Friedman was reasoning from the equation of exchange, MV = PQ. Money times velocity equals prices times real output. It’s an identity, not a theory. Where it gets interesting is when you ask which variable does the work.
The dominant theme this week was a tug of war between improving macroeconomic conditions and weakness in parts of the technology sector.
From our experience participating in Fed meetings, we know that the dot plot has never been universally embraced within the institution. The concern was not that it lacked informational value, but rather that markets interpreted it as a forecast, which was never its intended purpose. Forward guidance is meant to shape expectations and influence behavior, not to serve as a firm prediction of future policy decisions.
Markets have been hyper-focused on AI, crypto and buffer ETFs, but REIT ETFs have quietly staged an impressive comeback. The REIT terrain has shifted rapidly over recent years, and forward-looking investors and advisors have taken notice.
As expectations have shifted toward slower growth, higher inflation, and higher rates, investors have rotated back to sectors like large-cap technology and semiconductors, capable of delivering durable earnings in a tougher macro environment.
Circumstances since 2020 have repeatedly demonstrated how adaptable the economy is in the face of new challenges. We see no reason for that resilience to fade in the balance of the year.
Last week’s data reaffirmed that inflation pressures remain the defining narrative across the economic landscape.
I’m hopeful new chair Kevin Warsh will help change the Fed’s inflation-tolerating institutional culture. Early signs look positive. Today we’ll talk about how insidious inflation is and why those who think a little inflation is fine should have their heads examined. It is not fine… for anyone.
The AI boom goes from strength to strength. Big technology companies are pouring hundreds of billions of dollars into chips, data centers and power-hungry infrastructure. One estimate puts annual AI infrastructure investment above $650 billion in 2025 and potentially over $800 billion in 2026..
Private credit is having a moment in the headlines. Higher interest rates and a pullback in certain types of bank lending have pushed more financing activity into private markets. Investors may be left with a simple question: What exactly is private credit?
In a world of high starting yields and rupturing economic alliances, investors who actively diversify across regions, sectors, and currencies can be better positioned to pursue durable returns.
As the market continues to broaden in 2026, a balanced approach matters more than ever.
New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is already reshaping policy communication by reducing forward guidance, questioning the dot plot’s future and emphasizing real-time data, potentially increasing Treasury market volatility.
Kevin Warsh, the newly appointed Federal Reserve chair, led his first committee meeting in June. The decision to leave short-term interest rates unchanged didn’t surprise anybody, but there was plenty for markets to chew on. Warsh seems likely to make structural changes that may not impact near-term monetary policy but could matter much more to the US economy over the long run.
Halfway through 2026, this market perspective is harder to write with confidence than most. That’s not a phrase I use lightly. Over four decades of markets, there have been plenty of uncertain moments, but the number of significant, unresolved issues I’m watching right now is unusually high.
What if the debt crisis investors have feared is not still ahead, but already here, unfolding in plain sight? In his June insight, Richard Bernstein, Global Head of Macro & Customized Investing, makes the case that the market may already be penalizing U.S. fiscal excess, not through a dramatic collapse, but through a slow burn with real consequences for investors and the broader economy.
With the release of May's report on personal incomes and outlays, we can now take a closer look at "real" disposable personal income per capita. To two decimal places, disposable income per capita was up up 0.68% month-over-month. But when adjusted for inflation, real disposable income per capita was up 0.23%.
The third estimate for Q1 GDP came in at 2.09%, an acceleration from 0.48% for the Q4 final estimate. With a per-capita adjustment, the headline number is lower at 1.91%, a pickup from 0.18% for the Q4 headline number.
Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh is changing how the central bank conducts monetary policy. A fresh look is appropriate, especially given the Fed’s failure to achieve its 2% inflation objective for more than five years. But this needs to be done with greater care than Warsh has shown to date.
According to Gleason, the freezing of Russian assets following the 2022 invasion of Ukraine accelerated the global push toward de-dollarization. Nations around the world took notice that access to the dollar-based financial system could be restricted, increasing the appeal of gold as a reserve asset that cannot be frozen or sanctioned by foreign governments.
Kevin Warsh’s first Federal Reserve meeting as chair mattered less for the rate decision than for what he revealed about how the Fed intends to operate. Warsh signaled a shift toward less guidance and more flexibility.
On May 5, 2026, researchers from Cleveland Clinic, RIKEN, and IBM successfully simulated a 12,635-atom protein complex using quantum-centric supercomputing, a problem relevant to drug discovery that classical computing could not match at comparable speed and accuracy.
In broad terms, there appears to be little headline risk facing advisors and income investors mulling municipal bonds. All 50 states carry investment-grade credit ratings, confirming that their credit quality remains solid.
It’s easy to understand why investors are skeptical about value stocks. After nearly two decades of chronic weakness, value’s strong rebound since early 2025 hasn’t offered enough proof that the turnaround has staying power.
