The economics profession has long had a vigorous academic argument over “natural” interest rates. What would rates be if we could somehow remove all the subjective actors—central banks, commercial lenders, government agencies—that conspire to set them? What would nature do if we left it alone?
Revenue above expectations, pandemic federal aid and reserves have strengthened states' financial outlook. But states will need to prepare as pandemic aid winds down and the economy slows.
Rough water is ahead, but equity markets may sail higher over the next 12 months...
Bear Market As a card-carrying self-appointed value investor, I relish a bear market and quite frankly recessions. To the astute and disciplined value investor, bear markets bring opportunity, and more to the point, safety. In this video, I will illustrate why I feel this way and why I believe you should as well.
Amid stormy markets, senior securitized credits hold potential for resilient returns.
Spiking inflation, rising interest rates and growing fears of a US recession dominated global equity markets in the second quarter. While the outlook is very cloudy, it’s important to evaluate what types of strategies can help investors in an economic downturn.
While a direct indexing strategy is a great addition to an investor’s portfolio, you’ll want to ensure your clients are properly diversified and also poised to reap the benefits of active management, while recognizing that active management doesn’t generate as many tax losses as tracking the index does.
The investing world seems highly uncertain these days. Investors are understandably having trouble balancing earnings, the Fed, fiscal policy, inflation, economic growth, disease control, and geo- and US politics. Read our latest report to learn about the two certain events that are central to our current portfolio positioning.
It’s a bull market for pessimism right now. We know the list of concerns is long and includes an aggressive Federal Reserve with a spotty (and that’s putting it kindly) track record of navigating a soft landing, stagflation, ongoing China lockdowns, disrupted supply chains, overly optimistic earnings estimates, the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, and the latest—failing crypto firms.
The bond market is weird, but it’s full of clues. We have 8.6% inflation, but the highest interest rates have gone recently is about 3.4%, meaning real rates were still negative to the tune of 5%. This is confusing to me and a lot of other people.
Lao Tzu wrote, “A journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step.”
The Federal Reserve's pledge to curb inflation appears to have resonated with the market.
As an old saying states that statistics do not lie, but statisticians are darn liars.
As we move into the second half of 2022, there are lots of things to worry about.
The latest data suggest that we may already be in a recession.
The Smart Money Index was constructed by Don Hays and measures the market action in the first half hour of trading and the last hour of trading.
Chris Galipeau, Senior Market Strategist of Putnam’s Capital Market Strategies group, recently spoke with Scott M. D’Orsi, CFA, a Portfolio Manager in Putnam’s Fixed Income group on the Active Insights podcast.
Chairman and largest shareholder, Harold Hamm, is trying to own our shares of Continental Resources (CLR US) at a price of $70.
Where can investors turn when the markets are a riddle? Raymond James CIO Larry Adam seeks advice from antiquity.
This is one of the most intriguing charts on my desk at the moment, it shows our composite global PMI backlogs indicator falling to the lowest level in almost 2 years… meanwhile inventories are surging to record levels.
Mutual fund managers evaluate many characteristics of potential investment opportunities.
As we celebrate 246 years of national independence, our country is now more than two years into an economic recovery from the two-month COVID Lockdown Depression.
U.S. stocks are seeing pressure in early action following the long holiday weekend, with global recession concerns weighing on sentiment.
We think we could see a bullish back half of the year for equity markets. Our analysis follows in our Quarterly Strategy Report.
An earnings recession is coming as the Fed hikes rates which accelerates an economic recession.
In the longer term, oil and gas prices look set to rise unless investment picks up sharply, which seems unlikely given current policy guidance.
Three of my biggest winners have one thing in common…
Before we think about the hypothetical new world order that global inflation may enter, let’s start with the good news within the United States.
No doubt about it, this has been a very challenging market environment to navigate, and we look to be in for more of the same. The Fed will continue to tighten monetary policy, and the longer the conflict in Ukraine persists, the longer we’ll likely feel the pressure from elevated gas prices.
Let’s start with a basic question. If you have unused property—cash or anything else—why would you lend it to another party?
Inflation, China, Russia, Central Banks, Labor, Recession: It's been quite a year thus far.
It took me a long, long time to write The End of Indexing.
“HODL,” an original misspelling taken on as a badge of courage by cryptocurrency investors, spread to “Meme stocks” during the runup in 2020 and 2021.
How quickly the narrative has shifted back and forth in the money and bond markets.
In the light of multiple discussions raised in AP community about strategies that help investors through market downturns, we would like to share a perspective on advantages of an active asset management approach or so-called actively traded hedge-fund strategy based on the example of a classic long-short US equity strategy.
The crypto investing front has taken another barrage of body blows, pushing Bitcoin to test the $19,000 per coin level once again.
With consumer behavior under a magnifying glass, Portfolio Manager Jennifer Thomas, shares her assessment of the US consumer.
Last Thursday, Elizabeth Warren expressed skepticism about the Fed tightening monetary policy, saying it would make people poor.
There is ample reason to worry that major economies like the United States are heading for a recession, accompanied by cascading financial turmoil.
The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for key markets in the month ahead.
Now is the time to engage in risk management to retain your competitive advantage once the economy emerges from the slowdown.
Recession fears and central-bank tightening are driving market volatility.
We examine key themes from our review of advisor fixed income portfolios over the past year.
After the steep drop in prices during the first half of this year, yields on many corporate bond investments are at or near 12-year highs.
We've told people to watch the M2 measure of money in order to understand whether inflation will cool down or heat up.
As I have indicated in recent weeks, I don’t really understand why the media has turned so bearish on the US economy lately, and why so many forecasters are predicting we’re either just about to enter a potentially nasty recession or we’re already in one.
Energy commodity prices (the index in this chart includes crude oil, natural gas, and other petroleum products) have pulled back from the highs, but it could just be the start of a deeper correction if the price action in industrial metal commodities is anything to go by.
Vietnam is a frontier market star.
The Federal Reserve is trying to fight inflation by raising interest rates.
Our mid-March meeting’s “unenthusiastic” stance on global equities and negative stance on global bonds was a respectable decision, as was the overall macro theme “Stagflation Lite with GDP somewhat worse than consensus, but skirting recession.”
