Anderson Griggs

Whatever happens with Covid-19 and how we ultimately deal with it, be it a vaccine or medication or a change in behavior, we will adapt individually and together as a society.

A 45 Year History of One Family’s Success

Investment results are easily measured on an absolute basis. Because they are so easily measured, academics, financial advisors, asset allocators, consultants, individuals and a host of others have devoted a lifetime to scrutinizing the results of others.

Many times over the past twenty years we have discussed our mentors, those great investors who have influenced our thoughts, opinions, methods, techniques, stock selection and portfolio construction. We’ve shared the words and writings of Benjamin Graham, John Templeton, Marty Whitman, Bernard Baruch, Philip Fisher and so many others who deserve our thanks.

It seems that we are at a point in time where a large portion of investors believe that machines can replace human intelligence in the field of portfolio management, resulting in higher risk adjusted returns at a substantially lower cost.

There have been many new approaches to portfolio management. As all professional advisors should, I take the time to explore these new approaches. Yet it seems that each new approach is simply a minor change to the long standing acceptance that risk is the volatility of current asset prices.

Alma Volker scribbled the note, quoted above, in the margin of a 1911 economics textbook, Outlines of Economics, written by Vassar College Professor Herbert Elmer Mills. Later her son, Paul Volker, who has served six presidents over his long career in public service, shared his regret of never discussing economics with his Mom in his recent book Keeping At It.

Old Big Red sprung a leak a while back. Many of you are familiar with Big Red, but there are a few of you who might need an introduction. Big Red is my 18-year-old Chevy Silverado 2500 HD. I realize this may not be the type of vehicle driven by the majority of bankers, money managers, financial advisors, or brokers...

In today’s world, where politics take up the majority of news cycles and there is an ongoing war of words between the two major political parties, I decided for this letter to replace our often used phrase “conservative investor” with “cautious investor.

The boring truth of financial analysis and portfolio management is that the majority of our days are spent visiting with clients, reading, reading, reading, and when required, making decisions. Years ago it would have included quite a bit of time on a calculator, but thanks to the low cost of computers and software, most of the number crunching can now be completed with the push of button.

What we can learn about the current state of our economy by traveling and visiting with others outside of our home turf is amazing. For many of us in the investment business, our view of the economy is easily warped by statistical reports and interpretations prepared by professional economists.

From the time I was a little tyke, I knew the benefits of having cash available to make a purchase. With it I could easily buy something under very favorable terms when others were in desperate need of that cash.

We have all been taught to “play by the rules” since the very beginning of our lives. Our parents did the best they could to teach us rules of proper behavior. That list of rules continued to grow longer the older we got, governing our day to day interactions with others.

In one of our meetings, Justin asked a question of me. He said, “Why is it that the only investment managers telling people to be careful are old timers like you? Jeremy Grantham of GMO, whose seven year forecast is negative in all asset classes other than emerging markets. Howard Marks, whose most recent memo “There They Go Again…Again” strongly suggests people be cautious in their investing today.

Most of us believe that experience in an occupation, measured by time spent on the job, leads to higher productivity for the employer and greater income for the employee. I agree that this belief holds true for most occupations.