Asset allocation decisions can be challenging for investors during the later stage of the business cycle. Focusing on quality is likely the best way to manage the transition from late expansion to a potential recession.
For some investors, increasing exposure to gold has been a knee-jerk reaction to bouts of heightened financial market volatility. Franklin Equity Group’s Steve Land says there’s more to gold than that. And he explains why he’s positive about both the prospects for gold and for gold equities.
What's driving the current market selloff?
Corporate results in the third quarter were excellent. Looking ahead, expectations for 10% earnings growth in 2019 looks far too optimistic and will likely be revised downward as the substantial jump in margins this year is unlikely to continue. Earnings are at risk of falling.
Here’s a recap of the second part of our podcast on multi-factor investing, examining the strategy’s potential pitfalls.
Volatility continues to be a key factor in the world oil market and the stocks of energy companies. We think the oil market still is at an early-recovery stage and the fundamentals of supply and demand remain solid.
Natural gas storage in the lower 48 states was below the five-year average as of October 31, according to the EIA. This, combined with a stronger-than-expected start to winter, prompted traders to push prices to a four-year high of $4.84 per MBtu. Meanwhile, natural gas futures trading hit an all-time daily volume record of 1.2 million contracts.
Today we’ll look at a new book by Ray Dalio called Principles for Navigating Big Debt Crises in which he examines those debt cycles and what we can do about them.
Currently, some market watchers have begun to openly question whether the bull market in stocks has finally come to an end. They certainly have cause to worry. Valuations are frothy after a record run-up in the last few years.
When volatility spikes, the ideal response is to call or, at best, meet in-person with your clients. But the advisors with whom I work have found that webinars are a far more cost-effective tool to allay clients’ fears about unsteady markets.
Here’s a recap of the first part of our podcast on multi-factor investing, answering frequently asked questions such as: What is a factor? What are some common factors? Why is multi-factor investing so popular today?
A look at how inflecting profit margins may ratchet up risk for borrowers.
The global QE landscape is changing.
Politics and economics are interwoven. Government grants licenses, enforces contracts and the rule of law, provides fire and police protection, a national defense, and can call on resources to recover from crisis. Without these institutions, activity would slow. No one is building billion-dollar hotels in Syria, Libya, or Iraq; stability and certainty support investment.
I’ve spent a great deal of time in past articles discussing the merits of portfolio optimization. In this article I will examine the merits and challenges of portfolio optimization in the context of one of the most challenging investment universes: managed futures.
I can guarantee a few things about Howard Marks’ new book, Mastering the Market Cycle. You will enjoy the thoughtful writing in clear language, and you will learn one great, and I believe correct, idea about the operation of markets.
As I have pointed out previously, the U.S. is currently running a nearly $1 Trillion dollar deficit during an economic expansion. This is completely contrary to the Keynesian economic theory.
How will the results of the U.S. midterm elections be reflected in trade agreements, legislation and international relations?
Contrary to conventional wisdom, Rieder argues that wage growth doesn’t lead to higher inflation, and in fact may even hold a dampening impact on inflation over time, which has important implications for how to judge monetary policy today.
Introduction This current series of articles could be summarized as a review of ways to construct and diversify a common stock portfolio. In part 1 found here I discussed various viewpoints on how many stocks a portfolio should hold. In Part 2A found here I presented and discussed Peter Lynch’s 6 general categories of stocks.
Starting today, the five-day festival known as Diwali—literally, “a row of lights”—will be observed by millions of Hindus, Sikhs and Jains worldwide. A celebration of good triumphing over evil, the festival typically coincides with the Hindu new year.
Here are four signs your firm is ready to take advantage of technologies that will help improve how you do business.
We have a normal economic calendar. Tuesday’s election will take center stage. Markets have less than expected interest in the election. Partly this reflects confidence in a split outcome, with no major policy changes.
I cannot think of a bigger waste of money than advisor marketing brochures. They stink. Here’s how to create collateral that the recipient will actually read.
Growth is determined by a perpetual tug-of-war between entrepreneurship and government redistribution. When President Obama was in office, we believed incredible technological innovation would allow for economic growth in spite of Obamacare, greater redistribution, higher taxes and increased regulatory burdens. We thought it would be a Plow Horse Economy, and that things would get better if we did not grow government so much.
Electrification of all transportation and heating is already a trend in motion, and it is going to change everything. The arrival of fusion energy will only make those changes even more dramatic. Commercial banks may cease to exist, fossil fuel prices will fall dramatically - some may even go to zero - and OPEC may be replaced by OLEC - the Organisation of Lithium Exporting Countries.
After the meeting on September 26 the FOMC published its dot plot and the expected path for the federal funds rate through the end of 2020. If all goes according to this script the federal funds rate will be raised in December, three more times in 2019...
The macro data from the past month continues to mostly point to positive growth. On balance, the evidence suggests the imminent onset of a recession is unlikely.
All good things come to an end, even economic growth cycles. The present one is getting long in the tooth. While it doesn’t have to end now, it will end eventually. Signs increasingly suggest we are approaching that point.
