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Gold and Health Care Stocks Get a Clean Bill of Health
Even though the Federal Reserve announced this week that it would wait a little longer to raise rates, spooked investors fled to gold bullion, helping to drive prices above $1,200 an ounce. It was the greatest single-session surge by percentage in nearly a month and a half for the yellow metal, widely seen as a safe-haven investment. As I told MarketWatch yesterday, $1,200 is an important threshold for gold miners because it helps increase profitability and spur production.
The "Uncle Drew" Stock Market
Headline stock indexes (S&P 500, Dow, Nasdaq) continue to trade near all-time highs, and sport gaudy 5-year returns. These indexes have averaged more than 15% a year each since this time in 2010. The problem is, some investors think this is a reflection of the entire investment universe. Far from it.
Rate Hikes: Investor Risk Perceptions and Historical Context
During a recent quarterly webcast for financial advisors, we asked the audience about their clients’ biggest concerns for the remainder of 2015. The four options were: - Losing money on their equity allocations; - Not earning enough income; - Not keeping up with the stock market; - Losing money on their fixed income allocations. Of these, “losing money on their equity allocations” was by far the most popular response, at just under 40%. In our view, bond market risks are greater than many people realize.
The People’s Republic of Debt
by John Mauldin of Mauldin Economics,
Among the most important questions for all investors and businessmen is, how will China manage its future and the problems it faces? There are many problems, some of them monumental – and at the same time there is an amazing amount of opportunity and potential. Understanding the challenges and deciphering the likely outcomes is itself an immense challenge.
Can We Recover from the Public Debt Crisis? Of Course We Can
by Laurence Siegel,
Is the world facing a public-debt crisis, or is too much debt just another headache we will muddle through? How can investors distinguish between countries that are likely to default or otherwise injure debtholders, such as through high inflation, and those that will resolve their debt problems and emerge stronger? How can countries deal with high and rising levels of debt and return their finances to a sound footing?
The Importance of FIFA
Swiss authorities recently arrested several top officials affiliated with FIFA on various charges, mostly related to corruption. The ongoing investigation continues to unfold, so we will not spend much time on arrests or new charges. Instead, we offer a short overview of the arrests and the election and resignation of FIFA President Blatter, discussing FIFA’s structure and how the organization is prone to corruption. We follow this discussion with the most important part of the report, the extension of U.S. law enforcement into the international realm as a function of the superpower role.
America Is Woefully Unprepared for Retirement
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust,
Solutions are elusive. We cannot turn back the clock and increase our saving rates or invest with the benefit of hindsight. But from here forward, we need to take a hard look at the structure of public and private retirement systems and reinforce financial literacy among beneficiaries.
Why Oil Price Rally Isn’t a Surprise, but Iron Ore’s Price Should Stay Low
While oil has dealt with a relatively recent increase in supply, iron ore has been suffering through a long-term glut. And, based on our analysis of future supply/demand trends, we expect the abundance of iron ore to continue—and possibly increase.
On My Radar: Inflation and The Big (Bigger) Short
"Negative-yield bonds now account for some €1.5 trillion of debt issued by governments in the euro area, equivalent to almost 30% of the total outstanding. Many expect even more of the global bond market to fall into negative yield territory. Half of all government bonds in the world today yield less than 1%.”– John Mauldin
China Surpasses America As World's Largest Economy
For the first time in history, the People’s Republic of China’s Gross Domestic Product exceeded the GDP of America, as measured by purchasing power, in 2014. According to the International Monetary Fund, China’s purchasing power GDP hit $17.6 trillion last year versus $17.4 trillion in the US.
What America Can Learn from China’s Infrastructure
As one of the greatest nations on the planet, the United States excels in a number of areas, innovation and entrepreneurship foremost among them. But something you might be hard-pressed to find at the top of anyone’s best-of list is infrastructure—specifically roads, rail and mass transit.
