The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for U.S. growth, employment, interest rates and inflation.
Forecasting economic outcomes is a challenging exercise, even under steady conditions. Geopolitical events have only added to the complexity facing economies worldwide.
The longer the U.S. debt is left to grow, the harder it will be to correct.
The U.S. economy’s remarkable resilience is complicating the lives of investors and the Federal Reserve. Despite war-disrupted commodity markets and one of the most aggressive monetary tightening phases in modern history, economic activity has remained strong.
The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for major markets in the months ahead.
There is renewed anxiety among central bankers in the face of sticky inflation.
In many respects, COVID-19 was not a temporary disruption.
The Fed is likely to lay the groundwork for a pause, and push back against an early pivot.
The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for key markets in the month ahead.
The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for growth, employment, inflation and interest rates.
The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for growth, inflation and interest rates.
The economics teams reflects on six themes that defined an extraordinary year.
The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for the U.S. economy.
The outlook for the fourth quarter and beyond is positive, but the recovery remains uneven. The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for key markets in the month ahead.
The Delta variant’s impact on supply chains and domestic spending slowed economic activity in the third quarter. Consumer confidence dipped noticeably, and businesses’ outlook dimmed somewhat. Rising inflation, the product of goods and labor shortages, has been a concern.
Delta has the potential to alter the path of recovery; central banks are rising to face heavy challenges; and U.S. states have survived a major stress event.
Labor markets are changing course. When will the Fed do the same? India's second wave will disrupt activity elsewhere.
National corporate tax policies need global coordination; U.S. unemployment rates don't tell the full story.
Over the past month, the expectations of growth in the year ahead have surged, with fixed income markets repricing and investors shifting allocations in anticipation of growth.
Weighing the costs of global vaccine access, minimum wage and the energy rally.
A strong economic rebound is expected towards the middle of the year, followed by a return to more normal growth in 2022.
Are proposed fiscal policies and student debt forgiveness too much of a good thing?
Any surge in inflation will likely not last for long, but Italy's economic troubles and the shift in rental markets may endure.
Emerging markets seek a sustainable solution to debts, and the Fed takes a step toward sustainability.
Faster vaccination and bigger stimulus can pave the way to a better year, and agriculture subsidies upset trade relationships.
The Senate outcome opens the door to future cooperation, while Brexit sets the stage for future frictions.
A variety of data sources show we are closer to normal, but not fully recovered.
From global responses to local lockdowns, we all witnessed dramatic changes in 2020.
Promising developments surrounding vaccination give us hope that 2021 will be a better than year than the one that is about to end.
While some indicators are slowing, we are optimistic for a better year ahead.
Yellen is a good candidate for a tough job, and we review the outlooks for U.S. holiday spending and trade in Asia.
Fair trade over free trade will remain the theme in Washington.
The Northern Trust Economics team forecasts the U.S. economy’s continued recovery.
Our election 2020 coverage concludes with a look at the nation’s physical and human capital.
Fostering immigration, encouraging family expansion, and stopping COVID-19 are tough problems with no easy solutions.
The environment is one of many sets of regulations under consideration.
U.S. Healthcare Reform Proposals, Childcare Needed to Support Workers, Past U.S. Debt Recovery Won’t Repeat.
Our election 2020 coverage begins with fiscal policy, security risks that are slowing foreign investment, and legislative standstills.
Brexit takes an uncertain turn, while the Fed seeks loan borrowers and parents welcome adult children back home.
Breakout inflation is not our top concern. Europe explores support for national champions, and the U.S. unemployment rate masks some fragility.
The Northern Trust Economics team forecasts the U.S. economy’s recovery from COVID-19.
The Kansas City Fed’s annual Monetary Policy Symposium at Jackson Hole is a signature event for those of us who follow central banks. The conference typically doesn’t generate much front-page news: the subject matter is usually more technical and conceptual than a broad audience would appreciate. But 2020 is not a typical year.
The Northern Trust Economics team forecasts the U.S. economy’s recovery from a record-breaking decline.
The first wave of the economic recovery has generally exceeded expectations, but the recent surges in COVID-19 cases could deliver a setback.
COVID-19’s path is evident everywhere we look: spending, saving, staffing, sentiment, and sports.
The journey to a full recovery will be a long one, but at least we’ve taken some initial steps.