Trump’s Trade Deal with China Is a Tailwind for Global Shipping

President Donald Trump’s announcement on Wednesday of a new trade agreement with China is the kind of headline that gives markets a sense of relief. As I overheard this week at Wealth Management’s EDGE conference, which I attended in Boca Raton, Florida, we may have dodged a recession.

Beyond that, I think Trump’s announcement provides investors with a fresh incentive to turn their attention to global trade, particularly the shipping industry.

According to the president’s statement on Truth Social, the deal is “done,” pending final approval from both him and President Xi Jinping. The terms include a commitment from China to supply rare earth metals, while the U.S. maintains significantly higher tariffs on Chinese imports—reportedly 55% compared to China’s 10%.

I think most people would agree that, after months of tariff turmoil, this is a constructive step toward stability and, indeed, fairness. For shipping, that matters more than you might think.

Shipping Activity Rebounds as Tariff Pause Boosts Imports

As everyone recalls, the White House imposed an eye-popping 145% tariff on Chinese imports in April, sending shockwaves through global supply chains and capital markets. Retailers hit the brakes. Orders were delayed or canceled, and ocean freight volumes plunged.

But just a few weeks later, the administration announced a 90-day pause and slashed tariffs to 30%. “Reciprocal” tariffs with other trading partners were also temporarily frozen.

During that window, we’ve seen a surge of renewed shipping activity.

The National Retail Federation (NRF) reported this week that container imports at U.S. ports are now expected to climb 3.7% year-over-year for the first half of 2025. That’s better than forecasts before the pause. Shipping volume from China jumped 9% in the first week of June alone, according to Goldman Sachs data.

despite tariffs