Search Results
Results 9,451–9,500
of 11,878 found.
Two Point Three Sigmas Above the Norm
by John Hussman of Hussman Funds,
If you’re waiting for stocks to become overvalued by 2 standard deviations, we’re already past that, and we would not be at all surprised to observe another decade of negative total returns on the S&P 500, as we observed the last time valuations were similar on the most reliable measures.
Show Me the Stocks, Not the Cash, Say Optimistic CEOs
In early March, I made the case that there’s no greater vote of confidence in a company’s growth prospects than when its top officers put some skin in the game and buy their own company stock. Among the examples I used were Warren Buffett, who owns millions of shares in Berkshire Hathaway; Elon Musk, who purchased over $100 million worth of Tesla stock in 2013; and myself, the largest shareholder of U.S. Global Investors. Another example of how bullish an executive is on his own company is when he chooses to forego a base salary entirely and instead be compensated in company stock.
Pondering Halftime Adjustments
At the beginning of the year, we wrote about an aging bull market that we thought could be ridden, but with the caveat that one wouldn’t want to take too much risk given the magnitude of the move, current valuation levels in the U.S., and an overall evidence profile that was clearly mixed with pockets of both strength and weakness. When weighing the evidence, our dashboards offered no reason to reach for additional risk this late in the cycle, but instead we tried to focus on some big picture themes that could help us find attractive opportunities to position for.
Cross Currents
by Anthony Valeri of LPL Financial,
Cross currents continue to push and pull the bond market, leaving bond prices and yields range bound ahead of another Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting and key batch of monthly economic reports. Intermediate to long-term Treasury yields increased by 0.01% to 0.11% for the week ending April 24, 2015, despite weaker economic data.
Being There
by Jeffrey Saut of Raymond James,
Spring has definitely sprung here in Florida as pollen is in the air and raindrops fall on my tin roof with the sound of golf balls. “Tra la! It's May! The lusty month of May! That lovely month when ev'ryone goes blissfully astray,” to steal a line from the play Camelot. But many market pundits are worried about the softening economic reports, prompting me to dredge up my annual missive about the book “Being There” by author Jerzy Kosinski. The story revolves around a simple-minded man named Chance “the gardener,” who knows only gardening and what he sees on television.
Celebrating Romania
Ten years ago, Fondul Proprietatea (Fondul) was established to compensate Romanians whose properties were confiscated by the former communist government, and we were selected as its investment manager in September 2010. My colleague Grzegorz Konieczny, based in Bucharest, spearheaded the effort to list Fondul on the Bucharest Stock Exchange in 2011, and now Fondul is making its debut on the London Stock Exchange on April 29. In honor of the occasion, I’ve asked Greg to share his thoughts on investing in Romania today, and the exciting changes that have taken place there in the past few years
Breaking Out of Bondage
In a new quarterly letter to GMO's institutional clients, co-head of asset allocation Ben Inker provides the basis for future bond returns: "For while it is unlikely that stock investors are going to achieve anything like as strong a return over the next 30 years as they did over the last, it is basically impossible for bond investors to duplicate their feat." ("Breaking Out of Bondage").
Analysts Love to Talk about China but Should Focus on South Korea
by Jeremy Schwartz of WisdomTree, Inc.,
This week Professor Siegel and Jeremy Schwartz chatted with Jeff Weniger, Investment Strategist at BMO Global Asset Management. We spoke at length about the impact of the U.S. dollar on global markets. I found our conversation about the impact of easy monetary policy on economies such as China and South Korea particularly noteworthy.
Mythbusters: Style Performance During Bear Markets
by Doug Ramsey of The Leuthold Group,
Will Rogers said, “It isn’t what we don’t know that gives us trouble, but what we know that ain’t so.” Investors have long “known” that Value stocks provide a safer place to hide than Growth stocks during a cyclical bear market, an assumption probably based on: (A) experience since the early 1970s; and (B) common sense, in that speculative investments with low price tags and low expectations should be expected to suffer less when animal spirits deflate.
Equities Should Push Higher Along a Bumpy Road
Investors mostly focused on the positives last week. Corporate earnings
generally beat expectations and merger and acquisition activity remained
solid. Despite disappointing economic data, this trend reinforced the
perception that the Federal Reserve would hold off on rate hikes for the time
being. The turmoil in Greece rattled investors, but remains relatively contained.
