If you’d rather get ahead of where income allocations are heading than read about them in next quarter’s flow report, this is the session.
Join the experts at T. Rowe Price for a product due diligence session exploring how modern derivative-based strategies can be used to supplement the income sleeve of a portfolio and systematically gain market exposure.
Join the experts at GraniteShares to hear all about their autocallable ETF suite and find out how it could improve your income conversations with clients.
Join the experts at SS&C ALPS Advisors and BBH for an educational webcast exploring municipal bonds and how inflation, geopolitics, and more are impacting the space.
GraniteShares and VettaFi are coming together for a state-of-the-category briefing: the flow data behind the surge, the structural reasons advisors are making room in income sleeves, how the category has held up across different rate and volatility regimes, and the diligence questions worth asking before adding it to a model.
Halfway through 2026, this market perspective is harder to write with confidence than most. That’s not a phrase I use lightly. Over four decades of markets, there have been plenty of uncertain moments, but the number of significant, unresolved issues I’m watching right now is unusually high.
In a world of high starting yields and rupturing economic alliances, investors who actively diversify across regions, sectors, and currencies can be better positioned to pursue durable returns.
VettaFi currently has index products tied to ETFs issued by American Century, Victory Capital, and ALPS ETFs, but the addition of RAFI products issued by Invesco and PIMCO that are fundamentally weighted is really exciting, according to Rosenbluth.
AI is both a foundational technology and the ultimate replacement product, which we believe explains why it has attracted unprecedented levels of capital and why the investment opportunities are so compelling.
New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is already reshaping policy communication by reducing forward guidance, questioning the dot plot’s future and emphasizing real-time data, potentially increasing Treasury market volatility.
As the market continues to broaden in 2026, a balanced approach matters more than ever.
The ETF landscape includes plenty of exciting ETFs. Not all, however, can claim to combine high current income and outperformance. The ProShares Russell 2000 High Income ETF (ITWO) has done just that so far this year with its innovative approach to covered calls.
Private credit is having a moment in the headlines. Higher interest rates and a pullback in certain types of bank lending have pushed more financing activity into private markets. Investors may be left with a simple question: What exactly is private credit?
The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, the core PCE price index, climbed 3.4% year-over-year in May. This marks the highest level since October 2023 and marks a pickup from April's 3.3% reading. On a monthly basis, core prices rose 0.3%.
Inflation remains a hot topic, directly impacting everything from your grocery bill to interest rates. As of the latest data, two key inflation gauges — the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) — show that prices are still above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, with the core PCE at 3.4% and core CPI at 2.9%.
What if the debt crisis investors have feared is not still ahead, but already here, unfolding in plain sight? In his June insight, Richard Bernstein, Global Head of Macro & Customized Investing, makes the case that the market may already be penalizing U.S. fiscal excess, not through a dramatic collapse, but through a slow burn with real consequences for investors and the broader economy.
Official recession calls are the responsibility of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, which is understandably vague about the specific indicators on which they base their decisions. There is, however, a general belief that there are four big indicators that the committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process.
Personal income (excluding transfer receipts) was up 0.70% in May and was up 3.62% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, real personal income (excluding transfer receipts) was up 0.25% month-over-month and down 0.43% year-over-year.
With the release of May's report on personal incomes and outlays, we can now take a closer look at "real" disposable personal income per capita. To two decimal places, disposable income per capita was up up 0.68% month-over-month. But when adjusted for inflation, real disposable income per capita was up 0.23%.
New orders for manufactured durable goods sank 4.5% in May to $332.05B, slightly less than the projected 5.0% monthly decline.
Real gross domestic product (GDP) is comprised of four major subcomponents. In the Q1 2026 GDP third estimate, three of the four components made positive contributions.
U.S. economic growth rebounded at the beginning of 2026, according to the BEA’s latest estimate. Real GDP rose at a 2.1% annual rate in Q1, exceeding the 1.6% forecast and marking a sharp acceleration from the 0.5% final estimate seen in Q4 of last year.
According to Gleason, the freezing of Russian assets following the 2022 invasion of Ukraine accelerated the global push toward de-dollarization. Nations around the world took notice that access to the dollar-based financial system could be restricted, increasing the appeal of gold as a reserve asset that cannot be frozen or sanctioned by foreign governments.
Kevin Warsh’s first Federal Reserve meeting as chair mattered less for the rate decision than for what he revealed about how the Fed intends to operate. Warsh signaled a shift toward less guidance and more flexibility.
Municipal bonds often see a seasonal lift during the summer months. This pattern, known as summer technicals, stems from a straightforward supply and demand imbalance that tends to favor bond prices. Over the past ten years, the summer months (May through July) have generally been positive months for the Bloomberg Municipal Bond Index, with monthly returns averaging +0.83%, +0.43%, and +0.82%, respectively.
The international ETF landscape has become quite popular with investors over the last year. Investors flocked to ex-U.S. equity opportunities over the last 12 months, driven by high domestic valuations and persistent concentration risk. By contrast, emerging and international markets have both offered lower costs and healthy diversification.
In broad terms, there appears to be little headline risk facing advisors and income investors mulling municipal bonds. All 50 states carry investment-grade credit ratings, confirming that their credit quality remains solid.
