Although some on the committee agreed with the market consensus for a moderate continuation of economic growth and equity markets, the majority agreed with a more positive scenario in which the global economy outperforms market consensus, while equities, especially those outside of the US, rally sharply.

For the first time in two years, bond investors are betting that U.S. inflation will average close to 2% per year over the coming decade.

while big, sweeping forecasts are the ones that draw the headlines, the ones to pay attention to are those that only look one to two months ahead or 10 to 20 years ahead.

Ongoing uncertainty around the COVID-19 pandemic has strengthened headwinds to global growth, says Franklin Templeton Investment Solutions CIO Ed Perks. In his 2021 investment outlook, he says nimble and diversified positioning is key to effective investment strategies.

How can credit markets help active investors achieve their goals in the present low yield environment? Here are 5 ideas.

As you mull ordering some last-minute gifts or goodies, chew on this.

This has been a year like no other. Hammered by an unprecedented health crisis, global stocks tumbled into a bear market at record speed, and then rallied to new highs thanks to a flood of central bank money.

Is the 60/40 stock-bond portfolio dead? We don’t think so.

Rick Rieder and team describe how revolutionary changes taking place in corporate business models will impact investing for years.

Templeton Global Macro CIO Michael Hasenstab offers the team’s 2021 outlook.

The year of 2020 was like no other in our lifetimes as a once in a century pandemic shut down the world as we all knew it and the global economy experienced its worst shock since the Great Depression of the 1930s. The stock and bond markets sent investors on a roller-coaster ride. The S&P 500 experienced its fastest 35% decline ever during February and March, only to skyrocket back to all-time highs. Investment--grade and high-yield bonds had a similar experience as credit spreads shot up and back down and Treasury bond yields plummeted to record lows. We also had a presidential election. As this historic year is put into the history books, investors are left to ponder – what should we expect in 2021?

I should start by saying that I’ve got great admiration for Robert Shiller. Even three decades ago when I was completing my doctorate at Stanford, I avidly embraced his work, including his studies on excess volatility. He has originated an impressive range of useful tools, including the Case-Shiller housing price indices. As the tech bubble was peaking in 2000, I doubt that any 30-something in finance was more pleased to see Shiller become a widely-quoted figure in the financial markets. All of that is important to say, before I tear into this particular metric.

After a powerful rally for stocks for much of 2020, let’s take a look at the biggest potential downside risks for investors in the year ahead. While none of these scenarios make our base case for 2021, a review of the top investment risks in greater depth may be prudent as we enter the New Year.

As President-elect Joe Biden looks to pull the economy out of the wreckage caused by the pandemic and onto a sustained path of recovery, his team faces one increasingly big problem: a mountain of corporate debt.

There is strong demand for steady income. However, most investment products and strategies fail dismally in this regard.

Forecasts of 2021 security returns are gaslighting investors into believing the future is bright. But market corrections are highly likely next year.

Cash on the sidelines, pent-up demand and a vaccine in flight. Could it be the makings of a bullish 2021? Get our latest outlook for U.S. stocks.

As the sun sets on one of the most challenging years in memory, many healthcare systems and other types of non-profits find themselves in starkly different financial situations than they were at the start of the year.

To defend soaring equity markets against claims of overinflation, economists often cite a valuation methodology that adjusts stock prices for interest rates. The latest to do it is Jerome Powell.

There is much to debate about the current level of interest rates and future stock market returns. However, what is clear is the 40-year decline in rates did not mitigate two extremely nasty bear markets since 1998, just as falling rates did not mitigate the crash in 1929 and the subsequent depression.

Science is winning the battle against the covid-19 coronavirus. The advance in therapies has already contributed to a significant reduction in hospitalisation and fatality rates vis-à-vis the number of cases, while the multiple of approved and soon to be approved vaccines puts the livelihoods of billions of people on track to normalise in 2021.

With a COVID-19 vaccine rolling out and markets enjoying a post-election relief rally, credit investors may be asking “is there any opportunity left?”

Investors should brace for a deflationary shock that will drive 10-year Treasury yields to zero or below, according to Albert Edwards.

Recent SOE bond defaults signal Beijing’s willingness to let markets price risk more accurately.

