The last couple of years have been remarkable ones for yields. The 10-year note hit its historic closing low of 1.37% in July of 2016 and then rose 158 BPs to its interim high of 2.95% as of the June 15 close.
Team performance matters more than star players or a large resource base. And in a rapidly changing world, Totaalvoetbal can help teams adapt.
I spend a lot of time on the road speaking to our investors and advisors and one of the common questions I get during the Q&A sessions is, “What keeps you up at night?” Aside from having an 18-year old daughter—and being a chronic insomniac anyway—my reply usually centers around debt and the burden it has and will continue to place on our economy.
Each year, Social Security’s Trustees report to Congress on the financial status of the program. This typically generates a number of anxiety-provoking media headlines about if/when it will run out of money. Gail Buckner, CFP, our personal retirement and financial planning strategist, takes a look at the facts. She says Social Security is actually in pretty good shape overall.
"A rising global interest rate environment is once again leading to volatility in the emerging debt markets,” writes GMO’s Carl Ross in a newly-published Emerging Debt Insights piece. As the US 10-year Treasury has risen to the 3% neighborhood, benchmarks of emerging country bonds, both in hard currency and local currency, have fallen.
Greg Silberman explains his take on the life cycle of private investments.
This memo covers three ways in which securities markets seem to be moving toward reducing the role of people: (a) index investing and other forms of passive investing, (b) quantitative and algorithmic investing, and © artificial intelligence and machine learning.
Four of eight indexes on our world watch list have posted gains through Monday, June 18, 2018. The top performer this year is India's BSE SENSEX with a gain of 5.13%. In second is our own S&P 500 with a gain of 3.75%. In third is France's CAC 40 with a gain of 2.60%. Coming in last is Shanghai's SSE with a loss of 8.63%.
Energy equities have underperformed the S&P 500 materially over the last five years. While spot oil prices have risen significantly over the last twelve months, longer dated oil prices have not, and energy equities have remained under pressure.
We've always been skeptical that bond yields carry deep meaning about the future. Low Treasury bond yields in recent years were said to be a signal of slower growth, or possibly a recession, ahead. And the bond world said stocks were over-valued.
Small caps have materially outperformed large caps in 2018, with the S&P SmallCap 600 Index outpacing the S&P 500 Index 7.80% to 2.58% between Dec. 29, 2017, and May 25, 2018. Below, I highlight the drivers of small-cap returns this year, and why I believe the trend could continue.
We have used this quip from the book Why You Win or Lose: The Psychology of Speculation by Fred C. Kelly many times in our missives over the past nearly five decades because the wisdom of its message is timeless. We recalled it last week in many of our meetings in New York City when we heard certain individual investors, as well as portfolio managers (PMs), say “I should have!”
Recent posts from the diversified fixed income team have discussed how bond investors should be prepared to navigate a market that may look very different from what they've grown used to. In other words, it might be time to reassess the old bond-investing playbook.
Much has been written about residential mortgage modifications, yet hardly anything has been said about the problem of re-defaults on modified mortgages. In large part, this is due to the paucity of accurate data about borrowers re-defaulting. It is time to clearly lay out how extensive this problem really is, what it means for mortgage markets and the dangers it poses for investors.
Of the two certainties we face – death and taxes – only taxes can be purposefully delayed or avoided altogether. Here are some ways to do that with highly appreciated securities.
My first book, The Only Guide to a Winning Investment Strategy You’ll Ever Need, was first published 20 years ago, in May 1998. With its 20th anniversary in mind, let’s see how my recommendations worked out for investors who followed them.
Steps financial advisors can take to build deeper trust with clients as change occurs within the financial advice industry.
Californians live in fear of a devastating earthquake. But homeowners are far more likely to suffer a loss from a fire or even a sewer backup. The proper insurance protects against those losses. But, according to Brian Trouette, many homeowners lack sufficient coverage.
The U.S. inflation story made further inroads this month, with year-over-year price growth for consumers and producers alike hitting multiyear highs. U.S. consumer prices expanded at their strongest pace in more than six years, climbing to an annual change of 2.8 percent in May. Prices for final demand goods, meanwhile, grew 3.1 percent, their strongest annual surge since December 2011.
What happened at the Fed and the ECB meetings? The economics team explains.
The pension crisis alone has catastrophic potential damage, let alone all the other debt problems we’re discussing in this series. You are sadly mistaken if you think it will end in anything other than a train wreck. The only questions are how serious the damage will be, and who will pick up the bill.
The S&P 500 spent the majority of the week seesawing until Friday when it opened lower than Thursday and dropped midday. The index was down 0.11% from Thursday and is up a measly basis point from last Friday. The index is up 3.10% YTD and is 3.25% below its record close.