It’s easy to understand why investors are skeptical about value stocks. After nearly two decades of chronic weakness, value’s strong rebound since early 2025 hasn’t offered enough proof that the turnaround has staying power.
Margin debt rose for a second straight month in May, reaching a new record high of $1.42 trillion. This marked an 8.5% increase from April and a 53.7% rise compared to the previous year.
New home sales fell more than expected in May while the median price rose for a second straight month.
US technology stocks rebounded, lifting key indexes, after the latest flareup of concerns about the scale of the artificial-intelligence-fueled rally wiped nearly $1.3 trillion from the market capitalization of Nasdaq 100 companies over the first two days of the week.
When investors feel like the stock market is toppy, as many do now, they often compare what they expect stocks and bonds to pay. The yield on stocks should offer a premium over bonds to compensate for higher risk, and it usually does.
THOR builds upon the success of the firm’s Thornburg Investment Income Builder Strategy, bringing that same income generation expertise into a flexible, actively managed ETF.
The most important development this week was not the Federal Reserve meeting itself, but the sharp and unexpected decline in oil prices. Just days ago, many market participants expected crude to remain elevated amid ongoing tensions in the Middle East. Instead, WTI crude briefly traded with a 73 handle, only modestly above its pre-conflict levels and far below the $90-$100 range that many feared.
There’s a new sheriff in town over at the Federal Reserve. He sounds a lot different than the old sheriff, but one would be wise to remember that Kevin Warsh is enforcing the same laws in the same town as Jerome Powell did.
Alan Greenspan, the titan of global central banking who led the Federal Reserve during decades of prosperity, has died at 100, just when elements of his free-market philosophy are experiencing a renaissance.
SpaceX is seeking to raise between $20 billion and $25 billion from a debut bond offering on Tuesday, after attracting about $30 billion of investor orders even before the sales process had formally begun, according to people with knowledge of the matter. At that size, the deal would rank among the biggest of the year, according to Bloomberg-compiled data.
While the market-cap methodology has been the guiding principle for equity index creators, it’s increasingly viewed as a structural error in the world of fixed income. Today, TMX VettaFi is helping to spearhead a growing movement of index innovators who are inclined to challenge the fixed income status quo.
U.S. equities posted a modest advance during the holiday-shortened trading week despite a Wednesday sell-off following a more hawkish than expected Federal Reserve meeting under its new chair, Kevin Warsh.
The rising debt burden of the U.S. government is becoming an increasingly serious economic concern. While it may not be an immediate crisis, it has the characteristics of a slow-moving domestic pandemic.
The corporate world is awash in capex. Leaders in the artificial intelligence (AI) arms race are pouring hundreds of billions of dollars into tech projects, and uncertainty surrounds their profitability. For now, the market rewards this use of cash, but it’s not without pitfalls. Share buybacks, for instance, are seen as a net loser, while the S&P 500® dividend yield has sunk toward all-time lows near 1%.
Here’s the setup most investors are underrating right now. Over the next two weeks, the tape will trade on plumbing rather than fundamentals. We just cleared the largest options expiration in history. Quarter-end pension selling comes next, and then July 1 reopens the passive-money firehose into a market that already routes forty cents of every S&P 500 dollar into ten stocks.
All of this is a warning to other developed markets with debt levels on the verge of exceeding their gross domestic product. Following the Truss chaos of four years ago, the market has decided to approach the UK through a lens of always assuming the worst, a default that continues to cost British taxpayers in the form of higher interest rates.
The fixed income environment continues to project uncertainty, as higher-for-longer interest rates persist amid sticky inflation. Investors may want to lean on the expertise of active managers when deciding between an active and indexed fund.
Important investment decisions should always be based on investment principles, not predictions. Principles form the foundation of a sensible long-term financial plan and are timeless rules.
Kevin Warsh, the new chairman of the FOMC, has long been critical of forward guidance, which is the Fed’s practice of explicitly signaling the future path of interest rates (e.g., “rates will stay low for an extended period” or publishing a projected path for policy rates). His concern is that the guidance could give the impression that policymakers might have a high degree of confidence about the future path of the economy and rates.
The US-Iran conflict – and its impact on oil prices – has dominated headlines over the past three months. Higher oil prices have pushed inflation to a three‑year high, reshaping the Federal Reserve’s rate outlook.
On Monday, President Donald Trump announced that the U.S. and Iran have reached a peace deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, the 21-mile chokepoint through which roughly 20% of the world’s oil supply normally flows.
The most consequential decisions a founder will face, equity gifting before valuations increase, trust structures timed ahead of a sale, QSBS qualification built while eligibility still exists, all must be decided before liquidity. Once the transaction closes, much of what was available earlier is simply gone.
Chris Galipeau discusses high-conviction insights that go beyond media headlines.
The announcement of an extended ceasefire in the Middle East is welcome news. The accord, which is scheduled to be signed late this week, reduces a source of geopolitical uncertainty that has hovered over the global economy. But significant risks remain.
Discover why DoubleLine's Jeffrey Gundlach is urging a structural defensive rotation into emerging markets and international assets.
Seven of the nine indexes on our world markets watch list posted year-to-date gains through June 22, 2026.
