’ll first summarize their projections and note what I think are some shockers. Then I’ll take a look at how accurate their past forecasts have been. Finally, I’ll conclude with what I’m changing in my own portfolio...
Treasury yields dropped to weekly lows Friday after weak January retail sales data prompted traders to restore bets that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by September.
Markets always look their very best at the top - that's increasingly the case with gold as it nears $3,000 a troy ounce. It's behaving like a Veblen good, an item for which, contrary to the laws of economics, demand increases with price.
President Donald Trump ordered his administration to consider imposing reciprocal tariffs on numerous trading partners, raising the prospect of a wider campaign against a global system he complains is tilted against the US.
It is not just tariffs that might affect inflation and growth but also trade uncertainty and the effects of the ambitious Trump policy agenda.
The January Employment Situation Report reaffirmed the resilience of the U.S. labor market, with nonfarm payrolls rising by 143,000 and the unemployment rate ticking down to 4.0%.
Building a bond portfolio these days isn’t easy. Interest rates have been volatile. Credit spreads are tight. And sweeping change in US fiscal, trade, and regulatory policy is underway. We think securitized assets deserve a closer look.
At the same time, the Fed has mostly ignored the impact of easy financial conditions—the combination of stock, bond, and credit conditions—offsetting increases in interest rates by bolstering wealth and confidence.
2025 is beginning in much the same manner as 2024, with investors focused on whether the Chinese government is going to implement new stimulus measures.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said the latest consumer price data show that while the central bank has made substantial progress toward taming inflation, there is still more work to do.
US wholesale prices rose in January by more than forecast on higher food and energy costs, highlighting only limited progress on inflation ahead of tariffs imposed by the Trump administration.
The article introduces CC CAPE, a modified version of Shiller CAPE, which corrects index biases for improved forecasting. While both measure market valuations for long-term return forecasting, the CAPE Spread helps gauge sentiment for medium-term predictions.
Michael Contopoulos breaks down why CLOs offer attractive relative value, why short-duration positioning may help manage interest rate uncertainty, and the importance of an active approach for this year in particular.
The Federal Reserve’s record of forecasting has frequently led it to respond too late to changes in economic and financial conditions. In the most recent FOMC meeting, the Federal Reserve changed its statement to support a pause in the current interest rate-cutting cycle.
Market valuation indicators are used by investors and analysts to gauge whether markets are overvalued, undervalued, or fairly valued relative to historical norms. Tune in for a summary of the four market valuation indicators we update monthly.
President Donald Trump called for lower interest rates, seeking to raise pressure on the Federal Reserve as he moves to implement a second-term economic agenda high on tariffs and expanding tax breaks.
The Federal Reserve is set to refrain from cutting interest rates for “quite a while,” following a hotter-than-expected inflation report, according to Mohamed El-Erian.
Private equity firms are facing early tests to the theory that Donald Trump’s return to the White House is a net win for America’s dealmakers.
We explore why extreme market concentration is unsustainable, how competition and innovation drive broader market performance, and why diversification is key as volatility rises. Don’t let market extremes catch you off guard.
As the sequel unfolds, particular industry sectors in affected countries are likely to be more impacted. Global Head of Credit Research Mike Talaga, Head of EMEA Credit Research James Maxwell, and Client Portfolio Manager Celia Soares discuss the implications for credit investors.
The equity markets were lower after facing a trifecta of headwinds from China, the Fed, and the White House. Stocks are running a bit serpentine right now, with tech under extreme pressure in response to headlines highlighting the low-cost language model developed by Chinese artificial intelligence startup DeepSeek.
Tariff policies have been announced and then subsequently rescinded or delayed–but not yet resolved. They may still hold the potential for market volatility.
ETFs have always been a useful tool to play momentum and reversal in markets. However, the biggest question is always when to enter and exit such specific ETFs as the markets move through their cycles.
Gold endured a volatile few hours’ trading — rallying to a record, then paring gains — after President Donald Trump imposed tariffs on US steel and aluminum imports, adding to uncertainty in global markets.
Over the weekend, President Trump announced tariffs of 25% on both Canada and Mexico, as well as a 10% tariff on China.
Tariff threats offer a glimpse of what is in store.
Exploring the delicate balance between protectionism and global cooperation
On the latest edition of Market Week in Review, Senior Director & Chief Investment Strategist for North America Paul Eitelman discussed the main themes from U.S. 4Q 2024 earnings season, and provided a U.S. trade policy update & recent announcements from global central banks.
Integrating private assets may enhance target-date glide paths, but know your exposures.
Last week’s economic data reflected resilience and uncertainty. Key indicators pointed to ongoing expansion.
Adding cash-flow-matched bond strategies to a total return strategy appears to improve total return relative to risk by reducing the likelihood of poor outcomes.
While Merton is one of the most brilliant financial economists who ever lived, high-level quantitative chops do not guarantee financial success.
US inflation showed scant signs of downward momentum at the start of the year, while healthy job growth undergirded the economy, backing the Federal Reserve’s stance to hold the line on interest rates for now.
Today we’ll talk about Trump, tariffs, cycles, and DOGE. Jumping right in…
Markets, as many of you are aware, don’t like uncertainty. And right now, there’s a lot of uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policy.
In today’s era of automation, some situations demand a more active approach. Municipal bond investing is one.
Tariffs seem to have become a staple of Americans’ dictionaries lately as the new administration uses this policy instrument to achieve objectives that are not directly tied to the reasons tariffs have been used in the past.
Since our last update of our ‘Three Tactical Rules’ on November 26, 2024, equity markets are up slightly.
US government bonds fell as mixed employment data left traders holding tight to expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates steady until later this year.
Raymond James CIO Larry Adam looks at how the proposed tariffs may impact the economy and financial markets.
The first month of 2025 is now in the rearview mirror, and investors recently experienced a fortnight (14 days) of headline-making activity, ranging from President Trump taking office, the January FOMC meeting, and of course, the developments surrounding the DeepSeek news.
In a first quarter 2025 asset allocation report, Confluence expects resilient economic growth in the short term.
VettaFi discusses tariffs and transportation ETFs.
2025's complex market environment lays the groundwork for active bond strategies to potentially shine, according to MFS and AllianceBernstein.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the Trump administration’s focus with regard to bringing down borrowing costs is 10-year Treasury yields, rather than the Federal Reserve’s benchmark short-term interest rate.
Why would a bank suddenly shut down a customer’s adequately funded account? Some leading Republicans, echoing tech titans like Marc Andreessen, have warned of a conspiracy among regulators to “debank” conservatives and crypto enthusiasts.
Our latest article, authored by renowned strategist Martin Pring, dives into the evolving dynamics of inflation, commodity prices, and interest rates. Despite recent rate cuts, the bond market appears to be echoing Martin's earlier warning. The business cycle is moving toward a critical stage—one that historically signals a surge in commodities and potential shifts in CPI inflation.
Bullish exuberance is returning to the markets and the economy in a big way following the Presidential election.
We analyze the impact of U.S. tariff proposals on markets and how investors can manage their portfolios accordingly.
Factories across the world are growing increasingly idle. Global industrial capacity utilization (CAPU) has fallen significantly, and a rising unemployment rate has followed suit, signaling that the available factors of production globally are progressively more redundant.
