As we enter 2018, the macro environment remains supportive for fixed income markets. However, with full valuations and diminished monetary policy support, the margin for error is razor thin as fixed income investors identify potential risks.Voya Investment Management's CIO of Fixed Income, Matt Toms, CFA breaks down the major themes of 2018 and discusses the key market trends that are likely to lead to a return of volatility.
The constructive conditions for the US economy remain in place, in our view, in keeping with an increasingly solid expansion across the rest of the world. US consumers have been benefiting from an economy that appears close to full employment and a stock market at record levels, while a vibrant corporate sector has been buoyed further by recent tax changes.
We believe the US economy’s current combination of moderately strong growth and low inflation is likely to see a further slow-but-steady tightening of monetary policy, following the confirmation by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) at its December meeting of a widely expected interest-rate rise.
The economic backdrop has remained supportive, both in the United States and globally, and should allow the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to continue raising interest rates at a measured pace, in our view. Jerome Powell’s nomination as Fed chair points to continuity in monetary policy in the near term...
Nearly 10 years after its unprecedented response to the 2008 crisis, the Fed is finally making plans to unwind $4 trillion of fixed income investments. Other global central banks are not far behind. From interest rates to credit spreads and defaults, the impact of these actions will reach all corners of the fixed income market. Matt Toms Fixed Income CIO for Voya Investment Management will discuss: • Pitfalls and risks in the current fixed income market; • Overlooked opportunities; and • What investors should consider when building fixed income portfolios to navigate this uncharted environment.
Matt will answer attendees’ questions during the session and will be available to continue the discussion on APViewpoint.
What’s an investor to do, when faced with a Fed that’s gearing up to raise rates? Many investors over the past year have poured money into bank loans, in hopes of finding a panacea. Unfortunately, the bank loan market is not what it seems.
Recent data have supported our view that the drivers of the US economy’s solid expansion remain in place, and should allow the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to move further toward its goal of normalizing interest rates. Some data releases have clearly been skewed by the recent major hurricanes, but we feel any negative impact on the economy is likely to be transient and outweighed by demand arising from reconstruction.
It’s not normal. When a fixed-income sector beats the S&P 500 over an extended period and by a meaningful amount, investors do a double take.
The issues that have dominated news cycles in recent weeks should not obscure the robust underlying fundamentals of the US economy, in our view. Though some short-term weather-related disruption is possible, the economy seems to be maintaining its path of moderately strong growth, aided by healthy contributions from consumer spending and business investment.
What shouldn’t you do as the Federal Reserve tightens policy? You shouldn’t be passive. Passive muni investors suffer from the painful phenomenon of clipped wings. That’s when passive strategies can’t rapidly reinvest in higher-yielding securities as rates climb, unlike their more nimble, actively investing cousins.