The Fixed Income Channel

Gold Gets a Shot in the Arm from Inflation and China

Inflation just got another jolt, rising as much as 2.5 percent year-over-year in January, the highest such rate since March 2012. Led by higher gasoline, rent and health care costs, consumer prices have now advanced for the sixth straight month. In addition, January is the second straight month for rates to be above the Federal Reserve’s target of 2 percent.

Weekly Market Summary

US equities continue to make new all-time highs each week, supported by strong equity fund inflows and macro data that has exceeded expectations. Surprisingly, equities outside the US are actually outperforming the S&P. The current trend is very extended and there are four notable headwinds that may impact equities in the weeks ahead. There is, conversely, a favorable set up in the bond market.

Tax Reform: The Good, the Bad, and the Really Ugly—Part Three

Today we come to part 3 of my tax reform series. So far, we’ve introduced the challenge and begun to describe the main proposed GOP solution. Today we’ll look at the new and widely misunderstood “border adjustment” idea and talk about both its good and bad points

Big Winners in the Neglected Frontier Universe

Frontier markets were mixed in 2016, with most of the Middle East and Africa lagging the rest of the universe and a few mar­kets surging ahead 30-40% on the year.

Russia: Stagnant Stability

A recent trip to Moscow on the 100th anniversary of the 1917 revolution revealed not a whiff of revolutionary change in the economy, but rather stagnant growth mixed with structural stability. We could simply call it “stagnant stability.”

Global Economic Perspective: February

For all that political events and speculation about policy direction have dominated news cycles over recent months, the US economy’s key fundamentals have changed remarkably little, in our view. The backdrop appears to us to be constructive, as a healthy level of consumer spending has been increasingly reinforced by a recovery in corporate earnings and investment.

Forecasting Factor and Smart Beta Returns (Hint: History Is Worse than Useless)

In a series of articles we published in 2016, we show that relative valuations predict subsequent returns for both factors and smart beta strategies in exactly the same way price matters in stock selection and asset allocation.

French Election Jitters Underscore Caution When Investing in Europe

Market nerves in anticipation of the French presidential elections in April and May 2017 have driven a spike in 10-year French and Italian government bond spreads, which have climbed 30 to 40 basis points (bps) in recent weeks (to 75 bps and 195 bps over bunds, respectively).

Why European High-Yield ETFs Don’t Deliver

There’s value and opportunity in European high-yield bonds today. But if you’re considering using an exchange-traded fund (ETF) to tap into the market, you may want to think again.

Fund Managers' Current Asset Allocation

Optimism towards the economy has surged to a 2-year high. Cash remains in favor (a positive) but global equity allocations are back above neutral for the first time since late 2015. Another push higher and excessive bullish sentiment will become a headwind.

2017: A Challenging Year Ahead for Portfolio Allocation Decisions

Surprising many investors and pundits alike, the S&P 500 posted a solid return for 2016, finishing the year up close to 10%. If investors never looked at their statements, one might be naïve to how much markets zigged and zagged throughout the year.

Two Approaches to Managing Volatility in High Yield

These are uncertain times in markets, and that creates a dilemma for investors who need high levels of income but can’t stomach a high level of risk. We have a solution. Actually, we have two.

What 2016 Can Teach You About Investing in 2017

If there’s one word that characterizes 2016, it’s drama. That goes for last year’s politics, sports and even investments—last year, almost every corner of the global financial market experienced some kind of dramatic reversal, from U.S. stock markets to global bond markets, from crude oil prices to gold prices.

The Latest News in Alternative Investing – Finding Pockets of Opportunity

With a diversified portfolio, alternative investments can complement more conservative investments and produce higher returns. This week’s news focuses on pockets of opportunities, such as in multi-asset absolute-return funds, smaller hedge funds and real estate.

The Equity Rally Should Persist, but Expect Bumps

As has been the case for the past couple of months, investors continued to be highly attuned to the political backdrop last week. Early in the week, concerns over the president’s immigration and trade policies cased unease, but sentiment improved on Thursday after Donald Trump signaled a near-term announcement on tax reform.