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Will Voters Force Lawmakers to Loosen the Purse Strings?
With stocks soaring after Mario “Whatever It Takes” Draghi’s latest comments, it’s clear markets still like easy money from central banks, says US Investment Strategist Kristina Hooper. But fiscal stimulus induces spending more directly—and voters might start demanding it.
Conditions Remain Uneven, but Equities Again Charge Higher
Equity markets climbed for the third consecutive week, with the S&P 500 Index gaining 2.1%.1 Much of the strength came from additional signs of easing from the European and Chinese central banks. Corporate earnings were mixed, with some health care and retail industries coming under pressure, while the technology sector provided impressive results. Overall, however, the majority of companies reported better-than-expected earnings results, which added to improved market sentiment.
Retirees: I Did Not Buy IBM to Sell, It’s About The Dividend Income Stupid
by Chuck Carnevale of F.A.S.T. Graphs,
There are many investing strategies and principles that retired investors can utilize to reduce the risk associated with investing in equities (stocks) for their retirement portfolios. Choosing to invest in the highest quality stocks your mind can conceive sits at the top of the list. There are many components that investors can analyze and examine to determine whether a company is high quality or not.
How to Build a Vision Statement That Guides and Inspires
by Kristen Luke,
You would not get into a cab without knowing your destination. Employees and partners are no different. A clear, concise vision statement will remove the fear and confusion of working without a purpose, and inspire your team and allies to move toward one, unified objective.
International Economic Week in Review: Analysts Converge, Edition
by Hale Stewart,
Normally, analysts’ projections diverge somewhat around a statistical norm. That is, it’s usual for a group of 40 analysts to project the upcoming quarterly GDP growth rate between 1% and 3%. Currently, however, there is a fair degree of uniformity among analysts regarding the outlook. And that’s not a good sign.
Someone Is Spending Your Pension Money
by John Mauldin of Mauldin Economics,
We are going to talk about the slow-motion train wreck now taking shape in pension funds that is going to put pressure on many people who think they have retirement covered. Please feel free to forward this to those who might be expecting their pension funds to cover them for the next 30 or 40 years. Cutting to the chase, US pension funds are seriously underfunded and may need an extra $10 trillion in 20 years. This is a somewhat controversial letter, but I like to think I’m being realistic. Or at least I’m trying.
Inspiration from the World of Sports
An angle on the investing/sports analogy has occurred to me: an investment career can feel like a basketball or football game with an unlimited number of quarters. We may be nearing December 31 with a substantial year-to-date return or a big lead over our benchmarks or competitors, but when January 1 rolls around, we have to tackle another year. Our record isn’t finalized until we leave the playing field for good. Or as Yogi Berra put it, “It ain’t over till it’s over.” It was Yogi’s passing in late September that inspired this memo.
A Bond-Free Portfolio: Why Cash Should Replace Bonds to Reduce Risk and Improve Returns
by Kendall Anderson of Anderson Griggs,
In a recent interview, Howard Marks, the great investor and co-chairman of Oaktree Capital, quoted the original Dr. Doom, Henry Kaufman, who once said “There are two kinds of people who lose money: those who know nothing and those who know everything.” Those of us who are selling investment services, whether portfolio management or investment products, have a tremendous ability to locate or create research that rationalizes our approach to building and maintaining a portfolio.
Reshuffling the Deck in the Mideast
by John Browne of Euro Pacific Capital,
The U.S. presence in the Middle East, which for years provided some control over one of the world’s most volatile regions, appears to have dissolved into chaos. By removing Saddam Hussein from power, the U.S. removed his tyrannical but stabilizing hand from the powder keg that always existed in the poorly designed nation state of Iraq. Rather than attempting to repair the damage, President Obama appears intent on leaving what he terms “a quagmire.”
India: Interest Rates, Inflation and Manufacturing Ambitions
We have high hopes for India’s future, so we remain quite interested in India and continue to seek out investment bargains there. We are looking to diversify our exposure to Indian equities through a mix of commodities-oriented, export-oriented and domestic companies.
Tracking the Market with Social Media
by Blair Jensen of Trade Followers,
Last week the market broke through the September high which was the first level of minor resistance on the Twitter stream. Now there are two major resistance levels in the way for the S&P 500 Index (SPX). 2040 was the breaking point of a sideways range during the first of the year. It is now getting the most tweets which makes it major resistance. Just above that is 2060 where the 200 day moving average comes into play. At the least we should expect some consolidation in the 2040 to 2060 area. This would be healthy for the market to shake out some weak holders.
