Loomis, Sayles & Co.

Oftentimes, tighter monetary policy exposes financial excesses and pockets of risk within an economy. In the current late-cycle environment, this may be the case.

Senior Fixed Income Analyst Bedford Lydon shares three factors that may affect states' creditworthiness in a downturn.

It’s been—to put it mildly—an interesting time in the US Treasury market.

Senior Sovereign Analyst Jon Levy shares his analysis of the European Central Bank’s plans to unwind its largest quantitative policy measure, how it could affect markets and how it compares to previous policy changes.

One year after the invasion, Senior Sovereign Analyst Hassan Malik looks at the state of affairs in the Russia-Ukraine war and what has (and hasn't) changed.

The Loomis Sayles Mortgage & Structured Finance Sector Team shares insights on consumers, real estate markets and more.

A plunge in pricing power was one of the most notable developments we found in our latest quarterly survey of our credit analysts, who follow more than two dozen industries.

The Loomis Sayles Investment Grade Sector Team shares their expectations for the IG corporate bond market in 2023.

The Loomis Sayles Emerging Markets Debt Sector Team shares their views on growth, corporate defaults and inflation.

The Loomis Sayles Global Credit Sector Team discusses rate volatility, possibly deteriorating credit fundamentals and key technicals at play in the market.

Investment Director Cheryl Stober shares her team’s expectations for defaults, risks and opportunities in bank loans.

The Loomis Sayles High Yield Sector Team shares their expectations for spreads, defaults and trends in the high yield market.

Municipal Bond Strategist Jim Grabovac shares his views on outflows, trends and opportunities in the municipal sector.

Craig Burelle sets the stage for our Sector Teams' Outlook blog series with his views on the macro backdrop in 2023.

As the second-largest economy in the world, China’s reopening has important economic and market implications. Here are some key considerations.

What's next for global growth? Our Macro Strategies team shares a regional breakdown of their growth expectations across the globe.

The US has had 12 recessions since 1945. Chief Economist Brian Horrigan contemplates the potential for unlucky #13.

Our survey on corporate health in the third quarter painted a picture of an economy in transition. Even as some key fundamentals showed a marked deterioration from the previous quarter, others, notably the outlook for corporate credit, displayed surprising resilience.

Does it matter who wins the Senate? It matters a great deal. Read our latest blog regarding midterm elections.

You might be surprised to learn that despite the devastation, we do not expect Hurricane Ian to have a material credit impact in Florida.

Senior Sovereign Analyst Jon Levy tackles three big questions on the Bank of England's recent operations.

The global economy appears to be headed for a downturn and we believe the clock is ticking on the US cycle as well.

Senior Sovereign Analyst Jon Levy looks at this week’s rate and currency shocks in the UK and shares what he believes is a root of the problem.

As the Federal Reserve raises rates in an effort to stifle inflation, what are the implications for US mortgage holders?

The aftershocks of Europe's gas crisis could shape asset prices in a dynamic manner for years to come – both in Europe and globally.

What's next for global growth? Our Macro Strategies team shares a regional breakdown of their growth expectations across the globe.

So many critical economic and market developments this year can be traced back in one way or another to the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

You might think these headwinds would be broadly negative for EM debt, but we see bright spots within the EM sovereign and corporate landscape.

Corporate fundamentals have been deteriorating in the US. Over the past six months we have seen meaningful erosion in profit margins, pricing power and the outlook for credit.

Concerns regarding inflation are almost everywhere you look—unless you happen to be looking at the Treasury bond market.

Exceptional circumstances roiled the loan market in the first half. It's impossible to say what will happen next, but the loan market's floating-rate feature could offer value in multiple scenarios versus other fixed income assets.

Municipal bond issuers are often linked to tangible, physical assets directly exposed to the effects of climate change.

The current spread differential between European and US corporate spreads have us considering a shift in our thinking.

The business press sometimes likes to say that a recession is a decline of real GDP lasting at least two consecutive quarters. Not so.

We think the housing sector should hold steady with good structural trends, a potentially bad environment for housing bargains and a scenario for prolonged inflation.

Recent G-7 discussions about imposing caps on the price of Russian oil and gas have led to some head-scratching.

With consumer behavior under a magnifying glass, Portfolio Manager Jennifer Thomas, shares her assessment of the US consumer.

Senior Sovereign Analyst Jon Levy answers some key questions about the European Central Bank's latest moves.

The Federal Open Market Committee’s announcement of a 75-basis-point (bp) rate hike on June 15 revealed a shift in the Fed’s thinking.

US dollar cycles last an average of six to nine years, and we are approaching the tenth year of this dollar bull market.

A historic shift in central bank policy is currently underway. The implications of this change are likely to be varied and in some instances substantial.

As investors navigate an uncertain future after QE, the past may be their best guide.

Go around the world in one blog post; Loomis Sayles' Macro Strategies Group shares a visual snapshot of its GDP growth expectations for the months ahead.

The recent surge in interest rates and inflation has put the record strength in housing under a microscope.

Senior Global Equity Opportunities Analyst Julian Wellesley looks at the progress banks have made in disclosing their climate risks and how they could still improve.

Though we are wary of suggesting that “it’s different this time,” we see reasons to believe the most recent yield curve inversion doesn't signal imminent recession

With inflation and growth pressures in abundance, consider TIPS.

A look at the recent shift in bank loan and high yield bond correlations and why it matters for fixed income investors.

How might China manage its strategic relationships with Russia and the West as the war continues? Senior Sovereign Analyst Bo Zhuang shares his views through the lens of President Xi Jinping’s agenda.

Senior Sovereign Analyst Gregory Hadjian and Alpha Strategies Portfolio Managers Andrea DiCenso and Peter Yanulis consider the potential opportunity offered in local EM debt markets.

Last week, we outlined three possible scenarios for the Russia-Ukraine conflict and their implications for financial markets. Unfortunately, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has made the full invasion scenario a reality.

Loomis Sayles' Macro Strategies Group looks at three scenarios for the Russia-Ukraine conflict and how those outcomes could impact financial markets.

Senior Sovereign Analyst Hassan Malik explains why he believes Russia’s role in the global supply chain gives it enormous economic leverage over the West.

Loomis Sayles' Mortgage and Structured Finance Team shares its views on key themes in 2022.

Global EM Equities Portfolio Manager Ashish Chugh shares his views on key themes in the EM equities space in 2022.

Members of Loomis Sayles' IG Credit Sector Team share their views on key themes in 2022.

The municipal bond market has historically outperformed relative to Treasurys during periods of rising interest rates.

Members of Loomis Sayles' Global Credit Sector Team share their views on key themes in 2022.

