There is some important data on the schedule for this week, along with earnings and the expected doses of FedSpeak. None of that will attract much attention. Instead expect “all Trump, all the time”.
The election is over but some uncertainty remains, which means bouts of volatility are likely to persist. The Fed is likely to hike rates in December but uncertainty about the path of rates in 2017 will persist. Additional uncertainty may come from elections around the world, with the potential for a continuation of surprising outcomes that could rattle markets at times.
Donald Trump is a businessman who relishes the “art of the deal,” so he is by definition more of a pragmatist than a blinkered ideologue. Once in office, he will throw symbolic red meat to his blue-collar supporters, while reverting to the same supply-side, trickle-down economic policies that Republicans have favored for decades.
Franklin Templeton's Asian and European trading desk teams evaluate the aftermath of the US election in a special edition of Notes from the Trading Desk.
As the election results were confirmed late Tuesday night in the United States (around midday Wednesday in Asia), there was a pretty violent reaction in many markets and across asset classes and regions. Michael Hasenstab, CIO of Templeton Global Macro, opines on the drivers and meaning of today’s market twists and turns.
Stunned political analysts are missing the most plausible argument explaining Donald Trump's unexpected victory. The misreading of the American electorate stems from the political class' acceptance of mistaken (and increasingly insane) economic dogma that has arisen over the past generation.
As election results rolled in last night, Dow futures fell as much as 800 points. The knee jerk reaction was that a Trump victory was bad for the financial markets. We disagree. Mr. Trump has the opportunity to cut the burdens of government, which could turn the US economy from a plow horse back into a race horse.
In the movie "Saving Private Ryan," multiple brave soldiers give their lives to save one (the last-surviving of four brothers) in World War II. During a final, chaotic and riveting battle scene, Ryan is miraculously saved, but with tremendous loss of life.
A review of the month’s market-moving events across countries and asset classes.
Before I get into today’s topics, I think I speak for most Americans when I say that we are relieved that this election will finally be over late tonight or early tomorrow. This has been the ugliest and most embarrassing election in most of our lifetimes.
Aside from a few days of volatility, markets have risen steadily this year. So how should you position your portfolio in an environment where risk assets may continue to move in lockstep?
I’m starting this memo a week before Election Day. I promise to try to stay away from the merits of the candidates and the question of who will win, and instead confine myself to the important messages that we should take away from the election and the actions we should push for as a result. The outcome of tomorrow’s election won’t change these things as far as I’m concerned.
Last week saw a clear risk-off trend, as U.S. political uncertainty rose in advance of this week’s elections.
Through Friday, in spite of very good earnings reports from companies, the S&P 500 was down nine days in a row, the longest negative streak since 1980.
After significant bouncebacks in the major indicators over the past couple of months, we saw a bit of a pullback in several components of the data in October.
The macro data from the past month continues to mostly point to positive growth. On balance, the evidence suggests the imminent onset of a recession is unlikely. That said, there are some signs of weakness creeping into the data. Retail sales are at a new all-time high, but overall growth is decelerating and less than 2% real. Employment growth is also decelerating, from over 2% last year to 1.7% now. Housing starts and permits have flattened over the past year. There is nothing alarming in any of this but it is noteworthy that expansions weaken before they end, and these are signs of some weakening that bear monitoring closely.
A wave of positive economic data suggests the Chinese economy is stabilizing and that business confidence is improving. The country’s purchasing managers’ index (PMI), which measures the health of its manufacturing industry, rose to 51.2 in October, handily beating economists’ estimates of 50.3.
Time and time again, advisors say their largest challenge is managing client emotions. If clients are unhappy or anxious about their investments, they run the risk of making impulsive or emotionally fueled decisions.
The S&P 1500 notched its worst monthly return since January as investors looked ahead to the presidential election and the Fed’s last meeting in 2016.
Brazil’s trade data in October was abysmal. Exports fell 10.2% year-over-year to $13.721 billion and imports fell 15% year-over-year to $11.375 billion.
International stocks have started to outperform U.S. stocks. Russ explains what's behind the comeback and why it may continue.
When looking at various countries or regions where we invest, we consider emerging markets as representing a disproportionate amount of where equity value exists today after several years of underperformance relative to developed markets.
It’s Halloween, so what else could we do but write about what might scare the markets?
October was a pretty good month, all things considered, for economic data out of Europe. Industrial production out of Germany, Italy, France and for the Euro-Area aggregate all surprised to the upside.