Do Goldman Sachs' Funds Add Value for Investors?
by Larry Swedroe,
Over the last few years, an expanding line of mutual funds created by commercial banks such as Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase have been drawing billions of dollars from investors looking to earn a good return. While the fees these funds have generated are among the few consistent bright spots of growth on Wall Street, the question for investors is whether or not the active mutual funds managed by these banks actually have been good investment choices.
Align the Design: Considering and Evaluating Target-Date Glide Paths
by Stacy Schaus and Ying Gao of PIMCO,
Few responsibilities are as important to defined contribution (DC) plan sponsors as selecting a default glide path that best maximizes a participant’s odds of retiring on time and with sufficient lifetime income. The goal, put simply, is to maximize asset returns while minimizing volatility relative to the retirement liability – precisely what Objective-Aligned Glide Paths aim to achieve.
Q1 Letter
by Team of Grey Owl Capital Management,
Grey Owl’s strategies all performed well in the first quarter. The good performance came despite US GDP growth of just 0.2%, continually lowered earnings expectations, and volatile equity and bond markets. Below we discuss the current environment including the now absolute fixation by investors on every Fed comment, our continued focus on an all-weather approach, and our best and worst performing securities during the quarter.
What's next for Gold?
by Axel Merk of Merk Investments,
Will gold zoom higher with Greece on the brink of default? Or will it crash as the Fed pursues an “exit?” Why has gold not rallied with the recent retreat of the dollar? To understand where gold may be heading, keep in mind that this shiny metal isn’t changing; it’s the world around it that is. We contemplate why investors may want to hold gold as part of their portfolio.
Be Vigilant - not Paranoid - about CyberSecurity
Sony, JP Morgan Chase, Target, Home Depot attacked. Russian, Chinese, North Korean, stateless hackers blamed. Stories about identity theft, e-mail hacks, and elder abuse blanket the news. No wonder many of our clients fear it's just a matter of time before the cyber criminals attack them personally. Fortunately, with a reasonable amount of vigilance, you can avoid becoming a victim.
Buying Time: Why We Think M&A Is Here to Stay
In an environment of still-moderate global economic growth that may not promise great rewards for new investment or capital expenditure, the market appears more prepared to accept that well-thought-out M&A, financed by lower-cost capital and low interest rates, could be quickly accretive.
Crystal Balls, Likely Outcomes and Portfolio Planning
by Robert Holton of Cleary Gull,
In presentations to fellow professionals, we often make self-deprecating comments similar to this – “And then later we’ll tell you exactly when the Fed will raise interest rates. We’ll just grab our crystal ball and take a look.” That simple joke, variations of which are repeated over and over among financial professionals, draws on fairly deep-seated anxiety about the predictability of financial markets.
Improving Client Communication Skills
Clients describe a void to me; they will call to ask questions about an issue and might wait days to hear back. I know that my staff is working on finding an answer, and that's why they don't respond. But the clients don't know this, and it makes for a poor client experience. Any tips on improving the response time and communication?
Who Is Afraid of the Inflation Ogre?
When many commentators and investors show a high conviction about something, it is perhaps a good time to explore how things could move in the opposite direction. After several trillions of quantitative easing (QE) from the major global central banks, and with trillions of QE likely ahead, the consensus appears spooked by the specter of global disinflation and deflation. The possibility of a higher inflation scenario seems to have fallen completely off the radar.
Pondering Halftime Adjustments
At the beginning of the year, we wrote about an aging bull market that we thought could be ridden, but with the caveat that one wouldn’t want to take too much risk given the magnitude of the move, current valuation levels in the U.S., and an overall evidence profile that was clearly mixed with pockets of both strength and weakness. When weighing the evidence, our dashboards offered no reason to reach for additional risk this late in the cycle, but instead we tried to focus on some big picture themes that could help us find attractive opportunities to position for.
Finding Growth Amid Emerging-Market Slowdowns
Emerging markets have faced a significant economic slowdown in recent years. But there are still many industries and companies that are continuing to grow. We believe these are the places that investors should focus on to capture attractive return potential in developing-world equities.
