Pullbacks are normal, but every time is scary. And every time we need to pay attention. But in the end, although there are real risks out there, right now everything is still fairly normal, in our view. We will be keeping an eye on things, but the best course of action remains simply this: keep calm and carry on.

Every year or two, a new round of worries crops up. Some of them are real—the war in Ukraine, inflation, politics—but a surprising number are not. The challenge, of course, is telling which is which.

Markets rose last month, continuing November’s rally as interest rates pulled back even more on expectations of Fed rate cuts in 2024.

When we put together economic and market outlooks, we typically focus on the near term—the next month, the next quarter, or the next year.

Markets improved last month across the board as interest rates pulled back on signs of slowing growth. U.S. markets were up by high-single to low-double digits, while international markets were also up by high-single digits.

There were two stories that mattered this week: interest rates and the jobs report for September. For the week as a whole, rate increases seem to have taken away from markets, as they tanked on an increase in the U.S. 10-year yield from about 4.6 percent to 4.8 percent.

August saw modest market pullbacks across the board, as investors were nervous about risk.

July was another good month for stocks across the board. The U.S. indices were up in the low single digits, while international markets also did well. Riskier investments like the Nasdaq and emerging markets did best.

After a continued rally in April, markets largely pulled back in May. Exceptions here were the Nasdaq, which rose, and the S&P 500, which was essentially flat.

After moderate gains in March, markets continued to rally in April. U.S. markets were up by low single digits, while bond markets were moderately positive. International markets were mixed, with developed markets showing modest gains while emerging markets ticked down.

The big economic story today will be the end of the regular meeting of the Fed and what it decides to do about interest rates. Markets are expecting a 25 bp increase, to a range of 5 percent to 5.25 percent, with a slight bet on no hike at all.

We are at the start of the period when companies release their results for the first quarter of 2023, known as earnings season. With everything going on—inflation, rate hikes, a labor shortage, the weakness of the dollar, a pending recession, the list goes on and on...

I have been getting a lot of questions around the dollar in recent weeks. De-dollarization seems to be a thing, as do central bank digital currencies, along with the latest round of worries about what the government is going to do to our savings.

There is a lot riding on the monthly jobs report, which comes out tomorrow. For the economy, more jobs are good: more workers, more wage income, more spending ability, and so forth. There’s no real downside.

After a weak February, markets rallied in March. U.S. markets were up by low single digits, while bond markets were in the same range. International markets also showed modest gains, with developed markets about the same as the U.S. and emerging markets doing slightly better.

There has been surprisingly little worry reported by advisors and readers in the past couple of weeks.

Yesterday, the Fed completed its regular meeting and announced that it would increase interest rates by 25 bps, or a quarter percentage point.

When you look at expectations for corporate earnings for the third quarter, you get a bunch of mixed messages.

The latest jobs market headlines have been discouraging.

We are now in another downswing in the ongoing bear market.

Yesterday’s inflation print was a big surprise—a bad one.

August was a resumption of the earlier pullback after a surprisingly strong July.

The big question on everyone’s mind is, why is the market going down?

July was a surprisingly good month for financial markets, with the greatest monthly gains since 2020.

One of the headlines I have been asked about recently is the strong dollar. People are concerned about what it means, how it could hurt the U.S. economy, and, of course, how it will affect their investments. Good questions all.

As we move into the second half of 2022, there are lots of things to worry about.

We hit a milestone just recently, although it’s certainly not one we wanted to hit.

Markets stabilized in May after one of the worst months since the start of the pandemic.

Yesterday was another bad down day in the markets.

April was a hard month for the markets.

The economy seems to be doing well, with job growth still at high levels, consumer spending still healthy, and businesses continuing to invest.

Markets rebounded in March, but it was not enough to offset earlier losses in January and February.

We saw a bit of a bounce in stock markets in March, but not enough to recover from a terrible first quarter.

We’ve talked a lot about higher interest rates and what they mean for the market.

I have been holding off on commenting on the Russia-Ukraine conflict until some sort of resolution occurred.

January was a terrible month.

The official jobs report comes out this Friday. Expectations are for another slowdown, with about 175,000 jobs added, down from 199,000 in December.

The panic of the day is the news about interest rates.

We are just starting earnings season, when companies will be reporting how much money they made in the fourth quarter of last year.

As we closed out 2021, the world looked both different from a year ago and very much the same. Another wave of the virus was underway, with a new variant that may be even worse than the one before.

Inflation and what it means for investing is one of the biggest issues I have been hearing about recently. The topic can generate quite a bit of anxiety. But before we start to worry, let’s take some time to understand what actually happens when inflation hits the economy. Then we can panic—or not.

It’s been a while, but it’s time for another COVID update. Compared with a month ago, the medical situation continues to improve, which is good news, although there are reasons to be concerned over the next month or two.

After a great start to the quarter in July and August, September was when the storms hit. Here in the U.S., markets pulled back significantly.

For those who haven’t heard, global markets slumped yesterday as a Chinese real estate developer, Evergrande, was reported to be approaching bankruptcy. For many, this news brings to mind the great financial crisis of 2008.

U.S. equity markets continued to rally in August, with all three major indices setting new record highs during the month. We did see some midmonth volatility, but the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.50 percent, while the S&P 500 experienced a 3.04 percent gain.

My colleague Sam Millette, manager, fixed income, on Commonwealth’s Investment Management and Research team, has helped me put together this month’s Market Risk Update.

Yesterday was an interesting day.

If we could travel back in time to the beginning of 2020, many of us would be surprised at how good things were.

The regular meeting of the Fed starts today.