We think risk assets can offer opportunity in 2022 as long as investors can stomach potential volatility.

Loomis Sayles' Emerging Markets Debt Sector Team share their views on key themes in 2022.

Leveraged loan supply and demand experienced a banner year in 2021.

Loomis Sayles' high yield sector team share their views on rising rates, CCC-rated bonds and where they're seeing potential opportunity in 2022.

To kick off our annual sector outlook series, Loomis Sayles Senior Macro Strategies Analyst Craig Burelle shares his views on the macro backdrop in 2022, covering inflation, the Fed and the global expansion.

COVID-19 variants may come and go, but Senior Commodities Analyst Saurabh Lele thinks investors should plan for a longer-term scenario: a prolonged transition from pandemic to endemic conditions.

Supply chain issues, slower growth in China and the lingering impact of COVID-19 have created a bumpier path for global growth than we had expected. We anticipate solid but less synchronized global growth ahead. Many central banks have stated their intent to remove accommodation slowly, which is a silver lining to our less-robust growth outlook. Read on for a visual snapshot of our GDP growth expectations around the globe.

Michael Glachun shares why he thinks this cycle has three distinctive features that could propel a faster pace and greater magnitude of Fed tightening than the market seems to expect.

This installment of our ESG Engagement Series unpacks the relationship between a leading auto manufacturer and Loomis Sayles Credit Researchers.

While the surge in gas prices seems to have surprised the market, it’s been more than nine months in the making. Ryan McGrail discusses the factors behind the surge and what could happen next.

Markets tend to get a little bumpier at this stage of the expansion, but we believe risk assets should still perform well.

Senior Sovereign Analyst Bo Zhuang shares his perspective on China's Evergrande situation and how the government may respond.

Senior Sovereign Analyst Bo Zhuang clears up some key questions about China's regulatory crackdown.

We believe global growth in 2021 will remain strong, though a grand global reopening looks increasingly unlikely. The spread of the COVID-19 delta variant may limit a return to normalcy and full employment. We believe the next few months will be critical for determining the economic trajectory in 2022. Read on for a visual snapshot of our GDP growth expectations around the globe.

The business development companies (BDCs) sector could follow a growth path similar to REITs.

Chief Economist Brian Horrigan looks at the pandemic’s lingering effect on employment and shares his outlook for the months ahead.

The business development companies (BDCs) sector could follow a growth path similar to REITs.

Senior Global Equity Opportunities Analyst Julian Wellesley discusses the role of banking in racial wealth inequality in the US and the steps banks could take toward financial inclusion.

Global EM equities portfolio manager Ashish Chugh shares why he thinks EM inflation and rates fears may be overblown.

Even with high valuations, we believe earnings growth can beat consensus expectations. In this environment, we’re not shying away from the risk-on trade.

Emerging Market Debt Portfolio Manager Elisabeth Colleran shares why she believes EM corporates have a particularly strong value proposition within the broader EM debt universe.

Like most risk assets, emerging market (EM) equities were hit hard by the pandemic, but they’ve made a remarkable rebound. From the low on 23 March 2020 to 18 June 2021, the MSCI Emerging Markets Equity Index gained 80%.

Loomis Sayles' Macro Strategies team shares their latest views on the credit cycle and key drivers they're watching.

We believe the municipal bond market is on the brink of major changes. The Biden administration has proposed legislation that, if passed, could meaningfully increase both taxable and tax-exempt supply in the municipal bond market. While this potential shift could cause some short-term disruption, we believe it could result in more balanced supply and demand over the medium term.

Senior Macro Strategies Research Analyst Craig Burelle shares a visual snapshot of our GDP growth expectations around the globe.

Metal and mining companies face some risk of being saddled with stranded assets, but the story for these companies is complex and nuanced.

On 6 May, Scotland will hold parliamentary elections that could ramp up the push for a Scottish independence referendum. We believe this event and the prospect of another independence referendum could introduce market volatility.

Loomis Sayles credit research analysts look at President Biden's American Jobs Plan and discuss the components that might affect the power sector.

The consumer asset-backed securities sector is often under heightened scrutiny.

As the global recovery kicks into gear, there are signs of shortages and delays causing pricing pressure. It appears that aggregate demand may be rebounding faster than aggregate supply.

We have witnessed central banks implement, reduce and exit quantitative easing (QE) programs to influence interest rates.

Cruiseline operators may finally get the green light to start sailing out of US ports on a limited basis.

Uneven COVID-19 vaccination rates around the globe have led to diverging growth expectations for individual economies.

We believe risk assets have further to run as the credit cycle continues to move forward.

New bond issuance exploded to record highs in 2020. What will 2021 supply look like?

We are witnessing countries using yield curve control policies—despite many unknown factors and potential repercussions.

Real rates in the United States have moved sharply higher since the beginning of 2021.

We are entering a period when data may be on a wild ride. Brian Horrigan shares why he thinks market participants shouldn’t panic over big moves in upcoming data.

Rising yields and a steeper yield curve are par for the course as an economy enters the recovery phase of the global credit cycle.

im Grabovac looks at the recent muni market selloff and why he thinks it was a valuation correction rather than a market response to actual selling.

About a week ago, an unprecedented polar vortex descended upon the southwestern United States. The deep cold forced power plants in Texas to take production offline, leading to rolling blackouts and leaving more than four million households without power.

Congressional leaders are aiming to pass a $1.9 trillion fiscal stimulus package by mid-March. This approach is not without risks.

Is global GDP growth poised for a potential boom once social distancing measures ease? Read on for a visual snapshot of our GDP growth expectations around the globe.

Engaging on ESG issues across our portfolios is part of our commitment to providing superior investment returns.

Collateralized loan obligations are the largest source of demand in the loan market. Cheryl Stober breaks down some key drivers of CLO manager behavior.

Senior Credit Research Analyst Ryan McGrail explains why he believes President Biden's early orders will have a limited near-term impact on oil producers and production.

The Mortgage and Structured Finance Sector Team discusses key themes in the securitized market in 2021.

The Loomis Sayles Municipal Sector Team discusses key themes that may impact the municipal market in 2021.

The Loomis Sayles Investment Grade Sector Team answers three questions on their outlook for 2021.

John Bell shares his thoughts on yields, defaults and the role of CLOs in the loan market in 2021.

Loomis Sayles' Global Credit Sector Team shares their outlook on key themes in the euro credit space.

The Loomis Sayles Emerging Markets Debt Sector Team shares their views on corporate spreads, foreign exchange and leverage in 2021.

Ashish Chugh discusses his outlook on EM equities in 2021.

A look at what a 50-50 split in the Senate could mean for President-elect Biden’s policy proposals and nominees for courts, agencies and his cabinet.

