The inflation picture is getting better but we still have too much of it. Inflation is going but not gone, and probably won’t be gone anytime soon. Today I’ll tell you why.
A seismic shift is taking place in corporate America as even more companies announce plans to relocate from blue states to more business-friendly jurisdictions like Texas.
As we start the second half of 2024 and we approach next week’s release of the preliminary report on real GDP for 2Q, we continue to expect 2H economic growth and inflation to downshift versus what we saw during 1H of this year.
In this article, we look at three indicators from the past week: retail sales, industrial production, and the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI). At first, these indicators might seem unrelated. However, they all have a role in predicting economic trends.
Analysts periodically construct elegant algorithms that produce interesting conclusions, only to learn that the underlying information is flawed.
Earlier interest-rate cuts would come as good news for the US economy.
Wheat and corn are the most actively traded grains in financial markets. But they can’t damage the global economy like rice. The staple for half the world is largely ignored by Wall Street, but it’s the one commodity that really matters for global food security.
Economists trimmed their US inflation projections through the first half of 2025 and see a slightly higher unemployment rate, a combination they expect will encourage the Federal Reserve to start lowering interest rates.
How’s this for an election trade? Sell your winners now so you have cash on hand this fall to do some aggressive buying as the political jockeying heats up.
Investors are betting on interest-rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve in September, and potentially even in late July. But the outlook for inflation and the labor market in the United States does not indicate that policymakers should begin lowering rates in the next two months.
Investors could be shifting to safer debt, which could outperform once the Federal Reserve starts cutting interest rates.
There’s a new-found religion in the US airline industry, and investors should be thrilled. It’s called discipline.
For more than two years, inflation has eclipsed everything else at the Federal Reserve. In a shift eagerly awaited by global markets, that’s poised to change.
Portfolio Manager Daniel Siluk believes subsiding inflation and declining interest rates underpin a compelling argument for investors to reallocate funds away from money market strategies toward shorter-dated bonds.
As the U.S. evolved from a goods economy to a services economy, expansionary cycles more than doubled in length. But a recent resurgence in manufacturing may be taking us back to the future.
In the post-pandemic fiscal landscape, government debt trajectories may be volatile, but appear broadly sustainable.
Join the experts at Teucrium for a no-cost educational webcast on July 18th at 2pm ET and learn how you can use agriculture ETFs to position your model portfolios for inflation.
Blackstone Inc.’s real estate arm weighed on the investment giant’s second-quarter results, as high interest rates crimped property valuations and investors pumped less money into the business.
At some of the world’s biggest asset managers, ESG fund launches are quietly stalling.
Back in 2021, legions of critics lambasted the Federal Reserve for failing to take proactive and forward-looking steps against the emerging inflation threat. Curiously, many of them have gone silent on the risk that the Fed might get caught flatfooted again, this time by failing to cut interest rates soon enough in the face of weaker inflation and a cooling labor market.
The strong level of belief investors have in the Fed to assure positive market outcomes is belied by the diminishing room it has to maneuver policy. When this becomes obvious, an important market support will be removed.
The dilemma that all Fed committees and chairpersons face when the economic cycle nears a turn but then repeats itself can be summed up with Fed chair Jerome Powell’s recent references: “Easing too soon, too much could harm inflation progress.” “Easing too little, too late could unduly weaken the economy.”
It’s earnings season yet again. And I think this one is going to be more down-to-earth than the ones we’ve had over the past year.
The Federal Reserve is in the pilot’s seat as the American economy approaches a soft landing. The runway is in sight, but some careful maneuvering will still be needed.
Elections have been anything but easy for investors. What has been easy is financial conditions in the US relative to the level of policy rates, fostering the debate over the degree of policy restrictiveness as global monetary easing begins.
GMO has posted a new 7-Year Asset Class Forecast.
Artificial intelligence and generative AI remain the proverbial hype trains of thematic investing this year.
Advisor Perspectives, a leading publisher and ranked as the #1 eNewsletter for financial advisors by the Erdos & Morgan “FAMOUS” Study (2019-2023) has announced its Venerated Voices™ awards for commentaries published in Q2 2024.
Longer duration Treasuries have been mired in a bear market since 2020 but could finally start to see a reversal of fortune.
A growing number of Wall Street economists are cautioning the Federal Reserve is waiting too long to reverse course after raising interest rates to a two-decade high.
The lags between a shift in monetary policy and the economic impact are long and variable. While the actions of the Federal Reserve during the pandemic were unprecedented, it finally looks like the excess money pumped into the economy has worked its way through the system. And with the M2 measure of the money supply down from its peak, the economy is reacting.
Some state that “bears are like a ‘broken clock,’ they are right twice a day.” While it may seem true during a rising bull market, the reality is that both “bulls” and “bears” are owned by the “broken clock syndrome.”
The assassination attempt against former President Trump gave a bump to his odds of becoming president, as they rose from 60% to 67% on Monday morning on Predictit.org.
Outlook 2024: A Turning Point, released in December 2023, featured our perspective on how stocks might respond to turning points in inflation and monetary policy.
Broad measures of investment-grade municipal bonds didn’t do much of anything in the first half of 2024, but some believe it could be poised for some upside.
The case for beginning to recalibrate rates in the S. is on a winning streak for getting stronger with each data print
Credit markets are breathing a sigh of relief after inflation data showed price pressures are cooling broadly, but a weakening economy poses fresh risks to corporate debt.
It’s been clear since the fall of 2022 that the housing market needed lower interest rates to fix many of its problems including a lack of affordability for buyers, the mortgage rate lock-in dynamic for homeowners, and reduced activity for companies ranging from Home Depot Inc. and Lowe’s Cos. to suppliers of building materials.
A second straight month of encouraging U.S. core CPI data supports an initial Federal Reserve rate cut as early as September.
In this article, Russ Koesterich discusses why bonds are still not a reliable hedge for equities in an environment where inflation remains elevated and volatile.
On the latest edition of Market Week in Review, Investment Strategist BeiChen Lin and Regional Director Chris Kalman discussed the highlights from June’s U.S. inflation report.
We want to repeat what we have said in the past: “One data point doesn’t a trend make.” However, the June data, after weaker than expected readings for April and May, confirm our suspicion that inflation numbers during the first quarter of the year were a fluke.
Private market growth in recent years has been remarkable. We think there's more to come.
Softening inflation supports the potential for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in coming months, but there are complexities below the surface.
With the S&P 500 index up almost 18 percent since the beginning of this year, now may be a good time to check how well your retired or near retired clients’ household assets match up with their expected spending liabilities.
Notwithstanding whether there was a formal agreement, the petrodollar is not going anywhere. Even if Saudi Arabia accepts rubles, yuan, pesos, or gold for its oil, it will need to convert those currencies into dollars in almost all instances.
Many people want the passive income that can come with rental properties, but they come with risks and responsibilities.
Younger investors are thinking about their investment portfolios all wrong, and it’s not entirely their fault. Ultimately, it’s up to them to recognize where the best long-term returns lie before too much precious time is wasted.
Lately, I have been getting many questions about investing in private equity. Such is common during raging bull markets, as individuals seek higher rates of return than the market generates.
We are in the time of year when Americans pack transatlantic airliners for their European vacations. I had actually hoped to be one of them. That didn’t work out but we can still talk about events in Europe. And we probably should, because potentially major changes are happening.
