Everyone seems to be a commodities bull lately. PIMCO is no exception: Our latest Asset Allocation Outlook suggests an overweight to real assets, including commodities.
“When people aren’t afraid of risk, they’ll accept risk without being compensated for doing so. The degree of risk present in a market derives from the behavior of the participants, not from securities, strategies and institutions.” – The most important thing illuminated Howard Marks
As we look into 2018 and beyond it is quite apparent that many markets are stretched. Having scaled parabolic heights, valuations look expensive, spreads look thin and interest rates remain at decade lows. Its surreal, Volatility is all but Dead!
Discover how indexing actually affects the market.
The Monroe Doctrine began as a United States policy of opposing European colonialism in 1823. It stated that further efforts by European nations to take control of any independent state in North or South America would be viewed as "the manifestation of an unfriendly disposition toward the United States."
The Silk Road was an ancient network of trade routes connecting the East to West for centuries. Named after the lucrative silk trade, the route was forged in 200 BCE by the Han dynasty. Its usefulness extended into the Roman Empire and Medieval times until its final demise in the 1300's under the Mongol hoards lead by Genghis Khan.
The oil market outlook is always a bit complicated, in part due to the impact OPEC can have on balances. For all the attention paid to changes in U.S. shale output, OPEC is capable of swinging oil balances more in a single month than U.S. shale can in a year.
Despite our negative outlook, markets have the final say. It’s important for us to make a partial retreat from our bearish position, temporarily at least. It’s much easier to be objective when we don’t have a lot at stake.
Though uncertainties remain, we have a broadly positive outlook for commodities in the next year.
Favourable European election results coupled with progress for the Republican growth agenda in the US could soften market uncertainty, says Greg Meier, strategist with Allianz Global Investors. But for the next few weeks, the road still looks bumpy.