This is a critical time for investors and policymakers alike.
The investors of Smead Capital Management have been hearing us talk about ‘First World Problems’ recently.
Now that we are seeing much of this come to fruition, it is now time to turn the page to the next chapter.
In August, demand for bullion had slacked a bit from the frenetic pace set over the past two years.
We are not “recession deniers,” we just don’t think one has started yet.
A path remains in sight for the U.S. to avoid a recession.
We have a long and proud history of investing thematically and believe you can remove a great deal of volatility in your portfolio, if you do so.
Every time I cruise around Raleigh, it’s like Tesla drivers have multiplied.
The latest rate hike announcement by the Fed sent stocks tumbling to the year’s lows. While last week’s market action was brutal, the good news is the markets are set up for a rather significant short squeeze higher.
Generally speaking, when rates rise, so does the importance of investing in high-quality companies with strong operating metrics that can weather the higher cost of capital.
Just 18.5% of homes in Florida counties that were told to evacuate have coverage through the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP), which is administered by FEMA. Most regular homeowners’ insurance policies don’t cover flood damage, which is why Congress created the NFIP in 1968. But at an average cost of $995 a year, according to Forbes, the insurance may be out of reach to many households.
This dark symphony was never going to end without sparking a currency crisis, one which allows countries to blame other countries as the source of their own internal problems. We will see that it’s not always the case.
Senior Sovereign Analyst Jon Levy looks at this week’s rate and currency shocks in the UK and shares what he believes is a root of the problem.
U.K. financial market volatility is likely to remain high, and the longer-term outlook likely depends on future monetary and fiscal policy.
Surveying the current condition of the financial markets, we presently observe a combination of still historically-extreme valuations, rising yet still only normalizing interest rates, measurably inadequate risk-premiums in both equities and bonds, and ragged, unfavorable market internals, suggesting continued risk-aversion among investors.
The massive debt levels provide the single most significant risk and challenge to the Federal Reserve. It is also why the Fed is desperate to return inflation to low levels, even if it means weaker economic growth.
Our last update was on August 26th and the market had peaked on the 16th of that month.
A number of key technical, sentiment and flow based indicators are suggesting we could see a relief in selling pressure over the coming weeks, and perhaps a countertrend rally in risk assets.
10 years have passed since the watershed year for pension risk transfer.
Over the last few months, the Federal Reserve (Fed) has changed its angle of attack quite dramatically, in an attempt to battle surprisingly and stubbornly high inflation.
“Gold is no longer a safe haven.” “Gold isn’t an effective hedge against inflation.” “Gold is dead.”
It’s been a tough year for investors, particularly in growth stocks.
It appears to us that global innovation has bottomed and offers attractive value.
Investors see a myriad of unknowns right now, and popular discussion continues to focus on a dichotomy between growth and cyclicals. We think there is a third choice that's being ignored.
U.S. equities are higher in afternoon action following a recent plunge to lows not seen since 2020.
Inflation remains persistently high, dominating everything else in the macro outlook.
In the midst of back-to-school season, David Mann opines on the real-life applications of mysterious middle-school math and exchange-traded funds.
In the 1980s there was a famous TV ad for Wendy’s with the tagline “Where’s the beef?”.
As the U.S. CPI data continues to rise, Charles Hamieh, Portfolio Manager at ClearBridge Investments, dives into the opportunity present for investors looking at the infrastructure space as an inflation hedge moving forward.
It’s easy to overlook the fact that, in thinking about investment risk, we are implicitly making a choice about the benchmark against which risk is measured.
After previously eschewing interest-rate hikes, the US Federal Reserve has been tightening monetary policy at an unprecedented rate.
Central banks haven't finished tightening and the U.S. Treasury yield curve remains inverted.
Bleeding into this week, the British pound reached its lowest level ever Monday, relative to the U.S. dollar.
Policy responses to shortages are not always effective.
The municipal bond market has not been immune to bouts of volatility hitting the markets this year, but there are still pockets of opportunity, according to Franklin Templeton Fixed Income’s Director of Municipal Bonds, Ben Barber.
Stocks are far from cheap. Based on Buffett’s preferred valuation model and historical data, return expectations for the next ten years are as likely to be negative as they were for the ten years following the late ’90s.
The U.S. dollar has been on a tear in recent months, bringing it to its highest valuation versus other major developed currencies in more than 35 years.
A yield on gold and silver is an attractive alternative to falling yields in dollars or the negative yield with costs of vaulting your precious metals. But are the yields high enough?
While 2022 has been a challenging year for nearly every segment of the capital markets, it comes with a silver lining for income investors: higher yields.
Oil has been routing since summer after reaching historic highs of over $130 per barrel, but we may see some relief soon as near-term events may trigger a rally.
Precious metals markets are trying to tough this week despite another large rate hike by the Federal Reserve.
“Invest in what you know.” You’ve likely heard this advice before.
The pandemic drove up debt, and higher interest rates are adding to the burden.
We had been bullish on stocks all the way back to March 2009, when mark-to market accounting was fixed and the Financial Panic started to recede
The world will be going from an era of zero rates and loose monetary policy to higher rates and likely slower growth, except in certain sectors. Adjusting to this change will be both problematic and also full of potential opportunities.
Portfolio Manager John Paul Lech explains why investors in emerging markets should go upstream in order to leverage the long-term power of the EV sector.
Inflation is top of mind for consumers and market participants. In the United States, many are questioning whether student loan forgiveness will make inflation worse, and if the recently passed “Inflation Reduction Act” will offer relief.
Review the latest Weekly Headings by CIO Larry Adam.
We are now in another downswing in the ongoing bear market.
