is timeless. It seems especially appropriate today in light of the massive shift weve seen from stocks to bonds since the financial crisis and bear market of 2008-early 2009. Millions of investors have moved from stocks to bonds and consider themselves safe. Today, there are more people invested in US bonds (of all types) than ever before.
On the Fed, Stocks, the Election & More on the 1%
We look at the Feds latest Beige Book report that came out last week, which showed that the economy improved in all 12 Fed Districts. We also ponder the question of whether the Fed is ramping up to do a QE3. Next, with everyone wondering if were facing another roller coaster ride in the stock market this year, I will bring you some interesting facts about what stocks have historically done in presidential election years. Finally, I dug a little deeper over the last week to find some fascinating information on the so-called Top 1% of wealthiest Americans.
The Fed: Is QE3 Coming in January?
For most of this year, rumors have continually swirled that the Fed was about to embark on yet a third round of Quantitative Easing. The rumors suggested, that the Fed would announce another $600 billion in asset purchases, primarily of long-dated Treasury bonds. While many of us argue that the first two rounds of QE have had little positive effect, the Obama administration and many others are urging the Fed to do more. The argument is that Europe is heading into a recession, and this cant help but weaken the US economy just ahead.
72% Say US Headed in the Wrong Direction
We begin with some new Associated Press polls released. Lead among them is the poll which found that 72% of Americans now believe that the US is headed in the wrong direction. Then summarize the latest economic reports, most disappointing, but there were a few bright spots. Finally, I will address a political issue that is just beginning to make the rounds in the media. That the Republican presidential hopefuls are gravitating to a flat tax and jobs growth agenda that could stand up very well against President Obamas tax-and-spend, punish- success policies in the 2012 election.
Is the Debt Super Committee Doomed to Fail?
The Super Committee has been meeting behind closed doors for over a month, but the members have thus far said very little about any progress being made. The Committee is back in the news now because last Friday was the deadline for submitting ideas or plans for trimming at least $1.2 trillion from federal spending over the next 10 years. In other words, its now time for the Super Committee to get down to some real work.
CEOs More Negative on the Economy & Jobs
Consumer spending accounts for apprx. 70% of GDP, so the fact that the confidence index remained very low once again this month does not bode well for a significant upturn in the economy in the 3Q. Doug Short of Advisor Perspectives created another very interesting table in his latest report: Using historical data from the Conference Board, Doug illustrates the average levels of the Consumer Confidence Index during each of the last five recessions. As you can see, consumer confidence in the recession and financial crisis of 2007-2009 was the lowest of any time in the last 30 years.
The Latest (Secret) Rescue Plan For Europe
Europe is preparing to go down a similar path as the US took in 2008 huge bailouts and a possible Euro-TARP to restructure its ailing banks. I hope it turns out better for Europe, but I am not optimistic. The possibility of a controlled default by Greece on 50% of its debt has numerous potentially disturbing ramifications. For example, what does that mean for Ireland and Portugal? Or Spain and Italy for that matter? Think unintended consequences. All of this suggests that October could be another very rough environment for the global equities markets. Keep your seatbelts fastened!
Obamas Jobs Speech, The Economy & The Fed
Once again this week, there is a lot of news to cover. We begin with my thoughts on President Obamas latest jobs speech in which he asked for yet another almost $450 billion in stimulus which he said is paid for. That all depends on Congress passing a litany of new tax increases that Obama announced yesterday. Following that discussion, we will look at the latest economic reports, including the dreadful August unemployment report. Next, we will move on to the latest news from the Fed and what the FOMC may be up to at its upcoming monetary policy meeting on September 20-21.
34 results found.
