The Tipping Point for Central Banks
Why Gold-Mining Stocks Could Regain Some Luster
Here, Franklin Equity Group's Steve Land digs deeper into industry fundamentals that he thinks make for an attractive longer-term investment case for gold or gold stocks
S&P 500 Snapshot: Closes Higher Than Thursday, Daily Gain of 0.06%
The S&P opened Friday below its Thursday close and oscillated around the same point until about 2pm. The index closed the day with a gain of 0.06% and a week-over-week gain of 0.08%. The index is up 11.76% YTD.
A Statistical Take On The Fourth Quarter
Technicians are fond of saying that the most bullish thing a market can do is to make a new high. This simple study takes a more nuanced view, finding that the sustainability of a new high is related to its underlying technical, monetary, and economic underpinnings. On that score, this market—as overvalued as it may be—is currently “thrice-blessed,” and we expect even higher highs in the fourth quarter.
Median Household Incomes by Age Bracket: 1967-2016
Earlier this week, we updated our commentary on household income distribution to include the Census Bureau's release of the 2016 annual data. Our focus was on arithmetic mean (average) household incomes by quintile (and the top 5%) over the 50-year history of this data series. The analysis offered some fascinating insights into U.S. household incomes. But the classification misses the implications of age for income. Households are by no means locked into the same quintile over time.
Market Lessons from the Gridiron
Rick Rieder and Russ Brownback, from the BlackRock Fundamental Fixed Income Team, look to the investment lessons that can be derived from Super Bowl 51 odds making, and particularly that when judged appropriately, prices can contain more valuable information than does “the news.”
What Does QE in Reverse Mean for the US Economy?
The long-anticipated unwinding of quantitative easing (QE) in the US is set to begin, just as the Fed’s leadership faces a wave of turnover. We think a strong foundation should keep steady US economic growth on track.
Global Economic Perspective: September
The issues that have dominated news cycles in recent weeks should not obscure the robust underlying fundamentals of the US economy, in our view. Though some short-term weather-related disruption is possible, the economy seems to be maintaining its path of moderately strong growth, aided by healthy contributions from consumer spending and business investment.
The Impossible Math of the Federal Reserve
The Federal Reserve officially signaled the beginning of its balance sheet run-off. At this point, that’s old news. But, today the Fed released the Z.1 Flow of Funds, which adds to the intrigue of the balance sheet run-off. Why?
ECRI Weekly Leading Index: YoY Lowest in 12 Months
Today's release of the publicly available data from ECRI puts its Weekly Leading Index (WLI) at 143.4, unchanged from the previous week. Year-over-year the four-week moving average of the indicator is now at 2.83%, down from 3.09% last week and its eleventh consecutive week of declines. The WLI Growth indicator is now at 0.0, also down from the previous week, its lowest since March of 2016.
RecessionAlert Weekly Leading Index Update
RecessionAlert has launched an alternative to ECRI's Weekly Leading Index Growth indicator (WLIg). The Weekly Leading Economic Index (WLEI) uses fifty different time series from these categories: Corporate Bond Composite, Treasury Bond Composite, Stock Market Composite, Labor Market Composite, Credit Market Composite. The latest index reading came in at 15.4, down from 15.7 the previous week.
A Case for Multi-Asset Investing: The Low-Return Imperative
The data suggests that future market returns are likely to be lower than in the past. Can a multi-asset investing approach help make up the difference?
Global Vision Enhances Equity Insight
Investors all over the world often prefer to stay in their home markets. But at what cost? Going global can open up a world of choice to help improve a portfolio’s equity risk and return profile.
The Fed’s Balancing (Sheet) Act
The Federal Reserve’s September policy meeting played out largely as expected, as US monetary policymakers left the central bank’s benchmark short-term interest rate unchanged. The Fed did clarify when it would begin to unwind its hefty balance sheet, and updated its economic forecasts and interest-rate projections.
High Yield Market Update
The U.S. high yield bond market has grown substantially to around $1.3 trillion today. At the same time, the global high yield market has become more geographically diverse. North America’s share of the market has fallen from 87.1% in 2005 to 62.6% in 2016.