Trade, geopolitics, and emerging markets were top of mind at the recent annual meetings
For certain sectors, a change in interest rates has a relatively large impact—and that impact has increased significantly in the “new normal” environment of low interest rates.
It’s easy to get spooked in late-cycle markets. But we think there’s a way to de-risk your portfolio and still generate a decent level of income—no magic spells necessary.
With the latest crisis in Turkey, Turkish equities have come under pressure and Turkish bank stocks are looking cheap. Do they really offer value?
Although the relative performance of the Wasatch investment strategies was mixed during the third quarter — some strategies were a bit ahead of their benchmarks and some were a bit behind— the 2019 year-to-date and longer-term results (i.e., five years) have been exceptional across most of our strategies.
The First Eagle Global Fund (SGENX) reflects the teachings of Benjamin Graham and Warren Buffett. In this interview, the three managers of the fund discuss a number of topics, including why they hold a large position in gold, why the market will favor value investors on a long-term basis and their views of ESG investing in the context of the companies they own.
The economic calendar is a modest one featuring home sales and Michigan sentiment. With the Q3 earnings reporting season in full swing, that news rates to be more important than the economic reports.
I have always loved Boston. My first recollection of the city was when my parents and I used to fly into it spend a night, or two, and then head for our house in Nantucket. Boy, I wish I still had that house. In later life we use to visit the city to see portfolio managers with Fidelity of particular interest.
Last week the Federal Reserve announced the re-commencement of large scale asset purchases in order to alleviate funding pressures that had been bubbling for several months.
Emerging markets equities performance was overwhelmed in the third quarter by macroeconomic factors, but we believe going forward, investors could benefit from favorable fundamentals and loosening central bank policies.
Negative interest rates are nothing short of a mystery; they’re likely to throw off whatever we knew about the financial world and how things worked in the past. With more than $17 trillion of global debt trading at nominal yields below zero — and about double when considering inflation — this phenomenon has prompted differing perspectives about its purpose and consequences. Howard Marks offers his in this memo, in which he discusses why negative rates have become prevalent, what implications they might have, whether they will reach the U.S., and what investors can do as they navigate these uncharted waters.
Against the odds, Boris Johnson’s UK government appears to have agreed to a deal in principle with the European Union (EU) which could see the United Kingdom leave the EU on October 31 in an orderly way.
The fixed income market benefited in the third quarter as both global growth fears and the trade dispute continued to drive uncertainty in financial markets. With Europe remaining in an economic rut and China showing signs of slowing from the protracted trade conflict, investors sought the safety of U.S. Treasuries, pushing up prices and reducing yields.
Early last week, the Chairman announced a new, as yet unnamed, Fed program through which the bank will now buy regular amounts of short-term U.S. government debt. Seeking to counter the rumblings that a new form of quantitative easing would be seen as an admission that the economy may be in trouble...
Several rumblings in the quarter raised concerns about an imminent market crash. Another distinctive possibility is that the bubble of "airy promises" and overly optimistic growth expectations is bursting.
Brian Smedley is head of macroeconomic and investment research at Guggenheim Partners. In this interview, he explains why his team is forecasting a recession in mid-2020 and how advisors should position portfolios in response.
A brief monthly update on what's happening in the municipal bond market.
As we look ahead to the closing months of 2019, most of the year’s volatility drivers remain in place. With that in mind, we believe now may be the time to adopt a more defensive posture without deviating from your long-term strategic asset allocation.
As economic cycles enter their later stages, investors sometimes find that they’re taking too much risk to generate income. There’s a strategy that can help—and we think now is the time to use it.
Lon Erickson, CFA, is a portfolio manager and managing director for Thornburg Investment Management and oversees five of its fixed income mutual funds. Erickson says that rates could be as low as 1.1% in the next year, and he explains why a collaborative, bottom-up construction process will benefit advisors and their clients.
Psychology is the reason most investors fail to keep up with the markets, and why contrarian strategies have turned in consistently superior performance over time. This same inability to understand psychology is often why academics don’t incorporate its use and instead stay with what may be flawed modern portfolio theory.
Overall, the economic data released last month came in worse than expected. There was a sharp decline in two of our metrics, consumer confidence and service sector business confidence. Job creation was more mixed, as the pace of new job growth remains below that of 2018 but is still at a level above the trouble zone on a year-to-year basis.
The US-China trade conflict has remained at the forefront of investor concerns in recent months, with both governments imposing tariffs on each other’s goods. While continued tensions are likely to result in continued market volatility, Franklin Templeton Emerging Markets Equity nonetheless finds reasons to be positive about emerging markets, with a more dovish global central bank backdrop offering support.