Five Words that Shape Client Behavior
by Dan Richards,
Financial advisors know the difficulty of getting clients to do the right things. Clients often fail to diversify portfolios, rebalance out-of-whack allocations or discuss inheritance plans with adult children. These behaviors undermine long-term outcomes. But five words can put the right default behavior in place.
Significant Slip—or Just a Blip—in Emerging Markets’ Foreign Exchange Reserves?
For those looking to invest in emerging markets, a steady growth in foreign exchange reserves—in many cases to higher levels than in most developed markets—has been a positive talking point for the past two decades. This reserve build-up has allowed emerging markets to be dominant buyers of US and European debt. However, a general decline in emerging market foreign reserves last year now has pundits pondering whether there is danger of more significant slippage with potentially ominous market implications.
Weighing the Week Ahead: Time for an Upside Breakout?
We have the makings of a volatility cocktail! It is a huge week for economic data. It is the heart of earnings season, with Apple’s report leading off the week. The Fed has a two-day meeting culminating with a policy announcement. Global economic threats continue. Which of these will be the theme?
BofA Is Confusing Liquidity Fueled And Secular Bull Markets
by Lance Roberts of Streettalk Live,
Over the past couple of years, there has been a growing chorus of individuals claiming that the financial markets have finally shaken the shackles of the secular bear market that began at the turn of the century. This, of course, suggests that the markets have now begun the next long-term secular bull market.
Schwab Market Perspective: Heads, Bulls Win; Tails, Bears Lose?
The bears can’t seem to grab hold of this market, but that doesn’t mean full-speed ahead for the bulls either. Grinding generally higher with increased volatility seems to be the course for now, but the possibility of a correction still exists. Diversification, discipline and patience is required. International equity exposure should be part of most investors’ portfolios, to a level commiserate with risk tolerance. European risks related to Greece seem to have lessened, while the Chinese stock market doesn’t appear grossly overvalued, although a pullback from the recent run is possi
Global Divergence, the Federal Reserve and the Impact on U.S. Insurers
by David Braun, Scott Millimet of PIMCO,
Insurance publication SNL Financial recently sat down with members of PIMCO’s Financial Institutions Group to discuss PIMCO’s latest views on global divergence, the Federal Reserve and the impact on U.S. insurers in their investment portfolio positioning.
On My Radar: The Speech at Lost Tree Club
You and I are in a tough business. It is based on probabilities and involves imperfection. The mismatch between customer expectations and practical reality is challenging. Art Cashin said, That to survive 50 years in this business, you learn that the first thing you do when you enter a room is look for the exit sign. It is with this thinking that I also share a great piece on investing and risk from Ned Davis.
Thoughts from the Frontline: Half a Bubble Off Dead Center
by John Mauldin of Mauldin Economics,
Central banks, in their valiant, unceasing efforts to restore liquidity and growth, have unleashed numerous unintended consequences that are beginning to show up in earnest. Today we are going to review the well-meaning behavior of central banks for clues about our near future.
Gauging Global Growth: An Update For 2015 & 2016
by John Canally of LPL Financial,
Global growth is likely to be a recurring theme for investors this week. The health of the global economy and key regions (U.S., Eurozone, Japan, China, etc.) is likely to get plenty of attention from corporate managements as they discuss Q1 2015 results and provide guidance for the rest of the year. In addition, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) will release the spring 2015 edition of its widely read World Economic Outlook on Tuesday, April 14, 2015, and China will release its Q1 2015 gross domestic product (GDP) that same day.
Ukraine: Mass Corporate Debt Restructuring Looks Likely
Ukraine's biggest economic problem is its deep recession. We expect gross domestic product to contract by about 7% this year, as the conflict with Russia has devastated Ukraine's vital industrial corridor in the east, interest rates and inflation are soaring, and its currency teeters on collapse.
The Case for Not Currency Hedging Foreign Equity Investments: A U.S. Investor’s Perspective
by Catherine LeGraw of GMO,
In a new white paper, Catherine LeGraw of GMO's asset allocation team explains GMO's approach to currency hedging, a topic which has gained relevance as the U.S. dollar has strengthened.
Results 3,401–3,450
of 4,316 found.
