Heading into 2024, most economists and market analysts have adopted a baseline scenario in which most major economies avoid both a recession and renewed inflation – the much-desired "soft landing." But the current encouraging consensus could still be derailed by any number of factors, not least geopolitics.
The prevailing consensus in 2024 is that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates. But predicting central bank moves is an inexact science. That said, fixed income investors could use the help of an active strategy to continue extracting higher yields.
Should retail investors partake of the very attractive yields promised by private credit fund managers?
Traders betting on a 2024 bond rally are unfazed by the recent pullback, seeing it as a chance to seize on elevated yields before the Federal Reserve starts driving down interest rates.
Municipal Bond Strategist Jim Grabovac looks at how the municipal bond market wrapped up 2023 and shares his expectations for the year ahead.
It’s forecast season again, the time when people like me tell people like you what will happen this year. Sadly, we are often wrong.
The U.S. is adding new renewable energy capacity at a record clip, but that doesn’t mean it’s ready to quit fossil fuels just yet.
Bill Harnisch, whose $1.5 billion hedge fund delivered a market-beating 31% gain last year, is betting the recent bout of euphoric stock buying will peter out.
Private credit has in a little more than a decade evolved from a niche asset class to a key component of a diversified investment portfolio. We think it will be even more important in 2024 as banks’ reluctance to lend widens the opportunity set for investors.
The long-awaited recession never materialized in 2023 as the sectors of the economy rotated from hot (i.e., travel and leisure) to cold (i.e., housing) over the last few years.
Bond yields are up—that’s good news for income investors, but secular forces still pose headwinds for inflation-adjusted returns. We think an efficient way to generate income is by carefully assembling mixes of interest-rate and credit building blocks—and incorporating private-market exposure for additional diversification and return potential.
There’s no room for double-digit gains again. With less upside expected for global stocks this year than in 2023, Citigroup Inc. strategists say buy at times of weakness and don’t chase rallies.
Dueling economic reports whiplashed bond markets on Friday — for all the wrong reasons.
We think 2023 stressed the value of adapting to a new volatile macro regime and leveraging investment insight and structural forces to find opportunities.
US job growth picked up in December and wage gains exceeded expectations, diminishing prospects for a Federal Reserve interest-rate cut in March.
AlphaSimplex Group’s Kathryn Kaminski says her firm closed out a more than two-year short bet against US bonds, with its model signaling that it’s starting to become a time to buy as the market emerges from its worst rout in decades.
The S&P 500 reversed its 2022 losses, and then some, closing the year near a record high.
It’s hard to chart a course through equity markets in times of uncertainty. Here are our thoughts on some of the big questions on investors’ minds today.
Cathie Wood has started buying Tesla Inc. shares after selling them for most of last year. Her purchases come at a time when Wall Street’s outlook on the electric vehicle maker is darkening rapidly.
Welcome to 2024! As we wade into the new year, you will undoubtedly read and hear a wide range of forecasts predicting what financial markets are going to bring us over the next 12 months.
One often-made argument in favor of stocks says investors should dive in before roughly $6 trillion of money-market cash gets redeployed into equity assets globally.
Traders hoping that a pan-markets year-end rally would pick up where it left off got the opposite on 2024’s first trading day, a session that featured one of the worst-ever concerted drops in stocks and bonds to start a year.
Enthusiasm for Japanese equities picked up in 2023 as evidenced by the 28% rally in the TOPIX (local) index through November.
Our current 10-year outlook highlights better opportunities for cash and bonds, primarily driven by higher starting yields, and a steady outlook for stocks.
Exploring sustainable investing complexities, this piece categorizes ESG into screening, integration, thematic investing, stewardship, and impact. Despite conflicting reports, ESG-labeled bond funds have thrived, reaching $900.5 billion in assets. Their premium indicates robust demand, countering decline narratives and underscoring continued vitality in fixed-income sustainable investing.
The surge in consumer prices that drove inflation way past central banker’s targets in recent years triggered a wave of interest-rate hikes.