You know the term “Money Illusion”: mistakenly believing that today’s dollars have the same purchasing power as the dollars of ten or twenty years ago. As with any illusion, fake replaces real, image supplants fact, and fog obscures truth. We’re here to help you sort it out.
Alan Greenspan, the Federal Reserve chairman proclaimed a wizard for guiding a then-record US economic expansion, only to see his luster dimmed by the financial crisis that erupted less than two years after he stepped down, has died. He was 100.
Water utilities are selling bonds at a record pace to upgrade aging pipes and meet tougher regulations as they prepare for a potential pullback in federal funding.
SpaceX is selling investment-grade bonds for the first time in what’s expected to be the start of a massive borrowing spree to fund the company’s AI ambitions following its record $75 billion IPO.
Start with the disconnect itself. If you only looked at the Michigan headline, you’d assume the country was in a depression. However, when you look at what people are actually doing, the picture changes completely.
Investors have plenty of reasons to celebrate the covered call ETF boom. Covered call strategies have offered new ways to add income to portfolios. Challenges in fixed income were a catalyst for assets to flow into traditional covered call ETFs.
Emerging market (EM) fixed income's risk-adjusted profile has meaningfully improved. Sharpe ratios across EM credit and local rates have rebounded, with EM credit delivering one of the strongest risk-adjusted performances in fixed income over the past two years.
Roth conversions provide tax-free retirement income to hedge against future tax hikes, but they trigger an immediate tax bill. Fortunately, strategic planning can help minimize this upfront cost.
We all know that Congress is never going to allow Social Security not to be paid. This begs a number of questions. Will the shortfall be addressed by tax increases, benefit reductions, increasing the retirement age, changing the inflation measures, means testing or some combination of these and other solutions?
As the summer economic landscape takes shape, investors are navigating shifting monetary policy, stubborn inflation pressures, and unexpected market momentum. This week’s snapshot breaks down the most critical updates and data releases from the past week to give you a clear view of where the economy is heading.
Kevin Warsh came out as a hawk during his first press conference as Federal Reserve (Fed) chair. Franklin Templeton Fixed Income CIO Sonal Desai believes that he may be the most hawkish chair since Paul Volcker. Warsh stressed that the Fed can and will bring inflation back to 2%, and signaled his preference for a smaller balance sheet and no forward guidance—a welcome return to more orthodox monetary policy.
Reserve managers' decisions on EM debt go beyond investment potential—they must also weigh considerations such as governance, resources and liquidity.
The yield on the 10-year note finished June 18, 2026 at 4.46% while the 2-year note ended at 4.19%.
In an effort to streamline retirement income planning, MassMutual Strategic Distributors has launched a behavioral framework.
The Federal Reserve concluded its fourth meeting of the year by holding the federal funds rate (FFR) steady in the 3.50%-3.75% range.
Join Reckoner Capital Management for a product due diligence session covering the Reckoner Yield Enhanced AAA CLO ETF (RAAA) and its active approach to liquid credit.
Kevin Warsh’s remarks after the Federal Reserve’s first policy decision under his chairmanship will probably spark more volatility at the shorter end of the Treasury curve while calming price swings at the long end, according to Kay Haigh at Goldman Sachs Asset Management.
One of the key questions for investment professionals is whether oil prices will return to pre-war levels once the Middle East crisis is resolved. At the same time, many are asking why oil prices are not higher, especially since the latest geopolitical deal recently pushed crude to its lowest level since the initial attack.
Vanderbilt sold about $320 million of tax-exempt bonds through a Tennessee authority in 2024. Some of those securities that are due in 2035 traded Tuesday for a yield of about 3.06%, only slightly above the 2.83% benchmark for top-rated munis, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
The Federal Reserve held the policy rate steady at 3.50%–3.75% at its June meeting – an outcome that was never really in doubt. The more interesting signals came from the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), the policy statement, and Chair Kevin Warsh’s first press conference, which may prove to be his most substantial.
It’s a busy finish to the first half on the corporate event calendar. The bulls have the lead, but the bears have had their moments of glory so far this year. A handful of key AGMs, conferences, and earnings events will keep investors on their toes amid a colorful macro backdrop.
The questions in our inbox have gotten louder lately. Are we reliving 1999? Has the tech rally reached the dangerous ‘Euphoria’ bubble stage we first discussed in our 2026 Outlook? And is the recent surge in initial public offerings (IPOs)— led by SpaceX on Friday— diluting existing holders just as valuations were already drawing scrutiny?
In August 2025, the US President Donald Trump signed an executive order aimed at broadening the investments available in defined contribution plans (DC plans). On March 30, 2026, the US Department of Labor issued proposed guidance regarding a plan fiduciary’s selection of investments, including private market and other alternative investments, in 401(k) plans.
In this video, Chuck Carnevale explains why dividend growth investing may be one of the most predictable and dependable strategies for long-term investors, especially those seeking retirement income. While many investors view stocks as risky due to daily price volatility, Chuck argues that focusing solely on stock prices can be misleading. Instead, he emphasizes that the most reliable component of stock ownership is often the growing stream of dividends paid by high-quality companies.
