The Fixed Income Channel

Merrill Memo

Charles Merrill issued the aforementioned memo to clients on March 31, 1928. At the end of the first quarter in 1928 the D-J Industrial Average was around 240. It subsequently rose to a September 3, 1929 peak of 381.17, which was the price peak for the Industrials that would not be surpassed until 1954, not that we are predicting anything like that here.

Jeremy Siegel: The S&P 500 is Fairly Valued

The bull market in U.S. equities is behind us, according to Wharton professor Jeremy Siegel, who says that the S&P 500 is now “fairly priced.”

Six Themes That Will Drive the Next Five Years

Those looking for an optimistic forecast for U.S. equities can turn to Northern Trust. Bob Browne, its chief investment officer, identified six themes that will drive the capital markets over the next five years. Taken together, they translate to 5.9% annual returns for U.S. stocks over that period, which includes 2017.

Time to Trim, but Not Abandon Gold

Gold has performed surprisingly well this year. Russ discusses why that might not be the case going forward, and it may be time to pare positions.

Thanksgiving and the Long-Term Pilgrimage of Interest Rates

As Thanksgiving approaches, we are reminded of our history. Financial planners are the voice of the financial industry for many of our clients. Here’s a bit about the history of interest rates in this wonderful country of ours as well as globally.

How Have Hurricanes Harvey, Irma and Maria Impacted the Municipal Bond Market?

The financial impact of 2017’s three devastating hurricanes has varied greatly depending on the region affected. From a credit standpoint, the most important takeaway is that each region’s ability to withstand the financial impact of the storms depends on its credit quality ahead of the storm.

On My Radar: A Fatal Attraction for the Slim Chance

My daughter, Brianna, and I were recently listening to a Charlie Rose interview on Bloomberg Radio. I love the way he asks direct questions. The interview featured Jeremiah Tower, a little-known chef who pioneered a restaurant revolution in the 1970s that gave rise to the culinary style known as “California Cuisine.”

How do you measure an active manager’s success?

Financial research and technology can dissect individual funds to attribute the reasons behind performance.

Our Message to Congress: Save Our Savings!

One of President Donald Trump's campaign promises was to overhaul the US tax code. The administration recently released its tax proposal, and the pundits have been weighing in on how it will affect us all. As Congress continues to debate the latest version of the plan, which passed through the House of Representatives on November 16,

Synchronized Global Growth May Have Arrived

Nearly 10 years after the financial crisis brought the global economy to its knees, conditions have finally improved enough to crystallize my conviction that synchronized global growth is currently underway. Revenue and earnings growth are up year-over-year, not just in the U.S. but worldwide. Despite President Donald Trump threatening to raise tariffs and tear up trade deals, global trade is accelerating. World manufacturing activity expanded to a 78-month high of 53.5 in October, with faster rates recorded in new orders, exports, employment and input prices.

Bonfire of the Absurdities

This week’s letter will take a look at the growing number of ridiculous, inane, and otherwise nonsensical absurdities that fill the daily economic headlines. I have gone from the occasional smile to scratching my head now and then to “WTF” moments several times a week.

Should I Pay Down My Debt?

One of the most common questions we hear from people who have suddenly acquired wealth is, “Should I pay down my debt?” In our view, you should only pay down debt if the costs exceed the benefits.

Gundlach’s Top ETF Recommendation

The money to be made is in non-U.S. markets, according to Jeffrey Gundlach. For long-term investors, he recommends a specific ETF.

Benefiting From Flexibility: Opportunities in Multi‑Sector Credit

As many traditional credit sectors begin to approach full valuations, credit investors may want to look in new directions for attractive returns with manageable downside risk. In diversified credit portfolios today, de-risking and building liquidity are important, but we also see attractive relative value opportunities in a couple of (sometimes overlooked) sectors.

The Importance of Implementation Efficiency

In the second of a three-part series on principles of the low-return imperative, we zero in on the value of efficient implementation—and identify three ways it may help achieve desired outcomes.