With a steady repricing of global bond markets having contributed to a sharp plunge in global stock markets, there could be a whiff of a new era in the air.

Global equity markets are still hurting from last week’s sell-off. Yet the renewed volatility could mark a return to reality after an unusually long period of steady gains and may even foster a healthier investing environment over time.

One of my big risk concerns is the unknown amount of money in the risk parity trade. Essentially, volatility drives the weighting decisions. If equity market vol is low, then equities get a weighting. If equity market vol picks up, then, by rule, the risk parity strategies rebalance their exposures… in this case, reduce equity market exposure. They are mathematically-driven strategies and all essentially use very similar volatility measurements.

In a record-breaking sprint from all-time highs to an “official” correction, the “short vol” trade unwinding exacerbates an initially fundamentals-driven decline.

So most know we took one of our South Florida speaking tours last week. Such tours consist of meeting with portfolio managers, presentations to clients of Raymond James, branch visits with our financial advisors, doing the media thing, well you get the idea.

PIMCO takes a long-term view of markets and economies, one that anchors investment decisions during shorter-term periods of market volatility. Nonetheless, the dramatic return of market volatility has understandably unnerved many investors.

Should investors worry about the recent rise in US Treasury yields? If they’re high-frequency bond traders—maybe. But for income-oriented investors with a longer investment horizon, our advice is simple: relax.

We expect US interest rates to be range-bound in the first half of 2018, but with a risk of higher yields in the second half. Our rates view is driven by our analysis of growth, inflation and monetary policy in the US and globally.

The economic calendar is heavy. In the battle of competing explanations for the market declines, the inflation story has taken center stage. With both PPI and CPI scheduled for release this week, I expect many to be asking: Will rising inflation spark another leg down for bonds and stocks?

Investors worried about wage and inflation data should appreciate the underlying strength of the economy, not to mention strong corporate earnings. The market volatility is creating better entry points for longer-term investors.

A monthly review of market-moving events across countries and asset classes, and what investors can expect going forward.

The tremors that have battered financial markets recently have been nerve-wracking. But remember, the market is not the economy. Economic growth can persist even when markets decline, and that growth can eventually help to stop the slide.

Prior falls like the one suffered over the past two weeks have led to quick recoveries. That likelihood is further supported by a washout in breadth, volatility and several measures of sentiment. Moreover, the fundamental backdrop remains excellent. Risk/reward is heavily biased towards upside in the near term.

Last week’s turbulence shined a harsh spotlight on the stock market. Appropriately so, if that’s where your investments are. But in the hubbub many investors are missing the deeper and far more urgent bond market issues.

It is said we should be careful what we wish for, because we just might get it. Beginning late last week, stocks finally stepped back. Market declines of 5% and even 10% occur with some regularity, even in the midst of long bull intervals

Today I’d like to share a few words about the Olympics, but first, two words: Don’t panic.

Some investors aren’t very concerned about Fed policy and rising US interest rates. That’s because history has shown that emerging-market debt frequently posts positive returns even when US bond yields rise.

It has been a long time since we had something that resembles normal interest rates and normal economics. Some even called the financial environment we live in as the “New Normal”. Retirees and savers have suffered the most during this prolonged low rate period.

We believe that a multi-asset investing approach is instrumental to navigating today’s market volatility. Here’s how it’s working for us.

It seems that after years of expecting inflation to rise to its 2.0% target the Federal Reserve and many
economists have concluded it’s just not possible. The reasons most often cited are the Amazon Affect,
Artificial Intelligence, weak wage growth, years of excess capacity, and transitory factors like the mobile phone price war in March 2017.

Last week, Treasury announced that it expects to borrow $617 billion in the first half of 2018, vs. $75 billion in the first two quarters of 2017, and announced increases in the sizes of its regular monthly auctions of notes and bonds. It should then be no surprise why bond yields are rising.

Monday’s monster stock selloff is exhibit A for why I frequently recommend a 10 percent weighting in gold, with 5 percent in bullion and jewelry, the other 5 percent in high-quality gold stocks, mutual funds and ETFs.

We believe Monday’s stock market pullback was likely driven by concerns over valuations, rather than fears of a recession. Here’s why.

For several years, the U.S. economy has produced a “Goldilocks” combination (neither too hot nor too cold) of solid growth with limited inflation. The absence of price pressures, even at very low levels of unemployment, has surprised many observers.

Value in Short-Term Bonds: The sharp rise in short-term rates in 2017 has created attractive valuations on the front end of the investment-grade curve. If the curve could speak, almost certainly the shorter maturities would now be shouting, Look at me---look at me! Not since fall 2008 have investors been able to earn 2.0% or more on high-quality, short-term bonds such as 2-year Treasury notes.

While investors are justifiably focused on what may be the opening crescendo of a long overdue sell-off in stocks, there is not, as of yet, as feverish a discussion of the parallel sell-offs in bonds and the U.S. dollar, which have been underway for at least a year and a half in bonds and 14 months for the dollar.