We believe key ingredients are in place for global financial markets to continue discounting the recovery phase of the credit cycle.

Loomis Sayles' high yield sector team discusses downgrades, defaults and value in the high yield market in 2021.

Editor’s Note: We’re changing things up. Every year, Loomis Sayles features outlooks from our sector teams — teams composed of traders, analysts, strategists and portfolio managers immersed in their respective sectors of the market. This year, we’re tailoring our outlooks to focus on what’s top-of-mind for many investors.

Insurers generally take a narrow approach to investing in the securitized sector, usually through allocations in their investment grade fixed income reserve portfolios.

Systematic Investing Strategies Portfolio Manager Harish Sundaresh and Product Manager Roger Ackerman take a look in the rearview mirror at how risk mitigation strategies fared during the election period.

A K-shaped recovery is an uneven one in which some industries and some groups get left behind. That is what we will be watching for in the months ahead.

Many market participants expect major economies to follow a path to recovery similar to China’s, but we see three key factors that suggest China’s recovery may be on its own trajectory.

We have consistently observed that the market is inefficient at pricing specific risk. Loomis Sayles' full discretion investment style follows two core philosophies to help capitalize on this persistent inefficiency in corporate credit and drive excess return potential.

Zhi Wei Feng discusses why we believe the market reaction to recent onshore debt defaults in China was based on market fears instead of a real surge in credit events.

While we expect global growth to slow in the fourth quarter as many countries try to contain another wave of COVID-19, we have upgraded our 2020 GDP growth forecasts for the US and China.

Banks have begun to voluntarily disclose their exposure to climate change risks. The information is critical to bank management teams and investors, both of whom need to understand the challenges ahead.

With transformational change likely off the table, healthcare and pharmaceutical companies should be well-positioned to weather the next presidential term.

Municipal bond defaults have been rising, but investor demand remains robust. This incongruence may suggest the municipal market is behaving irrationally, but we don't think that's the case.

Almost nothing has felt certain in 2020. The presidential and congressional election results are two more things to add to the list. Markets had largely expected a blue wave, which has not materialized.

Coming into the home stretch of 2020, continued concerns about COVID-19 and the political environment persist and have been feeding risk-averse sentiment for many investors. Given the year the world has experienced, it’s not surprising people are focusing on portfolio risk mitigation.

There appears to be an increased willingness to engage in deficit spending on both sides of the aisle in Washington, DC. This could lead to a more “middle of the road” outlook for fiscal decision making.

Loomis Sayles credit analysts look at clean energy investment opportunities through a different lens. Here, they discuss what a Biden administration could mean for the power sector.

We’ve gone without a lot of things in 2020. Surprises aren’t one of them. After ten months of twists and turns, most of us are ready for a nice long stretch of the mundane. But this has been a strange year, and neither the year nor, I fear, the strangeness is over.

Sending a ballot by mail may seem straightforward, but the rules can be complex. Brian Horrigan explains some of the challenges associated with mail-in voting.

Loomis Sayles' Senior Credit Research Analyst Ryan McGrail summarizes potential policy proposals under a Biden administration and highlights the states and regions facing the greatest risk of federal regulation.

While there is a lot of uncertainty about the outcome of the upcoming US presidential election, the process will remain intact regardless of who wins. Brian Horrigan shares a refresher on the Electoral College.

What could a Biden victory mean for investors? Read our latest blog post from the Loomis Sayles Global Fixed Income Team for their views on some key campaign issues.

Key events related to fiscal policy, social distancing and COVID-19 could dictate US economic performance. Our outlook is broadly constructive.

Investor resilience may be tested in the coming months with dwindling fiscal support and political uncertainty in the US.

Democrats could sweep the November elections according to many independent polls and political experts. What would that mean for the healthcare and pharmaceutical sectors, which have shown sensitivity to the political landscape?

When it comes to thinking about opportunities and risks in emerging markets (EM), old habits die hard. Investors and news articles tend to treat EM like one homogenous opportunity set, glossing over the range of underlying asset classes, regions, countries and currencies—each with distinct characteristics.

Infrastructure financing is coming to the municipal bond market. What can we expect?

The December deadline for a Brexit deal is quickly approaching. One consequence of Brexit was that firms couldn’t plan—or they were forced to plan for a no-deal scenario. It’s a big reason why the pace of business investment was so sluggish in the years since the 2016 referendum...

Consumers are traditionally the engine of the US economy, and I believe consumer confidence is an important indicator of consumer intentions. The August reading of the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index suggests that consumers are not feeling optimistic.

US-China relations are built on a fragile web of complex issues. Recently, we’ve seen headlines about technology, sovereignty and human rights flare up, and the Phase 1 trade deal review has been delayed indefinitely. Here, I review these flashpoints and how they could affect US-China relations.

We believe the global economy appears to be working its way out of a deep recession. Read on for a visual snapshot of GDP growth around the globe.

The fund's portfolio managers explain their differentiated approach and why they believe it can deliver attractive returns in any market environment.

The Loomis Sayles Core Plus Fixed Income Team shares their thoughts on the potential for downgrades in the BBB debt market and dialing up portfolio risk.

The global pandemic has devastated global trade. It appears that some of the drop in trade is simply related to lower domestic demand everywhere as spending on consumer goods and investment goods has been slashed.

The Loomis Sayles Alpha Strategies Team answers three questions on corporate health, regime models and opportunities in emerging markets.

Loomis Sayles Portfolio Manager Ashish Chugh provides an update on emerging market equities and the impact COVID-19 has had on them recently.

In March, Bank Loans Portfolio Manager John Bell saw three different roads back to par, with market recovery in 6-12 months the most likely. How has the recent market activity changed his view?

In March, the Loomis Sayles Global Fixed Income Team anticipated the economy could experience sluggish growth in the third quarter after a downturn in the second. Given the ongoing vagaries of quarantines and shutdowns, how has their growth outlook changed?

Investors appear firmly focused on the economic recovery ahead. With Fed support and the potential for additional fiscal stimulus, we expect capital to shift toward riskier assets like credit and equities. However, we acknowledge that risk assets are largely priced for the better days we see ahead—a substantial decline in economic conditions could send markets into a corresponding decline.

The homebuilding and building products industries have held up quite well during this economic downturn compared to the material negative impact they experienced during the global financial crisis. After an initial demand shock resulting from shelter-in-place orders, housing activity has been trending more positively than I would have expected in May and June.

As the economy moves into a credit repair phase, uncertainty related to the future implications of COVID-19 persists.

As we enter credit repair, we are wary of using the global financial crisis as a benchmark for the path to recovery. We see several key reasons that suggest this time will be different.

