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Thursday's GDP Report May Hold Big Surprises
The next few days should be an interesting time in the markets. The Fed Open Market Committee (FOMC) is meeting today and tomorrow and will release its latest policy statement at the conclusion of the meeting. While it is not expected that the Committee will vote to raise the Fed Funds rate at tomorrow’s meeting, Fed Chair Janet Yellen has been talking hawkishly about a rate hike of late.
Why High Performing Individuals Fall Apart in a Team
I have hired the best individual contributors anyone could find. Individually, they are strong performers, but they trip over one another whenever they have to agree on ways to meet client needs. Are there incentives or punishments I can dole out to change this dynamic?
Asia Insight: Online to Offline—The Great Technology Migration
by Michael Oh of Matthews Asia,
Asia has demonstrated an uncanny ability to leapfrog certain technological developments, making much quicker transitions to new technologies than Western countries: jumping from fixed line to wireless communications and moving away from desktop devices to mobile devices. Now, the latest interesting instance of technology leapfrogging that is happening in Asia is dubbed “Online-to-Offline,” commerce, or O2—an e-commerce model that combines offline opportunities with online platforms. Asia Insight explores.
Mid-Year Market Outlook - July 2015
by Team of Thomas White International,
At the end of 2014, “why international?” was the prevailing investor sentiment. After all, foreign stocks had lagged U.S. equities yet again, underperforming four out of the five years between 2010 and 2014. The consensus outlook was that U.S. markets would outperform their foreign peers in any case, and so, would it really serve any purpose to hold international equities in a portfolio? Many investors followed the crowd.
Summer Quarterly Commentary
Greece is much in the headlines again. As we stated in our Spring 2013 letter, “The European debt crisis will not be over until either: 1) the debt goes away (read: default or substantial inflation) or 2) these governments start producing actual surpluses with which to pay the debt down.” So far, every subsequent deal has failed to produce either of these two scenarios, and so each time news media builds up another weekend summit or referendum, the running joke around here is, “Don’t worry, it will all be resolved this weekend.”
Tocqueville Gold Strategy Investor Letter: Q2 2015
What is required to restore investor interest in gold? In our opinion, a prolonged bout of financial-market adversity would suffice. After all, the cornerstone of coordinated central-bank policy since 2008 has been the levitation of financial assets via Zero Interest-Rate Policy (ZIRP) and Quantitative Easing (QE) by forcing investors into risky assets. We believe that nothing would serve better to undermine confidence in central bankers than a bear market in bonds and equities. The roof above the dollar gold price has been built brick by brick from confidence in central bankers.
Bottom Pick These Commodity ETFs At Your Own Risk
by Eric Bush of GaveKal Capital,
Last week Bryce highlighted that commodities continue to get decimated and this post prompted a question: should the contrarian investors out there start taking a closer look at commodities? The short answer is investors are much better off keeping their capital in the equity market rather than trying to scoop up a few commodity ETFs.
The Opportunity in Municipal Closed-End Funds The Value in the 9th Inning of the Great Bond Rally
by Michael Lebowitz,
For the last five years, bond market experts have unfailingly and wrongly predicted a rise in interest rates. If the current rate-hike fears prove unfounded again, municipal-backed closed-end funds (M-CEFs) is an asset subclass likely to perform well. Here are eight such funds to consider.
Secular Outlook: Implications for Asia-Pacific Investors?
by Eric Mogelof, Alan Isenberg of PIMCO,
We hope you have had the opportunity to review the summary from our secular forum in May: “The New Neutral Revisited,” written by PIMCO’s Group CIO Dan Ivascyn, Global Fixed Income CIO Andrew Balls an?d Global Strategic Advisor Rich Clarida. In this analysis, the authors identify the six key themes that emerged from our discussion, as well as six risks.
Crude Oil Is the Best-Performing Commodity of 2015 So Far
The widest expansion this year was made by none other than crude oil, the worst-performing commodity of 2014. As of June 30, oil posted gains of over 11 percent, rising to $59.47 per barrel. After falling more than 50 percent since last summer, though, it had little else to go but up. That oil claimed the top spot just highlights the reality that commodities are in a depressed state right now.
Northern Trust Perspective
by Jim McDonald of Northern Trust,
Last month we said that the odds favored some sort of “kick the can down the road” agreement between Greece and its creditors, and it looks like that may be coming to pass. While there’s still much work to be done, the tone of the current agreement seems focused on avoiding a euro exit and debt write-downs, while ignoring growth-oriented policies. With the hard decisions yet again put off for another day, this should be euro-weakening, all else equal.
Productivity and Modern-Day Horse Manure
by John Mauldin of Mauldin Economics,
What exactly do we mean by this “productivity” word? I’ve given this a good deal of thought lately, and I plan to explore it in my newsletters over the next few months. As you will see, productivity growth has both a positive side and a very negative side.
ProVise Bullets
by Team of ProVise Management Group,
In just a few short days, the comment period will close on a controversial proposal proffered by the Department of Labor (DOL) which would require virtually all financial advisors to adhere to a fiduciary standard of care when giving clients or prospective clients advice on their retirement plans, including IRAs. Ironically, most Americans believe that the advice that their financial advisor provides is already held to this high standard.