Yieldcos or Yieldnos?
by Roger Nusbaum of AdvisorShares,
A little over a year ago we looked at a new income vehicle called a yieldco which was highlighted in Barron’s. Over the weekend Barron’s provided an update on the still small niche and basically they’ve had a rough go in the last three or four months although I should note that for the six months prior they were white hot. Along the way GlobalX listed a fund that tracks the space and although not charted below it has also gone down considerably in the last few months.
Back to the Present
by Jeffrey Saut of Raymond James,
On Wednesday of this week (10/21/15), residents of Hill Valley, California are warned to be on the lookout for a flying DeLorean driven by a guy in a white lab coat with crazy hair, and a squeaky-voiced “teen” wearing several layers of out-of-style clothes. If these two are spotted, it is HIGHLY advised that you do not interact with them at all, as doing so could ultimately unravel the very fabric of the space-time continuum. More specifically, whatever you do, please refrain from relinquishing any copy of the Gray’s Sports Almanac (1950-2000 Edition) that you may possess.
Connecting with the Internet of Things
We now see a trend where smart devices can connect to one another and share data, allowing them to perform new and exciting tasks. We believe the explosion of such connected devices will significantly change the way individuals and businesses operate on a daily basis.
Chart Toppers: Diversification, China and the Fed’s Dual Mandate
by Liz Ann Sonders of Charles Schwab,
From time to time, instead of diving into a singular topic in these reports, I am going to do a“Chart Toppers” review, where I share some of the more interesting and relevant charts I’ve put together or seen on a variety of topics.
The Rally Continues, but Equities Appear Stuck in a Trading Range
Equity markets continued to advance last week, with the S&P 500 Index
climbing 0.9%. Third quarter earnings results were mixed, and investors
focused on stabilization in China and the upside of the Federal Reserve
holding rates steady. The utilities sector was the best-performing, while
industrials lagged.
Is it Worth the Effort to Improve Your Referral Skills?
We have yet another coach working with our advisory firm to help us with referrals. As it is, I get more referrals than anyone on our seven-person team, but I am forced to participate in these activities. Is there a way for me to gracefully back out of this coaching or explain to him why I don’t think I need to participate?
The “Age” Age
by John Mauldin of Mauldin Economics,
As I mentioned in last week’s letter, I traveled to San Francisco last Monday with my friend Patrick Cox, who writes our Transformational Technology Alert newsletter. We had dinner with Dr. Mike West of Biotime and then spent the next morning at the Buck Institute for Research on Aging. Pat and I decided we would jointly report on what we learned.
Weekly Market Summary
by Urban Carmel of The Fat Pitch,
Equities have risen 8% off their lows. Price is now near the prior trading range from which the waterfall collapse began in August. It would be normal to see selling pressure increase, as trapped longs finally achieve breakeven. But fund managers are overweight cash; they’ll want to be more fully invested before year-end. Upward momentum is therefore likely to prevail in the months ahead.
Zero Yields & The Debt Ceiling
by Anthony Valeri of LPL Financial,
The Treasury issued new three-month Treasury bills (T-bills) at 0% yield at auction last week and is on pace to do so again on October 13, 2015. Zero percent T-bill yields, or even lower, are not new, but 0% prevailing at an auction is unusual and made media headlines.
Tocqueville Gold Strategy Investor Letter Third Quarter 2015
Financial market turmoil has been what was needed to rekindle investment interest in gold, as we have argued in our investor letters this year. The onset of a bear market is what we envisioned in making this statement. A preliminary glimpse of what is what is needed to turn the tide for the gold market occurred in the 3rd quarter with a sharp decline in all global equity markets. On a year to date basis, most of the leading stock market averages are now in the red.
South Africa’s Sporting and Economic Scorecard
Dubbed the “rainbow nation” after the end of apartheid in 1994, South Africa had much to be hopeful about. In 2010, it achieved heightened recognition among investors when it became the fifth member of the “BRICS” grouping of emerging market economies, along with Brazil, Russia, India and China. While its economy and demographics differ from other BRIC countries, it has one thing in common with Brazil, Russia and China: It has hosted major global sporting events over the years. South Africa hosted the FIFA World Cup five years ago, and it hosted and won the Rugby World Cup 20 years ago
Catalonia, a New State within Europe?
“Catalonia, a new state within Europe” is the slogan of the pro-independence movement in the Spanish region of Catalonia. The federal government has made it clear that it will not hold secession negotiations and, in fact, even holding an independence referendum is considered unconstitutional. This week, we look at the separatist movement in Catalonia, starting with a brief overview of the region’s history and politics. We explore the probability of independence, the potential future relationship between the region and the central government, and the roles of the EU and the Eurozone.