US technology stocks rebounded, lifting key indexes, after the latest flareup of concerns about the scale of the artificial-intelligence-fueled rally wiped nearly $1.3 trillion from the market capitalization of Nasdaq 100 companies over the first two days of the week.
When investors feel like the stock market is toppy, as many do now, they often compare what they expect stocks and bonds to pay. The yield on stocks should offer a premium over bonds to compensate for higher risk, and it usually does.
The most important development this week was not the Federal Reserve meeting itself, but the sharp and unexpected decline in oil prices. Just days ago, many market participants expected crude to remain elevated amid ongoing tensions in the Middle East. Instead, WTI crude briefly traded with a 73 handle, only modestly above its pre-conflict levels and far below the $90-$100 range that many feared.
There’s a new sheriff in town over at the Federal Reserve. He sounds a lot different than the old sheriff, but one would be wise to remember that Kevin Warsh is enforcing the same laws in the same town as Jerome Powell did.
Equities rallied after President Trump announced an agreement with Iran to end their conflict and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The S&P 500 and the NASDAQ finished the holiday-shortened week with solid gains, led by the technology sector.
Alan Greenspan, the titan of global central banking who led the Federal Reserve during decades of prosperity, has died at 100, just when elements of his free-market philosophy are experiencing a renaissance.
Kevin Warsh, the newly appointed Federal Reserve chair, led his first committee meeting in June. The decision to leave short-term interest rates unchanged didn’t surprise anybody, but there was plenty for markets to chew on.
U.S. equities posted a modest advance during the holiday-shortened trading week despite a Wednesday sell-off following a more hawkish than expected Federal Reserve meeting under its new chair, Kevin Warsh.
The rising debt burden of the U.S. government is becoming an increasingly serious economic concern. While it may not be an immediate crisis, it has the characteristics of a slow-moving domestic pandemic.
The corporate world is awash in capex. Leaders in the artificial intelligence (AI) arms race are pouring hundreds of billions of dollars into tech projects, and uncertainty surrounds their profitability. For now, the market rewards this use of cash, but it’s not without pitfalls. Share buybacks, for instance, are seen as a net loser, while the S&P 500® dividend yield has sunk toward all-time lows near 1%.
All of this is a warning to other developed markets with debt levels on the verge of exceeding their gross domestic product. Following the Truss chaos of four years ago, the market has decided to approach the UK through a lens of always assuming the worst, a default that continues to cost British taxpayers in the form of higher interest rates.
The fixed income environment continues to project uncertainty, as higher-for-longer interest rates persist amid sticky inflation. Investors may want to lean on the expertise of active managers when deciding between an active and indexed fund.
No one can guarantee which choices will be best for your financial future. Do your best to make them, not out of anxiety over the broader economy, but in the context of your own family’s needs and finances.
The advisory profession is entering a new era. AI will not replace advisors — but advisors who use AI will replace those who don’t. And the actuarial approach is uniquely well suited to this transition.
Kevin Warsh, the new chairman of the FOMC, has long been critical of forward guidance, which is the Fed’s practice of explicitly signaling the future path of interest rates (e.g., “rates will stay low for an extended period” or publishing a projected path for policy rates). His concern is that the guidance could give the impression that policymakers might have a high degree of confidence about the future path of the economy and rates.
The US-Iran conflict – and its impact on oil prices – has dominated headlines over the past three months. Higher oil prices have pushed inflation to a three‑year high, reshaping the Federal Reserve’s rate outlook.
On Monday, President Donald Trump announced that the U.S. and Iran have reached a peace deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, the 21-mile chokepoint through which roughly 20% of the world’s oil supply normally flows.
The results of Kevin Warsh’s first official set of meetings on monetary policy as the Chairman of the Federal Reserve were like a breath of fresh air.
Chris Galipeau discusses high-conviction insights that go beyond media headlines.
The announcement of an extended ceasefire in the Middle East is welcome news. The accord, which is scheduled to be signed late this week, reduces a source of geopolitical uncertainty that has hovered over the global economy. But significant risks remain.
Discover why DoubleLine's Jeffrey Gundlach is urging a structural defensive rotation into emerging markets and international assets.
As geopolitical factors increasingly impact returns in a changing market, active portfolio management will become an increasingly necessary approach for advisors seeking to navigate uncertainty and deliver consistent results.
Gold is often misunderstood. It is not a growth asset, and it produces no cash flow. Its role is to maintain purchasing power — not outperform. It reflects the currency’s declining value.
You know the term “Money Illusion”: mistakenly believing that today’s dollars have the same purchasing power as the dollars of ten or twenty years ago. As with any illusion, fake replaces real, image supplants fact, and fog obscures truth. We’re here to help you sort it out.
For the first time in four years, companies in emerging markets are beating profit estimates, giving investors a fresh reason to believe the bull market is just getting started.
Alan Greenspan, the Federal Reserve chairman proclaimed a wizard for guiding a then-record US economic expansion, only to see his luster dimmed by the financial crisis that erupted less than two years after he stepped down, has died. He was 100.
