Hoisington Investment Management Co., the bond manager known for its bullish stance on US Treasuries going back more than 30 years, has turned bearish.

Is it a bubble or isn’t it? That’s what everyone seems to be asking about the US stock market. I say it isn’t. A bubble to me is when price becomes disconnected from any rational, articulable value, the way people chased opaque schemes in the Roaring 1920s or the blind faith in new internet companies in the 1990s.

Builder confidence edged lower in July as ongoing affordability challenges continue to affect the housing market. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index (HMI) fell 2 points from June to 34 this month, marking the 27th consecutive negative reading.

The National Association of Realtors® (NAR) pending home sales index sank 5.4% in June to 72.5, the lowest level since January.

Captain Ahab never caught Moby Dick, but Morgan Stanley shows how tracking billionaire tech whales like Elon Musk can eventually land a fortune. Not long ago, the bank appeared to have shot itself in the foot as lead lender on the disastrous $44 billion buyout of social media platform Twitter, now known as X.

General Douglas MacArthur once remarked that “rules are mostly made to be broken.” He was at odds with U.S. President Harry Truman over the conduct of the Korean War, feeling that the restrictions placed on his forces weren’t supportive of success.

Eli Lilly & Co. agreed to buy AtaiBeckley Inc. for as much as $3.8 billion, underscoring growing interest from large drugmakers in the once-fringe area of psychedelic medicine.

This paper presents the case for emerging market (EM) allocations within the broader context of global investment strategy. In a period of heightened geopolitical complexity—spanning the 2026 US-Iran conflict, challenges to globalization, political transformation and ongoing great power competition—we believe the case for engaged emerging markets exposure has never been stronger.

In June we pointed out that Health Care looks cheap. Even though it has been rallying hard of late, the sector continues to trade at a 59% price-to-sales discount to the S&P 500, despite having an 18% return on equity (ROE) that is just a hair below the 19% ROE accorded the S&P 500.

Although economic conditions did not change much between the first and second quarters, investors were far more bullish in the second quarter.

For decades, traditional index-based ETFs have served as the low-cost foundational anchor for core allocations, consistently demonstrating that outperforming a broad market index is an uphill battle.

After a difficult start to the year, investor sentiment reached a low point near the end of March as concerns around inflation, geopolitics, and rising interest rates weighed on risk assets.

We had a data center at my first banking job. It was a dusty room filled with old Federal Reserve Bulletins, Economic Reports of the Presidents, and annual reports from the International Monetary Fund. I was the search engine, and the operation was powered by caffeine.

What were the key takeaways from last month’s numbers? Our corporate bond specialists look back at the market’s performance and provide incisive commentary to help you make sense of what drove the market—and what may be on the horizon for fixed income investors.

BlackRock Inc. pulled in $192 billion of net client cash in the second quarter, with investors pouring money into exchange-traded funds and pushing total assets above $15 trillion for the first time.

The median house price in Nantucket, Massachusetts, is nearly $4 million. It was just $500,000 in 1995. This sounds like a stunning increase in one of the hottest and least accessible real estate markets in the country.

The current level of stock market valuations remains – easily – the most speculative extreme in U.S. financial history, beyond both the 1929 and 2000 extremes. Our baseline estimate is that the S&P 500 has a material risk of losing something on the order of 75% over the completion of this cycle.

Investors should consider where in the capital structure they are best compensated for risk. Equity may offer income with upside potential from active asset management, whereas debt may offer income with downside mitigation.

The first half of 2026 reinforced an important lesson for fixed income investors: Tax-loss harvesting opportunities don’t always arrive at year-end, often appearing during short periods of market dislocation when interest rates rise, new-issue supply increases or investor sentiment shifts.

The tech-heavy NASDAQ benefited from a semiconductor rebound and renewed enthusiasm for AI infrastructure names. The Dow, weighted more toward “old economy” stocks than high-growth names, captured none of last week’s gains.

LPL Research examines how sticky inflation, Fed leadership changes, and AI-driven borrowing are shaping the fixed income outlook for 2026.

Historically, many in the pension industry viewed funding above the "plan termination level" as having little incremental value. Once a plan reached “plan termination level”, thought of as roughly 110% funding, conventional wisdom suggested additional surplus had little economic value because it is effectively "trapped capital."

It has been an eventful six months, and we are delighted that the Equity Dislocation Strategy has risen to the occasion. The Strategy generated a 9.05% net return in the first half of 2026, compared with a 1.3% return for MSCI ACWI Value minus MSCI ACWI Growth, a broad proxy for the value-growth spread.

The Fed's recent shift into a more hawkish mode creates concern about banking profits later this year, but second-quarter results are seen strong thanks to IPOs, mergers.

Regardless of how inflation is measured or debated, households continue to feel the cumulative effect of higher prices. The cost of goods and services have risen at a high pace over the past several years, and wage growth has not always kept pace evenly across households.