Upcoming Debt Ceiling Fight Could Get Really Ugly
Here we go again – another debt ceiling battle will play out between now and November 5 when the Treasury says it will run out of “extraordinary measures” to fund the government without exceeding the current debt limit of just over $18 trillion. If the debt ceiling is not increased, the US government will default on its debt.
Emerging Market Debt: An End to the Agony?
Capitulation by many EMD investors has created opportunities in many of the more resilient countries. We favor countries moving down the reform path and where there is significant impetus to reign in excessive government spending. Valuations have reached the extremes that allow a selective approach to EM to now represent a key part of an income-oriented portfolio.
International Economic Week in Review: Now the IMF Lowers Growth Projections, Edition
by Hale Stewart,
This week, it was the IMFs turn to downgrade their global growth projections, which they did on October 6: The IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook (WEO) foresees lower global growth compared to last year, with modest pickup in advanced economies and a slowing in emerging markets, primarily reflecting weakness in some large emerging economies and oil-exporting countries.
Bob Zenouzi Discusses Delaware’s Dividend Income Fund
by Robert Huebscher,
In this interview, Bob Zenouzi, manager of the Delaware Dividend Income Fund (DDIAX), discusses how he strives to provide investors with a yield that is competitive with fixed income, while achieving a premium yield to equities with better downside protection.
Is the Biotech Pullback a Buying Opportunity?
Fundamentally, the outlook for biotech is as strong as ever. Drug price controls are unlikely to happen for the next decade despite the political rhetoric. Political pressure combined with crowded quant positions and fund liquidations have created buying opportunities in biotech.
Why the Finance Industry is Destroying America’s Economy
by Michael Edesess,
According to a Harvard study, the percentage of GDP attributable to the financial industry tripled from 1950 to the 2000s. The percentage attributable to asset management alone increased by more than a factor of ten just since 1980. Has any of this increase improved the services rendered by the financial services industry to the real economy? If it hasn’t, why not? If the increase in activity has in fact been harmful rather than beneficial, what can be done about it?
How these 12 TPP Nations Could Forever Change Global Growth
The current members include Canada, the United States, Mexico, Peru, Chile, Japan, Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei, Singapore, Australia and New Zealand.After nearly seven years of negotiations, the TPP promises to deliver unprecedented free and fair global trade among the 12 participant nations.
Fourth Quarter Comeback?
A disappointing year to this point for the US stock market has a chance to end on a better note, with good seasonality and a still-growing economy as supports. Consumers are in good shape, the Fed remains accommodative, and the much-larger service side of the US economy is still healthy. But Fed uncertainty, Congressional budget battles, and Chinese growth concerns will remain as headwinds and will likely contribute to continued bouts of volatility. Across the pond, the European fight against deflation appears to be working, although more QE may be needed, to the potential benefit of Europe/
Rainmakers
The onslaught of financial events in the past several months created massive confusion and uncertainty in the global financial markets. Much of the confusion revolves around economic factors - interest rates, currency, energy prices and growth policy. Several economic factors are influenced by policy makers and central banks. Our goal this month is to slice through the confusion and find direction for the remaining months of 2015.
China and the Fed
The third quarter of 2015 was marked by significant losses in capital values and an increase in volatility. The S&P 500 lost 7.55% in the quarter and 6.71% year-to-date; NASDAQ dropped 7.77% quarterly and 2.26% for the year; Dow Jones Industrial average declined 8.15% in the quarter and 8.68% year-to-date. The VIX fear measure closed the quarter at 24.50, an increase of 42.6% since the beginning of the quarter and 37.7% since the beginning of the year.
Investing Through Volatility: Finding Opportunities in a Slow-Growth Environment
We continue to believe the U.S. stock market is in a reset period, as investors contemplate the prospect of slowing global economic growth, mixed messages from the Fed (potential tightening) and the continued easing from other central banks (Japan, China and the ECB). Market participants seem concerned about the central banks’ inability to manufacture inflation after several years of near-zero interest rates. These concerns have resulted in higher volatility, catching many investors off guard.
Weighing the Week Ahead: What is Behind the Recent Market Volatility?
The recent market volatility has led to a lot of head scratching. Even the Pundit-in-Chief seems to be struggling to make his daily morning and evening observations fit with observed reality. With a light economic calendar and earnings reports just getting started market observers will be asking:
What’s the cause of the market volatility?
Results 7,551–7,600
of 10,168 found.
