Outlooks for higher education and healthcare are the weakest while transportation and essential utilities are the strongest. Resiliency to withstand an economic downturn is strong for all sectors.
Last week in my 2025 forecast letter, I predicted A Partly Cloudy Year, generally mild but with occasional storms. Today we’ll talk about the second half of that sentence. What could go wrong and lead to a worse-than-expected year? In short, what are the main risks to my forecast?
We understand that the monetary policy playbook since the Bernanke Fed and the Great Financial Crisis has changed considerably.
The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act that President Donald Trump signed into law in December 2017 imposed a $10,000 limit on the amount of state and local taxes that can be deducted on a federal income tax return.
Donald Trump’s return to the White House will likely protect US stocks from a big selloff, according to Bank of America Corp. strategists, as investors focus on his protectionist agenda and proposals for lower corporate taxes.
A look at how the renewable energy opportunity may and may not change.
As we close the chapter on Biden’s presidency, we take a moment to reflect on his legacy.
Strong U.S. economic data has spurred a strong rise in Treasury yields but a tepid response in the stock market. Uncertainty likely will continue in coming months.
New policies could disrupt markets, but high starting yields and strong demand for income should provide ballast.
Surging long-term interest rates and stubborn inflation are inflaming divisions among congressional Republicans over paying for the sweeping tax cuts Donald Trump promised, complicating the path to passage with the party’s already tenuous majority.
Canada’s stock market — where returns have lagged the US for two straight years — might offer investors protection against a downturn in US stocks, a Toronto-based asset manager says.
In response to the 2008 stock market and real estate crash, the Federal Reserve stimulated the economy by reducing interest rates to (almost) zero under its zero interest-rate policy (ZIRP). It “printed money” that amazingly did not bring serious inflation, yet.
With all eyes focused on the White House, investors must decide what the incoming President’s policies will mean for markets and how to position accordingly. Ahead of the inauguration, we asked our portfolio managers what they think should be front of mind.
U.S. Treasury yields have increased notably since September, particularly at the long end of the curve, with the 10-year yield up over 100 basis points from its recent lows. We unpack the drivers behind this big move in rates and our outlook for bonds going forward.
As we step into 2025, it’s time to revisit our expectations for the markets and provide an updated perspective for investors.
Reflecting ongoing uncertainty around inflation and the trajectory of monetary policy, yield volatility posed challenges in 2024. Yet it also highlighted the importance of tax-efficient strategies like loss harvesting in fixed income portfolios.
The Northern Trust Economics team shares an outlook for U.S. growth, inflation, employment and interest rates.
While stocks can move higher, the bond market will continue to matter. Higher rates suggest that equity leadership may continue to reside in companies that are relatively rate insensitive.
Despite challenges, the U.S. market saw strong returns in 2024 with a "soft landing" for the economy, leading to key questions and emerging themes for investors in 2025.
Friday’s rip-roaring jobs report has pushed the betting markets to price in a single rate cut for the entire year of 2025.
Whether you’re speaking with Europe’s largest money manager, Australia’s giant pension funds, or a cash-rich insurer in Japan, there’s a resounding message you’ll hear when it comes to US Treasuries: They are still hard to beat.
Wall Street breathed a sigh of relief after a surprise slowdown in inflation spurred a stock rally and a plunge in bond yields, reinforcing bets the Federal Reserve is on track to keep cutting rates this year.
The latest updates on the labor market and consumer prices show President-elect Donald Trump inherits an economy where inflation is poised to return to the Federal Reserve’s target later this year.
Amid an unsettled global economic outlook and elevated equity valuations, bond markets present attractive yields and important diversification benefits.
Donald Trump and Republicans support sweeping changes that could affect the economy, markets and investors. But narrow margins in Congress could complicate that agenda.
No country wants external developments to drive up its borrowing costs and weaken its currency, which is what the UK is facing today, together with serious cyclical and structural challenges. But if the British government responds appropriately, recent market volatility might turn out to have a silver lining.
Use this guide to transform our 2024 Retirement Insights into action in 2025, focusing on areas of plan design, tax credits and participant engagement. Our Mike Dullaghan shares the highlights.
Although we are loath to make predictions, conditions appear to be favorable for fixed income in the coming year, and we think investors should consider adjusting their allocations accordingly.
The US housing market faces a delicate balancing act in 2025, influenced by effects of the pandemic and persistently high mortgage rates.
The threat of tariffs is ramping up ahead of the inauguration of President-elect Donald Trump. This is pushing up silver and copper prices.
Advisors who refine their tech stacks and focus on actionable solutions will thrive. Likewise, wealthtech companies that prioritize delivering meaningful outcomes will rise to meet the industry’s new standards.
US government bonds surged as benign inflation data prompted traders to resume their bets on additional Federal Reserve interest rate cuts by July.
The strong performance of large-cap stocks over the past decade has left the market exceptionally top-heavy. By some measures, stock market capitalization has never been more concentrated among a handful of large stocks as today.
US equities had a stellar 2024, with the S&P 500 up 25%, but the year ended on a softer note. The sharp rise in bond yields has caught the market's eye
The global economic landscape continues to evolve, and 2025 promises to be a year of adaptation and resilience.
Nothing is more fundamental to the current health of the economy than jobs creation and income growth.
Uncertainty with regard to interest rate policy warrants an active management strategy inherent in the Vanguard Short Duration Bond ETF.
Wall Street was set for a higher open on Tuesday, though a renewed rise in Treasury yields damped the sentiment boost offered earlier by the prospect of gradually imposed US trade tariffs.
Ten years ago, Research Affiliates launched the Asset Allocation Interactive online tool, making our CMEs freely available to the public. With one full cycle complete, we can see what has worked well and where we can improve.
Traders are bracing for one of the most volatile earnings periods in stock market history.
As we kick off 2025, the economic landscape showcased a strong economy and resilient job market even as higher interest rates weigh on market sentiment. This week’s data underscore the delicate interplay between inflation expectations, real growth, and the Federal Reserve’s policy stance.
Managing Director, Washington Policy Analyst Ed Mills looks at how several of the top market-relevant Washington DC issues could play out in 2025.
We identify four categories of risks to the growth outlook.
The journey from niche asset to core allocation looks set to continue.
The December PMI report, released on January 5, 2025, indicates that the U.S. services sector continued to grow, albeit at a measured pace, suggesting resilience in certain areas of the economy.
Every new year brings with it a new opportunity to stop for a moment, revisit resolutions, and refresh outlooks.
The Roaring 2020s have been very good so far, but not exceptional when examined in isolation. That said, when viewed in the context of the past 16 years, this record-breaking bull market is spectacular.
The question asked of me most often recently: "Why are bond yields rising?" After verbally answering it plenty of times, it's time to put my answer in writing for everyone else to see.
When and how will new policies take shape?
We are pro-risk, with the biggest overweight in U.S. stocks, yet eye three areas that could spur a view change.