Once again, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided to remain ‘on hold’, keeping the fed funds trading range at 3.50%-3.75%. This result was largely expected by the markets. Of course, one of the more notable aspects to this gathering was that it represented Kevin Warsh’s first official policy meeting as Fed Chairman.
Nominal retail sales were up 0.88% month-over-month and up 6.88% year-over-year in May. However, after adjusting for inflation, real retail sales were up 0.41% month-over-month and up 2.60% year-over-year.
I was asked by an advisory firm to speak to their clients at their recent client event. I was able to share the “Five Secrets of Human Behavior,” and all attendees received my similarly named book. In today’s column, I’ll outline these secrets and share why they matter from a leadership perspective.
The National Association of Realtors® (NAR) pending home sales index jumped 3.8% in May to 76.8, marking its fourth consecutive monthly gain and highest level in six months.
As new Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh leads his first policy meeting, falling oil prices are set to smooth the way for a rally in fixed income, according to MUFG’s chief of US macro strategy, George Goncalves.
Investors from Fidelity say new Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh stands to stoke bond-market volatility by offering his views on inflation.
JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s asset-management arm is urging investors to stick with stocks and other higher-risk assets in the second half of 2026, arguing that an AI investment boom and resilient consumers should keep the expansion intact despite persistent inflation and a Federal Reserve on hold.
This week J.P. Morgan Asset Management launched two actively managed municipal bond ETFs focused on California and New York debt, offering investors a way to earn tax-free income inside a more flexible and transparent fund structure.
The catalyst that turns a healthy pullback into something deeper won’t be a single oil-soaked CPI print. It’ll be the moment forward earnings expectations start to roll over while valuations sit at the high end of history. We aren’t there yet.
For insurers, fixed income remains the foundation of portfolio strategy. But while public markets have long provided unrivaled sourcing capacity and liquidity, the definition of “core” is widening.
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets this week in what will be Kevin Warsh’s first meeting as Chair of the Federal Reserve. President Trump has been vocal about wanting to see lower yields and general consensus is that Warsh was his pick due to Warsh’s general lean towards lower rates.
The slippery slope never fails. Go back to the 1979 Chrysler bailout and we can find the roots of the US government’s current predilection for getting involved in stocks and bonds.
On Monday, June 15, Guggenheim Investments debuted a pair of new fixed income ETFs. Each of these new funds offers an active take on the fixed income space. This may help investors looking to amplify portfolio yield.
Income
Inside the Fastest-Growing Corner of the Income ETF Market
If you’d rather get ahead of where income allocations are heading than read about them in next quarter’s flow report, this is the session.
T. Rowe Price Capital Appreciation income and dynamic allocation strategies
Join the experts at T. Rowe Price for a product due diligence session exploring how modern derivative-based strategies can be used to supplement the income sleeve of a portfolio and systematically gain market exposure.
The autocallable ETF journey from niche to noteworthy
Join the experts at GraniteShares to hear all about their autocallable ETF suite and find out how it could improve your income conversations with clients.
Why Munis Matter in 2026
Join the experts at SS&C ALPS Advisors and BBH for an educational webcast exploring municipal bonds and how inflation, geopolitics, and more are impacting the space.
The Quiet Boom in Autocallable ETFs
GraniteShares and VettaFi are coming together for a state-of-the-category briefing: the flow data behind the surge, the structural reasons advisors are making room in income sleeves, how the category has held up across different rate and volatility regimes, and the diligence questions worth asking before adding it to a model.
More Moving Parts Than Usual: A Mid-2026 Market Perspective
Halfway through 2026, this market perspective is harder to write with confidence than most. That’s not a phrase I use lightly. Over four decades of markets, there have been plenty of uncertain moments, but the number of significant, unresolved issues I’m watching right now is unusually high.
Global Bond Diversification: Higher Yields and New Opportunities for Alpha
In a world of high starting yields and rupturing economic alliances, investors who actively diversify across regions, sectors, and currencies can be better positioned to pursue durable returns.
Rosenbluth Discusses Thematics & RAFI Acquisition on Schwab Network
VettaFi currently has index products tied to ETFs issued by American Century, Victory Capital, and ALPS ETFs, but the addition of RAFI products issued by Invesco and PIMCO that are fundamentally weighted is really exciting, according to Rosenbluth.
AI Is a Secular Growth Unicorn
AI is both a foundational technology and the ultimate replacement product, which we believe explains why it has attracted unprecedented levels of capital and why the investment opportunities are so compelling.
A ‘Warsh’ Out at the Fed
New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is already reshaping policy communication by reducing forward guidance, questioning the dot plot’s future and emphasizing real-time data, potentially increasing Treasury market volatility.
Market Broadening, AI, and the Case for Diversification
As the market continues to broaden in 2026, a balanced approach matters more than ever.
How Russell 2000 High Income ETF ITWO Is Outperforming
The ETF landscape includes plenty of exciting ETFs. Not all, however, can claim to combine high current income and outperformance. The ProShares Russell 2000 High Income ETF (ITWO) has done just that so far this year with its innovative approach to covered calls.
Private Credit, Explained
Private credit is having a moment in the headlines. Higher interest rates and a pullback in certain types of bank lending have pushed more financing activity into private markets. Investors may be left with a simple question: What exactly is private credit?
