The softening trends in both inflation and labor data are sending a message that monetary policy is too restrictive.
During each speculative run-up in asset prices – whether the dot-com bubble, the housing bubble, or more recently the rapid rise (and fall) of the stocks of electric vehicle companies – there’s typically a moment when Wall Street strategists, analysts, and investors go all-in on that theme.
Semiconductor stocks remain the leaders of this market, but investors might admit it looks pretty extended at the moment.
Recent macroeconomic and geopolitical developments, along with shifting AI sentiment, have raised concerns over whether strong headline returns, low volatility, and persistent mega cap tech leadership can continue as we look ahead.
On the latest edition of Market Week in Review, Investment Strategist BeiChen Lin and ESG and Active Ownership Analyst Zoe Warganz discussed key takeaways from recent central bank meetings. They also provided an update on how U.S. small cap companies are performing during second-quarter earnings season.
The relative weakness in July’s nonfarm payroll employment number and the increase in the rate of unemployment from 4.1% in June to 4.3% in July, triggering the Sahm Rule is a reminder of the difficult tasks ahead for the Federal Reserve.
The strong currency is neither a blessing nor a curse.
Never before in my history studying the Federal Reserve (Fed) has the Fed’s policy come into question immediately following the Fed decision.
As Milton Friedman taught us many decades ago, monetary policy works with long and variable lags. Recent economic reports suggest that the long and variable lags on the tightening of monetary policy in 2022-23 are starting to come to an end.
A recent mid-year strategist pulse check from Natixis revealed where strategists believe the top opportunities exist across markets.
Economic indicators are released every week to provide insight into the overall health and performance of an economy.
In bullish years, markets often have corrections. Yet, after a lengthy bullish run, it always surprises me how quickly investors and the media panic with the slightest hint of a market pullback.
The Federal Reserve is between the Rock of Gibraltar and the Rocky Mountains. The data they use to explain their policy choices is in apparent transition. A self-aware analyst, seeing the conflicting data, knows that the right policy choice will only be understood in hindsight.
Treasury yields plunged below 4% this week for the first time since January on recession fears as global manufacturing activity contracted and hiring in the U.S. slowed dramatically in July.
When growth slows and rates fall, what will happen to an asset class with long-dated cash flows that are not very economically sensitive? Well, it is likely to strongly outperform. Ergo the short-term outlook for growth relative to value/small caps appear to be rosy.
On July 31, the U.S. Treasury released its most recent Quarterly Refunding Announcement which revealed its financing strategy, presenting both positive and restrictive elements for global liquidity.
The secrets for a blueprint for young investors are: Start young. Be disciplined, do it regularly. Focus on what your needs are and what your goals are.
The members of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) are probably not intimately familiar with Taylor Swift’s back catalogue. If they were, Swift’s hit “Cruel Summer” may have been ringing in their ears when cutting rates today for the first time since March 2020.
Once again, the Fed kept rates unchanged at the July FOMC meeting. As a result, the Fed Funds trading range remains in the 5.25%–5.50% band that was introduced exactly a year ago and still resides at a more than 20-year high watermark.
Advisors and investors that want to try to outperform can still gain some diversification benefits using concentrated ETFs.
While election news dominated July's headlines, small-cap stocks had their best monthly performance relative to large-cap stocks since December 2000.
We have been talking about resiliency-driven inflation for the past several weeks. As the US and its Western allies realign supply chains to strengthen economic resiliency, the cost of certain goods and commodities will go up.
Some investors who had previously expressed devotion to the largest digital currency propelled it higher last month.
ETFs had a big July, with some leading strategies lifting their YTD inflow totals behind strong July numbers.
Like you, we have read countless comparisons between today’s enthusiasm for all things AI and the top of the TMT bubble in 2000, with the implication being that stocks are on thin ice.
The central bank’s latest policy statement and Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks suggest that an initial interest rate cut could come as soon as September.
The Federal Reserve noted that inflation is moving closer to its 2% target after electing to hold rates steady at its July FOMC meeting.
The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for growth, inflation and interest rates in major markets.
Coming into this earnings season, one of the most intriguing questions was how well the consumer-facing companies would be able to maintain their pricing power. The new algorithm for success is a bit more complicated than “raise prices by x.”
In this article, Russ Koesterich discusses factors behind gold’s impressive performance year to date.
The Federal Reserve kept its policy rate unchanged at the July meeting, but left the door open to rate cuts later this year.
With tech stocks making up a substantial portion of broad market indexes, investors may wonder what will happen when the tech rally ends.
Today’s passive index investing requires active choices, as customization and innovations in index funds have resulted in new considerations for investors and the potential for greater control.
In mid-July, VettaFi's webcast asked what advisors were concerned about. “Market valuation” topped the list of choices with 56%.
Demand growth is cooling, but evidence suggests that overall fundamentals are still sound.
Reasonable Treasury debt ratios and more than enough buyers put Treasuries in a much better light than is commonly heard.
Could this be the last Fed meeting before rate cuts begin? With inflation moderating and job growth weakening, the Fed prepared markets for a more eventful meeting in September while not committing to anything just yet.
Jeff and Ron discuss the state of the economy, inflation, the bond and stock markets, and they outline, in broad terms, their current investments.
Investors will want to see valuations justified by robust fundamentals during big tech earnings reports this week.
Options strategies remain a popular choice with advisors and investors for the benefits they bring to portfolios.
Value — defined by stocks with a low book-to-market ratio — handily beat growth by a minimum of 4% on average annually over the period 1927-2014, although surprisingly with a higher standard deviation. In today’s world, think Verizon versus the Magnificent Seven decades forward.
We are approaching a turning point in policy decisions as the FOMC attempts to walk the fine line of hitting their inflation targets while maintaining a healthy labor market.
The economic data is coming in very good for markets. Starting with GDP, we observed a modest growth rate of around 2% in the first half of the year. While not spectacular, it’s far from recessionary conditions. This level of growth, with slight inventory accumulation, suggests a stable economic backdrop.
I chaired an international economics conference in Canada earlier this month. Delegates from all over the world attended to discuss the issues of the day. Following is an abridged version of the meeting summary that I offered during the closing session.
Overly optimistic investor expectations of market returns may be a problem.
Potential for another trade war fueled by a rise in global protectionist policies has investors revisiting the potential impact on stocks, inflation, and economic growth.
The US Department of Labor (DOL) offers eight tips for advisors to use to review target-date funds. Our Mike Dullaghan illustrates how to use the DOL tips in preparation for plan review season.
The rise of LLMs and public availability of generative AI tools has driven a wave of excitement over AI’s potential to transform society, economies, and workflows.
Our outlook on the 11 S&P 500 equity sectors.
As gold prices continue to rise, investors may want to consider gold miners, which are offering incredible value.
