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Has the Brexit Sell-Off Created an Entry Point?
by Matt Peden of Invesco,
In the lead-up to the referendum on the UK’s continued membership in the European Union (EU), certain British bookmakers were offering strong odds on bets the UK would opt to exit, anticipating an approximate 25% probability of a leave win. At the same time, both sides were running neck-and-neck in the polls, rationally implying around a 50% chance of a leave vote result. This is an obvious example of a mispriced bet.
These Are the Only Dividend Aristocrats I Would Consider Today
by Chuck Carnevale of F.A.S.T. Graphs,
Generally speaking, the overall stock market is fully valued at best, and in many cases significantly overvalued. Therefore, it is very challenging to find sound and attractive stocks to invest in today. The challenge to find good value today is even more pronounced for the prudent dividend growth investor. Low interest rates and a flight to quality have driven the prices of best-of-breed dividend growth stocks to unprecedented highs.
What's Ahead for the U.K. & Europe?
by John Canally of LPL Financial,
Following the United Kingdom’s (U.K.) decision to leave the European Union (EU) in a referendum held on June 23, 2016, there are still many questions regarding the future of the U.K.’s relationship with the EU and other impacts throughout Europe.
Greenspan, Gold, and the Banality of Evil
Under certain circumstances, seemingly decent human beings are capable of horrific things. So it is with Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan, who parlayed his sound money bona fides into the top post at America’s private banking cartel and current issuer of our un-backed currency.
USD Is Overvalued Against the Pound, Yen and Euro
by Eric Bush of GaveKal Capital,
According to our Currency Purchasing Power Parity Diffusion Index, the dollar is overvalued against nine major country currencies while it is undervalued against nine other major country currencies. So our diffusion index shows a relatively mundane reading of zero. However, three of the countries that the dollar is overvalued against are pretty significant: the pound, yen and euro.
Schwab Market Perspective: Looking Beyond Britain
For the past couple of weeks the financial markets have been dominated by the results of a vote from a country that represents roughly 4% of world gross domestic product (GDP) according to the World Bank, and roughly 0.9% of the world population according to Trading Economics. It’s certainly not insignificant but does put some things in context. Financial markets, after a violent reaction to the shock of the vote for the U.K. to exit the European Union (EU), are putting a little context around Brexit’s aftermath as financial instruments have rebounded and shown stability in recent days. Uncertainty regarding economic growth in the U.K. and the rest of Europe will likely be with us for the foreseeable future, adding another reason for volatility to remain elevated, but that doesn’t mean investors should hide in a corner until things become more certain.
Breaking up Is Hard to Do
As the financial markets adjust to the aftershocks of the historic U.K. referendum vote, spectators aren’t the only ones left scratching their heads. After the referendum, financial markets have begun to adjust, moving beyond the initial emotional response. So, as the dust begins to settle, many are left asking, “Now what?”
Indian Banks—An Attractive Secular Growth Story
Despite meaningful progress over the last four years, large chunks of the Indian population remain unbanked. The total number of unbanked Indians stood at 233 million in 2015, down from 557 million in 2011. That’s more than the populations of Germany, the United Kingdom and France combined.
Stock Markets Erase Brexit Losses: Is the Fallout Already Behind Us?
Nigel Farage toiled for 17 years building a movement to lead the United Kingdom out of the European Union. A week ago, he stood in front hundreds of drab bureaucrats in the EU Assembly, most of whom have done little but snicker at his free-market ideals, and declared victory. He told them, quite plausibly, their political union is dying – and good riddance!
A Top-Performing Multi-Asset ESG Income Fund
by Robert Huebscher,
Martin Wildy is portfolio manager of the Eventide Multi-Asset Income Fund. Martin has more than 10 years of experience as a portfolio manager and analyst, building sustainable portfolios of companies in the tech, banking, real estate, and other sectors. His fund actively invests in green bonds, “yieldcos” and MLPs. I spoke with Martin on June 24.
Here Is Why You Shouldn’t Benchmark Your Portfolio
When markets begin to decline, particularly after extremely long periods of advances, there is a rush by the media and financial bloggers to proclaim “patience.” These claims are generally accompanied by advice to just “hold on” to investments and ride out the volatility over the long-term. After all, the index always rises, right?
Streamers: A River of Gold – Part 2
In May we laid out the case that a new cyclical bull market in gold had begun - Win-Win Case for a Bull Market in Gold – Part 1. As an advisor or individual, you may be looking for a lower risk way to invest in gold. One relatively unknown yet very attractive way we invest in gold is through precious metal royalty companies or “streamers.” These companies possess a simple and profitable business model that captures the benefits from investing in gold while minimizing the drawbacks. Streaming and royalty companies (both referred to as “streamers” in the rest of this article) provide early stage financing specifically for mine development. It may be helpful to think of them as providing venture capital or banking services to the mining industry. They receive either a royalty payment on future production or a “stream” as an exchange for an upfront cash investment. A stream is the right to purchase a percentage of future production at a very low fixed price for the life of the mine. In simple terms, streamers share in the success of mining projects without incurring any of the operating risks. Even a skeptical Mark Twain would be impressed with this novel mining investment model.