Let's take a closer look at recent activity in US Treasuries. The yield on the 10-year note ended Friday at 2.93% and the 30-year bond closed at 3.05%. The 2-10 yield spread is now at 0.38%.
Today's report on Industrial Production for May shows a 0.1% decrease month-over-month, which was worse than the Investing.com consensus of 0.2%. The year-over-year change is 3.46%, down slightly from last month's YoY increase. Revisions were made to the previous five months.
The European Central Bank’s June meeting has offered some long-hoped-for clarity on the future direction of monetary policy in the eurozone. However, it hasn’t provided all the answers, and much remains open to interpretation. David Zahn, Franklin Templeton’s head of European Fixed Income, considers what might happen next and explains why he’s still not expecting a eurozone interest-rate hike before 2020.
To put Procter & Gamble’s current valuation into perspective, this blue-chip can be purchased today with a 3.7% current dividend yield which is hovering around the highest it has been over the past two decades. Furthermore, Procter & Gamble appears attractively valued over virtually every rational valuation metric that prudent value investors might consider.
This morning's release of the publicly available data from ECRI puts its Weekly Leading Index (WLI) at 149.3, up 0.08 from the previous week. Year-over-year the four-week moving average of the indicator is now at 3.40%, up from 3.22% last week. The WLI Growth indicator is now at 2.7, up from the previous week.
Investors and their advisors must be alert to managing both pre-tax and after-tax alpha in order for investors to realize the highest possible return from their taxable portfolios. Increasingly, the opportunities to accomplish both goals are within reach of investors through, for example, tax-advantaged smart beta strategies and tax-efficient vehicles such as ETFs.
The University of Michigan Preliminary Consumer Sentiment for June came in at 99.3, up 1.3 from the May Final reading. Investing.com had forecast 98.5.
Every quarter we ask bond and currency managers to consider valuations, expectations and outlooks for the coming months. Today, we’ve put the spotlight on U.S. rates and inflation expectations, credit markets and casualties from rising U.S. interest rates.
The Weekly Leading Economic Index (WLEI) uses fifty different time series from these categories: Corporate Bond Composite, Treasury Bond Composite, Stock Market Composite, Labor Market Composite, Credit Market Composite.
In predictable fashion, the Fed increased borrowing costs again today. How long could the central bank stick to its quarterly rate-hiking rhythm?
The US Federal Reserve continued its tightening path at its June policy meeting, raising its benchmark interest rate for the second time this year and seventh time since December 2015. Chris Molumphy, chief investment officer, Franklin Templeton Fixed Income Group, offers us a snapshot of the US monetary policy landscape in the wake of the meeting.
Venezuela has experienced a collapse in oil production this year as the country sinks into chaos. Daily production is down from 1.7M barrels/day at the end of last year to just 1.44M barrels/day at the end of May. Year-over-year production declines are even larger, down about 500k barrels/day.
Note: With the release of May Retail Sales and Consumer Price Index, we've updated this commentary to include the latest Real Retail Sales. Month-over-month nominal sales in May increased by 0.8% (0.83% to two decimals). Real Retail Sales, calculated with the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index, increased by 0.62%.
Based on the logical, risk-based explanations for the value premium, and the lack of evidence pointing to shrinking valuation spreads, my conclusion is that the most recent 10 years of performance is likely just another of those occasionally occurring but fairly long periods in which the value premium is negative.
While the recent backup in 10-year Treasury yields may look stark on short-term charts (namely 1-year and 2-year charts), the move we’ve seen in rates thus far is actually very normal considering where we are in the economic cycle.
The Federal Reserve’s decision today to hike its policy rate by 25 basis points (bps) to a range of 1.75% to 2.0% was widely expected. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) also signaled growing consensus that the robust pace of economic activity warrants two more rate hikes this year, for a total of four in 2018.
An entire generation of advisors and investors has grown up observing interest rates that only go down and bond prices that only go up. But with potentially volatile interest rates, investors may experience losses in their fixed income portfolios if they don’t adapt to a variety of different scenarios. This guide takes a look at strategies to help investors pursue their financial goals amid changing interest rates.
Let's do some analysis of the Consumer Price Index, the best-known measure of inflation. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) divides all expenditures into eight categories and assigns a relative size to each. The pie chart illustrates the components of the Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers, the CPI-U.
The federal deficit and the cost to service that debt are rising at the same time. This historical anomaly is putting the U.S. on a “suicide mission,” according to Jeffrey Gundlach.
