The Income Channel

At Least We Can Be Thankful for the 11 "Fair" Traders

Most of the rest of the world is so unfair to us (U.S.) when it comes to trade. If it were not for this unfairness, perhaps the U.S would rank higher than ninth in the world in per capita GDP adjusted for purchasing power parity (PPP), according to the World Bank.

Where Might Credit Risks Exist? Follow the Supply

In 2017, corporate credit, including high yield, saw a resurgence in interest within a longer-term trend of increasing supply. In recent weeks, however, it has shown some cracks.

The Upside of Unintended Consequences

There could always be an exogenous event like military conflict with North Korea, strife in the Middle East that cuts off oil flow or Russian aggression in the Baltics that unsettles markets. The market is assuming none of that will happen, and if the market is right, we have at least one to two years to go before we get into serious trouble. My overall conclusion is that there are significant investment opportunities outside the United States and many portfolio managers are under-weighted globally.

The "Real" Goods on the October Durable Goods Data

Earlier today the Census Bureau posted the Advance Report on Durable Goods New Orders. This series dates from 1992 and is not adjusted for either population growth or inflation. Let's now review Durable Goods data with two adjustments.

Taking Tally of the Global Rally

As we look ahead to 2018, it’s important to first recognize how significant 2017 has been for international markets. This is the eighth year of a global bull market, but prior to 2017, international markets had trailed the US for four consecutive years — and for six of the last seven years.

Michigan Consumer Sentiment: November Final Remains Optimistic

The University of Michigan Final Consumer Sentiment for November came in at 98.5, down 2.2 from the October Final reading of 100.7. had forecast 98.0.

Household Debt Rises to New Record of $13 Trillion

A new report from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York last week found that US household debt hit another record high in the 3Q of almost $13 trillion. The largest increases came in student loans, auto debt and credit cards. I’ll share the details with you just below.

Is a New Crisis Brewing in Germany and Europe?

Many of us were under the assumption that we could go into the holiday season with Europe pretty much checked off the risk list. The economic news is good and getting better, and the major elections that have caused so much angst have passed. Not so fast, bub.

The “Twin” Deficits

Nothing causes more anger, confusion, and bewilderment than the trade deficit – that is, except for the federal budget deficit. In past decades, these were often called “the twin deficits.” They are not identical, but they are related.

Striving for a Better World

Giving Day, the Tuesday after Thanksgiving, is fast approaching and with it the year-end charitable-giving season kicks off in earnest. In light of that, here is the response to one of the most common refrains we hear as we work with clients to structure their giving programs: “How can I ensure that my gifts truly make an impact?”

Chinese Corporate Credit: Five Themes for 2018

Growth in China’s offshore corporate bond market seems likely to continue in 2018, driven by the financing needs of investment grade state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and private sector...

Understanding the CFNAI Components

The Chicago Fed's National Activity Index, which we reported on this morning, is based on 85 economic indicators drawn from four broad categories of data:

  • Production and Income
  • Employment, Unemployment, and Hours
  • Personal Consumption and Housing
  • Sales, Orders, and Inventories

Merrill Memo

Charles Merrill issued the aforementioned memo to clients on March 31, 1928. At the end of the first quarter in 1928 the D-J Industrial Average was around 240. It subsequently rose to a September 3, 1929 peak of 381.17, which was the price peak for the Industrials that would not be surpassed until 1954, not that we are predicting anything like that here.

Weighing the Week Ahead: Will Black Friday Lead to a Green Market?

The economic calendar includes few reports, crammed into two days of a holiday-shortened week. Many will be taking time off – including some of the “A List” pundits. I expect to see some new faces on financial television and a lot of discussion about consumers and the economy. Many will be asking: What does Black Friday mean for the economy, and for stocks?

Jeremy Siegel: The S&P 500 is Fairly Valued

The bull market in U.S. equities is behind us, according to Wharton professor Jeremy Siegel, who says that the S&P 500 is now “fairly priced.”