How Likely is Hyperinflation in the U.S? Part Two
by Seaborn Hall,
My previous article covered hyperinflation's history, process, effects, definition, types and causes. Part Two answers the questions of how to gauge the likelihood of hyperinflation in the U.S., what the emerging dangers are, how it might happen here and how to prepare if it does.
Olympic Training Techniques that Win Clients
by Dan Richards,
Over the past 50 years, advances in training techniques have transformed what it takes for high level athletes to compete. But the application of some of these breakthroughs isn’t just limited to sports. Here’s how a former college athlete who works as a financial advisor used mental training techniques to grow her network and prospect effectively.
Greece and the King of Asteroid 325 (and The One Lesson to Learn Before a Market Crash)
by John Hussman of Hussman Funds,
Last week, the price of Greek government debt soared on hopes of an 11th hour stick-save bailout by the European Union. Unfortunately, that price jump still left Greek bonds priced to reflect a default probability of 100% at every maturity. The jump only reflected an increase in the amount that bondholders evidently expect to recover in default, raising the implied recovery rate from the recent low near 30% to something closer to 50%. Put another way, the bond market has fully priced in the likelihood of a default coupled with a major haircut on Greek debt.
US Equity and Economic Review For the Week of July 6-10: The Fed Speaks, Edition
by Hale Stewart,
Aside from two Federal Reserve releases, the only major news announcement was the ISM services index, which printed a very strong 56% headline number. New orders were a bullish 58.3 while employment was 52.7.
It’s Not Over Till the Fat Lady Goes on a P/E Diet
by John Mauldin of Mauldin Economics,
The answer to the seemingly arcane question of whether we are in a secular bull or bear market makes a great difference in the proper positioning of your portfolios. And getting it wrong can have serious consequences.
The Fed After the "No"
by John Canally of LPL Financial,
The “no” vote in the Greek referendum on July 5, 2015, will potentially raise the level of economic and financial market volatility in the coming weeks as global investors assess the market and economic risks associated with an increasingly likely Greek exit (Grexit) from the Eurozone and from the Eurozone’s common currency, the euro.
China’s Stock Markets Imploded In June - Why?
While the mainstream media has been obsessed with Greece over the last month or so, there has been scant attention paid to the fact that China’s high-flying stock markets unexpectedly have plummeted in June and were down around 30% through the end of last week.
A First-Half Letter to Clients: Robert Shiller on the Valuation Quandary
by Dan Richards,
Since 2008, I have posted a template for a client letter each quarter as a starting point for advisors who want to send clients an overview of the period that just ended and some thoughts looking forward. This quarter’s letter addresses one of today’s most taxing questions for advisors and investors alike: How to deal with the quandary presented by today’s valuation levels on U.S. stocks.
Exporting the “Bacon Genie” and Other Reasons to Be Bullish
From “Bacon Genies” to “Snuggies,” there’s little doubting Americans have a thirst for consumer goods, even those that don’t always appear to serve much practical purpose. Brooks Ritchey, Senior Managing Director at K2 Advisors®, Franklin Templeton Solutions®, explores how an evolving consumer culture is spreading throughout the globe, and how he and his team are positioning their portfolios with these types of macro considerations in mind.
The Best Way to Judge Past Performance: Part Two
by Chuck Carnevale of F.A.S.T. Graphs,
On virtually every financial website on the planet there is a never-ending daily stream of stock tips and recommendations. Consequently, the investing public is literally flooded with information and advice regarding what stock to buy today or not to buy. Some of what is offered is supported by factual information and logic, but unfortunately, much of what is offered is merely based on the opinion of the author. This presents quite a challenge to the prudent prospective investor seeking sound advice or guidance.
Home of the Free, Land of the Entrepreneur
Where else but in America can a startup such as Uber be valued at $50 billion, higher than 80 percent of the companies in the S&P 500 Index, only six years after its founding? Where else but in America can someone reach billionaire status by inventing a new type of hosiery, as Sara Blakely did with Spanx? Before her now-ubiquitous undergarments were worn by women—and now men—all over the globe, Blakely was so broke that she had to write her own patent without the help of an attorney.
Greek Default is Everyone’s Fault
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust,
We do not expect widespread global contagion, but reducing the risk of this outcome will require renewed cooperation between Greece and its creditors. They created the problem together, and neither side can claim the high ground. It is about time that they came back down to earth and worked this thing out.
The Smartest Man is Wild about Innovation
by Byron Wien of Blackstone,
For the past fifteen years I have written annually about a person I have come to call “The Smartest Man in Europe.” For new readers, he is a finance person in his 80’s who has built his reputation by identifying important trend changes early and putting serious money behind his conclusions. Descended from a mercantile family that operated canteens selling food and weather protection along the Silk Route, he was educated in Europe, trained in New York and returned home to take advantage of the wealth-creating opportunities resulting from the post-war recovery.