The U.S. stock market surged in November, erasing October’s losses even amid a rising number of coronavirus infections. Propelled by progress toward potential coronavirus vaccines and hopes for a relatively smooth transition to power for president-elect Joe Biden, major U.S. equity indices closed the month with double-digit gains.

The issue is that one of our advisors came to the event clearly drunk out of his mind, and another one became very rude, actually using slang terms that were insulting to people on the team and was a bit belligerent.

Is the rotation toward value here to stay? What could stall the economic recovery? In the first in a four-part series of blog posts, we explore the key issues that are likely to impact the investment landscape in 2021.

We believe traditional fixed income should continue to provide a reliable source of diversification against a growth shock, but low rates and the risk of an inflation shock necessitate broadening the menu of diversifiers.

The Treasury market’s bears may find a dose of vindication this week given that the Federal Reserve may disappoint some traders by not tweaking its bond-buying program, which could finally catapult 10-year yields above 1%, even if only briefly.

Of the many tales being told to justify record equity valuations, low interest rates are among the more popular. However, that is only half the story.

Encouraging news about COVID-19 vaccines has boosted hope for stronger economic growth, kicking off a rotation in stocks and equity sectors as investors look to a brighter future. However, near-term volatility is possible, as we’re not yet out of the coronavirus tunnel.

Tailwinds for emerging markets include strong potential for earnings recovery, as well as a weaker U.S. dollar and reasonable equity valuations. Chief Investment Officer Robert Horrocks, PhD, considers the investment landscape in his annual review and outlook.

This week we were privy to both new inflation and initial unemployment claims data. The CPI data revealed a rather mundane inflation scenario. Meanwhile, the weekly initial claims number came in at a whopping 853K and missed estimates by the largest amount since June.

Only complacency and fear of change keep Treasury investors entrenched.

Our 2021 market outlook theme is “restart”, and with a restart comes optimism and the chance to begin anew. There will be volatility and bumps along the way, but for those that are disciplined and able to look past them, we see more opportunities ahead for upside than downside.

Brexit negotiations had another unproductive week. Parcel shipping volumes are breaking records. And when and why might the Fed alter its asset purchases?

Industrial metals are well on their way to being among the top performers of 2020, supported by red hot demand from China and global supply concerns.

Volatility, low rates, and rising risks supported gold’s price and investment demand in 2020, driving it to reach a new all-time high during the year. Despite some moderation on the volatility front post-election, the new year is looking poised to serve up more uncertainty for investors. See how George Milling-Stanley sees the gold market reacting, and what it may mean for gold’s price in 2021.

The fear of inflation in the U.S. is palpable.

In Europe, investors like Alessandro Tentori are starting to say their goodbyes to the region’s bond market, worried that soon there may not be any place left for them.

More than most years, it’s hard to look ahead to the next year, to 2021, without looking back at 2020. A global pandemic, a massive economic collapse, a bear market, a surprisingly sharp reversal, a hotly contested election where passions ran high, the impact of lockdowns—it was an unusual year of extraordinary challenges.

The likelihood of a divided US government removes a major potential headwind to the US economy (that is, higher taxes), and with multiple Covid-19 vaccines showing promise, the US economy may surprise on the upside in 2021.

We highlight the reasons behind our pro-risk stance in our 2021 outlook in the weekly commentary.

We see five independent areas providing evidence of a commodity bull market. They are, commodities themselves, the economy, and the bond, stock and currency markets. Let’s consider them in turn to see if this time commodities can fulfill their promise.

Exchange-traded fund investors are adding to bets that the long-awaited uptick in U.S. inflation is on its way.

Given all the municipal bonds to choose from, how do you decide which ones should make up the core of your portfolio? With $3.7 trillion of muni debt outstanding¹ spread among tens of thousands of issuers, the choice may seem daunting, but we’ll help you break it down.

We anticipate that COVID-19 vaccines and the easing of lockdowns will allow for a return to more normal economic activity by mid-2021.

GMO’s new quarterly letter to clients examines the worst 12-month performance for value stocks in history and explores how investors can profit from a period reminiscent of previous bubbles in global markets.

Some changes unfold over time and it’s possible to see them coming. There are demographic changes coming in the next decade that will change the direction of the U.S., since the Silent generation and the Baby Boomers hold a different view of government than Gen Z’s and Millennials.