The Income Channel

Market Outlook: Don't Forget Your Umbrella!

Market volatility does exist! After a year of all-time low volatility and booming stock and bond markets, investors received a wake-up call in February when equity indexes around the globe sold off by as much as 10% in a matter of days.

At Cycle Turn, Fed Can Follow Two Possible Paths

Rieder and Brownback discuss how cyclical turning points result in market friction, even with solid growth, presenting the Fed with two potential paths.

10 Fairly Valued Dividend Growth Stocks for Total Return: Part 4

This is the fourth of a five-part series presenting 50 dividend growth stocks that I have screened for current fair value. With this article, I will be covering 10 additional dividend growth research candidates with moderate to higher yields...

Managing Volatility in Short‑term Markets: The Global Liquidity Ladder

In a storm, you want to be able to reach higher ground. Recent market volatility – sparked by concerns over interest rates, inflation, global trade, the tech sector and more – has many investors shifting toward more defensive portfolio positions.

Who Said the Rules of the Game Could Change Because LIBOR’s Going Away?

There’s been a lot of discussion in the fixed income world about the end of the London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR) and what might replace it. But what hasn’t been as widely discussed is an important consequence for investors in this space: changes to LIBOR language in new-issue and amended credit agreements—particularly how these changes are implemented.

Quarterly Review and Outlook, First Quarter 2018

Nearly nine years into the current economic expansion Federal Reserve policy actions appear to be benign, as even after six increases, the federal funds rate remains less than 2%. Changes in the reserve, monetary and credit aggregates, which have always been the most important Fed levers both theoretically and empirically, indicate however that central bank policy has turned highly restrictive.

Conference Board Leading Economic Index: Slight Increase in March

The latest Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for March increased to 109.0 from 108.7 in February. The Coincident Economic Index (CEI) came in at 103.4, up from the previous month.

Protectionists Hide in Your Wallet

When you see trade deficit data between the US and China, be aware that the numbers are vastly different depending on the source. China actually follows a more commonly used protocol to account for trade than does the US. For 2016, for example, US data shows a $375 billion trade deficit with China, whereas China shows $276 billion.

S&P 500 Snapshot: Up 0.5% YTD

The S&P 500 has continued its bounceback as of Wednesday's close and is down 0.5% YTD and is 5.7% below its record close.

Planning for a Successful Transition to a New Firm

You have undoubtedly heard stories about brokers changing firms who experienced everything from a minor disruption in revenue to an all-out career catastrophe. While you cannot anticipate every event, there is one thing you can do: Plan your work, and work your plan.

Time for Investors to Prepare for the Next Cycle

The global economic expansion has already entered its 10th year. With bumpy and brittle growth having given way to a robust and globally synchronized conjuncture, an aging cycle has suddenly become much more cyclical.

Reflections on Globalization: Part II

Last week, we introduced this topic by discussing the Cold War. This week, we will continue our analysis with a reflection on markets, an examination of hegemony and a discussion of the expansion of globalization and the rise of meritocracy and its discontents.

With Inflation Rising, Commodities May Shine

Many investors who thought worrying about inflation was “so 20th century” may now be seeing reasons to reconsider: The business cycle in the U.S. is mature, output gaps have closed, trade frictions are mounting and populism is on the rise.

Who’s Afraid of Rising Rates?

Investing 101 tells us that rising interest rates are bad for a bond portfolio. But if you’ve got a long investment horizon, that isn’t necessarily so. We think investors should be more concerned about the end of the credit cycle than rising rates.

The Big Four Economic Indicators: Industrial Production Up 0.5% in March

Today's report on Industrial Production for March shows a 0.5% increase month-over-month, which was better than the consensus of 0.3%. The year-over-year change is 4.33%, down fractionally from last month's YoY increase.