In elevated financial markets, risk is rarely eliminated. It is usually only relocated. During the run-up to the 2008 financial crisis, mortgage risk did not disappear. It was transformed, repackaged, and spread across the system in ways that made it appear safer than it was.

The “American Industrial Renaissance” is an investment theme investors and allocators alike have probably been pitched several times, or at the very least heard about. Supply chains for manufactured goods have evolved to become more complex, while U.S. manufacturing employment as a share of total employment has steadily declined, leaving policy makers to grapple with the ramifications of a shrinking manufacturing base.

For all the chatter about Artificial Intelligence lifting economic growth, GDP isn’t showing it yet. We are projecting that real GDP grew at a 2.0% annual rate in the first quarter, matching the average annualized pace of growth since the peak back in late 2007, right before the Financial Panic and so-called Great Recession. In other words, mediocre growth.

Economic data released last week continued to highlight the same tension investors have been grappling with for months: moderating growth, inflation that remains “stuck” near 3 percent, and interest rates that remain the key swing factor for markets.

Markets continue to ebb and flow with every headline out of Iran and the Strait of Hormuz, but the most important message from the markets is resilience. Earnings season is off to a very strong start, with roughly a 75% beat rate, and the AI investment cycle continues to provide a powerful tailwind for equities.

Many people seem surprised by the US stock market’s resilience during the Iran war. I’m not one of them, and I don’t see the war becoming a significant threat to the market, even if it drags on.

It’s the big story so far in 2026. Alongside AI, geopolitical market volatility is creating dislocations for investors to target. While some are more immediate and some are longer term, the ETF wrapper offers strategies that can attack all kinds of sectors. In corporate bonds, for example, growing volatility could create opportunities.

Despite the turbulence, the global LCC market remains an enormous force. Four of the world’s 10 largest airlines—Ryanair, Southwest, IndiGo and easyJet—operate on a low-cost model. The broader budget travel market is projected to exceed $315 billion by 2028, according to Statista.

The Middle East war has entered a fragile ceasefire, offering tentative relief to energy and financial markets. Oil prices have eased and volatility has subsided, feeding hopes that the worst disruptions may be passing.

It’s tax season, and we’ve been reading a lot about taxes — and strategies for mitigating them. In this note, we’ll take a close look at one such strategy, known as leveraged long/short direct index tax-loss harvesting (LSDI), and explain how investors being pitched the strategy can assess whether it’s right for them.

If the first quarter of 2026 taught us anything, it's that markets are dynamic and that the factors shaping them extend well beyond corporate fundamentals. The road ahead presents a wider range of outcomes than investors have faced in some time. The outlook remains fluid and highly dependent on how several key factors evolve.

The world’s most important central banks will potentially hand investors fresh reasons to sell government bonds this week as policymakers find themselves forced to confront the risk of a war-driven inflation shock.

As the Q1 2026 earnings season enters its most frantic stretch, the market stands at a critical crossroads between resilient corporate fundamentals and macro-driven anxiety. While the high percentage of early beats suggests that American business remains surprisingly nimble, the coming days will determine if that momentum can withstand the Mag 7’s massive spending requirements.

Like many of you, I am inundated with information. Most of it is not useful or repetitive. Today, were going to do something different. Rather than one theme, let’s look at various bits of data that I found interesting this week.

Back-and-forth developments over the weekend around the Strait of Hormuz have added near-term volatility to energy markets. That uncertainty is feeding into oil prices and reinforcing questions about how persistent energy-driven inflation pressures could become, particularly if disruption risks continue to ebb and flow.

Last week’s economic data was defined by conflicting signals from the consumer. While retail figures suggest resilience, sentiment levels have plummeted to record lows. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 continued its historic rally as markets prepare for the upcoming Fed decision.

There’s no shortage these days of stories, posts and videos warning of the robot armies readying to vacuum up white-collar jobs in technology, finance, marketing, you name it. And there’s no doubt that artificial intelligence is rapidly changing how we live and work. Amid all this, though, a relative calm has descended on the labor market and should persist for the rest of this year, at least.

The index is on the verge of doubling for the first time in this bull market – currently up ~99% – a move that would take just under 3.5 years, slightly faster than the historical average of 3.9 years. While all sectors are in positive territory over this period, leadership has been narrow with only three – technology, communication services and industrials – posting gains above 100%.

Global bond markets are heading for their worst week in a month as investors grow increasingly uneasy about a stalemate between the US and Iran.

The spring edition of our Investment Directions takes on a new look. As the weather heats up, our “summer body” of work embraces a slimmed down word count, Q&A format, and visualfirst approach – better for consuming on the go, or preferably, outdoors.

Kevin Warsh's bid to become the next chair of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) unfolded amid sharp political tension, legal uncertainty, and pointed questions about his independence from President Trunp. During a combative Senate confirmation hearing, Warsh sought to reassure lawmakers that he would not allow political pressure to dictate monetary policy, even as unresolved Justice Department investigation into current Chair Jerome Powell threatens to delay his confirmation and underscores broader concerns about the politicization of the central bank.

Markets are being pulled in multiple directions. Geopolitical tensions, questions around Federal Reserve policy and the rapid rise of artificial intelligence are all competing for investor attention.

