Pring Turner Capital Group

The article explores why the Federal Reserve might face pressure to raise interest rates rather than lower them in 2024, contrary to conventional expectations. It delves into the current phase of the business cycle, particularly focusing on the bullish trend for commodities and its implications for inflation.

The article explores potential parallels between 1968 and 2024, specifically in the context of the stock market and economic trends. It delves into the concept of secular trends, emphasizing the importance of considering inflation-adjusted stock prices to comprehend the potential impact on portfolios.

The article explores the current state of the bull market, offering insights from Pring Turner Capital. The author discusses indicators supporting optimism for a second leg of the bull market, citing economic, monetary, and technical factors.

In February this year we wrote an article entitled A Funny Thing Happened on the Way to the Recession. Fast forward to the current situation, where opinion has shifted away from recession in favor of a soft-landing scenario. Does that same contrary analysis mean a recession is now more likely? The simple answer is no, not yet anyway!

If 2022 was the zenith of the post financial crisis bull market, the intervening year and a quarter is a relatively short period from which to conclude that a turn in the secular tide has taken place. That said, several indicators have already begun to signal a change in trend.

The US economy has reached a crucial juncture point, as several leading economic indicators are on the edge of signaling a recession.

Growing Evidence the Secular Trend in Stock Prices May be Reversing! We can’t be sure that the equity secular bull market for stocks is over, but it’s quite apparent that several reliable indicators are moving in that direction. Many others are on the brink of a sell signal.

In March of last year, we wrote an article entitled “Timing the End of the Tech and Bitcoin Bubbles”. Our conclusion for Bitcoin was that it was indeed in a bubble but that there was insufficient technical evidence at the time indicating its bursting.

In an October 2021 article, we made the case for a new secular commodity bull market and concluded that this environment would likely spill back into the economy and stock market.

We are in uncharted waters on many fronts, so no one can really answer that inflation/deflation question with any degree of certainty. We can however, look to the technical condition of commodity markets for guidance, since they have usually, acted as a barometer for more generalized swings in inflationary and deflationary pressures. Commodity prices look poised to signal a new secular bull market, which would likely broaden out to result in the highest more generalized inflation rates since the 1970’s.

A better appreciation of the history of market bubbles should help advisors and their clients sidestep some of the carnage when they inevitably burst. It is our intention in this article to take a more clinical approach by quantifying what we mean by a “bubble” solely in terms of market action. In that way, it is possible to compare conditions between individual markets and arrive at a rough standard. There are of course, many other aspects to bubbles and manias, several you can read about here.

We see five independent areas providing evidence of a commodity bull market. They are, commodities themselves, the economy, and the bond, stock and currency markets. Let’s consider them in turn to see if this time commodities can fulfill their promise.

After a wicked stock market decline into late March and impressive 60% advance off the low, it seems a stretch to expect still higher equity prices. However, a major extension to the post March rally is definitely supported by the five reliable long-term indicators featured in this research note. Their current position is far more consistent with a major long-term buying opportunity than a selling one.

Putting it all together, it seems likely that we are dealing with a short but sharp recession. The resultant recovery will initially look strong from a momentum point of view. That’s because the economy will quickly open up, egged on by the positive effects of record monetary, fiscal stimulus and over time with the reshoring of manufacturing jobs.

Always being alert and anticipating the next inflection point in the business cycle can help you actively manage your investments while taking advantage of emerging profit opportunities and more importantly protect your wealth from the inevitable cyclical declines. This exceptionally long business cycle appears set to emerge from its third growth slowdown and has now reached the stage where a cyclical bull market in commodities can be expected.