Robotics was one of the earliest examples of a disruptive technology. It enjoyed some time in the investment community limelight. But it was rapidly usurped by other innovative technologies, including AI.
However, in what could represent potentially compelling implications for ETFs like the Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) and the Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF (QQQM), the robotics industry continues thriving. And it’s increasingly intersecting with AI. Alone, that’s relevant. That’s because robotics represents another avenue for increased AI adoption, and a fast-growing one at that.
Adding to the allure of the AI/robotics combination from an investing perspective is the point that humanoid robots — those with arms and legs — are growing in terms applications and competencies. The growth of that robotics segment is pertinent to investors considering funds like QQQ and QQQM. That’s because humanoid robots are AI- and semiconductor-intensive. Those two traits could spell opportunity for a slew of QQQ/QQQM holdings.
Humanoid Robot Market Could Be Huge
It’s unlikely humanoid robots will be deployed at scale in residences over the near term. But the expected long-term growth trajectory in industry is tantalizing.
“Morgan Stanley Research estimates the humanoids market is likely to reach $5 trillion by 2050, plus related supply chains as well as repair, maintenance and support. There could be more than 1 billion humanoids in use by 2050,” noted the bank.
Still, this is a long-term theme. Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas sees humanoid robotics adoption ramping up in earnest in mid-2030s. As has been the case with other disruptive technologies, that timeline could be hastened if costs for end users decline over shorter time frames. That is a possibility. And if it plays out, it could benefit ETFs like QQQ and QQQM. Last year in developed markets, one humanoid robot was $200,000, or more than a small house in some locations.
“As the technology advances and production volumes increase, prices are likely to fall to about $150,000 by 2028 and $50,000 by 2050. In lower-income countries, which may take more advantage of the cheaper Chinese supply chain, prices could fall to as low as $15,000 by 2050,” adds Jonas.
Currently, China is the leader in humanoid robotics. That’s likely not lost on U.S. politicians and QQQ/QQQM member firms. But that gap needs to be narrowed. If that’s accomplished, the Invesco ETFs could benefit from the U.S. becoming a humanoid robotics leader.
“While it is too soon to declare a final champion in the race for agentic humanoid robot supremacy, the U.S. will need to make significant changes in manufacturing capability, education and national policies to remain competitive in this area,” concluded Jonas.
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