Core PCE Inflation at 3.4% in May, Highest Level Since 2023
The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, the core PCE price index, climbed 3.4% year-over-year in May. This marks the highest level since October 2023 and marks a pickup from April's 3.3% reading. On a monthly basis, core prices rose 0.3%.
Two Measures of Inflation: May 2026
Inflation remains a hot topic, directly impacting everything from your grocery bill to interest rates. As of the latest data, two key inflation gauges — the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) — show that prices are still above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, with the core PCE at 3.4% and core CPI at 2.9%.
Could the U.S. Be the Frog in the Pot?
What if the debt crisis investors have feared is not still ahead, but already here, unfolding in plain sight? In his June insight, Richard Bernstein, Global Head of Macro & Customized Investing, makes the case that the market may already be penalizing U.S. fiscal excess, not through a dramatic collapse, but through a slow burn with real consequences for investors and the broader economy.
The Big Four Recession Indicators
Official recession calls are the responsibility of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, which is understandably vague about the specific indicators on which they base their decisions. There is, however, a general belief that there are four big indicators that the committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process.
The Big Four Recession Indicators: Real Personal Income
Personal income (excluding transfer receipts) was up 0.70% in May and was up 3.62% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, real personal income (excluding transfer receipts) was up 0.25% month-over-month and down 0.43% year-over-year.
Real Disposable Income Per Capita Up 0.2% in May
With the release of May's report on personal incomes and outlays, we can now take a closer look at "real" disposable personal income per capita. To two decimal places, disposable income per capita was up up 0.68% month-over-month. But when adjusted for inflation, real disposable income per capita was up 0.23%.
Durable Goods Orders Sink 4.5% in May, Less Than Expected
New orders for manufactured durable goods sank 4.5% in May to $332.05B, slightly less than the projected 5.0% monthly decline.
An Inside Look at the Q1 2026 GDP Third Estimate
Real gross domestic product (GDP) is comprised of four major subcomponents. In the Q1 2026 GDP third estimate, three of the four components made positive contributions.
Q1 GDP Third Estimate: Real GDP at 2.1%, Higher Than Expected
U.S. economic growth rebounded at the beginning of 2026, according to the BEA’s latest estimate. Real GDP rose at a 2.1% annual rate in Q1, exceeding the 1.6% forecast and marking a sharp acceleration from the 0.5% final estimate seen in Q4 of last year.
Gold, Fort Knox, and the Dollar’s Future
According to Gleason, the freezing of Russian assets following the 2022 invasion of Ukraine accelerated the global push toward de-dollarization. Nations around the world took notice that access to the dollar-based financial system could be restricted, increasing the appeal of gold as a reserve asset that cannot be frozen or sanctioned by foreign governments.
Will Greater Monetary Policy Uncertainty Lead to Tighter Financial Conditions?
Kevin Warsh’s first Federal Reserve meeting as chair mattered less for the rate decision than for what he revealed about how the Fed intends to operate. Warsh signaled a shift toward less guidance and more flexibility.
Summer Seasonal Technicals in Municipal Bonds: A Reliable Tailwind?
Municipal bonds often see a seasonal lift during the summer months. This pattern, known as summer technicals, stems from a straightforward supply and demand imbalance that tends to favor bond prices. Over the past ten years, the summer months (May through July) have generally been positive months for the Bloomberg Municipal Bond Index, with monthly returns averaging +0.83%, +0.43%, and +0.82%, respectively.
This Elevated International ETF Looks Compelling Right Now
The international ETF landscape has become quite popular with investors over the last year. Investors flocked to ex-U.S. equity opportunities over the last 12 months, driven by high domestic valuations and persistent concentration risk. By contrast, emerging and international markets have both offered lower costs and healthy diversification.
Can Active Management Make a Difference With Municipal Bonds?
In broad terms, there appears to be little headline risk facing advisors and income investors mulling municipal bonds. All 50 states carry investment-grade credit ratings, confirming that their credit quality remains solid.
Value Stocks: The Cash-Flow Case for a Continuing Comeback
It’s easy to understand why investors are skeptical about value stocks. After nearly two decades of chronic weakness, value’s strong rebound since early 2025 hasn’t offered enough proof that the turnaround has staying power.
Margin Debt Jumps 8.5% in May to New Record High
Margin debt rose for a second straight month in May, reaching a new record high of $1.42 trillion. This marked an 8.5% increase from April and a 53.7% rise compared to the previous year.
New Home Sales Drop 7% in May
New home sales fell more than expected in May while the median price rose for a second straight month.
Tech Stocks Lead Bounce After $1.3 Trillion Rout on Nasdaq 100
US technology stocks rebounded, lifting key indexes, after the latest flareup of concerns about the scale of the artificial-intelligence-fueled rally wiped nearly $1.3 trillion from the market capitalization of Nasdaq 100 companies over the first two days of the week.
Stocks Are Expensive. But Don’t Panic
When investors feel like the stock market is toppy, as many do now, they often compare what they expect stocks and bonds to pay. The yield on stocks should offer a premium over bonds to compensate for higher risk, and it usually does.
