An Established Case and Emerging Trends for Frontier Markets Equity Investing
The terminology ‘Frontier Markets’ inspires images of exotic geographies, colourful politics and investor adventurism.
The USD Bear Trap and EM USD Debt
Even though the medium-to-long term US Dollar fundamentals remain unimpressive, due to a combination of large external imbalances, a continuous dependence on foreign investors’ inflows and the weaponisation of the currency, the Dollar became the least bad currency in G4 since the beginning of the Ukraine war
The Case For EM In A Multipolar World
The Russian invasion of Ukraine is a shock to the existing world order. From an economic perspective, the initial impact of the war is rising inflation given the importance of Russia and Ukraine in the supply of commodities to the world.
Equity Outlook 2022: Emerging Markets
Emerging Markets (EM) have demonstrated their resilience during the greatest economic shock since the Global Financial Crisis.
Four Mega-Trends Shaping the 2022 Outlook and Beyond
The global macro environment is ripe for EM assets outperformance as a combination of stronger growth in China, the end of exceptionalism in the US and less uncertainty on US interest rates, lead to a strong backdrop for EM assets.
A Consolidation Path for Chinese Property
Chinese property markets are going through a significant slowdown that began in Q2 2021. The average slowdown in the previous episodes over the last 20 years lasted four quarters.
Living With Inflation: A New Macroeconomic Regime
The fiscal and monetary policy responses to the Covid-19 shock aided demand and allowed for a v-shaped economic recovery starting in 2020. Further fiscal stimulus boosting demand in 2021 were met with supply shocks, bringing US and EU inflation to the highest levels since 2008. Emerging Markets (EM) experienced some inflationary pressures, albeit much more modest than Developed Markets (DM).
China’s new development strategy: greener, less unequal, more sustainable
The country’s leadership has designed a new development model, based on a ‘common prosperity’ philosophy, aimed at modernising the economy by improving the country’s future demographic profile via lowering inequality and promoting sustainable, even if slower, GDP growth which is both less dependent on financial leverage and in harmony with nature.
Measuring EM Stocks’ Undervaluation
What is the degree of Emerging Markets (EM) stocks’ undervaluation relative to United States (US) equities?
Opportunities In Local Currency Assets After The Sharp Dollar Move
The Fed meeting last week led to higher asset price volatility across asset classes.
US Inflation Unlikely to Pose a Serious Threat to EM
Inflation is likely to remain high in 2021. The primary source of price pressures is the rebound in commodity prices after their sharp collapse last year.
Seven Policy Proposals to Meet the Paris Agreement Objectives
The 2015 Paris Agreement introduced the legally binding goal of maintaining the average global temperature below the pre-industrial revolution average plus 2o Celsius in order to avoid severe stress on natural and socioeconomic systems.
EM Is No Longer a Commodity Play
The Emerging Markets (EM) asset class is often labelled a commodity play for investment purposes. The argument is simple and directional; EM countries export commodities, so rising commodity prices are good for the asset class, whereas falling commodity prices hurt EM countries.
Equity Outlook 2021: Emerging Markets
2020 will live long in memory, and so it should. EM have navigated, and in some cases excelled, during the most challenging stress test in recent history. The crisis will ultimately prove temporary, in our opinion, and 2021 is well placed to be a year of recovery.
2021 Outlook: Seven Themes for a Post-Vaccine World
Science is winning the battle against the covid-19 coronavirus. The advance in therapies has already contributed to a significant reduction in hospitalisation and fatality rates vis-à-vis the number of cases, while the multiple of approved and soon to be approved vaccines puts the livelihoods of billions of people on track to normalise in 2021.