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On My Radar: El-Erian’s 2016 Outlook & The T Junction
I spent a few days earlier in the week in Scottsdale, Arizona. I was invited to present on portfolio positioning and best execution at the 20th annual IMN Global Indexing and ETF Conference. One of the big highlights for me was El-Erian’s keynote presentation.
Today, I share with you my notes from El-Erian’s speech. He is humble, balanced and brilliant. I have listened to my recording of his presentation several times. Stop-start-rewind-replay-rinse-repeat. Fun for me and well worth the effort.
In short, he puts the odds for a good outcome at 50/50 saying he, “hates to say that."
George Friedman’s World of Geopolitics
by John Mauldin of Mauldin Economics,
In today’s letter, I have transcribed a conversation George Friedman and I had a few days ago. In it, we talk about how our new joint effort came about and why George has left Stratfor to create his new firm, Geopolitical Futures.
China Takes a Big Step Forward
by John Browne of Euro Pacific Capital,
On November 30th the International Monetary Fund (IMF) announced that it would admit China’s Renminbi currency, commonly known as the Yuan, to the select basket of reserve currencies that make up its Special Drawing Rights (SDR’s). Having been stalled by U.S. influence for many years, the long-awaited IMF decision acknowledges the massive transfer of financial power from the old West to the new East. The move heralds an era of potentially great change with global implications for politics, economics and investments.
Eurozone 2016 Economic and Capital Market Outlook
Six years after the financial crisis, the Eurozone continues to face major challenges in restoring economic growth. Our investment thesis has been that the structural problems facing the European Union are real impediments to sustained economic growth and until they are addressed, sustained growth is elusive. While that does not mean that there are not investment opportunities in Europe, it does mean that as one of three major capital markets in the world, investors need to be careful.
Why Getting Valuation Right Is So Important To Retired Dividend Growth Investors
by Chuck Carnevale of F.A.S.T. Graphs,
Although getting valuation right before you buy a stock is critically important to the long-term oriented retired dividend growth investor, it is not a short-term market timing concept. My point is that short-term market movements are typically volatile and unpredictable. The reason is simple. Over short periods of time, which I define as less than a business cycle (3- 5 years), emotion has a major effect on stock prices.
2016: The Fed Acts? Consumers Spend? Inflation Returns? Possible Economic Impacts?
The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets on December 15-16 to consider, among other issues, raising the Federal funds rate. Even the man-on-the-moon, or out of respect to today’s sensitivities—the person-on-the-moon, waits with great anticipation for this well telegraphed decision. The publicity surrounding this decision over the last year seems similar to the noise surrounding Y2K—perhaps with the same muted reaction.
An End-of-Year Marketing Checklist
by Crystal Butler,
While you are scrambling to finish the last quarter’s tasks that may have gotten lost in the wrapping paper, I want to make sure you do not forget anything that will make 2016 your best year ever. Here is a checklist to make your marketing is as impactful as possible.
An Evolving Investment Landscape May Benefit Equities
Equity markets were volatile last week, losing ground early before rebounding.
Sentiment soured over a more modest easing announcement than expected
by the European Central Bank (ECB). OPEC’s decision to leave oil production
unchanged triggered a drop in energy prices, which also acted as a drag on
equities. Additionally, a weak manufacturing report contributed to the gloomy
tone. However, a strong jobs report on Friday seemed to pave the way for the
Fed to raise rates this month and allowed equity prices to rally strongly.
The Evolution of IS
An IS affiliate downed a Russian flight in October. In November, IS-affiliated terrorists launched a series of attacks in Paris. These two events suggest a significant change in IS’s behavior. Prior to the Paris attacks, IS appeared focused on building a caliphate in Syria and Iraq. The shift to terrorist acts suggests a new strategy. In this report, we recap the strategies radical jihadists have employed against the West, highlighting the differences between al Qaeda and IS.
More Money Has Been Lost Reaching for Yield than at the Point of a Gun
by Jeffrey Saut of Raymond James,
A schizophrenic week, indeed, with a ~10 point loss for the S&P 500 (SPX/2091.69) on Monday followed by a 22 point pop on Tuesday and then 23 point decline on Wednesday and 30 point loss on Thursday, capped by Friday’s 42 point rally.