We've updated this series to include this week's release of the Consumer Price Index as the deflator and the May monthly update. The latest hypothetical real (inflation-adjusted) annual earnings are at $38,177, down 12.4% from 45-plus years ago.
As the Trump administration continues to threaten tariffs targeting a variety of imported goods, from electronics to washing machines to automobiles, many market commentators have suggested the US-led trade skirmishes could turn into a trade war.
At a time of low expected returns, low current yields and economic uncertainty, individual investors are demanding new options. Recent advances in product design enable investors to access less liquid and illiquid institutional-caliber alternatives in a “user-friendly” format which preserves the integrity of the underlying strategy. These new product designs contrast mutual funds which may contain watered-down liquid versions of the original.
New thinking about liquidity, its role in a portfolio and improved access to a wide spectrum of alternatives enables investors to deploy less liquid strategies and capitalize on liquidity premiums.
One of the potential rude awakenings that we advised investors to prepare for in our recent Secular Outlook is a surprising surge of productivity growth over the next several years.
The Income Channel
Treasury Yields: A Long-Term Perspective
The last couple of years have been remarkable ones for yields. The 10-year note hit its historic closing low of 1.37% in July of 2016 and then rose 158 BPs to its interim high of 2.95% as of the June 15 close.
The Beautiful Game: Surprising Insights from the World Cup about Strategy and Teamwork
Team performance matters more than star players or a large resource base. And in a rapidly changing world, Totaalvoetbal can help teams adapt.
Debt Song: It’s Not a Pretty Tune
I spend a lot of time on the road speaking to our investors and advisors and one of the common questions I get during the Q&A sessions is, “What keeps you up at night?” Aside from having an 18-year old daughter—and being a chronic insomniac anyway—my reply usually centers around debt and the burden it has and will continue to place on our economy.
Social Security: It’s Healthier Than You Might Think!
Each year, Social Security’s Trustees report to Congress on the financial status of the program. This typically generates a number of anxiety-provoking media headlines about if/when it will run out of money. Gail Buckner, CFP, our personal retirement and financial planning strategist, takes a look at the facts. She says Social Security is actually in pretty good shape overall.
Emerging Debt in a Rising Interest Rate Environment
"A rising global interest rate environment is once again leading to volatility in the emerging debt markets,” writes GMO’s Carl Ross in a newly-published Emerging Debt Insights piece. As the US 10-year Treasury has risen to the 3% neighborhood, benchmarks of emerging country bonds, both in hard currency and local currency, have fallen.
How to Avoid a Fund Blow Up
Greg Silberman explains his take on the life cycle of private investments.
Investing Without People
This memo covers three ways in which securities markets seem to be moving toward reducing the role of people: (a) index investing and other forms of passive investing, (b) quantitative and algorithmic investing, and © artificial intelligence and machine learning.
World Markets Update
Four of eight indexes on our world watch list have posted gains through Monday, June 18, 2018. The top performer this year is India's BSE SENSEX with a gain of 5.13%. In second is our own S&P 500 with a gain of 3.75%. In third is France's CAC 40 with a gain of 2.60%. Coming in last is Shanghai's SSE with a loss of 8.63%.
Oil Has Rebounded but Energy Equities Have Lagged. Is It over Already?
Energy equities have underperformed the S&P 500 materially over the last five years. While spot oil prices have risen significantly over the last twelve months, longer dated oil prices have not, and energy equities have remained under pressure.
Bonds Misjudge The Future
We've always been skeptical that bond yields carry deep meaning about the future. Low Treasury bond yields in recent years were said to be a signal of slower growth, or possibly a recession, ahead. And the bond world said stocks were over-valued.
Can Small-Cap Outperformance Continue?
Small caps have materially outperformed large caps in 2018, with the S&P SmallCap 600 Index outpacing the S&P 500 Index 7.80% to 2.58% between Dec. 29, 2017, and May 25, 2018. Below, I highlight the drivers of small-cap returns this year, and why I believe the trend could continue.
I Should Have
We have used this quip from the book Why You Win or Lose: The Psychology of Speculation by Fred C. Kelly many times in our missives over the past nearly five decades because the wisdom of its message is timeless. We recalled it last week in many of our meetings in New York City when we heard certain individual investors, as well as portfolio managers (PMs), say “I should have!”
It's Time to Throw out the Old Bond-Investing Playbook
Recent posts from the diversified fixed income team have discussed how bond investors should be prepared to navigate a market that may look very different from what they've grown used to. In other words, it might be time to reassess the old bond-investing playbook.
Will Re-Defaults of Mortgage Modifications Undermine Housing Markets?