Beyond Brexit: What Happens Next?
The UK has voted to leave the European Union (EU) by a majority of 51.9% to 48.1%, and UK Prime Minister David Cameron has tendered his resignation on the back of the result. Voter turnout was very high at around 72%. While a high turnout was expected to benefit the “remain” camp, the reality appears to have been different.
Bet You Didn't See That Coming…
by Blaine Rollins of 361 Capital,
In a pickle is where the financial world now finds itself. The markets do not like uncertainty and they do not like volatility. With the U.K. voting to leave the European Union (EU) on Friday, we now have both uncertainty and volatility. As the world wonders if Brexit will lead to other EU members following the same path, we have significant confusion on so many items. Who will the new leaders of the U.K. be?
Business Startups Flock To Just 20 US Counties - Here's Why
Most of you reading this are aware that new business startups have fallen below business closures since 2008. Since records have been kept, new business startups outnumbered business closures each year, often by wide margins. But not so since the Great Recession.
Matthews Asia Perspective: Brexit
by David Dali of Matthews Asia,
The recent announcement affirming the U.K.’s vote to exit the European Union has many ramifications—many of which affect millions of people in a negative way. Some refer to Friday's announcement as a Black Swan event. Regardless of how the event is characterized, the fact is that the exact implications are largely unknown, the potential for a domino effect is real, governments and companies will need to re-think strategy and individuals will be impacted.
Brexit Reflections
by Burt White of LPL Financial,
The United Kingdom’s (U.K.) unexpected decision to leave the European Union (EU) sent markets reeling on Friday (June 24, 2016). The S&P suffered a 3.6% decline, its worst day of 2016. But that loss was muted in comparison to the 8.6% drop in Europe’s EURO STOXX 50 Index—its biggest one-day loss in 30 years—or the nearly 9% drop in the British pound versus the U.S. dollar to a 31-year low.
Austan Goolsbee on the Fed’s Broken Forecasting Model
by Justin Kermond,
Austan Goolsbee is optimistic that the long-run prospects for the U.S. economy are outstanding due to the unbounded strength of our human capital, innovation and entrepreneurialism. However, Goolsbee warned that the next 12-18 months will be bumpy and the illusive V-shaped recovery will not happen because the U.S. Federal Reserve’s forecasting model is broken.
Meeting Retirement Goals with Dimensional’s Target-Date Retirement Income Funds
by Wade Pfau,
Traditional target-date funds aren’t designed to meet a spending objective; their focus is on growing nominal account balances while also managing account balance volatility. However, a stable account balance does not necessarily translate to stable income. Dimensional Fund Advisors’ new target-date retirement income funds bridge this divide by providing a target-date fund that uses a more complete risk management framework that manages volatility of expected affordable retirement spending.
A Low-Cost Tactically Managed ETF Solution
by Robert Huebscher,
Sage Advisory Services was founded in 1996 by Robert G. Smith, III and Mark C. MacQueen with a simple mission: to better meet the unique investment management needs of institutions and individuals through industry-leading analytical services, innovative investment solutions and an unwavering focus on risk management. I spoke with Bob Smith about Sage’s strategies and how they are helping advisors achieve their clients’ investment objectives.
Brexit Breakdown
by John Canally of LPL Financial,
Financial markets reacted swiftly and sharply on Friday, June 24, 2016, to the unexpected decision by the United Kingdom (U.K.) to leave the European Union (EU) in a nationwide referendum held on June 23, 2016. Ahead of the vote, most financial market participants and political observers thought that the U.K. would vote to remain in the EU, and markets spent most of the day Friday adjusting to the reality that the U.K. will likely leave, sending equity prices lower, and bond and gold prices higher. The uncertainty in the markets, tightening financial conditions, and other potential impacts to the U.S. economy may influence the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) path of future rate hikes.
Brexit and the Bubble in Search of A Pin
by John Hussman of Hussman Funds,
First things first. While the full attention of financial market participants is focused on “Brexit” - last week’s British referendum to exit the European Union - the singular factor to recognize here is that the vulnerability of the financial markets to steep losses has very little to do with Brexit per se. Rather, years of yield-seeking speculation, encouraged by central banks, had already brought the financial markets to a precipice prior to last week’s vote.
Post-Brexit Implications for Investors
While the knee-jerk market reactions to the United Kingdom’s decision to leave the European Union (EU) fade, some longer-term ramifications could continue to create market uncertainty. Dr. Michael Hasenstab, CIO of Templeton Global Macro, provides his take on the implications of the UK’s decision to leave the EU—and what it could mean for investors.