Greece: Weighing the Risks
by Milton Ezrati of Lord Abbett,
It seems Greece has chosen default and capital controls. Even so, Athens can still cut a deal that would relieve both. Either way, it will remain unclear for a while whether the country stays in the common currency. In some respects, this situation is entirely manageable. That fact has fostered a dangerous complacency, for in other respects, this situation carries considerable risk—for the eurozone, for European finance in general, and for global finance.
$8 Trillion Alternative Energy Boom Is a Win for Copper
As the world’s population continues to grow, and as more people in developing and emerging countries gain access to electricity, the role alternative energy sources such as wind, solar and geothermal play should skyrocket. Between now and 2040, a massive $8 trillion will be spent globally on renewables, about two thirds of all energy spending, according to Bloomberg New Energy Finance. Solar power alone is expected to draw $3.7 trillion.
Shoot the Dog and Sell the Farm
by John Mauldin of Mauldin Economics,
The Greek situation is presently caught in those two bubbles on the bottom. European leaders held summit meetings this week to consider new breakthrough concessions offered by Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras. Let the champagne flow. Except those concessions were rejected, and the Greeks rejected the counteroffer as of this afternoon. But it’s not quite midnight yet.
“Ye Of Little Faith” What Has It Cost You? Part 1
by Chuck Carnevale of F.A.S.T. Graphs,
I believe that one of the most important attributes that a successful investor must possess is optimism. Any serious student of financial history would recognize and acknowledge that economically speaking, things are good much more often than they are bad.
Putting the Pieces Together: Midyear Economic Outlook
by John Canally Jr. of LPL Financial,
We continue to expect that the U.S. economy will expand at a rate of 3% or slightly higher over the remainder of 2015, once economic conditions recover from yet another harsh winter—and other transitory factors—that held back growth in the early part of 2015. This forecast matches the average growth rate over the past 50 years, and is based on contributions from consumer spending, business capital spending, and housing, which are poised to advance at historically average or better growth rates in 2015. Net exports and the government sector should trail be hind.
Handicapping Bubbles and Shocks
Kristina Hooper, US Investment Strategist for Allianz Global Investors, explains the results of the 2015 Allianz Global Investors RiskMonitor Survey, a global study of prevailing views on portfolio construction, asset allocation and risk among a cross-section of institutional investors.
Gold and Health Care Stocks Get a Clean Bill of Health
Even though the Federal Reserve announced this week that it would wait a little longer to raise rates, spooked investors fled to gold bullion, helping to drive prices above $1,200 an ounce. It was the greatest single-session surge by percentage in nearly a month and a half for the yellow metal, widely seen as a safe-haven investment. As I told MarketWatch yesterday, $1,200 is an important threshold for gold miners because it helps increase profitability and spur production.
The "Uncle Drew" Stock Market
Headline stock indexes (S&P 500, Dow, Nasdaq) continue to trade near all-time highs, and sport gaudy 5-year returns. These indexes have averaged more than 15% a year each since this time in 2010. The problem is, some investors think this is a reflection of the entire investment universe. Far from it.
Rate Hikes: Investor Risk Perceptions and Historical Context
During a recent quarterly webcast for financial advisors, we asked the audience about their clients’ biggest concerns for the remainder of 2015. The four options were: - Losing money on their equity allocations; - Not earning enough income; - Not keeping up with the stock market; - Losing money on their fixed income allocations. Of these, “losing money on their equity allocations” was by far the most popular response, at just under 40%. In our view, bond market risks are greater than many people realize.
The People’s Republic of Debt
by John Mauldin of Mauldin Economics,
Among the most important questions for all investors and businessmen is, how will China manage its future and the problems it faces? There are many problems, some of them monumental – and at the same time there is an amazing amount of opportunity and potential. Understanding the challenges and deciphering the likely outcomes is itself an immense challenge.
Can We Recover from the Public Debt Crisis? Of Course We Can
by Laurence Siegel,
Is the world facing a public-debt crisis, or is too much debt just another headache we will muddle through? How can investors distinguish between countries that are likely to default or otherwise injure debtholders, such as through high inflation, and those that will resolve their debt problems and emerge stronger? How can countries deal with high and rising levels of debt and return their finances to a sound footing?
The Importance of FIFA
Swiss authorities recently arrested several top officials affiliated with FIFA on various charges, mostly related to corruption. The ongoing investigation continues to unfold, so we will not spend much time on arrests or new charges. Instead, we offer a short overview of the arrests and the election and resignation of FIFA President Blatter, discussing FIFA’s structure and how the organization is prone to corruption. We follow this discussion with the most important part of the report, the extension of U.S. law enforcement into the international realm as a function of the superpower role.
America Is Woefully Unprepared for Retirement
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust,
Solutions are elusive. We cannot turn back the clock and increase our saving rates or invest with the benefit of hindsight. But from here forward, we need to take a hard look at the structure of public and private retirement systems and reinforce financial literacy among beneficiaries.
Why Oil Price Rally Isn’t a Surprise, but Iron Ore’s Price Should Stay Low
While oil has dealt with a relatively recent increase in supply, iron ore has been suffering through a long-term glut. And, based on our analysis of future supply/demand trends, we expect the abundance of iron ore to continue—and possibly increase.
Results 3,401–3,450
of 4,353 found.