Much has been written about residential mortgage modifications, yet hardly anything has been said about the problem of re-defaults on modified mortgages. In large part, this is due to the paucity of accurate data about borrowers re-defaulting. It is time to clearly lay out how extensive this problem really is, what it means for mortgage markets and the dangers it poses for investors.
How to Avoid Taxes with Highly Appreciated Securities
Of the two certainties we face – death and taxes – only taxes can be purposefully delayed or avoided altogether. Here are some ways to do that with highly appreciated securities.
The Battle of the Passive Strategies
My first book, The Only Guide to a Winning Investment Strategy You’ll Ever Need, was first published 20 years ago, in May 1998. With its 20th anniversary in mind, let’s see how my recommendations worked out for investors who followed them.
The evolution of Vanguard Advisor’s Alpha®: From portfolios to people
Steps financial advisors can take to build deeper trust with clients as change occurs within the financial advice industry.
Lessons from the North Bay Fires
Californians live in fear of a devastating earthquake. But homeowners are far more likely to suffer a loss from a fire or even a sewer backup. The proper insurance protects against those losses. But, according to Brian Trouette, many homeowners lack sufficient coverage.
Take the Long-Term View in a Late-Cycle Market
The U.S. inflation story made further inroads this month, with year-over-year price growth for consumers and producers alike hitting multiyear highs. U.S. consumer prices expanded at their strongest pace in more than six years, climbing to an annual change of 2.8 percent in May. Prices for final demand goods, meanwhile, grew 3.1 percent, their strongest annual surge since December 2011.
The Fed Pursues Net Neutrality
What happened at the Fed and the ECB meetings? The economics team explains.
The Pension Train Has No Seat Belts
The pension crisis alone has catastrophic potential damage, let alone all the other debt problems we’re discussing in this series. You are sadly mistaken if you think it will end in anything other than a train wreck. The only questions are how serious the damage will be, and who will pick up the bill.
S&P 500 Snapshot: Down 0.1% from Yesterday, Mostly Unchanged from Last Week
The S&P 500 spent the majority of the week seesawing until Friday when it opened lower than Thursday and dropped midday. The index was down 0.11% from Thursday and is up a measly basis point from last Friday. The index is up 3.10% YTD and is 3.25% below its record close.
Treasury Snapshot: 10-Year Yield Remains at 2.93%
Let's take a closer look at recent activity in US Treasuries. The yield on the 10-year note ended Friday at 2.93% and the 30-year bond closed at 3.05%. The 2-10 yield spread is now at 0.38%.
The Big Four Economic Indicators: Industrial Production Down 0.1% in May
Today's report on Industrial Production for May shows a 0.1% decrease month-over-month, which was worse than the Investing.com consensus of 0.2%. The year-over-year change is 3.46%, down slightly from last month's YoY increase. Revisions were made to the previous five months.
ECB Meeting: Fresh Clarity, But Let’s Not Get Ahead of Ourselves
The European Central Bank’s June meeting has offered some long-hoped-for clarity on the future direction of monetary policy in the eurozone. However, it hasn’t provided all the answers, and much remains open to interpretation. David Zahn, Franklin Templeton’s head of European Fixed Income, considers what might happen next and explains why he’s still not expecting a eurozone interest-rate hike before 2020.
It Is No Longer a Gamble Investing in Procter & Gamble: Part 5
To put Procter & Gamble’s current valuation into perspective, this blue-chip can be purchased today with a 3.7% current dividend yield which is hovering around the highest it has been over the past two decades. Furthermore, Procter & Gamble appears attractively valued over virtually every rational valuation metric that prudent value investors might consider.
ECRI Weekly Leading Index Update
This morning's release of the publicly available data from ECRI puts its Weekly Leading Index (WLI) at 149.3, up 0.08 from the previous week. Year-over-year the four-week moving average of the indicator is now at 3.40%, up from 3.22% last week. The WLI Growth indicator is now at 2.7, up from the previous week.
Is Your Alpha Big Enough to Cover Its Taxes? A Quarter-Century Retrospective
Investors and their advisors must be alert to managing both pre-tax and after-tax alpha in order for investors to realize the highest possible return from their taxable portfolios. Increasingly, the opportunities to accomplish both goals are within reach of investors through, for example, tax-advantaged smart beta strategies and tax-efficient vehicles such as ETFs.
Michigan Consumer Sentiment: June Preliminary Rose Slightly
The University of Michigan Preliminary Consumer Sentiment for June came in at 99.3, up 1.3 from the May Final reading. Investing.com had forecast 98.5.