Thornburg Expands ETF Suite With New Premium Income Builder Fund
THOR builds upon the success of the firm’s Thornburg Investment Income Builder Strategy, bringing that same income generation expertise into a flexible, actively managed ETF.
Disinflation Trend Keeps Rate Hikes Unlikely
The most important development this week was not the Federal Reserve meeting itself, but the sharp and unexpected decline in oil prices. Just days ago, many market participants expected crude to remain elevated amid ongoing tensions in the Middle East. Instead, WTI crude briefly traded with a 73 handle, only modestly above its pre-conflict levels and far below the $90-$100 range that many feared.
There's a New Sheriff in Town! Will He Act Differently Than the Old Sheriff?
There’s a new sheriff in town over at the Federal Reserve. He sounds a lot different than the old sheriff, but one would be wise to remember that Kevin Warsh is enforcing the same laws in the same town as Jerome Powell did.
Greenspan’s Stumbles Hold Lessons for Warsh’s Fed
Alan Greenspan, the titan of global central banking who led the Federal Reserve during decades of prosperity, has died at 100, just when elements of his free-market philosophy are experiencing a renaissance.
SpaceX’s Quickfire Investment-Grade Rating Brings Out Skeptics
SpaceX is seeking to raise between $20 billion and $25 billion from a debut bond offering on Tuesday, after attracting about $30 billion of investor orders even before the sales process had formally begun, according to people with knowledge of the matter. At that size, the deal would rank among the biggest of the year, according to Bloomberg-compiled data.
Benchmarks Are Broken: Why Antiquated Methodologies Fail Fixed Income
While the market-cap methodology has been the guiding principle for equity index creators, it’s increasingly viewed as a structural error in the world of fixed income. Today, TMX VettaFi is helping to spearhead a growing movement of index innovators who are inclined to challenge the fixed income status quo.
Fed Signals Keep Rate Risks in Focus
U.S. equities posted a modest advance during the holiday-shortened trading week despite a Wednesday sell-off following a more hawkish than expected Federal Reserve meeting under its new chair, Kevin Warsh.
U.S. Debt, Interest Rates, and the Opportunity in High-Quality Bonds
The rising debt burden of the U.S. government is becoming an increasingly serious economic concern. While it may not be an immediate crisis, it has the characteristics of a slow-moving domestic pandemic.
Beyond AI: Where Investors Can Still Find Dividend Growth in 2026
The corporate world is awash in capex. Leaders in the artificial intelligence (AI) arms race are pouring hundreds of billions of dollars into tech projects, and uncertainty surrounds their profitability. For now, the market rewards this use of cash, but it’s not without pitfalls. Share buybacks, for instance, are seen as a net loser, while the S&P 500® dividend yield has sunk toward all-time lows near 1%.
When Flows Meet a Hawkish Fed
Here’s the setup most investors are underrating right now. Over the next two weeks, the tape will trade on plumbing rather than fundamentals. We just cleared the largest options expiration in history. Quarter-end pension selling comes next, and then July 1 reopens the passive-money firehose into a market that already routes forty cents of every S&P 500 dollar into ten stocks.
The Bond Market’s Skepticism of Burnham Is a Warning
All of this is a warning to other developed markets with debt levels on the verge of exceeding their gross domestic product. Following the Truss chaos of four years ago, the market has decided to approach the UK through a lens of always assuming the worst, a default that continues to cost British taxpayers in the form of higher interest rates.
Unlocking Active Alpha in Fixed Income with Fidelity
The fixed income environment continues to project uncertainty, as higher-for-longer interest rates persist amid sticky inflation. Investors may want to lean on the expertise of active managers when deciding between an active and indexed fund.
40 Years of Forecasts: Focus on Principles Over Predictions
Important investment decisions should always be based on investment principles, not predictions. Principles form the foundation of a sensible long-term financial plan and are timeless rules.
Kevin Warsh Could Shake Up the Fed
Kevin Warsh, the new chairman of the FOMC, has long been critical of forward guidance, which is the Fed’s practice of explicitly signaling the future path of interest rates (e.g., “rates will stay low for an extended period” or publishing a projected path for policy rates). His concern is that the guidance could give the impression that policymakers might have a high degree of confidence about the future path of the economy and rates.
How a US-Iran Deal Could Influence the Economy and Financial Markets
The US-Iran conflict – and its impact on oil prices – has dominated headlines over the past three months. Higher oil prices have pushed inflation to a three‑year high, reshaping the Federal Reserve’s rate outlook.
A Quarter Century of Data Says the Airline Opportunity Could Just Be Getting Started
On Monday, President Donald Trump announced that the U.S. and Iran have reached a peace deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, the 21-mile chokepoint through which roughly 20% of the world’s oil supply normally flows.
When Should a Founder Hire a Wealth Advisor? A Guide for Entrepreneurs
The most consequential decisions a founder will face, equity gifting before valuations increase, trust structures timed ahead of a sale, QSBS qualification built while eligibility still exists, all must be decided before liquidity. Once the transaction closes, much of what was available earlier is simply gone.
Meet the New Boss. Different from the Old Boss.
Chris Galipeau discusses high-conviction insights that go beyond media headlines.
