Though uncertainties remain, we have a broadly positive outlook for commodities in the next year.
Proposed US tax cuts—if they happen—would be a nice boon for corporate bottom lines. But for most companies, the boost to underlying earnings power would likely be fleeting. To find tax-reform winners, look for the exceptions.
Oil is back in the news, with the price of benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude roughly doubling from last year’s lows driven by steady demand and coordinated supply cuts by Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and non-OPEC producers.
Consumer spending accounts for 69% of Gross Domestic Product. Last week, the data on the household sector were mixed. The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index surged to a 16-year high.
Successful advisory firms value their culture of compliance, and continue to build on the program they have in place. Here are a few best practices.
As some market worries have been put to rest, there is a growing appetite for new ones. Pundits who say that things look OK are not very exciting. Last week we saw a shift in attention. Despite healthy earnings and good economic data.
One way to use information on stock valuations and interest rates in a systematic way is to estimate the break-even level of valuation that would have to exist at given points in the future, in order for stocks to outperform or underperform bonds over various horizons. Investors presently face a dismal menu of expected returns regardless of their choice. Indeed, in order for expected S&P 500 total returns to outperform even the lowly return on Treasury bonds in the years ahead, investors now require market valuations to remain above historical norms for the next 22 years.The good news is that this menu is likely to improve substantially over the completion of the current market cycle. The problem is that current valuation extremes present a hostile combination of weak prospective return and steep risk.
Franklin Templeton Fixed Income Group talks monetary policy, European politics in the April Global Economic Perspective.
The popularity of smart-beta products has raised concerns that certain factors have been “overgrazed” – that their expected return has been driven down due to popularity-driven demand. A new research paper purports to refute this concern. But its logic is flawed and practitioners should be highly skeptical of its conclusions.
Portfolio manager Ken Fincher of First Trust Advisors provides an update on closed-end fund discount trends in the first quarter of 2017.
The persistence of exceptionally low volatility has created a perception that it will be “smooth sailing” for stocks. Evidence suggests just the opposite, however; now is the time to focus on protection.
In 2016, Research Affiliates published a series of articles challenging the “smart beta” revolution. We pointed out that, while there is merit in many factor tilt and smart beta strategies, performance chasing in these strategies—buying the popular outperforming strategies whose relative valuations are at extremely high levels—can be just as dangerous as performance chasing in other realms of asset management.
A synchronized pickup in global economic activity has lifted the spirits of businesses, consumers and investors worldwide. Though many equity markets are near 52-week highs and credit spreads are near multi-year lows, we still believe the US credit cycle has time to advance in its later stage.
Nonfarm payrolls were reported to have risen by “just” 98,000 in March, while the unemployment rate fell to its lowest level (4.5%) since May 2007. The March 14-15 FOMC minutes “revealed” that officials plan to begin reducing the size of the Fed’s balance sheet later this year.
I spoke with uber investor Frederick “Shad” Rowe, captain of Dallas-based Greenbrier Partners, last Thursday. Shad always has great investment insights, and his March letter to investors was no exception.
The first quarter of 2017 was a profitable one for many strategic domestic and global equity investors. All major domestic large cap indices are up for the year: S&P 500 is 5.53%, Dow 4.56%, and NASDAQ 9.82%. On the other hand, domestic small cap underperformed with the Russell 2000 gaining 2.12%.
So should we sing or weep? Warren Buffett has a brilliant way of making the complicated simple. Let’s think about valuations like we think about the price of hamburgers and see if we are going to get more or less for our money. Today, I share with you my favorite valuation charts and story them in a way I hope your clients might better understand.
My firm recently approved a new alternative investment, one that until recently was only available through hedge funds, the Stone Ridge Reinsurance Risk Premium Interval Fund (SRRIX).
If history is any guide, this weakening in bank credit growth excluding C&I loans is cause for concern with regard to the pace of economic activity.
What are the key factors behind changes in liquidity in Asia, and what does this mean for long-term investors in the region? In this issue, we offer a guide to considering such related issues with less trepidation. Asia Insight explores.
Favourable European election results coupled with progress for the Republican growth agenda in the US could soften market uncertainty, says Greg Meier, strategist with Allianz Global Investors. But for the next few weeks, the road still looks bumpy.
Many investors still have misconceptions about exchange-traded funds (ETFs), including the type of market exposure they are getting with traditional capitalization-weighted ETFs. Dr. Chandra Seethamraju, director of systematic modeling, Franklin Templeton Solutions, gives us the lowdown on the concept of “beta” within ETFs—specifically strategic beta—and how it can offer a smarter investment approach.
Checking in on some “Trump trades.” The election outcome and resulting expectations for fiscal policy have caused several shifts in market leadership toward areas most sensitive to these policies. Policy is not the only factor to consider when evaluating these investments, but it is a very important one.