We have long been big fans of the books about Sherlock Holmes ever since our misbegotten youth. Strangely enough, being a strategist/analyst is much like being a detective. One has to gather the evidence, pour through it, decipher it, eliminate the “noise,” and come to a conclusion that tips the odds of making money in our favor.

Parsing different yield curve regimes for clues on potential equity returns.

GDP growth slowed in the fourth quarter to 1.9% down from 3.5% in the third quarter. Both numbers were skewed by trade data. Third quarter GDP was lifted by .7% from the export of soybeans to South America, while imports shaved -1.7% from fourth quarter GDP.

After a fantastic year, concerns are growing about a potential downturn in the stock markets. At times like these, it’s especially important to focus on investing strategies that can deliver a smoother pattern of long-term returns.

Rarely do we move directly from boom to bust; but when the shift comes, it can develop quite quickly, even though the transition isn’t usually obvious in real time. As I look at the data and talk to my contacts, I’m beginning to conclude that we’re approaching one of those transitional phases. I think we’ll look back at 2018 as an in-between year… from good times to something eventually not so good.

Given the events of a decade ago, 2018 promises to be a year filled with reminiscence. Chroniclers will recall the signs of the gathering storm: falling U.S. house prices, rising mortgage defaults and spreading institutional failures.

The macro data from the past month continues to mostly point to positive growth. On balance, the evidence suggests the imminent onset of a recession is unlikely.

Sir Isaac Newton’s magnum opus, Mathematical Principals of Natural Philosophy, established the laws of motion and universal gravitation which underpinned how scientists thought about the physical universe for centuries. Newton did not cover the laws of financial gravitation, which appeared not to apply in 2017 as the stock market soared to another 22% return...

Earlier this month, the Loomis Sayles sector teams published their 2018 outlook. Here's a snapshot of what our bank loans sector team is anticipating this year.

We expect policy will continue to drive municipal bond markets in 2018, if more constructively than in 2017. Municipal investors may remember 2017 as the year of unrealized policy fear. While the threat of tax reform and its potential to reduce the value of the muni exemption for retail investors ­loomed large, ultimately it had little impact on individual municipal bonds.

In his best-selling book “One up on Wall Street” Peter Lynch included this subtitle on his cover: “How to use what you already know to make money in the stock market.” And later in the book he talks about “the power of common knowledge.” Stating it over simplistically, Peter Lynch often talked about getting his best ideas from observing his family’s shopping habits.

Market conditions may change in 2018, and that’s good for income-oriented investors. Yes, interest rates are rising and some assets look expensive. But there are still plenty of horses to ride in this race.

With a hint of volatility returning to the stock market this week, we though it good timing to review some of the market-based indicators we follow that help us judge the sturdiness of the market. This is by no means an exhaustive list, but rather a few items to consider when evaluating whether pullbacks are for buying or selling.

There is an old saying on Wall Street that the markets climb a “Wall of Worry.” The past quarter and year certainly had several concerns, but the markets continued higher and finished the year at all-time highs.

“You’ve Got Mail” is a 1998 romantic comedy-drama starring Meg Ryan and Tom Hanks. The film is about two people involved in an online romance who are unaware that they are also business rivals. In this morning missive, however, we are not referring to the movie, but rather some recent emails we have received.

Fake news. It’s pervasive these days. And it’s no longer exclusively a problem for politicians, journalists and Facebook. It’s made its way into the capital markets too, particularly in areas of major global economic and financial impact.

For fixed income investors eyeing opportunities in Europe, 2018 should be the year economic fundamentals reassert their worth, according to David Zahn, Franklin Templeton’s head of European Fixed Income. Nonetheless, Zahn believes many investors are underappreciating the long-term implications for Europe of the biggest political uncertainty for the region—Brexit.

This paper explores why real returns have stayed persistently low in recent years and why they may continue to stay low for the foreseeable future.

We are at an interesting point in this economic and capital market adventure we have been through for almost ten years. We hesitate to use the word “cycle” because that implies that economic activity, measured by the output of our country, and in turn the capital markets, would actually turn down.

US equities have already gained more in the first few weeks of January than they do in many full years. The recent trend is being termed unprecedented, but these types of gains have happened before. The current trend is also being called unsustainable, but in most prior cases, equities have continued higher.

Conferences can be great fun and the final evening usually ends with a gathering at the hotel bar. This year’s Inside ETFs Conference ended with a bang for me. Sitting outside on a couch, 72 degrees, clear sky and comfortably positioned between the hotel bar, pool and ocean, daughter, Brianna, snuck up on me and grabbed the wine from my hand.

Disruption was definitely top of mind during many of the presentations and interviews at Inside ETFs, including that of producer and composer Quincy Jones, who was at the conference to promote a new stock index that tracks music and entertainment companies

For more than a year, the U.S. Dollar (USD) has been losing value relative to most other currencies. When asked about this trend this week in Davos, U.S. Secretary of the Treasury Steven Mnuchin seemed unconcerned, and even supportive.

Economic recovery is in full swing but investors should remain vigilant of the long-term risks.