Fair Value on the S&P 500 Has Three Digits
by John Hussman of Hussman Funds,
We continue to classify market conditions among the most hostile expected return/risk profiles we identify. The current profile joins rich valuations with continued evidence of a subtle shift toward risk aversion among investors, which we infer from market internals (a variant of what we used to call “trend uniformity”), credit spreads, and other risk-sensitive measures.
Spring Quarterly Commentary
Charlie Munger, firmly ensconced in the investor hall of fame, remains, at age 91, one of our favorite purveyors of worldly wisdom on subjects investment related and otherwise. He is also known to be blunt and humorous, offering the above response to a question regarding money-printing, interest rates and unintended consequences at the Daily Journal shareholder meeting a few weeks ago. When a genius like Charlie is confused...then things indeed are confusing.
Stand and Deliver: Will the US Economy Rebound as Expected in the Second Quarter?
by Russ Koesterich of BlackRock,
Most market watchers are blaming another bad winter for this year’s rough start, and they’re assuming a strong second-quarter rebound. One obscure economic statistic calls that view into question.
Searching for Clarity Among the Dots
In 1886 Georges Seurat finished his most famous painting, A Sunday Afternoon on the Island of La Grande Jatte. Seurat used a new technique, Pointillism, in which small dots of color are applied to the canvas to express an image. More recently, Janet Yellen and the Federal Open Market Committee (the FOMC) updated their own version of Pointillism to express an image called the dot plot – a graphical representation of each FOMC member’s forecast of future federal funds (fed funds) rates.
Global Divergence, the Federal Reserve and the Impact on U.S. Insurers
by David Braun, Scott Millimet of PIMCO,
Insurance publication SNL Financial recently sat down with members of PIMCO’s Financial Institutions Group to discuss PIMCO’s latest views on global divergence, the Federal Reserve and the impact on U.S. insurers in their investment portfolio positioning.
Emerging Markets Winners and Losers: Q1 2015
2015 kicked off with a rocky start for emerging markets: pending US rate hikes, falling commodity prices, quantitative easing in Europe, and idiosyncratic country risks all soured investor sentiment and caused the US dollar to soar. This led to substantial weakness in emerging market (EM) foreign exchange, pummeling US-based investors in many local currency bond markets. Despite that pain, EM credit performed well, and along with EM sovereign debt, posted positive gains.
Lower Oil Prices Have Varied Effect on Municipal Bond Market
by Stephanie Larosiliere of Invesco,
The decline in oil prices since the summer of 2014 continued throughout the first quarter, as oil supply surpassed demand and we saw substantial price declines. This is of particular interest to municipal bond investors, as many US state and local budgets have a substantial dependence on oil production and exploration revenue, and lower oil prices can influence economic growth and inflation, which can affect Treasury and municipal yields.
The Charge Of The Monetary Light Brigade - Neosho Capital On The European Central Bank And Negative
by Chris Richey of Neosho Capital,
A paper on European Monetary Easing, which we feel is a well-meaning, but misguided effort, to solve demographic, cultural, and political problems with massive monetary manipulations of exchange rates and securities markets.
QE: The Silver Lining of Slower Growth
by Russ Koesterich of BlackRock,
Stocks struggled last week amid more evidence that economic growth is not accelerating as expected. In the United States, the S&P 500 Index fell 0.99% to 2,081, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 1.28% to 17,826, and the Nasdaq Composite Index lost 1.30% to close the week at 4,931.
The AIIB
China has founded the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) to compete with the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank. The U.S. has opposed the creation of this bank but, despite administration opposition, 57 nations have joined. A chorus of commentators have suggested that the founding of this bank may mark the end of U.S. hegemony. In this report, we describe the AIIB, including its members and capitalization. Next, we cover the conventional wisdom surrounding the bank, and follow up with our analysis of the real impact of the bank. We conclude with potential market ramifications.
Thoughts from the Frontline: Half a Bubble Off Dead Center
by John Mauldin of Mauldin Economics,
Central banks, in their valiant, unceasing efforts to restore liquidity and growth, have unleashed numerous unintended consequences that are beginning to show up in earnest. Today we are going to review the well-meaning behavior of central banks for clues about our near future.
