The Treasury market received a reprieve in September when the White House and Congress agreed on legislation coupling hurricane relief funding with a suspension of the debt ceiling until Dec. 8. The agreement puts off a potentially contentious political debate and keeps the government funded until at least year-end.

Actively managed front-end strategies may be able to mitigate the erosion of real capital experienced in passive benchmarks as rates rise.

For nearly 25 years, the EU has held together despite challenges from bankrupt institutions, separatist movements and members with widely divergent economic prospects. But that cohesion is being tested, according to Albert Edwards, by countries that are losing their competitiveness. But his greater concern is the impact the Fed-induced credit bubble will have on the markets.

Growth accelerated in Q3, with inflation quiescent in most countries; perpetuating the “Goldilocks” conditions that have generally favored risk assets since early 2009. Global equity markets continued their gallop in Q3, with the MSCI ACWI and the S&P 500 reaching all-time highs.

Unprecedented changes are reshaping the financial advice industry and affecting portfolio construction for individual investors. New regulation, technological innovation, capital market trends and the prospect of lower future returns are all exerting profound effects.

After a relatively quiet third quarter, bond markets are ripe for some volatility and bigger waves as major central banks begin to unwind quantitative easing. For global bond investors, that could lead to new opportunities. But for now, with valuations in many sectors stretched, it pays to be selective.

The governing coalition of Abe’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and the smaller Komeito Party staged a big win in the snap election. Although recent public polls indicated a victory, the final tally was on the higher side of consensus expectations, including ours.

Money is a vital life enhancer. If you have it, you can enjoy life incomparably more than if you don’t. The great storehouses of travel, leisure, rest, refinement, appearance, health, above all, peace of mind – all of these are open to you if you have money.

Though the seething pits of humanity at the New York Stock Exchange and Chicago Mercantile Exchange, with their traders all shouting at each other, are largely things of the past, that is still what markets basically are: a bunch of people shouting different things. A market price is the price at which the same amount of people are buying as are selling.

Potential implications of Prime Minister Abe’s convincing win.

Rick Rieder and Russ Brownback argue that while cramming for finals may have worked in college, it won’t with the winding down of the global central bank policy liquidity “semester.”

It remains a decidedly risk-on environment. Interest rates are higher, the dollar is higher and the stock market is higher. The positives for higher equity prices are the liquidity coming from global central bankers, the potential for the repatriation of offshore corporate cash...

I don’t want to be glib, but our educational system is largely a failure in producing children and young adults ready for the future. Why we would think that more of that would be useful? What we need to do is completely rethink the whole concept of what we call education.

Even in the face of rising US interest rates over the past year, corporate credit has been resilient, particularly in the high-yield category. Ed Perks, executive vice president and chief investment officer, Franklin Templeton Multi-Asset Solutions, takes a look at the corporate credit landscape and says fixed income investors still have plenty of reasons to be positive about the asset class.

My keynote address on Tuesday focused on quant investing in gold mining and the booming initial coin offering (ICO) market. I’m thrilled to share with you that the presentation was voted the best, for which I was awarded an ounce of gold. I want to thank the London Bullion Market Association, its members and conference attendees for this honor.

Dan Fuss has established himself as one of the most respected bond investors in the industry over his 60-year tenure. In a talk last week, Fuss warned investors of geopolitical uncertainty and higher rates in credit markets.

The relative performance of emerging markets has been unremarkable over the past decade, however meaningful changes have taken place in the fundamental and financial construct of the asset class that are relevant for asset allocators. Most notably, the composition of the index has seen dramatic shifts in sector, country, and stock constituents...

Emerging markets debt and equity have many overlapping traits, but also differ in their exposure to countries and risks. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index contains 27 countries, with the five largest accounting for 70% of market value. Three countries in Asia - China, South Korea and Taiwan - comprise more than 50% of the index.

Recent data have supported our view that the drivers of the US economy’s solid expansion remain in place, and should allow the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to move further toward its goal of normalizing interest rates. Some data releases have clearly been skewed by the recent major hurricanes, but we feel any negative impact on the economy is likely to be transient and outweighed by demand arising from reconstruction.

The modest growth rate is contributing to the length of the current economic expansion, and American households are in the best financial shape in years. Our 3Q17 Quarterly Update report discusses the economic expansion and its impact on equities, fixed income, and more.

The European Central Bank is widely expected to announce a winding down of its quantitative easing program on October 26. Though investors are nervous, the ECB is doing a good job preparing markets for the change.

When world leaders talk, markets react. And with social media becoming mainstream, politicians have a new way of getting their message to the masses.

Momentum is one of the most compelling factors in theoretical long–short paper portfolios, but live results of momentum strategies fall short of theoretical returns. Thoughtful implementation, a careful sell discipline, and an avoidance of stocks with stale momentum can narrow the gap between paper and live results.

What should fixed income investors expect in 2018? In this white paper, Mary Ellen Stanek, CFA, shares Baird Advisors’ annual investment outlook, makes a case for “lower and longer” economic growth, and identifies headwinds that could present challenges for market participants in the new year.

The reports of the coming economic demise continue to prove premature. For much of the past few years, we have filled these pages with our data-driven retort to the constant noise about the next impending economic and market downturn.

