Last week, we explored the old economic rules that falsely predicted an imminent recession. Losing those guideposts has complicated our efforts to craft an outlook.
I have received a lot of blowback from my recommendation that the Federal Reserve (Fed) drop the Fed Runds Rate by 150 basis points (bps) over the next several weeks. Certainly, the data has come in stronger than I (and many others) have anticipated. Particularly surprising was the drop in jobless claims, now nearer to the midpoint of my 200k to 240k range after breaching the upper limit.
Looking back at the 14 Fed rate cycles since 1929, certain patterns emerge. Still, investors instead need to examine what factors are driving the Fed now.
Silver is an important component of solar photovoltaic (PV) panels, meaning that for China to reach its ambitious climate targets, it must import massive amounts of the white metal. In June alone, China spent over $228 million on silver, a new monthly record based on Bloomberg data going back to 2009.
A recent article co-authored by Stephen Miran and Dr. Nouriel Roubini, aka Dr. Doom, accuses the U.S. Treasury Department of using its debt-issuance powers to manipulate financial conditions.
While high rates can make borrowing costlier and slow down housing markets, they also open favorable opportunities in financial products like annuities. In other words, annuities are back and stronger than ever before!
Ethical Capital's Sloane Ortel marshals the data to counter the arguments against aggressively fighting climate change laid out in Larry Siegel's recent article.
Head fake is a trading term, too. Some bit of information convinces investors a market is going to move a certain way. They reposition their portfolios accordingly… just in time to find out the information was wrong. Oof.
Investors including JPMorgan Asset Management, M&G Investments and Aviva Investors say they seized on the retreat in riskier assets at the start of the month to bolster their holdings of emerging-market bonds.
The recent rebound in US tech stocks isn’t convincing options traders just yet.
This year’s presentation by Chair Jerome Powell is eagerly awaited due to the economic fluidity and financial volatility that the US has been experiencing, and its spillovers to the rest of the world.
Decisions made by the Treasury get much less attention than those made by the Federal Reserve, but they can be even more consequential for interest rates — and the entire US economy.
Just as bond traders grow more assured that inflation is finally under control, a camp of investors is quietly building up protection against the risk of a future spike in prices.
U.S. consumer-price gains eased to 2.9% in July—the lowest increase since 2021
Unfortunately, when it comes to the government, what’s old is sometimes new again.
Powell will hint at normalizing monetary policy, but at a measured pace.
The current economic landscape is fraught with uncertainty, and the potential for higher inflation continues to pose a real threat to market stability.
June’s rate of inflation showed, for the first time in several years, an important slowdown in shelter costs, something that economists, us included, have been expecting for a very long time but had not materialized.
Markets were recently rattled by concerns the U.S. may slip into recession, but it's not clear that those fears are justified.
Most DC plan participants pursue retirement readiness unassisted, but few grasp what’s required, according to our latest survey.
Texas Instruments Inc. is set to receive $1.6 billion in Chips Act grants and $3 billion in loans, the Biden administration announced Friday, marking the latest major award from a program designed to boost American semiconductor manufacturing.
Emerging-market stocks rallied on Friday, driven by tech companies in Asia, following US data which boosted investor optimism that the world’s biggest economy will avoid a recession.
Earlier this year, around the time Nvidia Corp.’s market cap eclipsed that of the entire S&P 500 energy sector, I wrote about whether oil and gas stocks might offer a decent hedge when AI-fever breaks. The past several weeks have offered a test.
Portfolio Manager Jeremy Sutch, CFA, and Chief Investment Officer Sean Taylor assess the issues besetting the region’s key markets—from domestic challenges to geopolitical headwinds—as well as their structural strengths, and whether prospects may brighten with the onset of a U.S. rate-cutting cycle.
New-home construction in the US fell in July to the lowest level since the aftermath of the pandemic as builders respond to weak demand that’s keeping inventory levels high.
At the end of next year, most of the provisions of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 are set to expire. If nothing is done, taxes will go up. Both presidential contenders say they won’t let this happen and have promised to extend many or most of the law’s changes.
BlackRock Inc. says the market for blended finance has now reached a “turning point,” as it targets growth in deals that combine private and public funding.
Value has been in a protracted slump versus growth for years, but it’s been undergoing something of a makeover during that time.
In a part of the US market for exchange-traded funds that has become known for increasingly risky products, a new offering has debuted that stands out in the crowd.
A popular yen-centered carry trade that blew up spectacularly two weeks ago is staging a comeback.
Quant traders at Man Group Plc are betting that unlocking the secrets of private markets will give them an edge in trading public stocks.
With US equities on the rebound, this summer’s selloff is looking more like a pause in the bull market than the beginning of its end.
When US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speaks at next week’s annual economic conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, people will be listening intently for any hint about what the central bank will do with interest rates at its September policy making meeting.
If rising layoffs and weakening consumption are going to snowball into a US recession at some point, my interpretation is that the mass of macroeconomic ice crystals is still only about the size of a marble.
Because there is unprecedented use of the word “unprecedented,” we thought it appropriate to expand our annual Charts for the Beach from 5 charts to 10 charts and tables this year. So, probably best to stay under the beach umbrella as you read our unprecedented extended edition.
GMO has posted a new 7-Year Asset Class Forecast.
The recent U.S. Treasury yield rally is compared to a similar rally in Q4 2023, driven by expectations of a shift in Federal Reserve policy.
Stocks that offer artificial intelligence have been the hot ticket in the stock market – seeing their prices surge – many to astronomical heights.
As much as my two-pronged dividend strategy works in all markets, we still need to acknowledge that politics influences the market. Sometimes it’s a tangible impact like big swings in the price of oil. Other times it’s just investor sentiment moving the market.
Advisors are offering customized holistic wealth management to their clients and their families to help ensure an orderly transition of wealth
It’s a good time to check on consumer health.
We manage risk within our strategic, long-term allocations based on diversification across equity, fixed income, and alternative assets.
The BlackRock Flexible Income ETF (BINC) launched less than 15 months ago and is already approaching $4 billion in AUM.
Alphabet Inc. investors are facing a long period of uncertainty as they grapple with a scenario they previously saw as unlikely: a possible breakup of Google.
George Soros and Stanley Druckenmiller’s investment firms trimmed their holdings in “Magnificent Seven” stocks before this year’s ebullient run-up in technology companies gave way to a major downturn in mid-July.
Is private equity a problem? To what extent could this class of investment funds, which manages almost $9 trillion worldwide on behalf of everyone from wealthy individuals to California teachers, cause or propagate the next financial crisis?
The inflation numbers this week — both for producer and consumer prices — have served to reassure markets in two distinct ways: confirming continued progress in the battle against high price increases and supporting the ongoing shift in the Federal Reserve’s focus from its inflation mandate to its employment mandate.
Warren Buffett’s longtime business partner Charlie Munger brought quality to value investing. Now Buffett is bringing value to quality investing.
Your portfolio can be the key to managing cash and maintaining flexibility.
For years, the emphasis within fixed income investing has been to seek security-specific alpha in an illiquid bond market where no single security significantly impacts portfolio returns.