Markets have long struggled to price geopolitical risk. Part of the issue is that each flare-up tends to be viewed as a one-off volatility jolt to be weathered and then faded once there is resolution.

During and after World War II, Allied forces established airbases across remote Pacific Islands, bringing with them food, medicine, tools, and machinery that the indigenous people had never encountered before.

Higher oil prices have both positive and negative effects on the municipal bond market. Investors may want to evaluate their concentration risk.

At this point, investors of all ages are well aware just how much inflation can cut into one’s spending power, whether it be for everyday expenses or big-time purchases.

Stocks have been on a bit of a rollercoaster over the past two months. If your nature is to tune out the noise and check in occasionally, you might have missed it. After a 9 percent sell-off earlier in the year, markets quickly rebounded and have recently traded at all-time highs.

Concerns about the sustainability of U.S. fiscal policy have moved back into the investment spotlight. Over the past week, both multilateral institutions and prominent policymakers have raised warnings about the potential implications of America’s expanding debt burden for Treasury markets.

New Federal Reserve (Fed) chairs don’t come along often. Since 1980, only five individuals have led the Fed: Jerome Powell is currently in his second term, Janet Yellen served one term and Alan Greenspan famously held the role for more than 18 years.

Each spring, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) releases its World Economic Outlook (WEO), a review of global growth, and the key challenges confronting the world economy. This year’s edition followed the Fund’s usual structure, but the circumstances underneath it had shifted. ]

It’s a busy macro stretch as company earnings reports come in fast and furious. A focus on real data and earnings may be a welcome development for investors wary of geopolitical headlines. The team at Wall Street Horizon will keep you up to speed with the latest trends, and you can access our industry-leading forward-looking corporate event data to stay ahead of markets.

Fixed-income market sentiment was dominated by geopolitical headlines, particularly the conflict in the Middle East following disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz and rising oil prices, which contributed to renewed inflation concerns.

Since the Federal Reserve announced the resumption of quantitative easing (QE) in December, the central bank has expanded its balance sheet by over $200 billion.

The U.S. market story this year has been a tug-of-war between sticky inflation, slower growth, and resilient risk appetite. For fixed-income investors, that mix has produced more narrative movement than the 10-year Treasury itself.

While we are currently in a particularly grueling climb (including the war in Iran – a situation in which we will provide an update at the end of this piece), we cannot lose our long-term perspective. We want to take this piece as a summit in the middle of our hike; one where we can see a path through the trees and hills and clearly see four potential paths from here.

Vanguard is boosting its holdings of Treasuries, taking advantage of higher yields following the Middle East conflict to lock in rates and hedge against the risks of a potential growth slowdown.

Stocks are trading near a record high, signaling Wall Street is learning to cope with lingering geopolitical risks. Main Street is struggling to catch up.

LPL Research examines the fixed income space as global bonds broaden yields and reduce U.S. concentration, offering diversified income and resilience via non‑U.S. developed and emerging markets.

The stock market selloff between February 28 and April 14 produced one of the more instructive market lessons in recent memory. It isn’t because of what the market did, but because of what investors did in response.

As always, I hope you’re having a good 2026 and that all is well with you, my readers, and your family and friends. Here’s my latest.

While Russ acknowledges that the ongoing conflict in the Middle East has contributed near-term volatility, he also notes that these rising tensions are occurring against the backdrop of a solid U.S. economy.

The long-term care confidence gap is the difference between understanding the importance of a risk and consistently addressing it with clients. Advisors know, but they do not always say. The gap isn’t about intelligence or professionalism; it’s about the difference between technical knowledge and conversational leadership.

Yes, much of the blame lies with energy prices, which surged due to the war in Iran. Still, the March reading of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) serves as a reminder of the work to be done to damp inflation.

The federal government is still on an unsustainable fiscal path with the national debt reaching $39 trillion in March and set to move higher in the years ahead as we keep running budget deficits. However, beneath the headlines both revenue and spending trends have shifted in a positive direction. It’s possible that investors are recognizing this and this may be helping buoy stock markets.

The history of the U.S. airline industry is really a history of consolidation driven by crisis. The pattern has been remarkably consistent. Historically, when an external shock has hit—a recession, a war, an energy spike—the weakest carriers have folded or been acquired, while the strongest have emerged leaner and more profitable.

Over the past few weeks, a rising tide of optimism has been gathering in the equity markets. This positive momentum reached a crescendo last week when Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi announced that, in line with the ceasefire in Lebanon, the Strait of Hormuz would reopen for commercial vessels after being closed for approximately seven weeks beginning in late February.

Clearly the path to peace is not as easy as it looked last Friday when the easing in Middle East tensions, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to commodity flows, and the sharp retreat in oil prices calmed fears on the most immediate macro threat to equities.

The Q1 2026 earnings season has officially started, and the early results suggest a market that is largely defying the geopolitical fog we’ve discussed.

Get ready each week with high-conviction insights that go beyond media headlines.

Oil shocks hitting economies with weak demand and strained balance sheets are especially damaging. Firms cannot fully pass on rising costs, so margins shrink, layoffs increase, and investment falls. Tightening monetary and credit conditions would cause inflation to fade faster but job losses, failures, and fragile household finances to be much worse.