The stock market started off this year in a similar fashion to how it ended last year, in rally mode. The difference this year is that international stocks have been participating as well.
Joel Greenblatt serves as managing principal and co-chief investment officer of Gotham Asset Management and is one of the foremost value managers. His fund, the Gotham Index Plus Institutional Fund (GINDX) is in the 1st percentile of its Morningstar peer group (Large Cap Blend) for the period since inception (March 31, 2015) through March 31, 2017, significantly outperforming the S&P 500.
It’s hard to imagine a more challenging decade for income investors than the past 10 years. It was bookended by the great financial crisis and the surge in populist politics that led to the election of Donald Trump as U.S. President.
Today we continue looking at angst in America, the financial worries that so afflict us here in the world’s largest economy and by extension in much of the developed world. We may be the envy of the world in some ways, but we also have no shortage of stress. Today we’ll look at some data on retirement savings – or lack thereof.
Flanked by coal workers, President Donald Trump signed the American Energy Independence Executive Order this week, directing the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to review the Clean Power Plan, former President Barack Obama’s signature environmental policy. Unveiled in August 2015, the plan is intended to reduce carbon dioxide emitted from U.S. power plants 32 percent by 2030.
Volatility is creeping back into the markets. Russ discusses why that holds some peril for momentum stocks.
The Federal Reserve faces three complications to removing monetary policy accommodation.
The big news of the day is that the United Kingdom has finally pulled the trigger on its exit from the European Union. The letter initiating Brexit was delivered this morning, and the parties now begin the two-year process of negotiating the exit terms and subsequent relationship.
The X factor is intangible. I can’t describe it in concrete terms. But I recognize it when I see it. I recently found it in an unlikely source: the commissioner of the National Basketball Association, Adam Silver.
As 2017 progresses and the priorities of the Trump administration take shape, the outlook for emerging markets (EM) has evolved from uncertain to promising.
The paper discusses a wide range of issues facing China’s economy in 2017, from the selection of Xi Jinping’s successor, to relations with U.S. President Donald Trump, to the outlook for China’s One Belt One Road initiatives in Asian infrastructure development. China’s currency volatility should continue this year, but geopolitical risks to its economy may be overstated.
In a companion paper, “Six Impossible Things Before Breakfast,” we present evidence that asset markets are generally priced for “secular stagnation,” and argue that this requires a number of extreme assumptions on the part of investors.
The threat of rising interest rates is all the rage in financial circles today. However, the seminal question is: How real is the threat, and how much impact will rising rates have on stock prices and investor performance?
The UK’s triggering of Article 50 on March 29 is like firing the starting pistol on the process of leaving the EU – but this race will be slow and tortuous. Here is our view on what investors should expect and how they should prepare.
Family wealth has emerged as the financial-industry topic of this decade, akin to what estate planning was in the ‘70s, investment planning in the ‘80s, financial planning in the ‘90s, and wealth management in the ‘00s. Today family wealth advisors serve 35,000 households that all together account for more than $5 trillion in assets.
When building a portfolio, investors will often look at a stock’s valuation to determine whether or not it is a good investment.
As I’ve previously written, I had the opportunity to visit South Africa recently and meet with a number of executives at companies there, as well as talk to people and observe various trends.
Just as I do with the economy, I review the market each month for warning signs of trouble in the near future. Although valuations are now high—a noted risk factor in past bear markets—markets can stay expensive (or get much more expensive) for years and years, which doesn’t give us much to go on timing-wise.
In this month’s Global Economic Perspective, Franklin Templeton Fixed Income Group weighs in on the factors spurring the US Fed’s decision to raise rates, why the ECB’s Draghi is likely to resist calls to adopt a more hawkish line, and why the backdrop for emerging markets has improved.
Prior to seasonal adjustment, the U.S. economy added more than a million jobs in February (unadjusted payrolls rose by 831,000 in February 2016 and by 832,000 in February 2015).
This article will limit itself to a specific component of yet another boom – the boom in the involvement of PhDs and quants in financial markets and the newly discovered quality factor.
When robots and automation have taken over not only the agriculture and manufacturing jobs but even the high-level service jobs, who will drive consumption? Will the economy stagnate? These are the questions posed by Martin Ford in his challenging, important and well-researched book, Rise of the Robots: Technology and the Threat of a Jobless Future.
During the later part of the roaring 20’s, Irving Berlin wrote “Blue Skies,” which captured some of the optimism of the era that preceded the Great Depression. Unfortunately, untethered optimism is not the friend of investors, particularly when they have already committed their assets to that optimism, and have driven valuations to speculative extremes.
If America wants to restore manufacturing employment to its former glory, the federal government should form a search-and-destroy task force with the authority to enter manufacturing facilities in the U.S. to smash robots, computers and any other labor-saving equipment the deputized task force deems appropriate. Then there will be a tremendous increase in demand for U.S. manufacturing employees.
