Even the most promising future can change drastically by a life-threatening event. A healthy individual may require around-the-clock care and supervision after an accident, creating the need to solve complex financial planning problems.
Many investors think there are only two options in a market where participants have become overly exuberant, either 'I want in' or 'Get me out.' Our strategies are more nuanced, and we believe fit better with what we expect to transpire.
That there was a price “bubble” that burst in the American political economy from 1835 to 1845 is beyond question. The challenge is to reconcile the data sets for commodity and securities prices, interest rates and production volumes with the narratives of what happened.
Millions of Texans were without power this week when the state was hit with a record setting winter storm. An overhaul of its aging infrastructure would require massive amounts of metals and other materials, which would be positive for miners and producers.
One of my favorite investing legends is Oaktree Management’s Howard Marks. His investing wisdom and in-depth knowledge of investor psychology and market dynamics are unparalleled. Given the “speculative mania” we continue to watch in the market, I thought a review of some of his previous thoughts is appropriate.
Here are my five favorite podcasts for financial advisors in growth mode.
How can you help a family foundation plan for rapid growth in a way that is consistent with their wealth management objectives?
If, however, the pandemic continues into summer, it will mean the Gripping Hand is still squeezing us. Employment won’t recover and more small businesses will fail. This relief package, as large as it is, may prove necessary and maybe even too small.
Rob Arnott: “There hasn’t been a better time to be a value investor at any other time in my career. I look back at the tech bubble and I never thought I would see valuations stretched the way they were then. We're back to that, and then some." We invite you to revisit “Reports of Value’s Death Have Been Greatly Exaggerated” now published in the Financial Analysts Journal.
Rick Rieder and team think that today’s potent policy cocktail holds important implications for the path of economic growth, markets and the value of a dollar.
Fortunately, human behavior has a history of repeating itself at extremes. The worst buying decisions are made at the top. Just like bonds, the convexity is true when yields rise going forward. It’s a slippery slope and could be vexing.
Any surge in inflation will likely not last for long, but Italy's economic troubles and the shift in rental markets may endure.
It’s hoped that an extra $1,400 in the pockets of everyday Americans may help support lagging U.S. consumption. We believe the stimulus, along with improved vaccine roll out, may also help support commercial air travel.
Nothing so animates a speculative herd as a parabolic price advance in an asset detached from any standard of value. I am convinced that future generations will use the present moment to define the concept of a reckless speculative extreme, in the same way our generation uses “1929” and “2000.”
Those of you with kids and grandkids may at some point have stepped inside a GameStop. If so, you might be familiar with the video game retailer’s tagline: “Power to the players.”
It has been my tradition to informally rate the investment-related books I read in the past year. I have also included some novels and books of general interest. Here is my list of winners and losers.
Read our year-ahead report to learn how this shift could lead to investment opportunities in 2021 and to understand RBA's positioning.
By the end of the first decade of the 19th century, everyone in the U.S. was accepting denominations printed on paper by banks as payments in dollars. Americans had invented retail credit banking and discovered how much they liked it.
In the years since the end of the gold standard, there’s been a significant lack of discipline in government spending. Today, the federal debt is closing in on an astronomical $28 trillion, which is more than 130% of the size of the U.S. economy.
For European banks’ stockholders, 2020 was a year to forget. But bank bondholders enjoyed positive returns and may overcome COVID-19 challenges again in 2021, backed by solid balance sheets and supportive regulatory conditions.
The speculative “V” is one of the most interesting and challenging features of the market cycle. For passive investors, it can be a period of exhilaration followed by panic.
Emerging-market stocks rebounded in 2020 even as the COVID-19 pandemic spread globally. As vaccines and other favorable conditions unfold, investors have good reasons to consider EM equities in 2021 while strategically considering their potential risks.
Today we’ll begin by looking at new virus developments, some of which are good, some very good, and some frightening. We (the entire world) are in a very tight race with dire consequences if we lose.
Founding Father Benjamin Franklin said it best: “They who can give up essential liberty to obtain a little temporary safety deserve neither liberty nor safety.” In this light, what are we to make of Trump’s social media suspension?
Credit markets have staged an epic rebound from the depths of March 2020. But in a low-growth, low-yield world, we believe there may be more room to run in 2021.