A manager's alpha thesis can offer insight into an investment strategy's performance potential. Our growth equity alpha thesis is the differentiated philosophy & process behind what we do every day.

The COVID-19 pandemic has tipped the global economy into what appears to be the deepest recession in decades. No region has escaped the impact, but some have fared better than others. Read on for a visual snapshot of what 2020 growth may look like across the globe.

It may surprise some investors to learn that the leverage profile of emerging market (EM) corporations appears to be in better shape than that of their US counterparts. Maybe it’s a matter of “been there, done that.”

To make the best decisions, investors need a clear view of the road ahead. Watch to see how LASER can help you to stop looking only in the rear-view mirror.

It can be difficult to give a fair representation of each country’s market response to the COVID-19 outbreak. Each nation has varying initial conditions, population responses, and approaches to quarantines.

Credit markets are moving fast. But periods of maximum uncertainty often make the most attractive entry points.

COVID-19 and turbulence in the oil market have been reshaping daily life, economic fundamentals and market activity for weeks. Emerging markets, like the rest of the world, have been along for the ride.

Credit markets are bifurcated, and there’s a major yield difference between the perceived winners and losers. This trend is creating a lot of questions—and potential value—for credit investors. Here’s my take on the current environment and why I’m excited about the opportunity it’s creating.

When storage capacity is near its limits, how do oil producers offload their inventory? One way is to incentivize buyers with negative prices. This is precisely what happened on April 20, the day before the May WTI futures contract expired.

Investors and financial markets are forward-looking. They are constantly trying to anticipate the future and how to position for it. In a COVID-19 world, where economic uncertainty and financial market conditions are at extremes, that’s no easy task.

On April 9, the Federal Reserve announced the creation of the Municipal Lending Facility (MLF), aimed at allowing state and local (S&L) governments access to credit so that they may continue to function in these hard times.

On March 31, the Federal Reserve announced the creation of another new liquidity facility; this one is aimed at central banks and international institutions. This new facility is a temporary repurchase agreement facility for Foreign and International Monetary Authorities (FIMA)...

The Federal Reserve (Fed) has taken another step in its attempt to avert a financial crisis. It revived its Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility (TALF), a measure last used in the Great Recession.

It’s amazing what you can achieve with a budget of $75 billion per day. Since mid-March, the Federal Reserve has worked relentlessly to unfreeze Treasury markets. The results of its asset purchases are starting to show. Treasury liquidity—one of the most unusual and troubling pain points of this liquidity crisis—has vastly improved since quantitative easing (QE) started.

The Loomis Sayles municipal credit research team offers their current outlooks on key sectors.

COVID-19 continues to cause havoc across global economies—a trend that, unfortunately, is likely to continue through this quarter. However, we anticipate a broad rebound later this year on the back of meaningful stimulus recently put in place.

Like everywhere else, Europe needs liquidity. And the European Central Bank is delivering that in abundance. It appears to stand ready to do more without delay when markets become dysfunctional.

It’s been said before, but the truth appears to be this crisis is very different than others we’ve experienced. It's not an asset bubble tied to exuberance, greed, default, fraud or mismanagement of a country, currencies or anything else in our manmade economic system.

To help support investment-grade corporate bond market liquidity, the Federal Reserve introduced two facilities March 23: the Primary Market Corporate Credit Facility (PMCCF) and the Secondary Market Corporate Credit Facility (SMCCF).

Oil’s back below $30 and suddenly it feels like 2016 all over again. Only it’s not. Saudi Arabia’s 2015-2016 production boom was a war on US shale. This time, Saudi Arabia is waging a war for market share against Russia and the US. It’s a war with no winners, least of all US fracking.

The municipal fixed income market, like most other asset classes, is experiencing unprecedented volatility. Large mutual fund outflows are adding to the volatility as investors seek to add to cash reserves by selling what may be deemed easiest to sell.

We expect to see a combination of anti-viral medications and vaccines develop over 6 to 12 months globally. We are seeing daily positive articles on the effectiveness of anti-virals from other countries. Vaccine development appears to be moving very quickly, and there is potential for a vaccine to get to people as soon as the end of 2020.

In a rapidly evolving environment, our credit analysts offer their early takes on how key industries might fare.

On Thursday, March 12, Rick Raczkowski, co-lead portfolio manager of Core Plus Fixed Income participated in a conference call with clients to discuss recent events and market activity. He discussed that while there is a lot of fear and uncertainty in the market right now he and co-lead portfolio manager Peter Palfrey, are maintaining their discipline of managing through the cycle as they have for the past 20 years.

On Friday, March 13, Loomis Sayles’ Global Fixed Income team held a conference call to discuss the current market environment, policy responses and potential opportunities. Here, portfolio managers Lynda Schweitzer and Scott Service summarized a few key points.

When the world’s biggest debt market starts having major liquidity issues, investor panic rises to a whole new level. On March 12 and 13, after about a week of extraordinary dysfunction in the US Treasury market, the Federal Reserve issued a major crisis response, expanding Treasury purchases and repurchase operations to boost liquidity and shore up so-called risk-free assets.

On Thursday, March 12, Loomis Sayles’ Full Discretion team held a conference call to discuss current conditions, upcoming challenges and potential portfolio positioning and solutions. Here, portfolio managers Matt Eagan and Elaine Stokes summarized a few key points.

The Loomis Sayles Alpha Strategies team shares some insights as markets grapple with three issues: the impact of COVID-19, an oil fight and a crisis of confidence in Western governments.

Loomis Sayles analysts dove deep into the rapidly evolving green bond market. Read on for our findings.

We held a conference call yesterday to discuss the market and economic impact of COVID-19. In case you missed it, each of our speakers shared their key takeaways.

human lives has indeed been unnerving and regrettable. However, fear can lead investors to make irrational choices. We acknowledge that the virus is a global growth risk, and the situation will probably get worse before it gets better. But we suggest focusing on fundamentals and distinguishing between short-term tumult and long-term impact.

Quantitative managers are creating investment strategies that harness AI. How should investors assess them?

Nearly three and a half years after the Brexit referendum and all of the parliamentary drama in 2019, the UK finally legally exited the EU on Friday, January 31. The UK has now entered an 11-month transition period that ends December 31, 2020.

There is no shortage of alarming and depressing news when reading about the Wuhan coronavirus. The World Health Organization has declared a global health emergency. There are still many unknowns, but there are some indications that the outbreak may not be as severe as our worst fears. Here’s what I’ll be watching as the outbreak unfolds.

