There’s a tug of war brewing between housing costs and consumer budgets in the US. Single-family home prices have risen 6% a year or more since 2011, and supply/demand forces point to further increases. But consumer budgets have limits. Some buyers are now spending around half of their income on housing.
Advisors need a shot clock to keep their sales and marketing efforts on point. What if every 24 hours, you have to get a new prospect in the pipeline or your competitor gets a shot at them?
For much of this recovery and expansion, many have opined that this economic cycle would ultimately end very differently than those of the past. We have resisted this narrative and instead explained our belief that this cycle will indeed follow the same path and end like all others.
Topics of discussion are Economic Outlook – “It’s a Mad Mad Mad Mad World”, Market Outlook – “Volatility is the New Black”, Building “All Weather” Portfolios.
If your brand is failing to connect with affluent prospects, here’s a glimpse inside their minds.
Will they or won’t they? With the U.S. yield curve flattening to new cycle lows, whether or not the Federal Reserve will stick to its planned rate-hike path is a key question – and could soon become the key question – for financial markets.
The conventional wisdom is that risk-adjusted, overall portfolio returns are enhanced by combining exposure to a U.S. small-cap equity benchmark, like the Russell 2000 Index, with large-cap stocks. However, we find this belief is simply not supported by the data.
Coming off of a strong year for the economy and markets, we had high hopes for 2018, but the first half of the year didn’t play out as planned. Between the stock market pullback early in the year; the slowdown in economic growth; and rising risks, largely in trade, expectations softened. As we hit the midway point for 2018, though, it looks as if those initial hopes might be more realistic than they seemed even a month ago.
Advisor Perspectives has announced its Venerated Voices™ awards for commentaries published in Q2 2018.
The thesis of Chris Hughes’s book Fair Shot: Rethinking Inequality and How We Earn is stated right up front: “Most Americans cannot find $400 in the case of an emergency like a car accident or a hospitalization, yet I was able to make half a billion dollars for three years of work. Something is profoundly wrong with our economy and in our country, and we have to fix it.” But is Hughes’s solution the answer?
A review of last month’s market-moving events across countries and asset classes.
Of the 14 major commodities we track at U.S. Global Investors, oil was the standout performer, gaining roughly 23 percent, followed by nickel (up 16.76 percent) and wheat (16.51 percent).
On our latest “Talking Markets” podcast, we listen in on a panel of experts discussing the potential US retirement crisis and the fear factors surrounding retirement disruption.
The second quarter was marked with market volatility from geopolitical tensions, the president’s tweets, and “America first” rhetoric.
We are coming to the mid-year point for 2018, and the past six months have felt like six years. Markets have experienced a significant uptick in volatility, yet equity investors may not have much to show for all their troubles.
Over the next few years, financial markets could be set for a series of “Rude Awakenings,” as we forecasted in our latest Secular Outlook. The global economy is transitioning out of a post-crisis period characterized by remarkable stability, and the changes ahead could be jarring for investors.
Actions by the U.S. will play an outsized role in the course of global growth. Today we are in the nascent stages of a trade war, with the Trump administration antagonizing important trading partners on three fronts: China, the E.U., and North America.
In the concluding piece of a three-part series focusing on how to potentially get returns in today’s bull market while protecting against the downside, Global CIO Jeff Hussey outlines why we believe alternative investments should be considered in a multi-asset investing strategy.
The economic calendar is a light one, and many regular participants are on vacation. The most important data include PPI, CPI, and JOLTS, the best read on a tightening labor market.
The US labor market is going from strength to strength. Like with corporate earnings, June jobs data beat consensus estimates - up 213,000 - pushing the average monthly gain for the past year to 198,000 per month.
Byron Wien discusses what people don’t recognize about Donald Trump, the future of Italy and the E.U. and whether federal deficits will be inflationary.
It’s not just smaller advisor firms with limited marketing resources that can use podcasting to deliver their messaging to affluent prospects and clients. Big firms can easily leverage the potential of podcasts. I recently started a modestly successful podcast, so here are my suggestions for those who are thinking of doing the same.
Templeton Global Macro makes a compelling case that finding attractive opportunities in emerging markets lies in distinguishing the more resilient countries from the rest.
This week I had the privilege of meeting a young tech superstar in Palo Alto, California—Gabe Leydon, cofounder and now-former CEO of mobile game producer MZ. Previously known as Machine Zone, the Sunnyvale-based company is responsible for developing some of the highest-grossing mobile games of all time, including Game of War: Fire Age and Mobile Strike, both of which profited from high-dollar marketing campaigns worthy of some Hollywood films. You might have seen Game of War’s Super Bowl commercial featuring swimsuit model Kate Upton, or Mobile Strike’s, starring Arnold Schwarzenegger.
