Will 2030 DC plans perform better at preparing U.S. workers for retirement?

The healthcare sector offers a compelling mix of defensive characteristics and growth potential driven by innovation. It also features ample dispersion that presents stock pickers with an opportunity to parse potential leaders and laggards in pursuit of above-market return.

High-yield bonds have been one of the best-performing bond investments so far this year, but there may be better entry points down the road.

The latest retail sales report seems to have given Wall Street something to cheer about. Headlines touting resilience in consumer spending increased hopes of a “soft landing” boosting the stock market.

The most glaring uncertainties today, which contributed to early August seeing some of the largest market moves in the last several years, are the risks associated with the Federal Reserve’s dual mandate.

Portfolio managers should always have good explanations for their underweight positions. These days, it matters more than ever.

With US payroll and unemployment data surprising to the downside two Fridays ago, Treasury markets quickly repriced the probability of impending recession, helping set off a volatility spike in stocks across the world. According to Bloomberg, economists’ consensus probability of a US recession in the next twelve months is now approximately 30%.

After a downward slide at the end of July and beginning of August, markets are attempting to recover losses. Through Friday, the S&P 500 experienced seven consecutive “up” days. Three of these up days qualified as “outlier” days (more than +/-1.50%).

A Soft Landing Scenario Is Still a Realistic Base Case.

My colleague Will Keenan recommended an outstanding book, The Professor, the Banker, and the Suicide King, by Michael Craig. The book is a short and entertaining read of how Andy Beal played the best poker players in the world heads-up. He not only gambled toe-to-toe, but he also reminded them that they were doing what everyone should think poker is: gambling.

Elevated budget deficits imply growing US Treasury issuance. Receding demand from central banks could leave more price-sensitive buyers to pick up the slack. Who are the buyers of US government debt, and how is the market responding? In part two of our series, let’s examine Treasury market supply and demand.

The 19th Century American author Mark Twain once said: “Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry, and narrow-mindedness, and many of our people need it sorely on these accounts. Broad, wholesome, charitable views of men and things cannot be acquired by vegetating in one little corner of the earth all one’s lifetime.”

Midstream’s second quarter earnings calls reinforced the positive outlook for US natural gas demand driven in part by expected power demand from data centers. This note discusses the advantages of natural gas for data centers, additional factors contributing to demand growth, and how midstream is uniquely positioned to benefit from these trends.

Mining stocks can certainly benefit from gold’s run as the precious metal looks to break past the $2,600 per ounce mark. Gold prices are already up about 23% for the year and could keep on rallying with a number of tailwinds behind it.

Improve your income potential with a tactical, unconstrained strategy that sources opportunities across geographies and asset classes. BlackRock Multi-Asset Income Fund takes a risk-first approach while seeking to deliver a consistently attractive yield.

Happy National Cheap Flight Day! Yes, you heard that right—there is a national celebration day to mark the start of a lull in travel demand. Who knew this would be a day to celebrate? Regardless, it’s good news for consumers as airfares should continue their recent downward trend!

We all knew it was coming…and in Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said it will come next month. He said, “the time has come,” and the futures markets have priced in either a 25 or 50 basis point rate cut at the meeting on September 18.

Artificial intelligence has the potential to reshape our economies, labor markets, societies, and politics. But despite the rosy forecasts of an AI-driven boom, history shows that technological advances rarely lead to immediate improvements in living standards and often lead to profound disruption.

Powell’s remarks in Jackson Hole were more dovish than I anticipated. Powell did not hedge; the clear direction of policy was lowering rates. The focus of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed's) narrative was shifting away from inflation risk to employment.

In his annual Jackson Hole speech, Fed Chair Powell assessed the post-pandemic U.S. economy and suggested rate cuts are coming soon.

That anthem was characteristic of the era. After two decades of economic frustration, free market policies had prompted a surge of growth and a bull market for stocks. The captains of industry were corporate raiders, who purchased companies, slashed expenses, pushed up prices and reaped outsized rewards.

As a businessman and ex-business owner, the idea of firms ‘hoarding’ workers never made sense. As an economist, the idea of firms hoarding workers never made sense either.

The market’s 8.5% decline during August sent shockwaves through the media and investors. The drop raised concerns about whether this was the start of a larger correction or a temporary pullback. However, a powerful reversal, driven by investor buying and corporate share repurchases, halted the decline, leading many to wonder if the worst is behind us.

This week we take a not-so-random walk through the data, trying to simplify what is actually a fairly complex subject. I think it is quite fun, but also important. Let's dive in.

This week, before she accepted the Democratic Party’s nomination for president, Vice President Kamala Harris threw her support behind President Joe Biden’s tax proposals for 2025, which include a steep 44.6% capital gains rate and an unprecedented 25% tax on unrealized gains.

