Looking Back at the Markets in November and Ahead to December 2023
Markets improved last month across the board as interest rates pulled back on signs of slowing growth. U.S. markets were up by high-single to low-double digits, while international markets were also up by high-single digits.
What Mattered This Week? Interest Rates and the Jobs Report
There were two stories that mattered this week: interest rates and the jobs report for September. For the week as a whole, rate increases seem to have taken away from markets, as they tanked on an increase in the U.S. 10-year yield from about 4.6 percent to 4.8 percent.
What Mattered This Week? The Real Economy
Last week was all about financial factors, primarily interest rates. But this week was all about the real economy, notably the United Auto Workers (UAW) strike and the pending government shutdown. Indeed, worries about a recession rose on those two risks.
Looking Back at the Markets in July and Ahead to August 2023
July was another good month for stocks across the board. The U.S. indices were up in the low single digits, while international markets also did well. Riskier investments like the Nasdaq and emerging markets did best.
Looking Back at the Markets in April and Ahead to May 2023
After moderate gains in March, markets continued to rally in April. U.S. markets were up by low single digits, while bond markets were moderately positive. International markets were mixed, with developed markets showing modest gains while emerging markets ticked down.
What the Fed Will Do—and Why
The big economic story today will be the end of the regular meeting of the Fed and what it decides to do about interest rates. Markets are expecting a 25 bp increase, to a range of 5 percent to 5.25 percent, with a slight bet on no hike at all.
All Eyes on Earnings Season: What to Expect for Q1 2023
We are at the start of the period when companies release their results for the first quarter of 2023, known as earnings season. With everything going on—inflation, rate hikes, a labor shortage, the weakness of the dollar, a pending recession, the list goes on and on...
The Case Against the Collapse of the Dollar
I have been getting a lot of questions around the dollar in recent weeks. De-dollarization seems to be a thing, as do central bank digital currencies, along with the latest round of worries about what the government is going to do to our savings.
Strong Jobs Report Could Spell Trouble for Markets
There is a lot riding on the monthly jobs report, which comes out tomorrow. For the economy, more jobs are good: more workers, more wage income, more spending ability, and so forth. There’s no real downside.
Looking Back at the Markets in Q1 and Ahead to Q2 2023
After a weak February, markets rallied in March. U.S. markets were up by low single digits, while bond markets were in the same range. International markets also showed modest gains, with developed markets about the same as the U.S. and emerging markets doing slightly better.
Time to Panic About the Strong Dollar?
One of the headlines I have been asked about recently is the strong dollar. People are concerned about what it means, how it could hurt the U.S. economy, and, of course, how it will affect their investments. Good questions all.
2022 Market and Economic Outlook: Finding the Upside
As we closed out 2021, the world looked both different from a year ago and very much the same. Another wave of the virus was underway, with a new variant that may be even worse than the one before.
Inflation and Investing
Inflation and what it means for investing is one of the biggest issues I have been hearing about recently. The topic can generate quite a bit of anxiety. But before we start to worry, let’s take some time to understand what actually happens when inflation hits the economy. Then we can panic—or not.
Markets and Economy Retain Momentum—But Risks Remain
It’s been a while, but it’s time for another COVID update. Compared with a month ago, the medical situation continues to improve, which is good news, although there are reasons to be concerned over the next month or two.
Will Evergrande Take Down China and the World Markets?
For those who haven’t heard, global markets slumped yesterday as a Chinese real estate developer, Evergrande, was reported to be approaching bankruptcy. For many, this news brings to mind the great financial crisis of 2008.
Monthly Market Risk Update: September 2021
U.S. equity markets continued to rally in August, with all three major indices setting new record highs during the month. We did see some midmonth volatility, but the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.50 percent, while the S&P 500 experienced a 3.04 percent gain.