Q2 2018 Fixed Income Survey: The U.S. Growth Domino Effect
Every quarter we ask bond and currency managers to consider valuations, expectations and outlooks for the coming months. Today, we’ve put the spotlight on U.S. rates and inflation expectations, credit markets and casualties from rising U.S. interest rates.
RecessionAlert Weekly Leading Index Update
The Weekly Leading Economic Index (WLEI) uses fifty different time series from these categories: Corporate Bond Composite, Treasury Bond Composite, Stock Market Composite, Labor Market Composite, Credit Market Composite.
June Fomc Meeting: Slow and Steady with Another Rate Increase
In predictable fashion, the Fed increased borrowing costs again today. How long could the central bank stick to its quarterly rate-hiking rhythm?
Fed Gives US Interest Rates Another Bump in June
The US Federal Reserve continued its tightening path at its June policy meeting, raising its benchmark interest rate for the second time this year and seventh time since December 2015. Chris Molumphy, chief investment officer, Franklin Templeton Fixed Income Group, offers us a snapshot of the US monetary policy landscape in the wake of the meeting.
A Reflationary Inflection in Oil Inventories
Venezuela has experienced a collapse in oil production this year as the country sinks into chaos. Daily production is down from 1.7M barrels/day at the end of last year to just 1.44M barrels/day at the end of May. Year-over-year production declines are even larger, down about 500k barrels/day.
The Big Four Economic Indicators: May Real Retail Sales
Note: With the release of May Retail Sales and Consumer Price Index, we've updated this commentary to include the latest Real Retail Sales. Month-over-month nominal sales in May increased by 0.8% (0.83% to two decimals). Real Retail Sales, calculated with the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index, increased by 0.62%.
In Defense of the Value Premium
Based on the logical, risk-based explanations for the value premium, and the lack of evidence pointing to shrinking valuation spreads, my conclusion is that the most recent 10 years of performance is likely just another of those occasionally occurring but fairly long periods in which the value premium is negative.
Nothing to See Here: Rising 10-Year Treasury Yields in Context
While the recent backup in 10-year Treasury yields may look stark on short-term charts (namely 1-year and 2-year charts), the move we’ve seen in rates thus far is actually very normal considering where we are in the economic cycle.
The Fed Raises Rates as Expected but the Path of Future Hikes Grows More Uncertain
The Federal Reserve’s decision today to hike its policy rate by 25 basis points (bps) to a range of 1.75% to 2.0% was widely expected. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) also signaled growing consensus that the robust pace of economic activity warrants two more rate hikes this year, for a total of four in 2018.
Scenario Planning: Expectations for Interest Rates
An entire generation of advisors and investors has grown up observing interest rates that only go down and bond prices that only go up. But with potentially volatile interest rates, investors may experience losses in their fixed income portfolios if they don’t adapt to a variety of different scenarios. This guide takes a look at strategies to help investors pursue their financial goals amid changing interest rates.
What Inflation Means to You: Inside the Consumer Price Index
Let's do some analysis of the Consumer Price Index, the best-known measure of inflation. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) divides all expenditures into eight categories and assigns a relative size to each. The pie chart illustrates the components of the Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers, the CPI-U.
Gundlach: Federal Debt is on a Suicide Mission
The federal deficit and the cost to service that debt are rising at the same time. This historical anomaly is putting the U.S. on a “suicide mission,” according to Jeffrey Gundlach.
Five Decades of Middle-Class Wages: May 2018 Update
We've updated this series to include this week's release of the Consumer Price Index as the deflator and the May monthly update. The latest hypothetical real (inflation-adjusted) annual earnings are at $38,177, down 12.4% from 45-plus years ago.
Three Things to Think about When It Comes to Trade
As the Trump administration continues to threaten tariffs targeting a variety of imported goods, from electronics to washing machines to automobiles, many market commentators have suggested the US-led trade skirmishes could turn into a trade war.
INVEST LIKE THE PROS: Using Liquidity Premiums to Drive Better Portfolio Outcomes
At a time of low expected returns, low current yields and economic uncertainty, individual investors are demanding new options. Recent advances in product design enable investors to access less liquid and illiquid institutional-caliber alternatives in a “user-friendly” format which preserves the integrity of the underlying strategy. These new product designs contrast mutual funds which may contain watered-down liquid versions of the original.
New thinking about liquidity, its role in a portfolio and improved access to a wide spectrum of alternatives enables investors to deploy less liquid strategies and capitalize on liquidity premiums.
Productivity Awakening?
One of the potential rude awakenings that we advised investors to prepare for in our recent Secular Outlook is a surprising surge of productivity growth over the next several years.