2020 is starting off with a strong risk appetite, generally fair-to-rich asset valuations, and accommodative monetary policy from the major central banks. If the current expansion can stay on track, we anticipate another year of positive risk-asset performance.

The US municipal market registered strong performance in 2019, driven by record demand from individuals and constrained supply of tax-exempt issuance. Both factors grew out of changes legislated in the 2017 Tax Act. As we enter 2020, valuations appear tight versus Treasurys and fair versus corporates and risk assets generally.

Looking ahead, we believe the global economic environment will remain supportive for securitized sectors despite potentially slowing economic growth. In the US, we believe strong fundamentals, including robust wage growth and healthy household balance sheets, will provide solid support for real estate and consumer-related credit.

Economic and corporate earnings growth will likely have to beat consensus expectations for investors to earn above-average returns in the year ahead.

We are bullish on emerging market (EM) equities for 2020 given valuations, continued low interest rates and cyclical and structural growth in many of these countries.

We expect emerging market (EM) fixed income asset classes to continue to perform well in 2020. Though the sector appears to be starting from less attractive valuations than a year ago, in a low-yielding world, we see opportunity for relative performance in credit and local rates and a tactical tailwind for EM currencies.

We expect European investment grade bonds to post slightly positive excess returns in 2020. We believe the sector stands to benefit from healthy supply and demand balances, likely offsetting tight valuations and weakening fundamentals.

The US investment grade (IG) corporate bond market is coming off an exceptionally strong year. Declining interest rates coupled with sharply narrower credit spreads contributed to strong absolute and relative returns.

Markets appear to expect the Federal Reserve to hold interest rates steady during 2020. In this environment, we think the outflows seen in leveraged loan mutual funds are likely to abate, and possibly change directions.

A combination of spread compression and reduced US Treasury base rates contributed to double-digit gains in the high yield corporate credit sector in 2019. However, unlike many years with similar returns, lower-quality, CCC-rated credits meaningfully lagged their higher-quality counterparts. At this point in the extended credit cycle, investors appear wary about the performance of lower-quality credits.

Brace yourselves. In an unexpected move on January 3, the United States carried out a drone strike that killed a key military figure in Iran, General Qassem Soleimani. Soleimani was the head of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps' Quds Force, the architect of Iranian military influence across the Middle East and the second most powerful figure in Iran after the Grand Ayatollah Khamenei.

Everyone has their methods for mining valuable insights from the vast amount of data and news available in this age of information. At Loomis Sayles, leveraging our sector teams is one way we do this.

It became abruptly apparent in September, when overnight repo rates surged to near 10%, that liquidity in the banking system had suddenly become insufficient. While a confluence of factors (corporate tax payments, settlement of Treasury auctions, etc.) ultimately tipped the secured funding market into imbalance, it was policy choices—monetary and regulatory—that unwittingly pushed this market to the brink of illiquidity.

As we close out 2019, we took a look back at the year’s most popular blog posts. In a year full of attention-grabbing headlines, breaking news and viral tweets, all of these posts share a major theme—they look beyond the headline and examine the underlying facts.

Our investors share what they're watching as they prepare for 2020.

What happened? UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson and the Conservative Party won yesterday’s election in a landslide, taking 365 seats. With a majority of 80 seats, the Conservatives have their largest majority since 1987. Ultimately, the country wanted to “Get Brexit Done” too.

Value investing is a part of who we are and how we manage the Investment Grade Bond Strategy. Learn more about our research-driven, contrarian approach.

We’re seeing early signs of stabilization in global manufacturing. Central banks appear committed to supporting the global economy through easier monetary policy. Market sentiment has become more optimistic. We’re optimistic too. However, even if a solid manufacturing recovery materializes, we are not expecting global growth to accelerate substantially in 2020.

For us, risk management isn't only about limiting risk. It's about collaboration and taking customized, appropriate risk for each client.

In China, pork prices are up 70% (!) year over year. A swine fever outbreak has crippled the pork industry and caused a surge in pork prices. Pork prices are a main driver of China’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) increase. CPI inflation could reach 4% by year-end, one percentage point above the People’s Bank of China’s 3% target.

Never a dull moment in UK politics. The EU finally granted the UK a Brexit extension to January 31, with the option to exit December 1 or January 1 if the Withdrawal Agreement Bill is ratified earlier. January 31 is the most likely date for Brexit.

With the latest crisis in Turkey, Turkish equities have come under pressure and Turkish bank stocks are looking cheap. Do they really offer value?

What happened? UK Parliament held two key Brexit votes yesterday. UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson won the first vote, support for the Withdrawal Agreement Bill in principle, by a 30-vote margin (329 vs. 299). But he lost the second vote, the “programme motion” to fast-track Brexit law, by a 14-vote margin (308 vs. 322).

The US and China surprised me with their announcement of a small, “phase one” trade deal last week. I had thought any kind of deal would be a long shot, so I view this development as good news. Here’s a summary of the deal and what could happen next.

We think an outright recession in the next 12 months is unlikely, but we need to see a cyclical pickup soon. In the meantime, we believe patient investors could still see some modest returns.

Despite the potential for choppy trade, we could see mid-single-digit returns over the next 12 months.

A multi-asset credit strategy seeks attractive global credit risk premia in different credit sectors as well as different credit asset classes.

Losing interest in bank loans now that rates have begun to fall? It’s a common gut reaction for those who have a narrow view of loans as a tactical play on interest rates. However, loans have other virtues worth considering in the current environment. Here are two factors that might have you rethinking your instinct to swipe left.

The fact that US trade with China has declined shouldn’t be a surprise. But how bad is the damage? According to the US international trade report for July, released September 4, US exports to China have declined at double-digit rates for the past 12 months. This is the longest sustained contraction in the last 20 years.

While the longest economic expansion in US history continues, investor skepticism regarding its staying power seems to be rising. In our view, indicators suggest the economy is in the downturn phase of a mini-cycle—a period of slower economic growth but not outright GDP decline.

Global economic activity indicators are signaling that the manufacturing-driven slowdown has not yet run its course. However, we remain optimistic that activity will pick up in the latter half of 2019 without a recession in the US or China. Read on for a visual snapshot of growth themes across the globe.

Why we think Asia high yield credit can offer a distinctive opportunity.

On August 5, 2019, the US dollar-Chinese yuan (USDCNY) exchange rate broke above 7.0 yuan to the dollar, an important threshold for many market watchers. Not surprisingly, China and the US had very different takes on the CNY weakness.

We expect modest total returns through year-end, as long as corporate earnings and the global economy continue to expand.

For years, President Trump has accused China of purposely devaluing the renminbi to boost exports. With trade and political tensions boiling over, the question of whether China will devalue the renminbi often comes up.

