As I listened to a number of the presentations at last month’s Strategic Investment Conference, silver and gold kept coming up. As did the industrial metal, copper. Make new friends but keep the old… today’s On My Radar continues the sharing of my high level conference notes with you. I walked away with some actionable ideas. Gold and silver were high on the list. The new friend is copper.
Today, you’ll find my high level notes from Mark Yusko’s presentation at the Mauldin Economics 2017 Strategic Investment Conference.
The initial conditions or the starting point conditions, mean to me that a small degree of monetary restraint has a very quick and strong impact on economic activity.
Over the next two to three weeks, I’m going to share with you my high level notes of the 2017 Strategic Investment Conference and some investment ideas (e.g., India looks great). There was bullish discussion on China and emerging markets, but the developed markets are a different story. The Fed and central bankers must remain on our radars.
This is one of the more important pieces I’m sharing with you. It’s a candid look at where we are in the economic cycle and what that likely means for the global markets.
When Ronald Reagan entered office in 1981, forward return expectations were a high 18.91% (see chart below: green line, left-hand side). Equally important was that risk of loss was a low -4.29% (red line, left-hand side). The prior bear market reached its end, yet few knew it. Scream as one might, clients weren’t buying.
I presented at a recent advisor conference alongside a famous economist. He told a story about an investment manager who told him, “You know… it is easy to pick out the investment amateur in any room.” He said, “He’s the person who says, ‘it’s different this time’.”
Beset with low rates, slow growth and a new US president who wants a significant shift in policy, Steve Malin, investment strategist at Allianz Global Investors, says the Federal Reserve faces one of the most uncertain periods in its 104-year history. What could this mean for investors.
I enjoy reading 720 Global’s research blog. Quick, crisp and to the point. The message in their most recent piece is about human behavioral tendencies and ego. Ultimately, it’s about how to weave behavior and ego into our investment thinking.
Many years ago I created an economic investment dashboard of sorts to help me do my best to keep my head screwed on straight. If you subscribe to a handful of research services, you know what I mean. For every 10 bulls, there are 10 bears.