Welcome to the 8th annual review of the Emerging Markets (EM) fixed income asset class. Using new data from Bank of International Settlements and other sources, we establish that the EM bond market had grown to a size of USD 26.5trn, or 23% of global fixed income at the end of 2018.
A review of last month’s market-moving events across countries and asset classes.
With geopolitical risks rising and the global economy remaining in a soft period, Nikko Asset Management’s Global Investment Committee examines key issues impacting the global markets and where they’re finding overlooked investment opportunities.
Capital-gains-aware strategies significantly improve after-tax returns. Moreover, shunning dividends lowers the pretax expected return of commonly used factor strategies and has little impact on after-tax returns.
As the financial markets enter what I expect to be a rather disruptive completion to the recent speculative half-cycle, it will be helpful for investors to consider certain propositions that are readily available from history, rather than insisting on re-learning them the hard way.
The years leading up to the 2000 stock market bubble were extraordinary and unprecedented. They caused unique pain to the portfolios of valuation-driven investors. The valuation extremes, though, created the greatest opportunity set for valuation-driven investors since the Great Depression.
The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for U.S. economic growth, inflation, unemployment and interest rates.
Yields have declined sharply over the course of the year. The 10-year yield has dropped about 100 basis points; the 30-year about 80 basis points; and short-term rates are down about 50 basis points. Can rates go any lower? How should advisors position their clients in this environment?
Once again, U.S. consumers are keeping the global economy out of the abyss. Russ discusses why.
Despite the municipal market’s strong year-to-date rally, an aging US expansion and low yields continue to top municipal investors’ concerns as we enter the home stretch of 2019. When conditions are evolving and visibility is limited, active and flexible strategies can help balance risk and reward.
Global stocks advanced in the third quarter, but investor sentiment wobbled amid puzzling signals on macroeconomic growth and monetary policy. Political uncertainty and a cloudier outlook point to more volatility, which should compel investors to intensify their focus on stock fundamentals.
It is useful to focus on the performance of reverse mortgage LOCs, as one would for any financial investment.
Acknowledging that losses are part of business is one thing; taking and accepting those losses in the markets is something else entirely.
The ISM Manufacturing Index fell further into contraction in September, while the Non-Manufacturing Index slowed (consistent with a continued expansion in the overall economy, but at a slower pace). The Employment Report was a mixed bag. Nonfarm payrolls rose by 136,000 in the initial estimate for September, with a net upward revision of +45,000 to July and August.
In this issue, Research Affiliates discusses why its contrarian philosophy may add value over the long term and how the growing likelihood of a global economic slowdown is affecting positioning.
In the past three years, oil and gas discoveries made by conventional means have fallen to an incredible seven-decade low. What’s more, a “significant rebound is not expected,” says IHS Markit. Find out what’s driving discoveries lower!
Unfortunately, my good news is also bad news for younger Americans, who won’t get nearly as much as my age cohort is collecting. Worse, they could actually see negative real returns despite having paid proportionally more into the system. In investment terms, they are getting screwed.
On the 80th anniversary of the iconic movie’s release, CIO Larry Adam draws parallels between the film’s themes and today’s financial markets.
The fourth quarter of 2019 kicked off with a market selloff and more evidence that a protectionist push is hitting the U.S. industrial sector. How are our asset views faring this year to date–and what are the key themes we see shaping markets in the months ahead?
U.S. stocks plunged Wednesday, as weak economic data rattled investors. Here’s what you should know.
It has been a good year for U.S. investors. The global economic slowdown and geopolitical turmoil created a nearly irreversible thirst for super safe assets...
The art and practice of picking individual municipal bonds can be a lot like picking apples. Finding great values or a real gem is primarily a function of market conditions and variety.
With $13 trillion of investment grade corporate and government bonds having negative yields, fixed income investors are increasingly looking at higher yielding emerging market debt.
Elga explains why we see a growth pickup looming on the horizon. Hint: Watch the transmission of financial conditions.
Though many market-influencing variables remain in play, the S&P 500 neared all-time high levels in September.
Bouts of volatility hit markets across the globe in the third quarter of 2019 amid continued uncertainties about global growth and trade. Central banks took notice, with the US Federal Reserve easing interest rates for the first time in more than a decade and the European Central Bank also cutting rates and reintroducing quantitative easing.
History shows that presidential impeachments have had minimal impact on markets. We believe there are bigger risks to consider, including a potential German recession and record global debt. Against this background, gold can help improve a portfolio’s risk-adjusted returns.