Loomis Sayles Strategic Alpha is a benchmark-agnostic core bond alternative, offering the potential for greater diversification in a risk-aware framework.

Loan-only capital structures have gotten some negative attention lately. Critics caution that loan-only structures leave senior-loan investors vulnerable because there is no subordinated debt below them if the company goes bankrupt.

"Core" PCE inflation year over year eased from a recent high of 2.04% last July to 1.55% in March. This easing has made some market participants speculate that the US Federal Reserve will ease up on monetary policy. However, there’s more than one way to measure inflation.

The global economy appears to be heading out of a soft patch within its continued expansion. In the coming months, we expect a pickup in economic activity, stable global growth, moderate-to-low inflation pressure and accommodative monetary policy across most regions. Read on for a visual snapshot of growth themes across the globe.

The road ahead for risk assets looks pretty smooth right now. But valuations have already baked in a fairly rosy macroeconomic outlook. Markets are anticipating a rebound in growth and continued economic expansion. Is that what we will get?

Markets anticipating rebound in growth and continued economic expansion.

The subprime consumer sector has come a long way since the dark days of the financial crisis. Borrowers, lenders and issuers have made improvements, but still subprime can’t seem to exorcize its reputational demons. I’ve seen a lot of news coverage recently that reinforces investors’ worst fears.

It’s no secret that people are living longer. Falling fertility rates indicate that, on average, global populations are getting older. This “demographic tsunami” has already hit Japan, and continental Europe is not far behind.

We remain cautiously optimistic on emerging markets (EM) in 2019 despite a challenging 2018.

The ISM’s Institute for Supply Management US manufacturing surveys are widely recognized gauges of economic health. They’ve taken us on a ride in recent months.

We expect the formation of collateralized loan obligations to remain a positive technical driver for loan demand through 2019.

Consensus expectations for global growth have been revised lower and fiscal stimulus in the US could fade in the coming quarters. We view this period as a soft patch in a continued expansion that likely leads growth back toward levels consistent with the global economy’s long-run potential.

Sector teams are a critical part of the investment process at Loomis Sayles. They bring together traders, analysts, strategists and portfolio managers, each with expertise in specific financial market sectors.

Our 2019 Outlook from the Loomis Sayles Sector Teams shares insights and opportunities across every sector, from bank loans to currencies.

Global economic activity appears to be slowing down. But slowing down and tipping into recession are two different things. Isee limited evidence to suggest the global or US economy is heading toward recession in the near term. But investors should be ready for higher volatility and modest total returns as we transition toward slower growth in this mature phase of the expansion.

Modest total returns and above-average volatility may define the risk asset landscape in 2019 as economic and corporate earnings growth slow.

US bank shares are in a bear market. The KBW Bank Index fell 20% in 2018. That’s much worse than the overall stock market, which fell 6% in the same period. Ten years after the global financial crisis of 2007-2008, many investors are worried that this economic upturn can’t last much longer. Anxiety about the risk of a recession is high.

Wary investor sentiment, seasonal trading activity in loans, and a big institutional seller have combined to drive down loan prices over the last few weeks. The press has been all over this, using covenant-lite and loan-only narratives with which we disagree. We don’t see a sensational story here. The recent decline was mostly due to technical factors amplifying global macroeconomic worries.

To wrap up 2018, we took a look back at the year’s most popular blog posts. Not surprisingly, they reflect some major themes that emerged during the year – rising Treasury yields, volatility and US politics. In case you missed them, here are five of our favorites, listed in order of popularity.

The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee is set to release its press statement on December 19. I expect the FOMC to increase policy rates by 25 basis points. The new range for the federal funds rate would be 2.25% to 2.50%.

The national midterm elections are today. As of yesterday morning, Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight website is giving the Democrats an 85.6% chance of taking the House of Representatives and the Republicans an 85.6% chance of keeping the Senate. This forecast should be no surprise; the president’s party almost always loses House seats in the first midterm election...

The federal deficit hit $779 billion in fiscal year 2018. This was the highest level since the $1.09 trillion deficit of FY 2012. Many pundits point to the tax cuts as the driver, but that tells only a part of the story.

Most major economies appear to be gradually advancing through the credit cycle, with most countries in recovery or expansion. We expect global growth to remain near current levels, but we are mindful of key risks. Read on for a visual snapshot of growth themes across the globe.

The US and China look set to propel global growth forward in the quarters ahead, supported by stable growth and moderate inflation. Here's a snapshot of my asset class outlook.

Growth and inflation within the world’s largest economies should remain near current levels, keeping the positive operating environment for companies intact.

As we learned in the childhood fable The Tortoise and the Hare, the tortoise’s steady pace puts him ahead of the hare. We like to think of senior loans as the tortoise of the investment universe. Here are some highlights about this slow and steady asset class and how it may help your investment portfolio.

Loomis Sayles' Cheryl Stober thinks of senior loans as the tortoise of the investment universe. Read her recent blog for more on this slow and steady asset class and how it may help your investment portfolio.

Fans of the “Fast & Furious” movies know the game of chicken. Two cars race toward each other, each driver waiting for the other to swerve out of the way. If neither swerves, the cars collide head-on. This game has been playing out in Europe as the UK and Italian governments each face off with the EU.

The Loomis Sayles Multi-Asset Income Team shares their approach to creating sustainable, consistent income through any market environment.

I believe US dollar strength is likely to persist, largely driven by global growth, monetary policy and trade developments. However, there are a number of additional factors at play. Here is a checklist of dollar drivers and how I expect each factor to influence the currency.

The crisis in Turkey is rapidly evolving, with new developments emerging every day. Turkish assets sold off significantly from August 8 to 13, before experiencing a short covering rally beginning on August 14. Perhaps the selloff was overdone, or perhaps not. Either way, the trajectory for Turkey has not changed.

There’s a tug of war brewing between housing costs and consumer budgets in the US. Single-family home prices have risen 6% a year or more since 2011, and supply/demand forces point to further increases. But consumer budgets have limits. Some buyers are now spending around half of their income on housing.

Momentum in the US economy relative to the rest of the world should keep the Fed on its current path to higher short-term interest rates.

While the recent backup in 10-year Treasury yields may look stark on short-term charts (namely 1-year and 2-year charts), the move we’ve seen in rates thus far is actually very normal considering where we are in the economic cycle.

Christopher Romanelli examines the factors that could support the high yield market in a world of tighter monetary policy.

Is a regime shift in monetary policy imminent? One might think so looking at the yield curve flattening trend—the 5-year and 30-year Treasury yield spread has narrowed 75 basis points (bps) since September 2017 and appears to be on track to flatten entirely.

