With the decision on Wednesday to lower interest rates (for the first time since March of 2020) by a substantial 50 basis points (bps), rather than the 25 bps cut we typically see at the beginning of an easing cycle, the Fed is showing confidence that the disinflation trend will continue.
As the kiddos return to school, our fantasy football lineups are set, and the summer has ended, not only is the weather turning in the Northeast, but the inflation challenges are also cooling. The Federal Reserve’s (Fed) preferred inflation gauge, the PCE, was released at the end of August and came in at 2.5% month-over-month for July.
The early August sell-off could represent just the market taking a breather after seven months of fantastic returns and could be right back on track, albeit with additional volatility.
While the temperatures were rising, the U.S. stock market continued its climb higher as well. The S&P 500 returned 3.5% and Emerging Market stocks delivered an impressive 3.9%. Bonds also returned positively in June.
While early earnings guidance for Q2 is more a mixed bag, and not all months will look like this, May was a great month for equity investors. The adage, “Sell in May and go away” hasn’t seemed to work out so well over the last few decades.
In April, the recent stock market performance showed a slight drop, followed by a recovery in the S&P 500, while smaller companies faced challenges from higher interest rates. Despite this, the economic outlook remains positive, with moderate inflation and steady growth.
The S&P 500 index reached a record close this week, rising 0.4% and marking its strongest Q1 in five years with a 10% increase since the end of 2023.
January's U.S. Consumer Price Index report came in hotter than expected, leading to uncertainty in the markets regarding future interest rate cuts. Market expectations based on overnight index swaps have shifted, with projections now showing higher Federal Funds rates for 2024 and 2025. Despite volatility in both stock and bond markets, strong corporate earnings have helped stocks recover.
U.S. Stocks were positive in January as more Goldilocks economic data fueled investor optimism. U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) came at a +3.3% for Q4 2023, much stronger than the expected 2% gain.
2023 proved to be another year when the consensus views were not correct. A few of these views that turned out non-prescient were that inflation would remain elevated in mid-single digits or higher, higher interest rates would crush housing prices, consumer spending would collapse, and oil prices would continue to rise.
The change in tone from the Fed Chairman regarding inflation suggests that rates may have peaked. This month, we're highlighting the positive performance of the markets, with the S&P 500 approaching levels last seen in July. We're also experiencing an improvement in consumer confidence as things remain relatively healthy despite housing costs.
