People who are affiliated with the party that is represented in the White House always think the economy is better than those in the party not represented. Somehow, those opinions tend to change around elections. People’s views of the economy change very quickly if there is a change in control of the White House.
Seasonality has long influenced stock market trends, offering insights into predictable cycles of strength and weakness throughout the year. Yale Hirsch, the creator of the Stock Trader’s Almanac, is one of the most well-known contributors to studying these patterns.
A call for taking a closer look at hard assets given the macro backdrop has been a recurring theme this fall.
The yield curve indicates that US economic growth has slowed, with only limited signs that the economy could be heading into a broad decline.
As advisors wrestle with the impacts of interest rates, inflation, and the election, it is more important than ever to hear from the experts.
We don’t talk about China enough. I suspect this is for several reasons. First, because the country is so incomprehensibly big and populous. Second, it has been an economic miracle. Many Chinese enthusiasts just see a straight line projection of their growth. To the moon, Alice!
With less than two weeks remaining before the U.S. presidential election, there’s a growing sense of uncertainty in the air. Investors are wondering how to position their money, bracing for the possibility of significant volatility and market shifts.
Even with inflation well and truly on the way down after the most aggressive interest-rate tightening in a generation, central banks are averse to declarations of victory. That the pace of price increases has been reined in without a major economic downturn is an accomplishment that warrants some trumpeting.
Memory inflation of past events amplifies one's emotions and behaviors. As I will discuss, I believe that distress from recent price inflation is causing many investors to overly fear that a similar situation will reoccur.
Equity investors face a bewildering sequence of tough-to-predict outcomes and confusing market signals. Patience and a steady hand look like valuable attributes in navigating through the noise.
Economists nudged up quarterly US economic growth projections through early next year on more sanguine views of consumer demand and maintained views that limited inflation will keep the Federal Reserve on a path toward lower borrowing costs.
The Federal Reserve's dual mandate is to maintain stable inflation and maximize employment. The Fed manages liquidity through its policy tools, but it's crucial to remember that the Fed is just one source of liquidity among several. In this quick insight, Dan Suzuki examines why tight Fed policy doesn't always equate to tight liquidity and looks into the historical data on Fed cuts.
Medicare open enrollment, held from October 15 to December 7, allows individuals to change or sign up for plans, and potentially save money and improve coverage. Our Bill Cass shares the key things you need to know.
Many investors today use EM debt for the wrong reasons, manage it imprudently, or overlook the best parts.
Financial markets moved higher yet again in the third quarter of 2024, and this time everyone joined in!
Two major labor unions, the Dock Workers Union and the Boeing Machinists Union, have attempted to reach an agreement with their employers on a contract. The dock workers agreement proposes an average 8.5% per year wage increase over six years, and the Boeing Machinists Union’s proposal is for an average 7.5% wage increase over four years.
The period from 1956-1966 offers lessons we can apply to today's bull market, regarding technological progress, market fundamentals and more.
The sharp selloff in Treasuries abated on Thursday, with US bonds rallying alongside European peers, after three straight days of declines.
In our latest AB Disruptor Series episode, we take a closer look at the implications of a polarized US electorate on the macro and market landscape.
Fixed income experts at Natixis Investment Managers recently weighed in with outlooks on rate cuts and how to approach bonds.
It’s inevitable that the market dynamics that have delivered cheaper airfares, used cars and rents in the past year will eventually turn around. One high-profile reminder came from United Airlines’ earnings last week.
US sales of previously owned homes declined to an almost 14-year low in September as prospective buyers waited for a further decline in mortgage rates and more attractive asking prices.
Treasury yields climbed for the third straight day amid growing expectations that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates at a gradual pace and as traders fretted about the potential inflationary implications of the US presidential election.
Tighter fiscal policy in Europe and China may hinder the economic response to easing monetary policy, with a resulting shift in investors' focus.
Senior Investment Strategist Tracey Manzi notes that while the predictive power of the inverted yield curve has waned this cycle, investors shouldn't dismiss the warning signs entirely.
Global oil markets are working through many disruptions.
Recent events, particularly the devastation caused by Hurricanes Helene and Milton in 2024, provide a clear example of why destruction does not create long-term economic prosperity. Despite the short-term boost in economic activity from rebuilding efforts, the broader economic implications are far more detrimental.
Thanks to a variety of structural advantages, including favorable demographic trends, we believe the U.S. remains the most attractive investment environment in the world.
The latest economic data reveals a resilient economy, led by strong retail sales and a surprising drop in jobless claims. Despite some weakness in manufacturing, industrial production, and housing, overall economic strength is reflected in the projected third-quarter real GDP growth, expected to come in at a robust 3%—largely driven by productivity gains. This productivity led rebound is very positive and this confirms that despite tighter monetary conditions, the real economy remains strong.
With polls showing Kamala Harris and Donald Trump in a close race, how do the key economic metrics favor each candidate?
The cautiously optimistic American consumer braces for financial strain as inflation and debt delinquencies are expected to rise.
Markets fluctuate for numerous reasons, but investors often focus on just a few, like how a presidential election will impact the markets.
Bonds extended losses as investors mulled the prospect of slower US interest-rate cuts, a trend that risks upending debt positions everywhere.
Big Tech is going nuclear in its pursuit of artificial intelligence. Power-hungry datacenters are just one part of a broader freak-out over how the US grid will handle even bigger loads including electric vehicles and re-shored factories, plus withstand extreme weather, all while decarbonizing at a reasonable cost.
US stocks are unlikely to sustain their above-average performance of the past decade as investors turn to other assets including bonds for better returns, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. strategists said.
From current data, it is clear there are no signs the U.S. economy is currently facing challenges.
Energy policy decisions today will have long-lasting implications.
GMO has posted a new 7-Year Asset Class Forecast.
The S&P 500 is on track to deliver its second consecutive year of 20+% returns – a milestone it has not achieved since 1998. It is also on pace to deliver its strongest performance leading into an election year since 1932.
Even without new staff projections, the European Central Bank makes policy less restrictive and lowers its relevant rate to 3.25%.
Risk. It’s a tiny word for a critical investment concept, one that necessarily merits ample discussion by advisors with their clients. Unfortunately, evidence suggests this may not be happening evenly across the advisory industry.
Rather than go back and reminisce about the articles I’m most proud of, I think a better exercise is to look at those I got wrong and reflect on what might be learned.
Price action in some of the world’s most risk-sensitive assets is signaling concern that the Federal Reserve’s decision to begin lowering interest rates may have been premature — or unsustainable.
Benchmark Treasury yields may soon hit a key level on the back of rising inflation expectations and concerns over US fiscal spending, according to T. Rowe Price.
With the backdrop of U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) headlines in addition to the shifting narratives of the election season, we have been focusing on what we are calling the Great Normalization as overall economic trends in the U.S. are getting back to normal.
With the presidential election less than a month away, and the two candidates running head-to-head in the polls, there is certainly a lot of uncertainty in the markets.
Housing prices matter to everyone, even if you aren’t trying to buy, sell, or rent a home. They are the key to inflation, which drives Fed policy and interest rates, which drive financial markets. We’re all part of this, like it or not. Today we’ll review what is happening.
If you’ve been paying attention to the markets, especially in recent months, you’ve likely noticed something interesting happening with nuclear energy stocks.
The tendency to blindly follow these rules has led investors towards prematurely de-risking and over-estimating the likelihood of recession.
Jeff and Ron Muhlenkamp discuss economic data and its influence on the federal funds target range. They also talk about the policy choices of the presidential candidates and the affect they may have on the economy and our investors’ wealth.
