Economic trends clearly point toward higher inflation and interest rates ahead, which will likely make capital markets more volatile. Based on recent headlines, politics seems likely to add fuel to this fire.
As the European Central Bank (ECB) moves to reduce monetary stimulus to the euro area, it’s treading cautiously to avoid rattling currency or bond markets in the process. Bond purchases will be scaled back next year, but QE won’t be reversed.
The European Central Bank is widely expected to announce a winding down of its quantitative easing program on October 26. Though investors are nervous, the ECB is doing a good job preparing markets for the change.
A decade ago, we got the first warnings that the US subprime crisis would go global. Since then, monetary policy has pushed deep into unconventional territory. How will it respond as the backdrop begins to look more “normal”?
Economic insecurity, social insecurity and political ineffectiveness: these developments have fed a resurgence of populist policies in many regions of the world. We think there’s potential for major impacts on global capital markets.
Populism is here—and it isn’t going away. The ideology can come from either side of the political spectrum, and it can have a big impact on policy, the macroeconomic landscape and—ultimately—how we invest today.
Financial markets will welcome the election of centrist, pro-European Emmanuel Macron as France’s next president. Now that Europe has avoided a major political upset, all eyes will be on the ECB and its next move.
Financial markets welcomed the result of the first round of the French elections on Sunday. Yet voting patterns and the political reality facing the next French president leave much to ponder.
British Prime Minister Theresa May has called a snap election on June 8. With only a slim majority in parliament, she hopes to strengthen her position ahead of complex Brexit negotiations.
Britain’s divorce from the EU is underway, but the complex negotiating process has just begun. We believe a mutually beneficial deal can be reached—as long as both sides focus on the risks of failure.