While history shows that U.S. markets tend to perform regardless of political leadership, the full impact of Trump’s policies could bring new challenges and opportunities for investors globally once he is in office.
If we had to choose one indicator to watch over the next few months, it would be weekly initial jobless claims.
The latest data suggests the U.S. economy is headed toward a soft landing rather than a recession. With Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts underway, markets are backing this view.
Do presidents and prime ministers make economies? Or do economies make presidents and prime ministers? 2024 is a year of significant elections, with more voters heading to the polls worldwide than ever before.
We believe optimism over a soft-landing scenario—where economic growth slows but a recession is avoided—may deliver more near-term market gains, as inflation declines and central banks look to start easing around mid-year.
It’s possible that a 2024 recession could be avoided, but we see recessions risks as remaining elevated in most developed markets. We believe there is limited upside for equities amid expensive valuations and recession concerns. Government bond valuations, however, look attractive in the U.S., UK, Canada, Germany and Australia.
We believe a mild U.S. recession is more likely than not in 2024, although a soft-landing scenario cannot be ruled out. A recession is also likely in the UK and eurozone, but appears less likely in Australia.
We believe that the creeping economic slowdown in the United States will probably persist for a few more months, with a recession possible over the next 12-18 months. The onset of the recession may be delayed until 2024.
Central banks haven't finished tightening and the U.S. Treasury yield curve remains inverted.
It’s been a tough first half of the year, with the MSCI All Country World Index down by 21.7% and the Bloomberg Global Treasury benchmark losing about 9% as of June 17.
Recession fears and central-bank tightening are driving market volatility.
Russia's invasion of Ukraine has sparked higher inflation, unleashed additional market volatility and will likely lead to a slowdown in global growth rates. However, we believe above-trend growth is still possible this year, provided hostilities ease and energy prices stabilize.
We believe the war in Ukraine will likely negatively impact growth rates during the first half of the year and lead to higher inflation, with Europe taking the biggest hit. However, we think growth could rebound during the second part of 2022 if energy prices decline.
What many feared may happen came true overnight with Russia invading Ukraine from all sides—Crimea, Belarus and Russia.
After a year of rebound and recovery, we believe that economic growth, inflation and investment returns are likely to moderate in 2022.
As the globe enters the waning months of 2021, concerns over inflation, the delta variant of COVID-19 and the unwinding of easy-money policies loom large for markets. Despite this, we believe that the business cycle is still in a recovery phase, although it’s maturing. We expect more cyclical upside for economic growth outside the U.S. in the months ahead, allowing market leadership to rotate toward the rest of the world.
The global economic reopening remains on track as COVID-19 vaccination rates climb.
We anticipate that COVID-19 vaccines and the easing of lockdowns will allow for a return to more normal economic activity by mid-2021.
It's a new cycle for the economy, but some asset classes look decidedly late cycle in terms of valuation. What might this mean for markets through the remainder of the year?
Markets have rallied on hopes for an economic recovery as coronavirus-imposed lockdowns are eased across the globe. The rebound has been helped by oversold investor sentiment, but with sentiment back to neutral, so too is our strategists’ market outlook.
A global recession is likely through the first half of the year, with a rebound possible during the second half of 2020, provided the virus threat subsides.
Central bank easing and the cooling China-U.S. trade war have set the scene for a global economic rebound in 2020. Our forecast pushes the risk of recession into late 2021, giving equity markets modest upside potential for 2020.
Once upon a time—of all the good days in the year, on Christmas Eve—old Ebenezer Scrooge sat busy in his counting-house. Rise from your bed, O Investor and hear first from our very own Ghosts of Investing Past, Present and Yet to Come.
Heading into the fourth quarter, our outlook remains cautious as markets continue to grapple with both trade and Brexit uncertainty.
An escalation in trade-war tensions between China and the U.S. has sparked a slowdown in global growth and a yield-curve inversion. Could global central bank easing and China stimulus turn the tide?
A shift in monetary policy among central banks has boosted markets since the start of the year. How much longer could the window of opportunity last before recession risks set in?
How might 2019 shape up across the investment landscape? Here’s our take on the key issues to pay attention to.
Can markets grind higher in 2019 before the clock runs out on the current cycle? See what our strategists’ views are for the year ahead.
Italy's proposed budget deficit for 2019 has been ill-received by markets. Could things get worse before they get better?
What impacts could escalating trade tensions and rising U.S. interest rates have on global markets and economies in the months ahead? See what our strategists’ views are for the fourth quarter of 2018 and beyond.
Do increasing political risks pose to a threat to global economic growth? See what our strategists’ views are for the third quarter of 2018 and beyond.
A strong start for markets in January was quickly replaced by uncertainty and volatility, which continue to this day. How might the rest of the year play out?
Is change in the wind for global investment markets and economies? See what our strategists’ views are for the second quarter of 2018 and beyond.
Will the global growth momentum of 2017 carry over into next year? Is there a risk of a pullback in the short term? See what our strategists' views on global investment markets and economies are for the year ahead.
The final installment of our 2017 global market outlook is here. See our strategists’ views on global investment markets and economies.
It’s time for our mid-year update to our 2017 Global Market Outlook. And the short story is that we’re not changing many of our views from our annual outlook.
Key points from Russell Investments’ latest Global Market Outlook: See what their strategists believe is ahead for global markets in 2017.