It may be chilly outside this spring, but the US economy is currently running hot. Two data releases this week indicate that the economy is hot. However, I caution that these days, hot is not what it used to be.

Don't let increased volatility throw you off track. We believe key drivers of growth around the world remain in place. Although the pace of global acceleration has slowed a bit recently, economic indicators continue to signal levels of activity consistent with expansion.

Subprime. It’s the eight-letter word that turned into something of a four-letter word during the 2008 global financial crisis. Even now, ten years later, that stink has not washed off. Investors have been eyeing subprime auto asset-backed securities (ABS) for signs of trouble, wondering if growing auto debt levels, rising interest rates, deteriorating performance and changing issuer composition could mean the next subprime storm is brewing.

The LOIS spread is at its widest point since the financial crisis. It may be unnerving, but we don't think it's a sign of trouble in the financial system.

We all knew volatility couldn’t stay low forever, even with solid global growth and low inflation. Rising volatility is common in the late stage of the economic cycle, and negative headlines have been dominating market sentiment.

While the markets in the first quarter may have been roiled by a former antagonist—volatility—the outlook for the rest of the year looks solid. Global growth is projected to continue, fortified by strong corporate earnings estimates—particularly for US companies, where tax cuts should boost bottom lines.

I noticed an interesting result in the Conference Board’s most recent Index of Consumer Confidence in March. The percentage of survey respondents describing business conditions as "good" reached its highest point since 2000. Great news, right?

We expect the upward trend in rates to continue, but at a fairly slow pace that shouldn’t disrupt risk assets.

Many of India’s state-owned banks are in trouble. This month the government is injecting $13 billion to help these banks offload non-performing loans. By 2020, the total cost of injections is projected to rise to $21 billion, about 1.3% of GDP.

It’s no secret that the retail sector has been under a lot of pressure. Retailers are facing significant headwinds, including high competition, increasing promotional costs and declining mall traffic. So is retail exposure a problem for CMBS? The short answer is yes. But it’s complicated.

FX trading involves infinite complexities, opportunities and risks. Loomis Sayles breaks down some of the concepts and describes the firm's approach.

Cracks are starting to appear in five highly leveraged economies: Canada, Australia, Norway, Sweden and New Zealand. For several years following the global financial crisis, these five countries all shared a common theme—a multi-year housing boom, fueled by low interest rates, which resulted in very elevated levels of household debt.

The Year of the Dog may not be known for being the most auspicious, but for China’s local, renminbi-denominated bond market it may prove momentous. I see two likely drivers of increased foreign investment as the government continues to lower the barriers to entry.

We expect a constructive global growth environment to persist into 2018. While there is potential for a temporary slowdown, a significant deviation from broadly positive trends across risk asset markets seems unlikely. How might this differ across key regions? Read on for a visual snapshot of themes across the globe.

For many investors, it’s pretty unsettling to hear that the market’s “fear gauge” is suddenly on a tear. But that’s what happened over the past week. That fear gauge, formally known as the VIX, rose almost 300% in three trading days, signaling an end to the market calm that dominated in 2017.

Volatility returned in a big way earlier this week. Over the past few trading sessions, equity market volatility as measured by the VIX more than doubled, and global equities from Europe to the Asia Pacific region suffered steep declines. What happened?

Earlier this month, the Loomis Sayles sector teams published their 2018 outlook. Here's a snapshot of what our bank loans sector team is anticipating this year.

Earlier this month, the Loomis Sayles sector teams published their 2018 outlook. Here's a snapshot of what our bank loans sector team is anticipating this year.

NAFTA is facing an existential threat. The US and its global trading partners could be entering uncharted territory.

Earlier this month, the Loomis Sayles sector teams published their 2018 outlook. Here's a snapshot of what our investment grade and high yield sector teams are anticipating this year.

Investing in the information age can be a noisy endeavor–investors are barraged with new information minute by minute. At Loomis Sayles, our investors count on sector teams as one way to cut through the noise.

What’s ahead for major market sectors in 2018? Experts from research, trading and portfolio management at Loomis Sayles weigh in.

This year saw a lot of buzz about the retail apocalypse as a record number of retailers filed for bankruptcy, participated in distressed debt exchanges or simply shuttered thousands of stores. Going into November, expectations for traditional retailers were pretty low and retail fear was at an all-time high.

The US House of Representatives passed a tax reform bill on November 16. How could it affect financial and real estate stocks?

The current equity bull market has been chugging along, enjoying unusually low volatility in recent quarters. The S&P 500^® Index is on an extended bull run. The index hasn’t had so much as a 5% correction since February 2016, and it has gone without a 20% or greater pullback since March 2009.

Global growth has chugged along at a modest pace throughout 2017, and I expect more of the same heading into 2018. Read on for a visual snapshot of our key themes across the globe.

Does the high yield bond market offer enough value at this point in the credit cycle?

The Trump administration announced Jerome Powell as its choice for Federal Reserve Chair on November 2. The following are some thoughts on what we could expect from a Powell appointment.

China’s 19th Communist Party Congress is fast approaching. While the meetings are primarily a political event, they will shed some light on the party’s broad economic goals. There will also be major reshuffling across party leadership this year. 

Has China’s renminbi unseated the Japanese yen as the new “safe haven” currency in Asia? Some market commentators have adopted this view given the renminbi’s recent strength, intensifying geopolitical tensions in Asia and Japan’s proximity to North Korea.

With limited evidence of excess in the global financial system and mostly low interest rates around the world, we remain optimistic about global economic prospects. The expansion is poised to continue, led by growth in emerging economies.

Eight years into its run, the global expansion looks poised to continue. What might this mean for asset markets?

Current estimates show a significant gap between the rate expectations of Wall Street economists and the Fed funds futures markets. The spread between their estimates for December 2019 is nearly 100 basis points, the equivalent of roughly four rate hikes. Over time, this gap in expectations is going to close one way or the other.

The Federal Reserve’s balance sheet has been grabbing headlines recently, and with good reason: the Fed’s three massive bond buying programs, used to stimulate the US economy during and after the 2008 financial crisis, have left the central bank holding trillions of dollars worth of Treasury and agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS).

It’s a common misconception that credit and equity performance move in tandem. When can divergence occur and how can credit investors prepare?

In early August, the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) released a small business survey that revealed an upbeat assessment of the labor market. Firms have lots of job openings and they are planning to hire, but they are having a hard time finding qualified applicants; the quality of labor is a problem.

Many income-seeking investors may need a new approach in today's low-yield environment. Loomis Sayles can offer a unique solution.

When talking with potential investors, a refrain we often hear is, “I was burned by bank loans before, and now I’m not sure if I should buy them again.” Is this fear unique to the bank loan asset class?

