There are signs US economic growth is slowing down. In particular, jobless claims, perhaps the best high-frequency economic indicator, have averaged 235,000 per week in the last four weeks versus 211,000 in the first quarter.
Amidst a widespread deterioration in the economic landscape, it is crucial to underscore the current detrimental roles of monetary and fiscal policy.
The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) release has brought some much-needed respite, indicating a slowdown in inflation. Yet, underlying economic conditions suggest that this reprieve may be temporary, with potential for inflationary pressures to reassert themselves in the coming months.
While the European Central Bank kept policy rates unchanged, the next cut is likely to be delivered soon.
There are many advantages and risks associated with any investment. Whether you are buying a stock, a house, a business, or a bond, each investment has unique characteristics that allow an investor to gain from particular investment features with varying risks.
The stock market is not a balloon that gets bigger when money “flows into” it. It doesn’t get smaller because money “flows out” of it. Holding the number of shares constant, the stock market gets bigger if investors pay a higher price for those shares. Period.
The incorporation of artificial intelligence in the crypto space could push AI-focused exchange-traded funds even higher.
With both economic and inflation data continuing to weaken, expectations of Fed rate cuts are rising. Notably, following the latest consumer price index (CPI) report, which was weaker than expected, the odds of Fed rate cuts by September rose sharply. According to the CME, the odds of a 0.25% cut to the Fed rate are now 90%.
The inflation picture is getting better but we still have too much of it. Inflation is going but not gone, and probably won’t be gone anytime soon. Today I’ll tell you why.
A seismic shift is taking place in corporate America as even more companies announce plans to relocate from blue states to more business-friendly jurisdictions like Texas.
As we start the second half of 2024 and we approach next week’s release of the preliminary report on real GDP for 2Q, we continue to expect 2H economic growth and inflation to downshift versus what we saw during 1H of this year.
Relatively high yields mean investors who have been focusing on short-term securities wouldn't need to sacrifice much yield if they chose MBS to help limit their reinvestment risk.
In this article, we look at three indicators from the past week: retail sales, industrial production, and the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI). At first, these indicators might seem unrelated. However, they all have a role in predicting economic trends.
Analysts periodically construct elegant algorithms that produce interesting conclusions, only to learn that the underlying information is flawed.
Earlier interest-rate cuts would come as good news for the US economy.
Kinder Morgan Inc. (KMI) provided insight into natural gas demand and growth opportunities during the firm’s second-quarter earnings call.
Looking for a rate-sensitive ETF for rate cuts? This strategy is performing well over the last several periods per YCharts even before cuts.
Investors are betting on interest-rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve in September, and potentially even in late July. But the outlook for inflation and the labor market in the United States does not indicate that policymakers should begin lowering rates in the next two months.
According to some pundits, we had a bloodbath in the information technology sector yesterday, should you buy, sell or hold?
Across Europe, ruling parties are under pressure. Bond investors should stay active and invested, in our view.
Issuance of green bonds surged in the first half of 2024. That could put more eyeballs on the VanEck Green Bond ETF (GRNB).
A Structured Protection ETF like CPRJ can offer robust tax benefits for investors seeking to move cash or get exposure to small-cap equities.
As Microsoft, Meta Platforms, chipmakers, and others prepare to report earnings, the AI-driven cloud and chip industries may continue to dominate the technology storyline.
Some previously high-flying chip stocks have retreated much more than 5% since the start of the third quarter.
Investors could be shifting to safer debt, which could outperform once the Federal Reserve starts cutting interest rates.
When it comes to assembling a well-rounded investment portfolio, the makeup and placement of U.S. equity allocations are key considerations. Tony DeSpirito, Global CIO of BlackRock Fundamental Equities, challenges conventional thinking to suggest that alpha-seeking strategies in U.S. large-cap stocks are deserving of a core position in portfolios.
Portfolio Manager Daniel Siluk believes subsiding inflation and declining interest rates underpin a compelling argument for investors to reallocate funds away from money market strategies toward shorter-dated bonds.
Artificial intelligence is set to become a game changer for the electric power industry, notes Pavel Molchanov, Managing Director, Energy Analyst, Equity Research.
As the U.S. evolved from a goods economy to a services economy, expansionary cycles more than doubled in length. But a recent resurgence in manufacturing may be taking us back to the future.
US investors often stick to US markets. But that could be a costly mistake—especially today.
In the post-pandemic fiscal landscape, government debt trajectories may be volatile, but appear broadly sustainable.
Welcome to the second installment of our new blog series, “Navigating Earnings Season,” where I examine the world of earnings reports from major companies — giants like JP Morgan and Pepsi, as well as niche players in various sectors.
Discover what surprised markets in the second quarter of 2024 and understand the potential drivers of volatility for the third quarter.
Explaining Strong Returns in the Face of Value Headwinds.
The strong level of belief investors have in the Fed to assure positive market outcomes is belied by the diminishing room it has to maneuver policy. When this becomes obvious, an important market support will be removed.
The dilemma that all Fed committees and chairpersons face when the economic cycle nears a turn but then repeats itself can be summed up with Fed chair Jerome Powell’s recent references: “Easing too soon, too much could harm inflation progress.” “Easing too little, too late could unduly weaken the economy.”
It’s earnings season yet again. And I think this one is going to be more down-to-earth than the ones we’ve had over the past year.
It's important to understand the true meaning behind the names of investment funds, especially when it comes to those labeled "tax-managed"
The Federal Reserve is in the pilot’s seat as the American economy approaches a soft landing. The runway is in sight, but some careful maneuvering will still be needed.
Elections have been anything but easy for investors. What has been easy is financial conditions in the US relative to the level of policy rates, fostering the debate over the degree of policy restrictiveness as global monetary easing begins.
A transition to alternative energy is helping to fuel a 4th industrial revolution. In turn, this will increase critical minerals demand.
There has long been talk of a new wave of biotech mergers and acquisitions activity coming to life.
GMO has posted a new 7-Year Asset Class Forecast.
Artificial intelligence and generative AI remain the proverbial hype trains of thematic investing this year.
Longer duration Treasuries have been mired in a bear market since 2020 but could finally start to see a reversal of fortune.
This week marks the official start to 2Q24 earnings season, with the big banks among the first to report. While much of the last six weeks has been dominated by the softening macro backdrop, the S&P 500 looked past the weakening data – notching 37 record closes already this year.
Diverse stakeholders shared perspectives at AB’s Advancing Retirement Income symposium.
The lags between a shift in monetary policy and the economic impact are long and variable. While the actions of the Federal Reserve during the pandemic were unprecedented, it finally looks like the excess money pumped into the economy has worked its way through the system. And with the M2 measure of the money supply down from its peak, the economy is reacting.
Some state that “bears are like a ‘broken clock,’ they are right twice a day.” While it may seem true during a rising bull market, the reality is that both “bulls” and “bears” are owned by the “broken clock syndrome.”
The assassination attempt against former President Trump gave a bump to his odds of becoming president, as they rose from 60% to 67% on Monday morning on Predictit.org.
