Search Results
Results 4,751–4,800
of 6,535 found.
If You’re Not Following this Energy Trend, You’re Being Left in the Dust
This week our office was visited by my friend, investor and author Gianni Kovacevic, who is at the halfway point of a cross-country book tour to promote the latest edition of “My Electrician Drives a Porsche?” As part of the tour, he’s driving a Tesla Model S from Boston to Palo Alto, California—Tesla’s hometown—to demonstrate the potential of green energy and spread his message that “the future is now.”
State of the States
by Anthony Valeri of LPL Financial,
With the deadline approaching, taxes are front and center in the minds of investors. No one likes paying taxes, but they are of utmost importance to the financial well-being of state and local governments. Higher tax revenue has been a key driver of improving (in most cases) state and local government credit quality metrics by firming the financial standing of municipal government debt issuers. However, growth in state and local government tax revenue may be poised to slow, lessening the positive impact behind municipal credit quality.
Alpha or Assets? — Factor Alpha vs. Smart Beta
More and more investors are buying “factor”-based strategies, which invest using measures like valuation and low volatility. However, the most popular strategies are applying factors the wrong way. We believe that strategies should be built for alpha, not scale—but the asset management industry has gone in the opposite direction.
Equity Valuations, Recessions and Stock Market Declines
by Doug Short,
Note: In response to an email, I've updated the data in this article through the March month-end numbers and at the launch of the Q1 2016 earnings season.
Last year I had a fascinating conversation with Neile Wolfe, of Wells Fargo Advisors, LLC. Based on the underlying data in the adjacent chart, Neile made some cogent observations about the historical relationships between equity valuations, recessions and market prices:
Last year I had a fascinating conversation with Neile Wolfe, of Wells Fargo Advisors, LLC. Based on the underlying data in the adjacent chart, Neile made some cogent observations about the historical relationships between equity valuations, recessions and market prices:
Do International Actively Managed Small-Cap Funds Add Value?
by Larry Swedroe,
One frequently hears active managers claim that they avoid the large-cap U.S. market because it’s too hard to find undervalued stocks. By that reasoning, actively managed small-cap international funds should be alpha-generating powerhouses. Let’s see if that’s true.
Technically Speaking: Bull Versus Bear Case
As the trumpets sound to signal the start of earnings season, the battle between fundamentals and “hope” begins. Despite weakening earnings, which on an as reported basis are far worse than the rather manipulated “operating” levels currently suggest, the bulls have remained steadfast in their belief that prices are on a one-way trip higher.
Surging Mining Stocks Point to Big Move Ahead in Gold and Silver
Spring has sprung for precious metals mining stocks.The HUI gold stocks index surged 6.2% on Monday to close at a 14-month high. The HUI chart shows a strong base was built from last summer through this January, and from that base a new bull market has begun.
Preparing for Rising Medical Costs in Retirement - 2016
The Affordable Care Act (commonly known as the “ACA” or “Obamacare”) has had a significant effect on retiree health care costs and retirement planning, and those effects are likely only to increase in the years ahead. People nearing or in retirement need to understand the extent to which their medical expenses are likely to increase, and steps they can take now to help ensure they will be able to afford medical care after they retire.
ECRI Weekly Leading Index: WLI Up 0.2 From Last Week, Still Positive
The WLI annualized growth indicator (WLIg) is at 1.6, an increase of 0.9 from the previous week, and well off its interim low of -4.7 last February. The YoY is now at 0.42%, an increase of 0.27, and in positive territory for the second consecutive week.
90% Psychological, 10% Logical
So here we are with very modest global economic growth, seemingly excessive gains in stocks over the past several years, potentially flawed monetary policies around the world, and mediocre readings on the sentiment indicators I follow. Although this may sound like a prescription for flat—or possibly even falling—stock prices going forward, I continue to be the “nervous bull” that I’ve been for quite a few years.
Recession Probability Models - April 2016
by Ted Kavadas of RevSD,
There are a variety of economic models that are supposed to predict the probabilities of recession. While I don’t agree with the methodologies employed or probabilities of impending economic weakness as depicted by the following two models, I think the results of these models should be monitored.
India’s Central Bank cuts key policy rate by 25bps
India’s central bank, The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) lowered its repurchase rate by 25 basis points to 6.5% from 6.75% on expected grounds. The RBI also narrowed the policy corridor (repo and reverse repo spread) to 50bps from 100bps. In addition, the central bank also announced changes to the liquidity framework while maintaining its forecast for Gross Value Added (GVA) growth and retail inflation unchanged at 7.6% & 5% respectively for FY2016-17.
A Value Fund with a Long-Term Success Record
by Robert Huebscher,
Tim Hartch has been a co-manager of the BBH Global Core Select fund (BBGRX) since inception and has also co-managed the BBH Core Select fund (BBTEX) since October 2005. I spoke with Tim about his management philosophy and how he has been able to outperform his benchmark over a long time period.
