The US Senate approved a tax bill last weekend, and it now appears highly likely that final tax legislation will be passed in the next few weeks. Big changes to the tax rules will impact the economy, taxpayers and financial markets.
The business cycle is one of the most important drivers of investment performance. As the nearby chart shows, recessions lead to outsized moves across asset markets. It is therefore critical for investors to have a well-informed view on the business cycle so portfolio allocations can be adjusted accordingly.
Comprehensive, revenue-neutral tax reform could give the US economy a boost. But tax cuts alone are more likely to lead to higher budget deficits than to increased growth.
Jerome Powell, President Trump’s pick to lead the Federal Reserve, is likely to continue the central bank’s gradual retreat from unconventional policy. But the test for a Powell-led Fed will come when the economic cycle turns.
Unprecedented changes are reshaping the financial advice industry and affecting portfolio construction for individual investors. New regulation, technological innovation, capital market trends and the prospect of lower future returns are all exerting profound effects.
US economic activity is picking up, and as a result, we’ve raised our growth forecasts for 2017 and 2018. What’s behind the good news—and how will it impact interest rates?
The long-anticipated unwinding of quantitative easing (QE) in the US is set to begin, just as the Fed’s leadership faces a wave of turnover. We think a strong foundation should keep steady US economic growth on track.
Speculation is building about a looming shake-up in the leadership of the US Federal Reserve. Transitions are nothing new—but the stakes this time are unusually high for the economy and markets.
The Trump administration is starting to consider a replacement for US Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen after her term expires. This is only one potential leadership change in what could be a wave of turnover ahead for the institution.
Passive investing strategies continue to attract big money. But think carefully before choosing to track a benchmark in emerging markets (EM). Active managers offer several clear benefits for equity investors in the developing world.