You Have Questions, I Have Answers
by John Mauldin of Mauldin Economics,
Rather than dive deeply into a single topic today, I will weigh in on some of the week’s top financial stories. I recently did a webinar debate with my friend Frank Trotter, hosted by Robert Huebscher of Advisor Perspectives, on whether the Fed should raise rates in December. I argued they should, for reasons I’ve written about before, so we won’t go into that. But we did get a number of incisive, timely questions during and after the webinar. I will try to answer most of them in this letter.
Sweden Declares War on Cash, Punishes Savers with Negative Interest Ratesy Market Summary
Among the endangered species in Sweden are the gray wolf, European otter—and cash. Back in June, I shared with you the story of how, in 1661, the Scandinavian monarchy became the first country in the world to issue paper money. (It was an unmitigated disaster, by the way.) Now it might be the first to ban it altogether.
A Vote of Confidence for the RMB
by Wei Zhang of Matthews Asia,
On November 30, 2015, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) announced its decision to add the Chinese renminbi (RMB) to the basket of currencies that make up the Special Drawing Right (SDR). The IMF SDR basket inclusion criteria—last updated in 2000—requires that the SDR basket comprise currencies whose exports of goods and services had the largest value over a five-year period, and have been determined by the IMF to be “freely usable.” The Chinese RMB has long met the first criteria of a currency whose exports of goods and services play a central role in global trade.
From Brutish to a Brouhaha: Shifting Winds and the Demographic Payback
by Michael Aked of Research Affiliates,
Continued pension reform inaction combined with a falling worker-to-retiree support ratio is leading to an inevitable economic and social clash between employees, employers, and their governments.
Breaking News!
Tired of reading about the Kardashians? Sick of
egocentric politicians? Disgusted with endless war in
the Middle East? Getting bored reading these monthly
Outlooks? (not that bored or you wouldn’t be reading
this). Here’s some “breaking news” that I find really
interesting and I hope you will too. It’s a recent summary
of some things that scientists have discovered over the
last few decades. Prepare to be amazed.
Quantitative Easing: Draghi and the ECB Opt for Moderate Approach
So the divergence of central banks continues. On Dec. 3 the European Central Bank (ECB) took the widely anticipated step of providing more stimulus to the European economy. It’s the first move in a December pas de deux that we expect will include a hike in U.S. interest rates after the Dec. 15-16 meeting of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s (the Fed) Federal Open Market Committee.
Yuan Becomes Reserve Currency
This post is a follow-up of sorts to one I wrote a couple of weeks ago, “U.S. Dollar Still Failing to Collapse.” As expected, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) decided to add (as of next October) the Chinese currency to the list of reserve currencies. Also as expected, the world is not ending just yet.
Weighing the Week Ahead: Will the Fed be Data Dependent?
Back from a quiet, holiday-shortened week, market participants face an avalanche of data and plenty of FedSpeak. This is an irresistible combination for pundits, who will parse each economic report with emphasis on what it might mean for the Fed. In light of many Fed promises, they will all be asking:
Will the Fed really be data dependent?
Why Argentina's New Leader Is Good for Latin America and Global Investors
This week, Argentina said no, gracias to further leftist rule when it elected conservative businessman and two-term Buenos Aires mayor Mauricio Macri to succeed Cristina Fernández de Kirchner as president. It was an upset victory for the people of Argentina, who have seen their once-prosperous nation deteriorate under decades of Marxist policies. It was also a strong win for investors around the globe. Not since Narendra Modi's election last year has a leader's entry on the world stage inspired such bullishness.
Thanksgiving amid the Threats
by John Mauldin of Mauldin Economics,
For today, in this week’s letter, I’m going to let other people do most of the talking. I gave you my own thoughts on the Paris attacks and Europe’s future last week in “The Economic Impact of Evil.” Today I’ll share some of the most interesting post-Paris analysis that has crossed my path over the last two weeks.