On My Radar: Fed Stuck Between Three Rocks and a Hard Place
“Now these monetary institutions are expected to continue producing miracles. But their ability to repeatedly pull new rabbits out of their policy hats has been stretched to an increasingly unsustainable degree.” -Mohamed A. El-Erian, The Only Game in Town
Inside Information - March 2016
by Bob Veres,
This is a complimentary issue of Bob Veres' Inside Information. The lead article defines the robo-advisor challenge as nothing more than the next evolution of professional software—I call it Software 2.0—with intelligent built-in capabilities. The article looks at how the venture capitalists who funded the robo-platforms identified three significant weaknesses in the advisor profession they hoped to disrupt. As it turns out, instead of disrupting us, they did us all a big favor. By exposing certain weaknesses, the venture capitalists showed us several ways to increase your top-line revenues without any additional labor from you or your staff.
Gold Had Its Best Quarter in a Generation. So Where Are the Investors?
he last time gold had a quarter this strong, Ronald Reagan was a year into his second term as president, the Soviet Union was taking its final gasp and the U.S. was still reeling from the Challenger explosion. Year-to-date, the yellow metal has risen 16.5 percent, its best three-month performance since 1986, mostly on fears of negative interest rates and other global central bank policies.
Bold, Confident and WRONG: Why You Should Ignore Expert Forecasts
If you read the paper, watch the news, and listen to investment experts you are doing it all wrong. There are no market wizards; the emperors have no clothes; most people are ‘swimming naked’. The following paragraphs offer abundant and incontrovertible evidence condemning expert judgment for the great sham it really is. We also offer some practical ways to cope with the terrifying reality that no one is in control.
How I found Gold in White Water Rapids
The question of Gold as an investment intrigues me! Nobody it seems is ambivalent to the shiny yellow metal. Either you Hate it! In which case you may be in the camp of a barbarous relic. Or you Love it? In which case you may be a crackpot doomsayer preparing for War against the government. Is there not a middle road when it comes to Gold? Would a smart investor not recognize that in all things investing there is a season? And isn’t it possible that Golds season may just have arrived?
Wrestling with Negative Interest Rates
by Byron Wien of Blackstone,
I have long thought that negative interest rates didn’t make sense, but monetarists argue that they are just low interest rates carried further. The theory is that if consumers and corporations have to pay a price to store their cash at banks, they will go out and spend and invest, but it is not clear that is what happens when deposit rates fall below zero. What is clear is that the outcomes vary by the size and importance of the central bank involved. In any case, the effects seem to be more temporary than long-lasting. Perhaps more worthy of examination are the reasons behind the negative rates and what these conditions mean for the long-term economic performance of countries and regions and returns in their financial markets.
Emerging Markets Update: Is Now the Time for Emerging Markets?
by Roger Edgley, Ajay Krishnan, Andrey Kutuzov, Scott Thomas, Matthew Dreith of Wasatch Global Investors,
Why emerging-market stocks have generally performed poorly over the last five years—and why selectively chosen emerging-market businesses are now attractive in our view. We outline catalysts that could lead to sustainable advances in certain EM stocks and discuss the “new reality” that the opportunity set for truly great emerging-market investments has narrowed. This opportunity set includes high-quality growth companies in Internet technologies, health care, business-process innovation, and products and services for the expanding middle-class consumer segments in emerging markets.
A Flat Market Year-To-Date
by Jack Rivkin of Altegris Advisors,
The noise of the first three months of the year was hard to avoid, and the liquidity trap led to some investors selling at the wrong time. Jack Rivkin, CEO of Altegris Advisors, points out that had investors avoided the noise, they’d see that the equity market has actually been flat YTD.
Dividends’ True Contribution to Total Return May Surprise You
by Chuck Carnevale of F.A.S.T. Graphs,
In recent years, dividends’ contribution to total return has been one of the most heavily-studied topics in the investment world. Several conclusions about the contribution that dividends make to total return have been claimed. However, these conclusions vary greatly. I have seen studies claiming that 90% of returns are attributed to dividends, several claiming 50% or more, and others arguing for a 30% contribution. Ironically, they all seem to be correct depending on the data-sets and/or timeframes being measured.
The Détente Agreement
“Corporate sector metrics have been disappointing of late… Companies are scaling back expenditures of all kinds (capital expenditures, hiring, and inventory-builds, for example), as their top-line revenues and earnings decelerate. Though first-quarter numbers may come in better than beaten-down forecasts, firms are finding that top line revenues are still hard to grow significantly.” Rick Rieder, Head of Global Fixed Income, BlackRock
Can Manufacturing Jobs Come Back?
by Scott Brown of Raymond James,
The leading presidential candidates of both parties have pledged to bring manufacturing jobs back to America. It’s unclear exactly how this will be done or even whether it can be done. However, the sentiment has hit a nerve with many voters. The more important problem will be to figure out where the economy is headed over the long term and how to prepare the workforce for the future.
Here’s the Cost of Global Terrorism
We were saddened this week to hear that at least 30 people were killed and many dozens more injured in ISIS-related suicide bombings that targeted an airport and train station in Brussels. The Belgian and European Union capital joins Paris, San Bernardino, Ankara, Jakarta and too many other cities in the past year alone that have come under fire from the Islamic terrorist group.
