Round number crosses for each of the three major U.S. equity averages over the past month helped elevate investor sentiment, but is it now stretched?
Economists are stunned by why economic growth remains at low levels a decade after the last recession. Here's why.
Chinese government economists in Beijing have indicated that, while they are prepared to intervene with stimulus if current conditions deteriorate, investors should not anticipate material changes to monetary and fiscal policy. Sinology takes a look at the latest China economic data.
Although there was some good news last month—job growth bounced back to come in well above expectations—the overall trend remains negative. Confidence has continued to decline, while the yield curve hit an official inversion as of the end of June.
What’s wrong with oil? Lately, that’s a question we’ve been frequently asked, especially from those who have noticed the favorable, supply side-related geopolitical factors around the world.
Trade tensions continue to plague confidence about the trajectory of economic growth. Trade tension-induced cost pressures, disrupted supply chains, capital tied up in excess inventories, and the uncertainty which impedes business investment plans continue to be headwinds.
This is the third in a series of posts focusing on the formula of advisor value. Here we discuss the cost of basic investment-only management—which is not only worthwhile, but necessary. Yet it should also be a warning sign if your value proposition is based solely on your investment management prowess.
The S&P 500 is up 27% from its Christmas Eve low, and 19.3% this calendar year through the close on Friday – not including dividends. Last December, our forecast for 2019 was 3,100. We're just 3.7% away.
In this post we’ll highlight how this payroll report could either beat or miss expectations and what each case could mean for bonds, stocks, the USD and gold.
What two numbers does Ken Fisher live by that the average advisor ignores?
I’m very pleased to say that a satisfactory agreement was reached between HIVE and its strategic partner, Genesis Mining, so that the company can once again return to creating value for its shareholders.
All right, one more time. Tariffs raise costs for U.S. consumers and business, disrupt supply chains, invite retaliation, and undermine business fixed investment.
What’s the long-term outlook for oil in a world shifting to renewable energy? Oil majors publicly say supply-and-demand dynamics will support the market. But their investment choices suggest that they’re preparing for a much weaker oil price in the distant future.
Advocates of MMT insist that governments can and should print as much money as needed to fund massive public works, guarantee government jobs for the unemployed and much more. This is a recipe for runaway hyperinflation.
Major secular drivers could disrupt the global economy and financial markets over the next three to five years. We share our views on risks and opportunities ahead.
As we review the general state of the global economy and investment markets, the word that keeps running through our mind is “asymmetrical”. We believe that the underlying fundamentals remain generally positive, but the market increasingly is “priced for perfection” and subject to downside shocks if what’s being priced in turns out differently than expected.
For years, President Trump has accused China of purposely devaluing the renminbi to boost exports. With trade and political tensions boiling over, the question of whether China will devalue the renminbi often comes up.
Of all the distinctions that investors might make in the coming few years, one that I expect will serve investors particularly well is the distinction between how the market responds to monetary policy when investors are inclined toward speculation, versus how the market responds when investors are inclined toward risk-aversion.
With the passing of Reg BI, consumers’ minimum expectations are going to change, so the differentiation factor in your marketing needs to as well.
We’d all like our investments to make a positive contribution to environmental, social and governance (ESG) issues. But, as predicted by economic theory, ESG funds have suffered a performance deficit over a long time horizon.
Over the past decade, U.S. natural gas utility and pipeline companies have significantly increased investment in their infrastructure networks. We believe higher investment is a positive catalyst driving earnings growth for many natural gas distribution companies operating under rate of return (ROR) regulation.
When choosing a factor-based strategy, advisors should carefully scrutinize the fund;s construction rules (e.g., the number of securities held) and implementation strategy (e.g., the frequency of rebalancing and the use of patient, algorithmic trading).
Advisors sometimes want to make their religion a focal point of their website. This issue has a lot of ramifications and led me to do some research, which I’d like to share with you.
For most millennials like myself the last ten years have formed what we believe the business to be: a bull market reinvigorated by the whims of the Federal Reserve Board. If anchoring is a powerful force in investor behavior, the anchor at the depths of our millennial beliefs is that value hasn’t worked.
The economic calendar is normal, highlighting housing data, leading indicators, and the FOMC decision. The pundit conversation remains all about the Fed, but a new angle is getting more attention. The talking heads will not raise the question explicitly – sticking to personal ideas of what the Fed should be doing.