Economic indicators are released every week to provide insight into a country’s overall economic health. They serve as essential tools for policymakers, advisors, investors, and businesses because they allow them to make informed decisions regarding business strategies and financial markets.

Our outlook on the 11 S&P 500 equity sectors.

Build a dividend growth portfolio. The stock market as measured by the S&P is currently at an all-time high which makes it very challenging to try to build a quality dividend growth portfolio.

Over nearly three decades, I’ve been dedicated to the sport of running. For the last five years, I chased the elusive goal of qualifying for the Boston Marathon, my ultimate aspiration. It wasn’t until I sought the expertise of a professional coach that I finally achieved this dream.

Deep value stocks are currently our highest conviction long-only investment idea. For the avoidance of any doubt, when we talk about “deep value,” we simply mean stocks that are cheap, often screamingly so, relative to our appraisal of their fair value. We do not care about a “growth” or “value” label that has been assigned, sometimes seemingly arbitrarily, by one index provider or another.

Although we think it's too early to declare the economy is in a recession, risk is elevated. For investors who are concerned about a recession, municipal bonds may help buffer a portfolio.

Recent economic data points have been mixed. On the more positive side of the ledger, there’s evidence that inflation is cooling and consumer spending remains sturdy. Conversely, the jobs market is cooling.

Are we going to have a recession? Are we already in a recession?

With recent cooling in economic growth, an uptick in unemployment, inflation moderating back to the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) 2% target, and expectations for rate cuts, we believe the winds are shifting in the U.S. fixed income market.

After market expectations spiked to nearly five interest rate cuts in 2024 based on disappointing labor market report early in the month, reassuring data in the form of Retail Sales and Unemployment Claims have quelled market Markets have eased expectations for interest rate cuts, pricing closer to four cuts as of the end of last week.

Before the pandemic hit in 2020, a decade-long bull run in the stock market saw the 60/40 portfolio slowly fall out of favor. With market volatility returning, that 60/40 split appears to be making a comeback.

If interest rates decrease over the next 12 months, as the market expects, long duration bonds could potentially provide equity-like returns for investors.

Robust U.S. stock momentum hit a slowdown in the third quarter, even as strong company earnings results rolled in. Fundamental Equities’ U.S. and Developed Markets CIO Carrie King weighs in on the incongruence with three reflections from Q2 earnings season.

It’s widely expected that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates next month, perhaps by as much as 50 basis points. That would potentially provide a much needed positive jolt to bonds and fixed income ETFs.

Since our last update of the Three Tactical Rules on June 25, 2024, equity markets have retraced most of the rally from the spring. The change in market sentiment came abruptly, due to the labor market showing signs of weakness as the number of jobs available per unemployed worker fell to 1.2 and the unemployment rate rose to 4.3%. The recent market volatility has had a dramatic impact on our tactical rules.

Amid expectations of rate cuts from major central banks, managers are increasing their exposure to more cyclical and value-oriented names, including autos, transportation, and short-cycle industrials.

The last two years of high school can be particularly important as students approach the final college decision. Our Bill Cass highlights some action items for students and parents.

With its current course leading only to economic stagnation, the EU must establish a vision for a more dynamic, productive future. Above all, Europeans must answer a simple but critical question: What should the EU look like – in terms of innovation, the economy, security, and resilience – in a decade?

Since the end of the financial crisis, economists, analysts, and the Federal Reserve have continued to predict a return to higher levels of economic growth. The hope remains that the Trillions of dollars spent during the pandemic-driven economic shutdown will turn into lasting organic economic growth.

Active management can lead to high portfolio turnover and a higher tax bill. Wealth managers might feel that an active strategy could be too inefficient for clients who are sensitive to taxes. Find out how implementing a core-satellite portfolio with a direct indexing core may improve tax efficiency.

Economic indicators provide insight into the overall health and performance of an economy. They are essential tools for policymakers, advisors, investors, and businesses because they allow them to make informed decisions regarding business strategies and financial markets. In the week ending on August 15th, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) rose 0.14% while the Invesco S&P 500® Equal Weight ETF (RSP) was up 2.45%.

The US Treasury’s debt-issuance polices have become a powerful form of policy easing. By shortening its issuance profile to reduce long-term interest rates, the Treasury has delivered economic stimulus equivalent to a one-point cut to the Fed’s policy rate, impeding the central bank’s efforts to control inflation.

We explore how strong fundamentals and a resilient economy may position high-yield bonds as a potentially compelling choice in today’s fluctuating market.

It's been 38 years since I began my career on Wall Street and the lessons I learned along the way from some all-time investment greats always hold true.

As the AI halo begins to fade, equity investors are seeking companies that can profit from—and not just pontificate about—artificial intelligence.