Truce In The Middle East
The announcement of an extended ceasefire in the Middle East is welcome news. The accord, which is scheduled to be signed late this week, reduces a source of geopolitical uncertainty that has hovered over the global economy. But significant risks remain.
Why the Bond King is Betting on Hikes, Hype & Global Rotation
Discover why DoubleLine's Jeffrey Gundlach is urging a structural defensive rotation into emerging markets and international assets.
World Markets Watchlist: June 22, 2026
Seven of the nine indexes on our world markets watch list posted year-to-date gains through June 22, 2026.
Money Illusion — A User’s Manual
You know the term “Money Illusion”: mistakenly believing that today’s dollars have the same purchasing power as the dollars of ten or twenty years ago. As with any illusion, fake replaces real, image supplants fact, and fog obscures truth. We’re here to help you sort it out.
Alan Greenspan, Who Led Fed During Boom Before 2008 Bust, Dies at 100
Alan Greenspan, the Federal Reserve chairman proclaimed a wizard for guiding a then-record US economic expansion, only to see his luster dimmed by the financial crisis that erupted less than two years after he stepped down, has died. He was 100.
Record $21 Billion Water Bonds Sold With Trump Budget Cuts Ahead
Water utilities are selling bonds at a record pace to upgrade aging pipes and meet tougher regulations as they prepare for a potential pullback in federal funding.
SpaceX Bankers Kick Off Marketing for Debut High-Grade Bond Sale
SpaceX is selling investment-grade bonds for the first time in what’s expected to be the start of a massive borrowing spree to fund the company’s AI ambitions following its record $75 billion IPO.
The Consumer Sentiment Disconnect From Economic Reality
Start with the disconnect itself. If you only looked at the Michigan headline, you’d assume the country was in a depression. However, when you look at what people are actually doing, the picture changes completely.
Covered Call ETFs Have Boomed – But Can They Be More?
Investors have plenty of reasons to celebrate the covered call ETF boom. Covered call strategies have offered new ways to add income to portfolios. Challenges in fixed income were a catalyst for assets to flow into traditional covered call ETFs.
Sharpe Is Back in Emerging Markets
Emerging market (EM) fixed income's risk-adjusted profile has meaningfully improved. Sharpe ratios across EM credit and local rates have rebounded, with EM credit delivering one of the strongest risk-adjusted performances in fixed income over the past two years.
Three Ways to Offset Income From a Roth Conversion
Roth conversions provide tax-free retirement income to hedge against future tax hikes, but they trigger an immediate tax bill. Fortunately, strategic planning can help minimize this upfront cost.
Social Insecurity, Surprise Edition
We all know that Congress is never going to allow Social Security not to be paid. This begs a number of questions. Will the shortfall be addressed by tax increases, benefit reductions, increasing the retirement age, changing the inflation measures, means testing or some combination of these and other solutions?
Weekly Economic Snapshot: A Hawkish Hold in a High-Stakes Market
As the summer economic landscape takes shape, investors are navigating shifting monetary policy, stubborn inflation pressures, and unexpected market momentum. This week’s snapshot breaks down the most critical updates and data releases from the past week to give you a clear view of where the economy is heading.
The Warsh Fed—Return to Orthodoxy
Kevin Warsh came out as a hawk during his first press conference as Federal Reserve (Fed) chair. Franklin Templeton Fixed Income CIO Sonal Desai believes that he may be the most hawkish chair since Paul Volcker. Warsh stressed that the Fed can and will bring inflation back to 2%, and signaled his preference for a smaller balance sheet and no forward guidance—a welcome return to more orthodox monetary policy.
EM Debt—What Reserve Managers Should Keep in Mind
Reserve managers' decisions on EM debt go beyond investment potential—they must also weigh considerations such as governance, resources and liquidity.
Treasury Yields Snapshot: June 18, 2026
The yield on the 10-year note finished June 18, 2026 at 4.46% while the 2-year note ended at 4.19%.
MassMutual on Strategies for Maximizing Retirement Income
In an effort to streamline retirement income planning, MassMutual Strategic Distributors has launched a behavioral framework.
Fed’s Interest Rate Decision: June 17, 2026
The Federal Reserve concluded its fourth meeting of the year by holding the federal funds rate (FFR) steady in the 3.50%-3.75% range.
CLOse encounters of the liquid credit kind
Join Reckoner Capital Management for a product due diligence session covering the Reckoner Yield Enhanced AAA CLO ETF (RAAA) and its active approach to liquid credit.
Goldman Sees More Two-Year Volatility, Calmer Long End on Warsh
Kevin Warsh’s remarks after the Federal Reserve’s first policy decision under his chairmanship will probably spark more volatility at the shorter end of the Treasury curve while calming price swings at the long end, according to Kay Haigh at Goldman Sachs Asset Management.
Low Chinese Demand for Foreign Oil Keeping Prices Low
One of the key questions for investment professionals is whether oil prices will return to pre-war levels once the Middle East crisis is resolved. At the same time, many are asking why oil prices are not higher, especially since the latest geopolitical deal recently pushed crude to its lowest level since the initial attack.
