Competing narratives have emerged to describe the state of the U.S. economy.
Changes in sentiment may drive the performance of the Eurozone equity markets, even with disappointing economic data.
China's economy may have spillover effects on global economic and earnings growth, but it's unlikely to lead to global financial contagion and send stock markets materially lower.
As businesses worldwide adopt technology, the innovation of AI may result in market leadership changes, global economic growth, and investor opportunities.
Will the economy roll into a formal recession, or is a recovery underway? It's a close call.
Central bank policies are set to diverge from the steady hikes characterizing the first half of 2023, contributing to increased market volatility for the remainder of the year.
A high probability for an El Niño event in the second half of 2023 brings concerns of extreme weather, persistent inflation, supply chain disruptions, and market volatility.
As summer temperatures peak, inflation just won't completely cool down. The question is how much more the Federal Reserve should do about it.
India's growth initiatives and demographics may help its economy continue to advance; its stocks seem to have priced in high expectations for the world's fifth-largest economy.
Japanese stocks may help boost the performance of international markets although the unique nature of Japan's economic and business structure could pose some risks.
Sometimes it feels like the economy and markets are on different tracks.
The drama characterizing the first half of 2023 may abate, with potentially milder returns for investors due to the effects of the Cardboard Box Recession.
Although few nations have a debt ceiling similar to the U.S.', rising government debt levels are a widespread global risk that may lead to lower economic output and weaker growth.
Political brinkmanship in Washington adds to concerns about the economy.
Shifts in the labor market due to monetary policy tightening would see lagged effects that may not aid central banks' efforts to materially affect core inflation by year's end.
China’s domestically driven economic growth has not yet translated to Emerging Market stock performance, which has tended to have been weighed down by international political tensions.
What does a potential change in Federal Reserve policy mean for markets and the economy?
Although central banks may be near the end of the rate hike cycle, short-duration stocks may still be an attractive investment theme should interest rates remain at higher levels.
Investors continue to seek signs of a change in season—and clues about how the Federal Reserve might react to it.
Considering that a new year almost always brings surprises of one form or another, we've highlighted our top five that may define the global markets in 2023.
Inflation trends are moving in a favorable direction, but the change is likely too slow for the Fed to take its foot off the brake anytime soon.
Markets may continue to see volatility in 2023 as they navigate between global economic growth and inflation fears, with central banks' decreasing rate hikes and China's reopening.
Markets can have more sway over policymakers than vice versa, as demonstrated in the U.K. recently.
Although an economic rebound in China is underway according to government and private sector data, its economy and stock market may remain volatile.
Stock prices and bond yields have been moving in opposite directions this year.
The "end of globalization" is a phrase that has come up a lot lately.
For the past month, investors have been focused on the war on Ukraine and the economic impact of sanctions.
The past isn’t a perfect predictor of market behavior, but it has proven to be a useful guide.
The Russian invasion of Ukraine overturned a lot of assumptions about the near-term direction of the global economy.
Markets have already reacted to the threat of a Russian invasion of Ukraine in a textbook manner akin to prior similar events that we have outlined in prior articles on January 31 and February 22.
In an apparent desire to create a weakened border state unable to join NATO, Russia supported separatists in eastern Ukraine by recognizing the independence of two regions: Donetsk and Luhansk. In support, Russia ordered “peacekeeping” troops to the areas, prompting sanctions by world powers.
Most investors are probably less diversified than they think they are.
In recent weeks, it has felt like the U.S. stock market slips a gear every so often, dropping sharply as investors search for traction in uncertain terrain.
Markets appear to be reacting to military developments in Ukraine.
Last week, U.S. Treasury bond yields, climbed back to their pre-pandemic levels.
Despite the strong year for stocks in 2021, markets have confidently priced in some negative trends gathering more momentum in 2022 which may help markets, should trends reverse.
Some of the market’s recent pressures are showing signs of easing.
As we wrote about in our 2022 Global Outlook, COVID-19 is becoming endemic rather than pandemic. We anticipate a winter wave of COVID, potentially with new variants like omicron.
A high tide of growth, aided by a sea change in fiscal policy, is likely to help float the global economy safely over the rocks of risks in 2022, despite waves of worries emanating from COVID, inflation, shortages, and rate hikes.
After a year of supply shortages, the global economy may be closer to the end of the supply chain problems than the beginning.
Services make up more of the economy, jobs, and the stock market. The time has come to focus on services data to get a sense of the overall economic picture.
Looking ahead, new sources of inflation may continue to arise. Unless the mounting pressures push inflation to significantly higher levels that would provoke central banks into aggressive tightening, the impact on global stock markets may be a positive.
The performance momentum could continue with the reopening of the nation’s capital reinvigorating economic growth, the strong upward trend in revisions to analysts’ earnings estimates for Japanese companies, lower relative valuations, and a historically bullish pre-election period.
A gradual slowing of stimulus heralds a potential drop for the world’s stock markets, but the evidence suggests a possibility for a positive outcome.
Supply chain issues are worsening again, reversing improvements seen earlier this summer.
China’s stock market pullback this year has been in line with the average annual drawdown; historically, this volatility has tended to produce double-digit annualized gains.
COVID-19 resurgences appear to be the primary driver of moves across many markets this year.
In the last few weeks, stock market leadership reversed back to lockdown-era defensives as the stock market made new all-time highs.
It is possible that good data could be interpreted as bad news for the U.S. stock market at least in the near-term as strong economic data, especially on jobs, could prompt the Fed to unwind earlier.
To get the facts, sometimes you need to look beneath the surface.