One of the big surprises of 2023 was the resurgence of US growth stocks. The tech-heavy S&P 500 Growth Index outpaced its counterpart Value Index by 7.82 percentage points last year, including dividends, after trailing it badly in 2022.
The US Treasury market posted its first annual gain since 2020 as slowing growth and inflation bolstered views that the Federal Reserve’s campaign of interest-rate increases is likely over.
Banks that rely heavily on lending products for revenue have been hit by higher interest rates. But capital markets expect rate cuts in 2024. That could give bullish vibes for regional banks.
The strongest stock market returns in the coming decade, perhaps longer, are likely to emerge during advances in the S&P 500 that attempt to catch up with the cumulative return of risk-free Treasury bills.
The tide has turned for bonds. Here’s what we think is in store for 2024.
Tweedy Browne is one of the most respected value managers. In this wide-ranging interview with its investment team, they explain why the opportunity set they are seeing among stocks is the best in 20-plus years.
With only a week remaining to 2023, the stock market is poised to end the year up a respectable 25% or more. That’s despite a number of significant hurdles, from multiyear-high interest rates to ongoing fighting in Ukraine and the Middle East.
From the banking crisis to the U.S. debt-ceiling saga, from inflation concerns to recession fears, from soaring bond yields to slowing consumer spending, 2023 had no shortage of issues for investors to worry about.
Ever since the world was hit by a once-in-a-century pandemic, there’s been a lot of talk about “normalization.”
A year of significant monetary policy tightening is coming to a close, making Franklin Templeton Fixed Income optimistic about muni bonds in the year ahead. Get the team’s 2024 muni-bond outlook.
All across Wall Street, on equities desks and bond desks, at giant firms and niche outfits, the mood was glum. It was the end of 2022 and everyone, it seemed, was game-planning for the recession they were convinced was coming.
As we near the end of 2023, Head of Franklin Institute Stephen Dover reviews how his forecasts for the year panned out and shares the themes his team is watching out for in 2024.
Albert Edwards, Societe Generale SA's chief global strategist, hasn't been the top-ranked Extel survey macro analyst for the past 20 years because he's an optimist.
Very early this year our economics team got a pleasant surprise: Consensus Economics, which collects forecasts from roughly 200 economists around the world, rated us the most accurate forecasters of the United States for 2022, based on our forecasts for GDP and CPI. Unfortunately, we don’t expect a repeat award for 2023.
“I believe the overall market will be up 10% to 15% from today's level by the end of 2024,” said Jeremy Siegel in our annual interview.
The market has been indecisive but with reason. 2023 has been filled with strong opinions however, many of the opinions are of contrasting beliefs. Reading the future is not easy.
Equity markets are on track for a strong finish to the year, powered by mega-cap growth stocks — the equity MVPs of 2023.
In this video, Chuck Carnevale, Co-Founder of FAST Graphs, a.k.a. Mr. Valuation, will analyze the investment potential of various Energy Sector companies.
Bond markets expect more cuts than the Fed is signaling, and this expectation largely reflects a return to pre-COVID dynamics of low inflation, massive central bank support, and suppressed term premia.
While 2022 was a brutal year for bonds, fixed income enjoyed many tailwinds this year, from high interest rates to lowered inflation to a less volatile economy. This made 2023 the year for fixed income. And in particular, it was a good year for Vanguard.
CIO designate Sean Taylor discusses his investment outlook for the year ahead and how he sees 2024 unfolding for emerging markets, regionally, economically and thematically.
A small cadre of Wall Street economists who’ve been surprised by the economy’s resilience in 2023 are doubling down on expecting pain for American households and businesses in the new year.
Even before the Federal Reserve has begun cutting interest rates, the mere anticipation of such moves is already thawing the US housing market.
Kathlyn Collins, Head of Responsible Investment and Stewardship, says a renewed purpose among regulators and pressure from investors is yielding breakthroughs in the governance and the capital efficiency of Japan’s-listed companies.