Vanderbilt University to Sell Up to $430 Million of Muni Bonds
Vanderbilt sold about $320 million of tax-exempt bonds through a Tennessee authority in 2024. Some of those securities that are due in 2035 traded Tuesday for a yield of about 3.06%, only slightly above the 2.83% benchmark for top-rated munis, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Hawkish-Leaning Committee, Reform-Minded Chair: Warsh’s First Fed Meeting
The Federal Reserve held the policy rate steady at 3.50%–3.75% at its June meeting – an outcome that was never really in doubt. The more interesting signals came from the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), the policy statement, and Chair Kevin Warsh’s first press conference, which may prove to be his most substantial.
SpaceX Stole the Show, but These Market-Moving Events Could Drive Stocks Next
It’s a busy finish to the first half on the corporate event calendar. The bulls have the lead, but the bears have had their moments of glory so far this year. A handful of key AGMs, conferences, and earnings events will keep investors on their toes amid a colorful macro backdrop.
Why We’re Staying at the Tech Party…and What Would Make Us Leave
The questions in our inbox have gotten louder lately. Are we reliving 1999? Has the tech rally reached the dangerous ‘Euphoria’ bubble stage we first discussed in our 2026 Outlook? And is the recent surge in initial public offerings (IPOs)— led by SpaceX on Friday— diluting existing holders just as valuations were already drawing scrutiny?
Private Markets in Retirement Plans: Unlocking Opportunities
In August 2025, the US President Donald Trump signed an executive order aimed at broadening the investments available in defined contribution plans (DC plans). On March 30, 2026, the US Department of Labor issued proposed guidance regarding a plan fiduciary’s selection of investments, including private market and other alternative investments, in 401(k) plans.
The Closest Thing to Guaranteed investing Success
In this video, Chuck Carnevale explains why dividend growth investing may be one of the most predictable and dependable strategies for long-term investors, especially those seeking retirement income. While many investors view stocks as risky due to daily price volatility, Chuck argues that focusing solely on stock prices can be misleading. Instead, he emphasizes that the most reliable component of stock ownership is often the growing stream of dividends paid by high-quality companies.
Fed Watch: The Changing of the Guard Finally Arrives
Once again, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided to remain ‘on hold’, keeping the fed funds trading range at 3.50%-3.75%. This result was largely expected by the markets. Of course, one of the more notable aspects to this gathering was that it represented Kevin Warsh’s first official policy meeting as Fed Chairman.
The Big Four Recession Indicators: Real Retail Sales
Nominal retail sales were up 0.88% month-over-month and up 6.88% year-over-year in May. However, after adjusting for inflation, real retail sales were up 0.41% month-over-month and up 2.60% year-over-year.
Unlock the Secrets of Human Behavior
I was asked by an advisory firm to speak to their clients at their recent client event. I was able to share the “Five Secrets of Human Behavior,” and all attendees received my similarly named book. In today’s column, I’ll outline these secrets and share why they matter from a leadership perspective.
Pending Home Sales Jump to 6-Month High
The National Association of Realtors® (NAR) pending home sales index jumped 3.8% in May to 76.8, marking its fourth consecutive monthly gain and highest level in six months.
‘Summer of the Bond Market’ Is Teed Up for Warsh, Goncalves Says
As new Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh leads his first policy meeting, falling oil prices are set to smooth the way for a rally in fixed income, according to MUFG’s chief of US macro strategy, George Goncalves.
Warsh Has Potential to Spur Market Volatility, Fidelity Says
Investors from Fidelity say new Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh stands to stoke bond-market volatility by offering his views on inflation.
JPMorgan’s David Kelly Says AI Boom Will Refuel Stock Rally
JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s asset-management arm is urging investors to stick with stocks and other higher-risk assets in the second half of 2026, arguing that an AI investment boom and resilient consumers should keep the expansion intact despite persistent inflation and a Federal Reserve on hold.
JPMorgan Converts $950M to Active NY, CA Muni ETFs
This week J.P. Morgan Asset Management launched two actively managed municipal bond ETFs focused on California and New York debt, offering investors a way to earn tax-free income inside a more flexible and transparent fund structure.
Bull Market Pullback: Why The 4.5% Dip Held The 50-DMA
The catalyst that turns a healthy pullback into something deeper won’t be a single oil-soaked CPI print. It’ll be the moment forward earnings expectations start to roll over while valuations sit at the high end of history. We aren’t there yet.
How Fixed-Income Investing Is Evolving for European Insurers
For insurers, fixed income remains the foundation of portfolio strategy. But while public markets have long provided unrivaled sourcing capacity and liquidity, the definition of “core” is widening.
Welcome, Chair Warsh
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets this week in what will be Kevin Warsh’s first meeting as Chair of the Federal Reserve. President Trump has been vocal about wanting to see lower yields and general consensus is that Warsh was his pick due to Warsh’s general lean towards lower rates.
The Rise of the American State-Owned Enterprise
The slippery slope never fails. Go back to the 1979 Chrysler bailout and we can find the roots of the US government’s current predilection for getting involved in stocks and bonds.
Guggenheim Returns to ETF Market With Two New Income Funds
On Monday, June 15, Guggenheim Investments debuted a pair of new fixed income ETFs. Each of these new funds offers an active take on the fixed income space. This may help investors looking to amplify portfolio yield.