This week, in the spirit of July 4 and Independence Day, I’m going to share the inspirational story of a friend who “Came to America.” But it’s also a teaching moment. I think the story is timely as we reflect on what this country means, to both its residents and the broader world. I hope you enjoy it.
The macro data from the past month continues to mostly point to positive growth. On balance, the evidence suggests the imminent onset of a recession is unlikely. The largest risk to the economy is the escalation in trade war rhetoric.
Beginning in 2010, central banks around the world turned from being net sellers of gold to net buyers of gold. Last year official sector activity rose 36 percent to 366 tonnes – a substantial increase from 2016.
As expert poker player Annie Duke explains in her book, Thinking in Bets, one of the more common mistakes amateurs make is the tendency to equate the quality of a decision with the quality of its outcome. Poker players call this trait “resulting.”
The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for growth, employment, inflation, and interest rates in the U.S., U.K., E.U., Japan and China.
With trade war rhetoric growing hotter, Presidents Trump and Xi still have time to head to the negotiating table.
Why is it so hard to find good talent in this industry – young people who are motivated, know what they need to do and do it?
Traditional advising has served its place well, but millennials’ behaviors, lifestyles and goals are a far cry from the generations that came before.
We need to help each other as regulatory pressures increase and the growing appetite for new financial technology solutions are striving to replace financial advisors.
The days are long and people’s thoughts naturally move to the mountains, lakes, and beaches. But these coming summer days may not be so “dog-like” as we normally anticipate.
US equities are up three months in a row and positive for the year. Historically, equities have a very strong propensity to end the year higher under these circumstances. That remains our long term view. Shorter-term, the S&P remains in a 5 month consolidation/trading range.
Uncle Sam has made too many promises to too many people, with little regard for its future ability to fulfill them. These are debt. Worse, some of them are additional debt on top of the obligations we already see on the national balance sheet. Even worse, entire generations have planned their retirement lives around the government fulfilling those promises. If those promises aren’t met, their lifestyles will indeed become a potential train wreck.
The economics team surveys a variety of upcoming events: Mexican elections this weekend, trade battles in the coming months, and LIBOR sunsetting in the years ahead.
Stop buying Iranian oil or face the music. That’s the message the U.S. government shared with the world this week, giving importers until November 4 to cut their consumption of Iran’s crude to zero—or expect sanctions. The threat comes a month after President Donald Trump withdrew the U.S. from the Obama-era nuclear deal.
Coke is one of the most, if not the most, recognized brands in the world. As a stock, The Coca-Cola Company (KO) is a blue-chip Dividend Aristocrat that has increased its dividend for 56 consecutive years. The company is A+ rated by S&P Capital IQ, offers a current dividend yield of 3.6% and a market cap of more than $184 billion. Even though nothing that I’ve said so far is likely to be news to most people, there is a reason for me mentioning these things.
We’re about nine years into the economic recovery following the Great Recession. It’s been an extraordinarily profitable period for the stock market—one of the best in U.S. history—and I hope you’ve participated.
Do increasing political risks pose to a threat to global economic growth? See what our strategists’ views are for the third quarter of 2018 and beyond.
Advisory firms are giving their employees a plan, but not teaching them how to execute its goals in measurable actions.
2017 was a great year for the economy and financial markets, and we started 2018 with high hopes for even faster growth and continued market gains. But between the stock market pullback early in the year; the slowdown in economic growth; and the rising political risks in Asia, with North Korea, and in Europe, with Britain and Italy, expectations softened. Perhaps 2017 was the end of the cycle after all.
What do the internet and China have in common? For better or for worse, policymakers are no longer treating them with kid gloves. This past week, the Supreme Court reversed a decision made before the dawn of the internet that prevented states from taxing sales to their residents unless the business had a "physical presence" in the state. Now, each state gets to decide whether those sales get taxed.
When Jeffrey Gundlach says that the federal deficit is on a suicide mission he is understating the problem.
Forecasting currency performance is like predicting the outcome of a horse race. Currencies move up the field and then fall back depending on their respective country conditions. And once in a great while, a very strong contender dominates the field – much like the winner of the Triple Crown.
When most investors think about traditional real estate investment trust (REIT) investment opportunities, they often think about the “four major food groups” of real estate — the retail, office, residential and industrial sectors. While these sectors continue to be a major component of REIT investing, they are increasingly being joined by nontraditional REIT sectors.
Modern Europe’s (and Canada and Australia and…) vaunted social welfare programs have helped many people, but they haven’t eliminated poverty, nor let everyone retire in comfort. Could they simply have shifted spending forward, leaving future generations with the bill? Today, we’ll explore that question as part of my continuing Train Wreck series.
