The Case for Owning Gold
Thomas Kertsos is a portfolio manager and senior research analyst at First Eagle Investment Management. He is the manager of the First Eagle Gold Fund (SGGSX), which, as of June 30, has returned 5.37% since its inception, on 8/31/93. That is 645 basis points better than its benchmark, the FTSE Gold Mines Index (-1.08%).
There They Go Again...Again
I’m in the process of writing another book, going into great depth regarding one of the most important things discussed in my book The Most Important Thing: cycles, their causes, and what to do about them. It will be out next year, but this memo will give you a preview regarding one of the most important cyclical phenomena.
Some Speed Bumps Slowing the Bull
I continue to believe that the two most important issues receiving inadequate investor attention are productivity and the role of central bank liquidity in the performance of financial markets. Productivity is critical to both earnings improvement and a rising standard of living.
Mid-Year Outlook: Be More Selective in the Second Half
After a strong first half to 2017 for equities, the message for the remainder of the year is to look for returns more carefully in the second half says Neil Dwane, global strategist for Allianz Global Investors. The “country factor” will be key: We believe investors can no longer rely on a rising tide of cyclical data to lift all boats.
2017 Update: Median Home Price and Salary Required in 27 Major Cities
Keith Gumbinger, Vice President at HSH.com, features a periodic update entitled "The Salary You Must Earn to Buy a Home in 27 Metros". The key question is:
"How much salary do you need to earn in order to afford the principal and interest payments on a median-priced home in your metro area?"
Risk Versus Reward
Psychologists have uncovered a surprising number of idiosyncrasies from making the soundest choice in many situations. These lapses explain some of the mysterious up and downdrafts that can lift and lower stock prices. Understanding them can make successful investing easier. The most important findings arise from answers to a pair of questions.
China and Emerging Asia: A New Dawn for the Capital Markets
Asia’s integration into world financial markets may be accelerating.
July 2017 Market Commentary
It is stinking hot and steamy on the East Coast these days, as the proverbial “dog days of summer” set in. Historically, this was a time of year when things slowed down, people went on vacation, and it was generally too hot to move fast, but not this year.
Dynamic Asset Allocation for Practitioners Part 1: Universe Selection
In 2012 we published a whitepaper entitled “Adaptive Asset Allocation: A Primer” in which we built upon the simple, robust momentum framework proposed by Mebane Faber in his 2009 study “Relative Strength Strategies for Investing.”
Bronfman Rothschild 2017 Q2 Review
Supply and demand seems to have been placed on the backburner in today’s world of prognosticating inflation, employment, and GDP. The first point is the supply of publicly traded stock in the US. The second point is the supply of money.
The first week of earnings did little to change the overall market’s trend. In fact, it may have provided reasons to reinforce it. While the week's reports were mostly beats at the top and bottom lines (just like three months ago), the reception to some of the more cyclical company earnings reports (Banks and Industrials) were very unwelcoming.
Home Prices Rose 5.6% Year-over-Year NSA in May
With today's release of the May S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, we learned that seasonally adjusted home prices for the benchmark 20-city index were up 0.1% month over month. The seasonally adjusted national index year-over-year change has hovered between 4.2% and 5.8% for the last twenty-seven months. Today's S&P/Case-Shiller National Home Price Index (nominal) reached another new high.
Consumer Confidence Improved in July
The latest Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index was released this morning based on data collected through July 14. The headline number of 121.1 was an increase from the final reading of 117.3 for June, a downward revision from 118.9. Today's number was above the Investing.com consensus of 116.5.
Fund Manager Allocations
Global equities have risen 7% in the past 3 months and 16% in the past year, yet fund managers continue to hold significant amounts of cash, suggesting lingering doubts and fears.