Are you committed to using digital marketing to grow your practice in 2021? What’s the ideal path to convert a prospect into a client? If you don’t have a crystal clear strategy to convert prospects into clients, chances are you’ll end up spending more money, energy, and time than you ever should. Worse yet, you may end up “striking out” on developing new client relationships with rich opportunities. The good news? You can 5x your return on marketing spend by following a simple, proven strategy. It’s exactly what the top 25% of advisers are doing right now to move prospects from “cold to gold” - quickly.
The seemingly endless election of 2020 is finally over, with Democrats winning both Senate seats in Georgia.
As we enter 2021, there are two myths told to investors to support the bull market narrative. The first, as we debunked recently, is that low-interest rates justify high valuations. The second is that since valuations are not as high as the “dot.com” crisis, there is no “stock market bubble.”
Mortgage rates in the U.S. started 2021 by setting another record low. The average for a 30-year, fixed loan fell to 2.65%, down from 2.67% last week and the lowest in data going back 50 years, Freddie Mac said in a statement Thursday.
Despite extensive economic and human costs, 2020 may be a turning point in multiple ways.
It’s coming. Is it here? Perhaps. Or maybe not. But sooner or later, it is coming. Preparing now for the eventuality seems the most prudent course.
We have a lot to reflect on this year. Here’s what I’d like to see more and less of in 2021.
As we look toward 2021, one of the key issues facing wealth managers will be the changes that may come with the Biden administration. There has been talk of raising both income and capital gains tax rates, as well as Social Security taxes that could be imposed on high earners. Although Biden has rejected a wealth tax advocated by some in the Democratic Party, he has proposed changes to estate tax laws, such as taxing unrealized capital gains at someone’s death
Gold and Bitcoin had a very good 2020. Investors, worried about currency debasement from all the money-printing, sought stores of value. Gold surged over 25%, its best year in a decade, while Bitcoin was up more than 300%.
In October, I discuss how the “2nd Derivative Effect” would mute the impact of future stimulus programs. With the passage of the $900 billion stimulus package, we can update the estimates for the economic impact heading into 2021.
Investors and planners desire clarity around tax rates to help make informed decisions around investment moves and related impacts to portfolios.
And then there’s Bitcoin. The world’s biggest cryptocurrency has surged nearly 220% this year, touching an all-time high of $23,717 in intraday trading on Thursday.
The third wave of the pandemic may be showing signs of a peak. While new cases remain very high, the seven-day daily average was down for two days in the past week, suggesting we may be close to a peak.
Several former world leaders, a Hong Kong media tycoon, the CEO of Theranos and Jeffrey Epstein’s confidante — all are scheduled to have their day in court next year.
They were once America’s corporate titans. Beloved household names. Case studies in success.
On December 21, Tesla will be the largest company ever to enter the S&P 500 Index. Tesla’s skyhigh valuation, which meets our real-time definition of a bubble, conforms to the observation that market-cap-weighted indices buy high and sell low—the antithesis of prudent investing.
We believe traditional fixed income should continue to provide a reliable source of diversification against a growth shock, but low rates and the risk of an inflation shock necessitate broadening the menu of diversifiers.
Industrial metals are well on their way to being among the top performers of 2020, supported by red hot demand from China and global supply concerns.
In Europe, investors like Alessandro Tentori are starting to say their goodbyes to the region’s bond market, worried that soon there may not be any place left for them.
We anticipate that COVID-19 vaccines and the easing of lockdowns will allow for a return to more normal economic activity by mid-2021.
“Dr. Copper,” so named for the metal’s ubiquitous use in many different applications, has been ripping higher since its 52-week low in March, thanks to a number of factors including promising economic data.
Zombies are firms that are neither dead or alive. They are in so much debt that virtually all their free cash is used to service their debt, and that is very damaging to GDP growth. This month, we explain why there are more and more zombies all over the world, and why they do immense damage to the global economy.
The institutional investor’s role in the effort to combat climate change is misplaced.
So far this year, shares of HIVE Blockchain Technologies have soared an incredible 715%, well past Ethereum’s gain of 273%. 2020 has been marked by healthy expansion in mining capacity, the most recent example being HIVE’s acquisition of additional access to low-cost green energy.
A Happy Thanksgiving weekend to all my US friends. This year was different for many of us—sometimes by choice, sometimes not. But there’s one bit of good news I think we can all share: The holiday season means 2020 is almost over. Soon, we’ll be able to turn the page.