After taking a hit earlier this summer, oil prices have climbed back around $50 a barrel. What’s my advice on oil price volatility? Hang in there. The good news—we’ve been through this before. The bad news—we’ve been through this before.

London office property prices have stayed surprisingly high since the Brexit vote to leave the European Union (EU) in mid-2016. A recent rise in vacancy levels (from a low base) hasn’t yet made a dent in high rent costs, while low transaction prices have attracted foreign buyers lured by the post-Brexit fall of the British pound.

After a dip in global real economic growth last year, when a collapse in oil prices crushed the energy sector and related industries, I see global real GDP growth climbing to about 3.4% this year, leveling off through 2018.

Fourteen Loomis Sayles investment experts address the key issues they’re watching for the remainder 2017. Read on for their insights.

The Fed is withdrawing from the MBS market, but we see a number of positives supporting agency MBS over the next 6 to 12 months.

Investor confidence in the global outlook for monetary policy, economic growth and inflation has kept volatility contained. Can it continue? We think the risk of a destabilizing policy error is low if central banks remain cognizant of global financial conditions.

Investor confidence in the global outlook for monetary policy, economic growth and inflation has kept risk appetite high and volatility contained. Can it continue?

In late May, OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) and non-OPEC oil producers agreed to extend production cuts through April 2018 in the face of oil inventories that remain well above average. While one would have expected a positive market reaction, many investors believed deeper cuts were necessary and the market has sold off sharply since the meeting.

UK politics are not stable after last week’s general election. When Prime Minister Theresa May called for a snap election in April, she sought to reaffirm her political mandate as Brexit negotiations launched.

This week’s Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting will be anything but boring. The Federal Reserve seems eager to move toward rate and balance sheet normalization, probably because President Trump is unlikely to nominate Fed Board Chair Janet Yellen for another term when her current term expires in January. I expect Yellen and her colleagues to take three steps this week.

Emerging market (EM) assets were hit hard by the crash in commodity prices in 2014-2015, but so far this year, EM and commodity performance have diverged. EM is one of the top-performing asset classes across global markets despite flat commodity prices. This doesn’t square with the market rule of thumb that EM tends to perform in line with commodity prices. I believe strong EM performance can continue if we begin to see global demand for commodities materialize; otherwise, this divergence could reverse.

A synchronized pickup in global economic activity has lifted the spirits of businesses, consumers and investors worldwide. Though many equity markets are near 52-week highs and credit spreads are near multi-year lows, corporate profits are now growing again in most countries.

Markets breathed a sigh of relief as centrist Emmanuel Macron won the French presidency on Sunday, May 7. Despite the seemingly good news, Italian bonds sold off as investors prepare for turbulent Italian politics ahead.

Global markets breathed a collective sigh of relief last week when it became clear that Geert Wilders' anti-European Party for Freedom (PVV) did not win the most votes in the March 15 Dutch election.

The global auto industry completed a successful year in 2016, driven by solid sales performance in the US, China and Western Europe.

So far, the market’s reaction to Turkey’s historic referendum on the adoption of a national presidential system on April 16 has been positive, with local bonds and the currency rallying. Despite a slim margin, this was a major win for President Erdoğan and the Justice and Development Party (AKP).

How might the new administration make good on its promise of a lower corporate tax rate? The House has proposed funding the cut with a new border tax on imports (BAT).

Recent trade actions against Chinese aluminum imports may result in higher tariffs. Ironically, the US and China have their interests aligned in this area.

The ongoing economic and profits recoveries mean global risk assets could see modest upside from here.

Auto insurers have been caught off-guard. Traffic deaths had been in decline for four decades, as a result of Mothers Against Drunk Driving (MADD), seat belts, crumple zones, anti-lock braking systems, air bags and a string of other safety improvements.

In 2017, the risks to the euro area stem from politics, not the economy.

We’re modestly optimistic about 2017, but there are a host of unknowns as we become acquainted with our new President Trump, what policies he may pursue, and how they will impact the world body politic. Loomis Sayles' sector teams weigh in on potential opportunities in the year ahead.

For the first time in quite a while, Washington could prove to be a source of positive earnings catalysts in the months ahead.

What a difference a few months can make. The world economy now looks to be on sounder footing, with economic data surprising to the upside, developed and emerging market economic momentum improving, global manufacturing recovering and the US profits recession ended.

European banks seem to be on an upward trajectory – although improvements are likely to come at a slow pace and with some risks.

Markets were in reflation mode during the final weeks of 2016, sending the 10-year US Treasury yield to its highest level in more than two years. While economic indicators have shown modest improvement, most of the rise in yields is built on lofty expectations. In the coming years, we think a strengthening macro backdrop may support modestly higher yields.

Every six months, we share insights from Loomis Sayles portfolio managers and analysts; what are the current themes and risks shaping their investment decisions? Looking into 2017, geopolitical shifts, rising rates, regulatory changes and new proposed policies from President-elect Trump will all be key factors.

It wasn’t much of a surprise that the Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate increase today - its first hike in 12 months and the second hike since 2006.

Donald Trump’s presidential victory may have a mildly positive impact on US banks. A change in several economic factors could signal a more positive environment for banks.

Italy rejected Prime Minister Matteo Renzi's constitutional reform in Sunday’s referendum, as polls had predicted. But Italian voters didn’t just say “no,” they said “hell no!” with 59.1% voting against and 40.9% voting in favor.

The Trump victory has inflicted a heavy dose of uncertainty on the capital intensive global auto industry.

Many of the policies President-elect Trump discussed on the campaign trail align with current and past GOP tendencies but others seem diametrically opposed to GOP DNA.

Donald Trump’s presidential upset has stunned financial markets, which had heavily discounted a Clinton victory. What might Trump’s policy proposals mean for markets and key components of the US economy going forward?

Donald Trump's presidential upset has stunned financial markets, which had heavily discounted a Clinton victory. What might Trump's policy proposals mean for markets and key components of the US economy going forward?

As do many economists, I have a strong bias for free trade. These are not happy times for those of us with such a perspective.

The burning question for equity investors is: what will happen to earnings in 2017?

Every quarter, we update our global forecast map. Explore our key themes by region in our latest infographic.

We expect equities to continue their slow uptrend into next year.

Senior Global Economist James Balfour explores some of the key macro themes influencing global markets.

Fiscal policy developments could create bond market volatility going forward, but historically low interest rates are likely to persist.

Our bank loan team has long believed that BB-rated bank loans can be very attractive to asset allocators who wish to reduce volatility, improve risk/return trade-offs, and ameliorate drawdown in high risk categories such as high yield and equities.