I first became aware of Frederick “Shad” Rowe, captain of Dallas-based Greenbrier Partners, by reading his brilliant comments in Forbes magazine decades ago. While Shade no longer writes for Forbes, his stock market insights are available via his monthly letter to the clients in his investment partnership.

US economic activity is picking up, and as a result, we’ve raised our growth forecasts for 2017 and 2018. What’s behind the good news—and how will it impact interest rates?

Value stocks have started to show signs of life. Russ discusses why energy and financial stocks are currently the best ways to play the theme.

Current market valuations are consistent with negative expected returns for the S&P 500 over the coming 10-12 years, with a likely market loss of more than -60% in the interim.

This Strategic Insight discusses how to bolster tax revenue by increasing potential growth and productivity through tax and spending reform to enhance global competitiveness and increase fairness across taxpayers, thus turn fiscal deficits into surplus. Various guiding principles outlined suggest various proven ways to achieve these objectives.

Last Month in Perspective: The convoy of developed world central banks reducing policy accommodation appeared to gather steam. Global political developments continued to capture headlines. Interest rates moved higher on the hawkish tilt in central bank rhetoric, and equities gained on generally positive economic data.

As many of you know, copper is often seen as an indicator of economic health, historically falling when overall manufacturing and construction is in contraction mode, rising in times of expansion. That appears to be the case today. Currently trading above $3 a pound, “Doctor Copper” is up close to 24 percent year-to-date and far outperforming its five-year average from 2012 to 2016.

U.S. stock indices have continued to push to record highs, with little apparently able to throw them off course. The grind higher has pushed through natural disasters, the Las Vegas tragedy, domestic political failures, international political tensions, and missile tests and threats from North Korea—an ample “wall of worry” for stocks to climb.

President Trump recently announced the framework for comprehensive US tax reform. Passing the bill will not be easy, says Mona Mahajan, US investment strategist at Allianz Global Investors, but it could simplify the current tax code, increase economic growth and support the US consumer.

Tighter monetary policy in advanced economies. Stretched asset valuations. These are anxious times for income-oriented investors. But don’t worry—it’s still possible to generate income without taking on unnecessary risk.

When I talk about Indians’ well-known affinity for gold, I tend to focus on Diwali and the wedding season late in the year. Giving gifts of beautiful gold jewelry during these festivals is considered auspicious in India, and historically we’ve been able to count on prices being supported by increased demand.

The worst economic recovery of the post-war period will continue to be restrained by a consumer sector burdened by paltry income growth, a low and falling saving rate, and an increasingly restrictive Federal Reserve policy. Additionally, with the extremely high level of U.S. government debt and deteriorating fiscal situation, the economy is unlikely to benefit from any debt-financed tax changes. Finally, from a longer-term perspective, the recent natural disasters are an additional constraint on economic growth.

Throughout history banks have been at the epicenter of every financial crisis. That notoriety of failure led to the formation of Central Banks. In the wake of the 2008 financial crisis, global banks have repaired and strengthened their balance sheets, especially in the U.S.

Shakes off bad news and listens to good news! That’s how the past two weeks have been since the “melt up” began.

The unique attributes of corporate crossover bonds may offer solutions for investors assessing a range of objectives and risks.

2008 may have generationally scarred investor psychology. As a result, many continue to disavow the current bull market and instead heed warnings of an impending bear market. We argue that fundamentals remain strong and the global equity markets are rife with opportunity.

The bulk of U.S. stock gains in this long-running bull market are due to one variable: the expansion of the price-to-earnings ratio.

I offer a probability-based framework that captures the true nature of investment reward and risk.

For 23 years DALBAR, Inc. has been publishing a research report reaching the conclusion, year after year, that investors underperform the investment vehicles that they invest in due to “poor investor decision making.” Wade Pfau recently discovered, however, that this conclusion is the result of a serious calculation error. Now, using Pfau’s results, I will prove that the evidence actually shows that investors do not underperform their investments.

Current market valuations are consistent with negative expected returns for the S&P 500 over the coming 10-12 years, with a likely market loss of more than -60% in the interim. The proposition that “lower interest rates justify higher valuations” has become a rather dangerous slogan, and is a distressingly incomplete statement that ignores the other half of the sentence: “provided that the stream of expected cash flows is held constant.”

Yet this is not the mood in which bull markets typically end. Central banks around the world have purchased approximately $15 trillion of financial assets since the great crisis. Outside of the U.S., the BOJ and ECB are still buying.

If we think of expected return as the likeliest long-term “destination” of our investment portfolio, we can then think of risk as the uncertainty in the “journey” to that destination. Advisors serve their clients well by helping them understand the many paths that journey can take, and by establishing a plan of action (or inaction!) for when shortfalls inevitably occur.

I don’t think for a second that cryptocurrencies will ever replace gold, for a number of reasons. For one, cryptos are strictly forms of currency, whereas gold has many other time-tested applications, from jewelry to dentistry to electronics.

In what was a surprisingly quiet quarter for the Treasury market, TIPS outperformed straight Treasurys. According to my calculations, TIPS on average earned 0.9 percent in the 2017 third quarter compared to 0.6 percent for straight Treasurys.

The macro data from the past month continues to mostly point to positive growth. On balance, the evidence suggests the imminent onset of a recession is unlikely.