Emerging markets technology has gone from an afterthought to the cutting edge in two decades. Read how they are leading the world in adopting 5G technology.
Before you jump on the low-volatility bandwagon, it’s important you understand that the research demonstrates that the performance of the low-volatility factor is actually well explained by exposure to other factors, and it is also highly regime dependent.
One of the most reliable signals of a pending recession is when, in the jargon, the yield curve inverts. This sounds like a fancy phrase, but it simply means that investors demand to be paid more for a short-term loan than for a long-term one.
The sharp increase in geopolitical risk, potential action by OPEC to boost crude oil prices (through further supply cuts), and our view that concerns surrounding global growth are overdone support our year-end WTI forecast of $70/bbl.
Trade tensions caused investors to back away from emerging markets in May, but there are many reasons to be optimistic about the asset class and the earnings outlook ahead.
Although polls show Joe Biden leading his nearest competitor by more than 15 percentage points, Jeffrey Gundlach says he will not be the Democratic nominee for the 2020 presidential election.
In good times, we often see the notion "this time it's different" work its way into the marketplace as investors seek to rationalize higher asset prices and continued upward movement. Today this sentiment is expressed in contexts ranging from questioning the prospect of a recession altogether to supporting the high valuations of tech companies despite their current profitless state. In his latest memo, Howard Marks discusses the outlook for nine such theories. It would truly have to be different this time around for them to hold.
In his Berkshire Hathaway 1994 annual report Warren Buffett said ignore political and economic forecasts. I considered this one of the more profound pieces of investment advice and wisdom that I ever came across.
The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for U.S. economic growth, inflation, unemployment and interest rates.
Now it is time to go in-depth into how to optimize your content for search engines.
Here’s how you can slay the tax beast and help your clients minimize the impact of taxes.
Thirty years ago, troops descended upon Tiananmen Square to forcibly remove protestors who were agitating for democracy, an end to corruption and a more inclusive political system. Details remain unsettled, but hundreds of students were killed or injured.
Emerging markets (EM) assets had a favorable first quarter likely driven by an improvement in external funding conditions and global central bank moves toward policy accommodation. EM credit outperformed the more volatile EM local debt over the period.
There is little denying the rise of “socialistic” ideas in the U.S. today. You can try and cover the stench by calling it “social democracy” but in the end, it’s still socialism.
While many savvy economists should have seen this coming, as late as October of last year, almost no one in the financial world thought that the Fed would so easily abandon its long-held bias without a gale force recession blowing them off course. But, in reality, all it took was a light breeze to force a 180-degree turnaround.
Perhaps surprising no one, global manufacturers are now in contraction mode for the first time since 2012. That’s according to the most recent reading of the sector’s health, the purchasing manager’s index (PMI), which headed lower for a record 13th straight month in May.
We have learned from experience that educational background, prior experience, and even working toward the CFA designation had very little predictive power as to whether a person would end up as a great investor. There was only one factor that really mattered to me this time…
U.S. - China trade concerns continue to weigh on global markets. Matthews Asia offers its perspective on how the dispute affects the long-term investment landscape.
Nasdaq President & CEO Adena Friedman talks candidly with Envestnet Head of Asset Manager Distribution about the future of financial advising, adding value for clients, work/life balance, and why Nasdaq isn’t just an exchange but a global technology company.
Tariffs are paid by U.S.-based importing companies, which pass the extra expenses on to the end consumer. As such, tariffs are inflationary, and historically, that’s been good for gold
One of the challenges municipal bond investors face when navigating the municipal bond market on their own, is accessing bonds in the new issue market. The advent of retail order periods for some larger issues has improved retail access.
Memorial Day is also the “unofficial” start to summer as the temperature heats up, school ends, and vacation season begins. With more people on vacation there is a tendency for investors to lose focus on the financial markets. However, this particular summer presents numerous events, deadlines, and potential headlines that we believe investors cannot ignore as they could lead to increased volatility, both to the upside and downside.
Harry Markowitz published two papers, one in 1952 and the other in 1991. The latter sought to correct misunderstandings that arose from the former. Together they provide a valuable, yet incomplete, architecture for guiding individual investment decisions.
I don’t want to give up my practice. But I have this gnawing desire to do more with my life.