What Tools Does the Fed Have Left? Part 2: Targeting Longer-Term Interest Rates
by Ben Bernanke of Brookings Institute,
Although the U.S. economy appears to be on a positive trajectory, history suggests that at some time in the next few years we may again face a slowdown, with a weakening job market and possibly declining inflation. Given that the historically low level of short-term interest rates is likely to limit the scope for conventional rate cuts, how would the Federal Reserve respond?
The Velocity of Money: Safe at Any Speed?
Recently, concerns about the velocity of money have resurfaced. Several readers have asked whether declining money velocity presages a crash, a recession, or something equally bad. It’s a fair question. As with many such issues, though, we’ve been down this road before several years ago. Low money velocity didn’t mean problems then, and it shouldn’t mean problems now.
ECRI Weekly Leading Index: WLI Up 0.6 From Last Week, Fifth Week of Increases
The WLI annualized growth indicator (WLIg) is at -0.7, an increase of 1.3 from the previous week, and well off its interim low of -4.7 last February. The YoY is now at -0.18%, an increase of 0.54, but still in negative territory.
The Value of Value
by Brandon Thomas of Envestnet,
Value investing as an investment strategy has existed for at least 100 years, and likely for centuries (if not millennia). At its core, value investing is a fairly straightforward strategy: Investors seek to buy an asset when its price is perceived to be “cheap” relative to measures of fundamental value.
Some Surprising Advantages to Owning Gold and Silver Coins
by Everett Millman of Gainsville Coins,
Precious metals are traditionally seen as a hedge against inflation. Many investors include bullion in their portfolio as a way to prepare for tough economic times. Beyond these tried-and-true strategies, this expert perspective explores the potential advantages offered by legal tender gold and silver coins in terms of investing and avoiding transfer fees when banking abroad. These considerations are especially pertinent amid the global economic slowdown, political turmoil, and softening foreign bank stocks due to negative interest-rate policies (NIRP).
The Russian Withdrawal
On March 14, Russian President Vladimir Putin surprised the world with an announcement of the withdrawal of Russian troops from Syria. The move was unexpected and has raised questions as to whether Russia will really pull its forces out of Syria, and if so, why? In this report, we will examine Russia's initial decision to place forces in Syria and discuss if Putin really means to remove his troops from the country. We will examine what might have prompted the decision to announce the withdrawal and, as always, discuss the market implications of the decision.
Schwab Market Perspective: Sigh of Relief
Beaten down areas of the market have staged a nice turnaround. Stocks have moved well off the lows and the S&P 500 is now within shouting distance of the flatline for the year. Areas of the market that were some of the hardest hit—such as materials, energy and financials—have posted some of the best gains over the past month.
Global Stakes for the Brexit Vote
by John Browne of Euro Pacific Capital,
On February 20th, UK Prime Minister David Cameron announced that the 'in/out EU referendum' he had promised in the campaign for the last parliamentary vote would finally take place on June 23rd. The outcome of the long-promised vote could have a tremendous impact not merely on the future of Mr. Cameron and his coalition but on the economic future of Great Britain and much of the world, including the European Union (EU) and the United States. It's arguable that the referendum will be the most significant vote the world will see between now and the U.S. presidential ballots in November.
On The Statistical Significance of the Knowledge Factor
by Bryce Coward of GaveKal Capital,
Over the last week or so we’ve been highlighting how factor investing is not as cut and dry as advertised. The traditional simple factors (value, size, momentum, quality, low volatility) sometimes work and sometimes don’t so investors are left to make educated guesses about which factors will work in any given year.
It’s Time to Rethink Your Social Security Claiming Strategy
by Robert Dietz of AllianceBernstein,
Retirees in the US can control when they begin to receive Social Security benefits, but a recent rule change has narrowed the options for married couples. Now is the time to reevaluate your plan. You may be among the lucky few who can still claim benefits under the old rules, if you act before April 29.
Turn, Turn, Turn
by Scott Brown of Raymond James,
The story goes that tighter Fed policy has strengthened the dollar, the stronger dollar has led to lower prices of oil and other commodities, and the drop in oil prices contributed to stock market weakness in January and February. However, stock market movements cannot be attributed wholly to the price of oil, the price of oil cannot by tied completely to the dollar, and the dollar’s strength has not been due entirely to monetary policy. Examining these links more closely may provide some insight into where we are heading in the months ahead.
The Fear Factor in Global Markets
by Kenneth Rogoff of Project Syndicate,
The phenomenal market volatility of the past year owes much to genuine risks and uncertainties about factors such as Chinese growth, European banks, and the oil glut. Yet, from a macroeconomic perspective, the fundamentals are just not that bad.
High Yield Improvement Trend Appears Entrenched
by Matthew Past of BTS Asset Management,
The most important indicators for high-yield bond prices are the sector’s own price trends. At present, technical indicators strongly suggest a continuation of the high-yield bond strength that began in mid-February as the flight-to-quality urge faded. In addition to technical price trends, several backdrop indicators also suggest a favorable outlook for high-yield bonds, including GDP, oil, and the dollar.
Results 4,751–4,800
of 6,535 found.