Key Themes for Navigating Credit Markets in Alternatives Strategies
by Joshua Anderson of PIMCO,
Against a backdrop of low volatility and tight spreads, 2014 turned out to be a challenging year for many alternative investors as they watched their trades become crowded, and reverse quickly when expected returns were not realized. One such example was the positioning among investors in advance of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) Asset Quality Review announcement; many had increased their exposure in anticipation of a tightening of European bank-related securities.
Hoisington Quarterly Review and Outlook – First Quarter 2015
Over the more than two thousand years of economic history, a clear record emerges regarding the relationship between the level of indebtedness of a nation and its resultant pace of economic activity. The once flourishing and powerful Mesopotamian, Roman and Bourbon dynasties, as well as the British empire, ultimately lost their great economic vigor due to the inability to prosper under crushing debt levels.
Implications of a Fed Funds Rate Hike on Asian Securities
by Gerald Hwang of Matthews Asia,
The prospect of a higher U.S. federal funds rate can make U.S. cash and short duration Treasurys look more attractive vs. risky assets. The effect of higher U.S. short rates is felt across all asset classes, regardless of the pattern of cash flows or currency of denomination. We can expect some market reallocation out of risky assets and into risk-free assets. But why does the market seem to fear a wholesale shift out of risky assets and why might that view be unjustified? In the second installment of a two-part series, Matthews Asia Portfolio Manager Gerald Hwang, CFA, examines the ways in wh
Market Overview Q115
One consequence of loose monetary policy and financial repression is that market participants stop “making judgments for themselves” which exacerbates procyclical behavior. At the same time, high levels of debt weaken the ability of the economic and financial systems to absorb shocks which creates a fragile situation. Although this environment is difficult for almost all investors, it will favor those who can think and act independently.
Gundlach - The Bond Market is at a Pivotal Point
by Robert Huebscher,
Jeffrey Gundlach turned defensive on the U.S. bond market at the end of January, almost precisely when yields were at their lowest point. Whether his outlook changes hinges on the direction of the 30-year bond and if it retests its low yield of 2.45%.
Yield Curve Flattening and Volatility LIkely to Continue in 2015
by Payson Swaffield of Eaton Vance,
In the first quarter of 2015, we continued to see a trend toward a flatter yield curve, shaped by rising rates at the short end and a relatively tethered long end, against the backdrop of higher volatility.
Global Economic Risks Remain but Appear to Be Diminishing
Investors reacted to a range of data and news last week that included a further digesting of the relatively weak March jobs data, ongoing merger and acquisition news, signs of weakening corporate earnings and further evidence of upward pressure on wages. Amid all of the crosscurrents, U.S. equities finished higher, with the S&P 500 Index gaining 1.7%.1 Most international markets advanced as well, while Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar rose.1 Industrials, health care and energy stocks led the way while telecommunications, utilities and financials lagged.
How Much Lower Can The 30-Year Treasury Yield Go?
by Team of GaveKal Capital,
Three weeks ago we mentioned how Fed assets were finally declining on a quarterly basis. Since then we have had a few more data points released and the trend is still downward. Compared to three months ago, the Fed's balance sheet has shrunk by over $32 billion. We are, however, beginning to reach the contractionary limit during the QE period. The most the Fed's balance sheet has contracted over a three month period was $81.8 billion in May 2012.
Weighing the Week Ahead: The Start of an Earnings Recession?
The year-over-year growth rate for forward earnings has once again turned positive. We can and should be on the watch for a true recession – the source of major earnings declines. The talk about an “earnings recession” should not be a source of worry.
Finding Value in Declining Commodity Prices
So what’s the deal with Chinese equities right now? After all, China’s economic growth for the first quarter of the year cooled to a six-year low of 7 percent. The market surge is mostly attributable to monetary easing and government policy changes such as housing stimulus and modernization of the country’s financial structure. But there’s more at work.
Favorable growth in European bond markets
Phil Apel, Head of Fixed Income, reviews European current fixed income market trends and provides an outlook for the bond market throughout 2015. Apel reflects that during Q1, global bond markets were positively driven by the actions of the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank (ECB) resulting in bonds yields generally falling, and good returns for government bond markets.
Results 9,451–9,500
of 11,878 found.
