The strong performance of large-cap stocks over the past decade has left the market exceptionally top-heavy. By some measures, stock market capitalization has never been more concentrated among a handful of large stocks as today.

During each speculative run-up in asset prices – whether the dot-com bubble, the housing bubble, or more recently the rapid rise (and fall) of the stocks of electric vehicle companies – there’s typically a moment when Wall Street strategists, analysts, and investors go all-in on that theme.

A recent survey asking economists about the probability of recession next quarter shows a retreat in expectations from a high of 47 percent at the end of 2022 to just 34 percent, according to the Philadelphia Federal Reserve.