How to Make Time Segmentation Work in Practice: Three Options for Extending a Bond Ladder
For time segmentation to work, there must be a clear procedure for how to extend the bond ladder. Unfortunately, with its varied implementation, that procedure is often overlooked. I will examine the potential for time segmentation by considering three different ways to implement it.
Emerging Markets: The Clouds Lift
As 2017 progresses and the priorities of the Trump administration take shape, the outlook for emerging markets (EM) has evolved from uncertain to promising.
Beyond the Headlines: Finding Opportunities in Today’s Markets
With markets reacting in part to geopolitical events, it’s hard not to be distracted by news headlines. To help sift through some of the noise, several of our senior investment leaders recently participated in a roundtable discussion of the events shaping the global markets today, the implications for investors and where they see potential opportunities ahead.
Why Passive Is a Risky Choice for Global Bonds
Passive global bond investors may be getting more than they bargained for—in terms of risk, that is. That’s because lower-yielding debt is overrepresented in the benchmark, providing less buffer—and passive investing locks other types of risk into the portfolio.
Bull Or Bear: Should Investors Still Care?
With the stock market in full swing, investors are questioning whether the end is nigh. This month, we review bull and bear market cycles past, and observe the difference between cyclical and secular periods.
The Fed is A Proxy for Government
Well, that was fun! The GOP's attempt to reform healthcare hit a brick wall of politics. Conservative Republicans wanted to completely "repeal" Obamacare, while moderates and leaders were willing to keep much of it as long as it cost less. Moving one way or the other lost too many votes. Democrats refused to participate. So, the bill died.
On My Radar: No Friends on a Powder Day
We touched down late last night in Salt Lake City. Susan, the boys, Brianna and me along with a dozen bags. It’s a long-standing family tradition and let’s just say everyone is really excited. A snowstorm just ended and my Snowbird app says 11” of fresh new snow.
Time Segmentation as the Compromise Solution for Retirement Income
Time segmentation is wildly popular in practice and it goes by many different names. But it is also the least studied retirement-income approach. Whether time segmentation is a superior investing approach for retirement income has led to many heated debates.
Six Impossible Things Before Breakfast
One of the great joys of working at GMO is the freedom to disagree. Indeed, many moons ago when Ben Inker first approached me about joining GMO, he told me that, having read my work, he believed we were very much philosophically aligned.
Dissolving Musical Chairs
Over the completion of the current market cycle, we estimate that roughly half of U.S. equity market capitalization - $17 trillion in paper wealth - will simply vanish. Nobody will “get” that wealth. It will simply disappear, like a game of musical chairs where players think they've won by finding chairs as the music stops, and suddenly feel them dissolving as if they had never existed in the first place. Moreover, even if U.S. real and nominal economic growth were to fully recover to their long-term historical norms, it would take 12-16 years of 6% nominal growth, with zero price appreciation in the interim, to bring reliable valuation measures back to their own historical norms.
Bring On Brexit
The Threat and Risk of Rising Interest Rates: Separating Fact from Fiction
The threat of rising interest rates is all the rage in financial circles today. However, the seminal question is: How real is the threat, and how much impact will rising rates have on stock prices and investor performance?
Fund Managers Become Bullish
A tailwind for the rally over the past year has been the bearish positioning of investors, with fund managers persistently shunning equities in exchange for holding cash.
Muni Credit Plays Defense When Rates Rise
As interest rates nudge higher, many municipal bond investors worry about the impact on their portfolios. Muni credit, which holds its value better when rates rise, could be the solution.
The Biggest Trends in Family Wealth
Family wealth has emerged as the financial-industry topic of this decade, akin to what estate planning was in the ‘70s, investment planning in the ‘80s, financial planning in the ‘90s, and wealth management in the ‘00s. Today family wealth advisors serve 35,000 households that all together account for more than $5 trillion in assets.