After a wild last 12 months in a technology stock boom – and more recent volatility – the question du jour, in our view, is not whether AI is transformative.

Every major geopolitical crisis has two types of effects: those that occur during the crisis itself and those that remain on a long-term basis, perhaps even permanently. The US-Iran conflict is no exception.

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index rose 2.1 points to 97.4, reaching its highest level since February. However, the index remains below its historical average for a fourth straight month.

This series has been updated to include the June release of the consumer price index as the deflator and the monthly employment update. The latest hypothetical real (inflation-adjusted) annual earnings are at $54,560, down 5.7% from over 50 years ago.

To close the visibility gap, analysis must begin with the “borrower model,” not the fund. Once you know the types of businesses in a portfolio, their industry, revenue band, and geography, you can evaluate them against a statistically robust universe of similarly situated companies.

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics said Tuesday that the Consumer Price Index fell 0.4% in June, bringing the inflation rate over the past 12 months down to 3.5%. That’s good but not good enough. Inflation is still too high.

A client called me last week wanting to know how to claim a $7,500 tax refund he thought he’d missed. His question was based on an email sent in early July to Social Security recipients from Frank J. Bisignano, commissioner of the Social Security Administration.

What’s good for the US dollar isn’t always good for US bonds — but investors are finding ways to work around it.

Fixed income investors continue to grapple with an uncertain macro environment, dominated by higher-for-longer interest rates and a new-look U.S. Federal Reserve, in which rate hikes may be forthcoming. Rather than make a directional bet on interest rates to combat duration risk, consider floating-rate ETFs, a compelling option.

Over the past few weeks, data has continued to point to a U.S. labor market that is healing after showing signs of weakness starting in late 2024 and persisting for nearly the entirety of 2025—a condition that spurred the Fed to cut rates even as inflation remained stuck above its 2 percent target.

The first wave of upgrades came after the AI hyperscalers reported, by and large, strong earnings. But most of the improvement has stemmed from the rest of the non-financials index, with analysts quadrupling their one-year aggregate EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) growth expectations, from 5% at the end of January to more than 20% as of 30 June.

If you knew you were standing inside a stock market bubble, you wouldn’t be standing in it for long. You’d sell. So would I, and so would everyone reading this. And if spotting market bubbles was something everyone could do in real time, the bubble couldn’t form in the first place.

Given how crucial the fixed income sleeve can be to one’s portfolio, the recent concerns over inflation have caused many advisors and investors to rethink how they go about their exposure. This includes debating over active and passive funds, and reevaluating the type of bond duration that is most attractive at this moment.

Morningstar data shows most active strategies lag passive indexes, but selective active fixed income ETFs can generate alpha.

The continued growth of active ETFs reflects a broader shift in portfolio construction across the advisory industry. Advisors increasingly seek investment vehicles that combine flexibility, transparency, scalability, and tax-aware implementation. Dividend growth strategies may align particularly well with the ETF structure because both emphasize long-term investor outcomes and efficient portfolio implementation.

The Federal Reserve’s plans for interest rates in the second half of 2026 appear very much up in the air. That said, advisors and fixed income investors may want to renew their focus on short duration bonds and related ETFs.

Investors are flocking back to Apple Inc. as nervousness about artificial intelligence spending weighs on the stocks of chipmakers and cloud-computing giants.

The official data will be released tomorrow, but if past trends continue, the US inflation rate will come in higher than most Americans are used to, but still relatively low.

What makes this earnings setup truly unique is the behavior of Wall Street analysts over the last 90 days. Because corporate guidance tends to be conservative, analysts historically cut estimates ahead of time.

The AI capex risk profile has gotten sharper since then, and the argument needs tightening in a few places. The bull case and the tail risk are now the same buildout, but they are running in different directions.

Despite geopolitical headwinds, the broader macro backdrop remained constructive in the first half of the year. Economic growth proved resilient, consumers kept spending and the S&P 500 gained 10%. That favorable mix drove strong earnings growth, with S&P 500 earnings rising 27% year over year in 1Q26, led by the tech sector.

Markets enter the second half of 2026 facing a familiar wall of worry—geopolitical conflict, oil prices, inflation, Federal Reserve policy, and questions around the durability of an AI-led equity rally. Yet the economic backdrop still looks resilient: growth remains solid, inflation has moderated, unemployment is reasonable, and market leadership appears to be broadening.

Fixed income experts James Donahue, John Lloyd and Mike Talaga revisit the levels of supply related to the AI buildout and explain why they remain cautious towards investment grade tech issuance.

Traditionally speaking, folks that have looked to tap into innovation in the AI space have done so through tech exposure, particularly with mega-cap names. This is not a surprise, considering the interplay between these companies and AI innovation. However, healthcare also has many opportunities for innovation.

Discover the top 10 most-read charts from the first half of 2026, covering historic market valuations, record margin debt, recession indicators, and global index performance.