Thinking the Unthinkable
by John Mauldin of Mauldin Economics,
I’m going to proceed to give you an updated version of my speech from one month ago at the Strategic Investment Conference. It actually has (as you will see) more relevance today than it did a month ago. We have edited the transcript so that the speech is much shorter and tighter; and of course, going back over it, I came up with a few thoughts here and there that I would like to have inserted in the original. I like this updated version better than the transcript. Like St. Paul, I guess taking the time to organize my thoughts and perform numerous edits does improve my message.
A Classic Case of Failed Socialism: What’s Next After the Brexit?
Defying sentiment polls leading up to yesterday’s historic Brexit referendum, British voters said “thanks, but no thanks” to excessive EU taxation and regulation, choosing to take back Britain’s sovereignty in financing, budgeting, immigration policy and other areas essential to a nation’s self-identity. It was a momentous victory for the “leave” camp, led by former London mayor Boris Johnson and U.K. Independence Party leader Nigel Farage, who invoked the 1990s sci-fi action film “Independence Day” by declaring June 23 “our independence day” from foreign rule.
Global Macro Imbalances and Opportunities
From a labor market perspective, we think it is hard to justify maintaining interest rates at zero or to pursue a negative-interest rate policy in the United States. We would argue the Fed should be raising rates sooner rather than later to avoid losing credibility.
The Real Risk of Brexit
Earlier this year, we presented an analysis of Brexit and discussed potential risks to the U.K. political system and economy from leaving the EU. However, there is also an under appreciated risk to the EU. The problem can be summed up in this question—what if the U.K. leaves the EU and prospers? This has the potential to be a major problem for the postwar European political environment. In this report, we discuss the role of the EU in shaping the European postwar geopolitical environment and the multiple threats Britain’s exit presents for the EU. We conclude with the impact on financial and commodity markets.
How USAA Funds is Serving Advisors
by Robert Huebscher,
USAA Investments manages over $68 billion in assets. I spoke with Karyn Bostick, director of third-party distribution, and Regina Shafer, portfolio manager of the five-star and bronze-rated USAA Tax-Exempt Intermediate-Term Bond Fund (USATX), at this year’s Morningstar conference in Chicago.
Trading Places: The Brexit, the U.K., and the EU
by Matthew Peterson of LPL Financial,
This week’s vote in the United Kingdom (U.K.) on remaining in the European Union (EU) could have significant implications for both parties. Polling data suggest that the vote will be very close, though historically, in similar situations people vote retain the status quo in greater proportions than the polling suggests.
Gundlach – Trump Will Be an Economic Success
by Robert Huebscher,
Not only will Donald Trump win the November election, but his victory will propel U.S. economic growth higher, according to Jeffrey Gundlach. Trump will fuel a debt-driven increase in government spending, which Gundlach said will push GDP growth to levels reminiscent of the Ronald Reagan era.
Imagine
by John Hussman of Hussman Funds,
Imagine the collapse of an extended speculative tech bubble, resulting in a broad economic recession. Imagine if the Federal Reserve had persistently slashed short-term interest rates during the downturn, to no avail, leaving rates at just 1% by the time the S&P 500 had lost half of its value and the Nasdaq 100 collapsed by 83%. Imagine that the Fed kept rates suppressed, in the initially well-meaning hope of encouraging lending, growth and employment. Imagine that the depressed level of interest rates made investors feel starved for yield, and drove them to look for safe alternatives to Treasury bills.
Countdown to Brexit: What You Need to Know
Given the strong economic ties between Britain and the EU, Brexit would have implications across global markets. In the event of market disruption caused by the vote, investors should keep in mind that Britain’s exit from the EU would take years to implement.
Soros: Rudimentary Theory Of Bubbles
Of the last few weeks, I have touched on the impact of valuations and forward returns. However, it is not just valuations that are an issue, but also the surge in corporate debt, balance sheet leverage combined with declining profitability which is a result of weak economic growth. All in all, such a combination of factors have historically been associated with “bear markets” in equities.
Generational Chaos Ahead
by John Mauldin of Mauldin Economics,
I’m going to do something a little different in this letter in that I’m going to borrow wholesale from Neil Howe’s speech at my conference and his voluminous writings in order to give us a view of what to expect in the next five to eight years. And given that the Brexit vote looms next week and that it’s part and parcel of what Neil is talking about, I will offer some final thoughts on Brexit. That should be enough to keep us occupied for the next few minutes.
Eurozone Secular Outlook: Europe’s Fragile Environment Spells Caution for Investors
by Nicola Mai of PIMCO,
With our baseline view of 2%–3% nominal growth over the next three to five years, Europe’s economic, fiscal, social and political environment will remain fragile. Investors should be cautious.
Results 7,001–7,050
of 10,163 found.