Election 2016 will have consequences for the economy and financial markets. Colin Moore looks at six election issues investors need to be aware of — regardless of who wins.
Has the institution of the Nobel Prize in economics been a cause of the global economic woes of the last 20 years – its financial crises, its economic slowdowns and its increasing intra-national inequalities? In their recent book, The Nobel Factor: The Prize in Economics, Social Democracy, and the Market Turn, authors Avner Offer and Gabriel Söderberg make a good, if somewhat haphazard, case that it has.
Your goal is to make your posts show up in as many related searches as possible. Here are seven things to keep in mind to make your hashtags relevant and not annoying.
My continued impression is that the global equity markets broadly peaked in the second-quarter of 2015, and that the more recent marginal U.S. highs in August were a “throwover” in response to the post-Brexit plunge in global interest rates.
It turns out most companies are doing well, but a small group shows results so dismal that they weigh down the entire market. Worse, that group may not recover nearly as fast as some analysts think. We will see why in a little bit.
Stay calm and carry on. We believe U.S. earnings and economic growth will continue to support an ongoing bull market, but gains will likely be modest and pullbacks should be expected alongside political and monetary policy uncertainty. Globally, wage growth is picking up, but that doesn’t have to mean bad news for profits.
Investors have become very concerned about excessive debt in the US. The worry is that current leverage has risen so rapidly and become so extreme that the economy is at imminent risk of a crisis. Is this concern valid?
Be it how hedge fund returns have been struggling over the past year or how index funds have been gaining some traction, there has seemed to be much in the financial media over the past few weeks about the challenges facing active management.
Recently, I have been engaged in rather intense discussions regarding the validity of P/E ratios versus PEG ratios as proper or appropriate valuation metrics. I generally find these types of debates befuddling for a couple of reasons.
Markets are once again facing a proverbial wall of worry, built of political uncertainty, populism, and fiscal and monetary policy concerns. Although the market’s ascent is not likely to be straight up (it never is), we are cautiously optimistic that the wall can be surmounted.
Robert Reich, a prominent Democrat, and Alan Simpson, a distinguished Republican, engaged in a friendly debate to discuss issues that they said were not addressed during this campaign season. But on crucial subjects, both relied on out-of-date and inaccurate reasoning.
The purpose of this article is to make the case for a primary trend rise in yields. If this assumption turns out to be correct, it is within the realm of possibilities that this same rally may also be a turn in the tide for the initial advance in a new, very long-term or secular uptrend.
The Fed will raise rates in December, as long as the election goes as expected and there are no surprises in the economic data, according to Rick Rieder. But, according to Rieder there are secular influences in the economy that are much more important than monetary policy.
Understanding asset class correlation patterns is key to understanding true portfolio risk factor exposures and the embedded assumptions that inform investment decisions.
The post-election outlook has investors questioning the state of the global economy, volatility, corporate earnings, and the direction of interest rates.
A recession is not imminent and investors should be skeptical of those who claim the market is vastly overvalued, according to Liz Ann Sonders.
Facebook can be an effective place for both large and small independent advisors to drive business, but only when it is used correctly. Here are seven steps to get started on Facebook.
Wasatch Advisors has been investing in India for well over a decade. We hope this paper will illuminate why we remain excited about the investment opportunities there.
Today we’ll look at the remarkable results the Cleveland Clinic has already achieved with its 100,000+ employees and dependents and with numerous corporations they work with. They are making people healthier and reducing medical costs. It is a model that I think could work on a much broader scale.
Although bad for your pocketbook and savings, the possibility of higher taxes is expected to increase interest in tax-free municipal bonds, especially among top earners. For over a year now, muni bond funds have seen positive weekly inflows, with $147 million going in during the week ended October 17. I expect this trend to continue as we head closer to the election, and beyond.
In order to make sense of what is taking place in our economy, capital markets and even our society, we are working within a paradigm in which we assume that our form of democracy and capitalism is changing at a more rapid pace than before.
As we look to the fourth quarter of 2016, we believe broader growth trends should be able to withstand the risks outlined here. While growth is slow, context is important.
Ensuring a smooth exit from extraordinary monetary policy will be no enviable task.
Metals investors wonder what this presidential election will mean for gold and silver markets. Since Nixon closed the gold window in 1971 and the years of price inflation that followed, presidents have largely ignored gold, the Federal Reserve, and other issues related to sound money.
Forecasters who were predicting a surge in the economy in the second half of this year have revised those estimates much lower in recent weeks. It now looks like the economy may not achieve even 2% growth this year.
