This may be the beginning of the long-awaited U.S. stock market crash, but even if it isn’t those near retirement need to protect themselves from sequence-of-return risk that can ruin the rest of their lives.
As with all decisions involving uncertainty, we want to find the answer which maximizes your expected risk-adjusted return, not your base-case or expected return. This means that we have to go beyond the industry standard and explicitly account for risk in our analysis.
You probably noticed we are having one of those “weeks when decades happen.” Notice also, however, that we are still here. Your investments and businesses may be bruised but you’re still in the game.
Yield spreads are critical to understanding market sentiment and predicting potential stock market downturns. While yield spreads have widened, they remain well below the long-term averages. However, if recession risks increase due to tariffs, sentiment, or illiquidity, those yield spreads will widen further.
After starting the year on a high note with the S&P 500 index of U.S. Large Cap stocks posting an all-time high on February 19th, equities retreated during the second half of the quarter, officially falling into correction territory (down 10 percent) on March 13.
Another period of heightened volatility in the markets reminds us why tax management can be such an essential part of fixed income investing.
It was a wild week on Wall Street after President Donald Trump announced a broad new tariff policy that went beyond what most analysts had anticipated, spurring a plunge in both stock and bond markets.
Vanguard head of U.S. ETF Capital Markets Bill Coleman discussed the growing role that active ETFs are playing in portfolios.
Bonds have gained as investors sought shelter amid growing fears around a tariff-driven global economic slowdown.
Getting into Donald Trump’s head is no easy task. And to the extent his economic intentions are decipherable and coherent, can Trump impose his economic will on other countries? As tariffs go into place, albeit with a partial pause, that remains to be seen.
JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s stock traders took in a record haul in the first quarter, boosted by chaotic market moves set off by President Donald Trump’s policy announcements after he took office in January.
Earnings season begins with companies adjusting on the fly to tariffs. This could give investors insight into strategies firms are taking and how businesses might be affected.
Taxpayers plan to use their tax refunds for essentials and debt repayment, as well as savings strategies. Bill Cass shares ideas and strategies to consider this year.
On 2 April, the Trump administration announced sweeping tariffs that were more aggressive than many had expected. Then on 9 April, the administration announced a 90-day pause on most of the new country-specific “reciprocal tariffs.”
Concerns about a trade war have rattled markets so far in 2025, but we believe fixed income investors need to be patient, stay defensive, and see how things evolve before making any big decisions.
Q1 earnings season is about to kick off amidst what some might consider to be the most uncertain environment for US corporations since the COVID-19 pandemic.
Last week President Trump announced tariffs on nearly all US trading partners, a move that far exceeded the most pessimistic expectations of market participants.
Given the abundance of market uncertainty, it may be best to adhere to Treasuries, or for additional yield, to municipal bonds.
With the financial markets still wrestling with the tariff announcements from last week, one thing is still certain: uncertainty remains an integral part of the investment landscape.
Shorter-term Treasuries gained after an unexpected ebb in US inflation last month calmed bond traders shaken by President Donald Trump’s evolving trade policy.
The fifth edition of our annual “Voice of the American Workplace” survey, conducted by The Harris Poll on behalf of Franklin Templeton, includes the perspectives of both employers and workers. The 2025 survey found US workers are prioritizing work-life balance and their mental health. Employers are listening and strengthening their focus on improving benefits and communication. In this piece, our Jacque Reardon shares findings from the survey and potential implications for employers.
Callable bonds make up a large share of the bond market—and introduce one more variable into the bond-investing process.
How might the recently announced US trade measures translate into economic reality?
With a number of factors at play, the short-term pullback in gold will likely meet resistance to the long-term, unchanged fundamentals,
This article provides information on the history and more recent developments of trust law and the corporate trustee industry. This information will help advisors to make informed decisions on clients’ generational planning choices, and to attract and retain assets.
DoubleLine Global Bond Portfolio Manager Bill Campbell shares DoubleLine’s outlook for risk markets, the U.S. Treasury curve, inflation, growth and Federal Reserve policy in light of Washington’s reciprocal tariffs and reactions of U.S. trade partners.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent played down a selloff in US Treasuries, saying that there was nothing systemic at play, and also served warning against China not to attempt to devalue its exchange rate in retaliation for American tariff hikes.
Citadel Securities’ proposal to process trades for a swath of banks is taking shape behind the scenes, focusing on products across fixed-income markets.
An enduring image from 2024 will be the capture of the SpaceX booster rocket by the Mechazilla robot arms on its return to Earth.
While there are no absolute winners in a trade war, there may be relative winners in the global stock market for investors to consider.
Tariff Turbulence. The President’s long-anticipated tariff announcement on April 2 has come and gone. Our hopes for some clarity, so the uncertainty weighing on confidence and the equity market could subside, were dashed after we heard the breadth and magnitude of the administration’s tariff plan.
We’re adjusting our stance in response to rising risk while maintaining a disciplined view on long-term strategy.
The recent market drawdown highlights risks of a concentrated S&P 500—and the case for diversification now.
Many of us came into the year with highly concentrated portfolios, which now were faced with changing market conditions.
MFS, which pioneered the first mutual fund in 1924, recently entered the ETF arena with the launch of five actively managed products. MFS’s Emily Dupre discusses the firm’s decision-making process around launching ETFs, their investment capabilities, and the role active management plays in a portfolio. Plus, VettaFi’s Roxanna Islam assesses the ETF impact of the recent tariffs announcement.
US Treasuries tentatively resumed their gains on Tuesday after the wildest day for bond traders since the height of the pandemic in March 2020.
We reexamine our macroeconomic outlook in light of newly announced tariffs, which have exceeded market expectations and prompted us to update our assumptions and analysis.
The markets face a challenging path as tariff policies intensify economic uncertainty, yet opportunities persist for discerning investors.
The Federal Reserve started raising short-term interest rates three years ago and the M2 measure of the money supply – what Milton Friedman said to focus on – soon started declining, hitting bottom in late 2023.
The announcement of global tariffs by President Trump has rocked markets and much is uncertain, but there are key facts for investors to keep in mind.
Last week, we noted that “nothing good happens below the 200-DMA,” and the tariff-induced market crash this past week confirmed that statement. However, we also noted that over the last 30 years, previous failures at the 200-DMA have also often been buying opportunities.
The international trading system is not perfect, but as we have said so many times, freer trade is better than no trade and tariffs are, typically, the worst solution to trade issues between countries.
Moving forward, investors may want to keep investment-grade options close with a few from Vanguard to consider.
As market prices change over time, so will the fraction of your portfolio which is in stocks or bonds. How often should you rebalance your portfolio back to your desired asset allocation? And how much is that rebalancing worth?
President Donald Trump and his economic team dismissed investors’ fears of inflation and recession, offering no apologies for the market turmoil sparked by sweeping global tariffs and defiantly insisting a boom is on the horizon.
Traders boosted expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates this year — and raised the specter of a reduction before the central bank’s next meeting — as the US administration’s tariffs ignite fears of a global recession.
President Donald Trump has said his reciprocal tariff policy was meant to stand up for the American worker, whom he portrayed as the victim of a decades-long shift toward unfettered globalization.
Global markets are in freefall in response to President Donald Trump’s universal 10% tariff on all goods being imported into the U.S., with as many as 60 countries facing “reciprocal” tariffs on top of that.
The 10% across-the-board (ad valorem) tariff and specific reciprocal tariffs on most U.S. trading partners went well beyond what most were expecting.
The tariff chaos continues … but the economy remains intact. For now.