Innovation and Scotch Tape
In business and economics, a “first-mover advantage” is defined as the benefit accrued to a company whose product is the first to enter a market. These products often create or define an entirely new market opportunity that the world hadn’t known before. Some “first-mover” examples have created very attractive long-duration opportunities. EBAY (EBAY), a company we own in our portfolios, was the first online auction service. It has maintained leadership in that area for the last two decades.
How to Develop a Growth Game Plan
by Kristen Luke,
Growth. When you’re a financial planning or wealth management firm, how do you do it right? From implementing a precise, uniform sales process to creating an annual marketing strategy, you need something – a game plan – that shows how you should grow and when you’ve actually succeeded.
Quantitative Tightening
In the last 15 years, emerging economy central banks have been busy accumulating forex reserves to build a buffer against external shocks after having learnt their lessons in the Asian financial crisis, adding more than $10tn in this period. The swing in global foreign exchange reserves is one key measure of the global liquidity tap flow. However, we are witnessing a reversal of reserve accumulation, something last seen at the height of the global financial crisis for a brief while.
On My Radar: Global Recession a High Probability
“I have long made the claim that the transnational nature of Europe cannot be sustained. The divergent economic interests of EU countries, some with unemployment over 20 percent, some with it under 5 percent, meant that it was impossible for all of them to live not only under the same monetary regime, but under the same trade regime, which we cannot call free trade with agriculture, among other things, being protected. This would lead to a focus on national interest and on a resurrected nation-state.”
-George Friedman
International Economic Week in Review; Bearish Tenor is Growing, Edition
by Hale Stewart,
The news continues to move in a bearish direction. Although the UK and Australia are in decent economic shape, neither country is setting growth records. And on the bearish side, Mario Draghi stated the EU recovery is weak and may need additional stimulus while Japan entered a technical recession for the second time in two years. And all this is occurring at time when the global growth juggernaut of China is slowing. Overall, the scales appear to be more and more tipped in a bearish direction.
The Economic Impact of Evil
by John Mauldin of Mauldin Economics,
Terrorism is global. So is the economy. We can’t separate them. I’m sure you have spent time reading about the reaction to the terrorist attacks in Paris. I have been reading and thinking a great deal about the effects of recent events on the European Union. Much of what I’ve read seems to miss what I think is the larger context and what may be the real longer-term economic and geopolitical implications of these attacks.
Weekly Market Summary
by Urban Carmel of The Fat Pitch,
The trend is up: equities ended the week about 1% from their highs. Breadth is improving and outperformance from small caps will further bolster participation. Sentiment remains a tailwind, especially for US equities. There's no compelling short term edge, but further upside into year end remains the most likely outcome. Equities have a tendency to give a good entry on weakness during the next 6 weeks; that would likely provide attractive upside potential into year-end.
What We’re Paying Attention to Following the Paris Attacks
A week ago today, 129 lives were brutally cut short when assailants affiliated with the terrorist group ISIS, also known as the Islamic State, stormed Paris in a series of coordinated attacks. Along with the rest of the world, we were shocked and saddened as the tragic news unfolded, worsening as the night progressed. Our thoughts are with the victims’ families and friends.
International Equity Commentary: October 2015
by Team of Thomas White International,
International equity prices rebounded strongly during the month of October as fears about a further growth slowdown in China faded and the U.S. Federal Reserve appeared willing to delay its rate hike until early next year. While exports from the country remain weak, domestic demand in China has so far remained resilient.
Southern Company: Invest While the Yield Is Still High
by Chuck Carnevale of F.A.S.T. Graphs,
In consideration of today’s low interest rate environment, fixed income securities offer little in the way of return. Moreover, the safety characteristics normally associated with fixed income are also potentially upside down. Since early 1982, the interest rates available with fixed income have been in a continuous freefall. This has presented both good and bad news for the conservative investor desirous of a high and safe income stream on their portfolios.
Global Economic Perspective: November
While China’s manufacturing sector—which drove China’s rise to its place as the world’s second-largest economy—has been losing steam, it is being supplanted by a domestic, consumer-led economy propelled by a rising middle class with growing income. Other Asian countries are on a similar trajectory.
Results 7,451–7,500
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