High-yield bonds remain attractive, but keep an eye on recovery rates
In good news for high-yield bonds, recovery rates on defaults are also improving from the concerningly low levels of recent months, as energy-sector defaults have worked through the system. However, recovery rates are still well below their historical level, which indicates weak bond covenants.
High Yield Bond Investors Look Down from the Tightrope: Q3 2020 Portfolio Managers’ Quarterly
The tightrope walker has his blindfold off, the wind is blowing, and it’s a long way down. Technically speaking, high-yield bond prices broke downward through a “double bottom,” which could reasonably be taken as an indicator of coming trouble for the stock market as well, given the greater wariness among bond market investors this year.
From Straight Up to Sideways to "Time to Play Defense" - Q2 2020 Portfolio Managers' Quarterly
Zero yields could remove much or all of the "hedging value" of Treasuries in traditional bond allocations. Yet another concern for "traditional" bond allocations is less diversification potential (given compressed yields) going into a potential flight to quality. We believe a tactical approach—with a firm willingness to shift to defense...
Why We Shifted to Defense in Late February – Q1 2020 Portfolio Managers’ Quarterly
In late February, our Bond Asset Allocation/Tactical Fixed Income model prompted us to sell out of high yield bonds and instead take up a defensive position. It isn’t enough to simply analyze creditworthiness of issuers or movements in credit spreads. Anyone who thought they were taking a “tactical” approach without a broader analysis was likely sorely disappointed as the latter half of the quarter unfolded.
Clearer Intermediate-Term Trend Signals About High Yield Bond Market
Since the high yield bond market lows in mid-November, prices recovered and have now moved somewhat above the late-October highs. This process has been slow—and we remained suspect that an intermediate-term trend had not been established.
Understanding the High Yield Bond Market as Inflation Begins to Take Hold
Inflation may be starting to develop in the U.S., which has significant implications for the High Yield bond market. As inflation takes hold, the Fed’s normal response is to raise policy interest rates to prevent inflation from spiking higher. So what does a period of rising rates mean for High Yield bonds?