Speaking with Bloomberg’s Erik Schatzker this week, Taleb said the reason why he has reservations about today’s economy is that it suffers from the “same disease” as before. The meltdown in 2007 was a “crisis of debt,” and if anything, the problem has only worsened.
I am not optimistic about reversing the trend of the ever-rising estimates, but I found a way of substantially improving their accuracy and reliability, thereby enhancing the usefulness of reported earnings and asset values to investors.
As the stock market bull potentially nears the end of its run and we head into the last two months of 2018, many investors are making adjustments to their portfolios.
A central focus of the Trump administration has been to reduce the U.S. trade deficit and to force our trading partners – mostly China – to eliminate what he claims to be unfair trade practices. Yet former Fed Chair Janet Yellen doesn’t understand what Trump is doing.
Tax cuts in the US have led to an acceleration in US economic growth this year. In September, US unemployment reached its lowest level (3.7%) in almost 50 years. We expect this acceleration to be temporary as the fiscal stimulus begins to fade over the coming year.
Renewable energy has been gaining steam for many reasons, as have the investment opportunities in the space. Ketul Sakhpara, portfolio manager and research analyst, Franklin Real Asset Advisors, outlines the three main drivers of interest, and where his team sees potential.
In part 1 of this series titled “How Many Stocks Should I Own?” found here, I focused primarily on how many stocks an investor might need to hold in a stock portfolio for adequate diversification. In this part 2, my focus will shift to category selections.
My firm is having little success finding solid companies at attractive valuations. Don’t just take my word for it. Take a look at several charts, below, that show the magnitude of the stock market’s overvaluation and, more importantly, put it into historical context.
Gold performed precisely as we would expect it to. The price of the yellow metal jumped above its 100-day moving average, a bullish sign that could mean further moves to the upside if market volatility persists. Today gold was trading at a three-month high of $1,246 an ounce.
This year, there very well may be a political “October Surprise”, though as we write this we are running out of days in which one may occur (perhaps the recent spate of “pipe bomb” deliveries to prominent Democrats qualifies, though the actual sender of those bombs remains highly questionable).
When the February market correction ended, I had the lingering feeling that not enough damage had been done to investor complacency to provide for a sustained move higher. In spite of that, the major indexes continued to plow ahead.
Templeton Global Macro Chief Investment Officer Dr. Michael Hasenstab and Vice President and Deputy Director of Research, Dr. Calvin Ho, discuss emerging-market turbulence, the persistent concerns around trade policy and divergent growth trends in the developed world.
Anthony Eames is a vice president of Eaton Vance Management and director of responsible investment strategy. In this interview, he discusses the emerging trends in ESG/SRI products and how advisors can better serve their clients with responsible investing solutions.
Stop by to see us at booth 300 in the exhibit hall, where you’ll have a chance to talk with our product representatives.
One of the ways I help my clients make sure their website communicates their message at the same or better level than they can do in-person is by making sure they lead with a strong “brand statement” on their homepage.
Whether or not one believes in the “October Effect,” investors can’t be blamed for giving it credence this year. Worries about trade, the Federal Reserve and global growth roiled the markets as the fourth quarter began. Even U.S. equities—which had roared through the third quarter as investors focused on positive economic data—succumbed to the selloff that gripped risk assets.
Mike Van Wyk is a senior market research manager at American Funds, part of Capital Group. His research has revealed several secrets that high-net worth investors keep from their advisors, and what advisors can do to reveal them. Visit us in the exhibit hall at booth 463 to learn about our latest research on high net worth clients and discover ways to serve them better. American Funds Distributors, Inc.
For those who initiated reverse mortgages prior to the October 2017 rule change, the old rules still apply. However, the situation changed significantly for new loans after that date. Where do we stand one year removed from those changes?
Di Zhou and Jim Gassman are co-managers of the Thornburg Better World International Fund (TBWIX), a global ESG fund. Since its inception on 9/30/15, through 9/30/18, the fund has earned an annualized rate of return of 10.96%, outperforming its benchmark, the MSCI ACWI Ex-US USD index, by 117 basis points. As of 9/30/18, the fund has been rated five stars by Morningstar. Stop by to see us at booth #388 (near the Bear & Bull Pub) in the exhibit hall, where you’ll have a chance to talk with our product representatives and pick up our latest features in the Wall Street Transcript and Value Investor Insight.
Hungary isn’t known today as one of the world’s top gold producing countries. There was a time, though, when it accounted for around three quarters of Europe’s entire output of the yellow metal, if you can believe it. According to historian Peter Sugar’s A History of Hungary, the central European country was a “veritable El Dorado” in the 14th century, and its gold pieces circulated widely across the entire continent, competing with those minted in Italy and England.
Global central bankers, finance ministers and representatives from the private sector and civic groups gathered in Bali recently for the annual meetings of the IMF (International Monetary Fund)/World Bank Group. Below are 10 key takeaways from the discussions.
The current widespread optimism about the US economy is largely justified, in our view, by its strong fundamentals, particularly the positive backdrop for consumers. Despite the economy’s robust growth, we do not view the recent rise in US Treasury yields as heralding the start of a major selloff across bond markets.
